Saturday, July 05, 2008


OK, so you can all see the power of Window Dressing now, right? I mean, it's no coincidence that all the stock (most) that were the hottest last quarter have cracked big time the 1st week of the new quarter. All you have to do is look at charts on X, POT, ENER, GDP, etc. etc. etc. and it's easy to see. And, while they haven't exactly lit the world on fire, the financial stocks have held up better than those.

So, where from here? Well, it'll be interesting. The financials should get a further bounce, but obviously that's a tough long to take and hold unless you have the strongest of stomachs. I suspect we get a REALLY nice bounce on the Solars and perhaps the Metals this week at some point. I have to check my earnings calander but I like GDP, and ENER still higher unless we tank harder overall. My suspicion is that we get a bounce first. WE just tested and breached the March lows on everything other than the Russell (how bout our Option Play of the Week Puts on that index! INSANE! Like a triple plus in a week! No biggie, only a 40 point drop for us! Ka-chingo!).

There's a TON of money to be made here folks, if you are just reading I suggest you get on board the Express train from! Sign up for the Ninja service, or Swing Trader or Option Trader services, do yourself a HUGE favor! Now is not the time to sit back and complain, YOU have to get in the game!

In the meantime, the March lows either hold here or we'll see 10,500 area on the DOW in a jiff. IF we break below the March lows and can't reclaim them I would be looking to stay short and ride it down a bit. That would provide a nice risk/reward situation. But, like I said, I can see us bouncing a bit here before rolling back over. I still say we have to get much lower prices, but nothing goes in a straight line and we're traders so we play it both ways.

You saw the action in LEH last week, I just saw headlines today crossing Bloomberg that UBS says they don't need any more money and may even show a profit this quarter. That's why I think the financials should still get a hefty multi day bounce if no bad news comes early this week. If you want to play that then look at the indexes that cover them, BKX and the SKF ETF, or UGY I believe.

OK, more later, hope you are all enjoying your 4th of July weekend! I'll be posting all this week again, I hope, so try not to miss me too much!!!

And, remember - trade 'em, don't marry 'em!

My mantra!


Michael "Waxie" Parness


Jeanne Mancuso said...


Welcome back!!

I was wondering if you use the Hindenburg Omen indicator? I bought Barrons this week and there is a blurb about it. Supposidly the indicator hit twice in June and according to some guy there is a 25% probability of a full-blown stock-market crash in the next 120 days. According to the article, "On its previous 25 confirmed signals, it has a 92% accuracy rating." Apparently you're not the only negative person on the market...maybe the sky is falling. Not very reassuring.


jamesfreddyc said...


Per your previous commentary regarding market bears coming out in full force, are you looking at a technical indicator?

I noticed the ytd chart for SPY, which clearly shows that we are teetering on breaking through a triple-bottom (@ around 126).

I also noticed that we seem to be setting up for another spike in oil, but in comparison to all of the other bubble bursts we've been thru, the oil one seems to be next.