Thursday, June 26, 2008

Ought O Spagetti O'sssssss!

Look, folks. I don't want to say I've told you so. I've warned you, I've begged you - PLEASE SELL YOUR STOCKS!!! PLEASE GET OUT!!! Investors are going to get MURDERED in this market. If you are not heeding it, which is your perogative, then may your financials rest in peace. The DOW will be UNDER 8000, and the Nasdaq will be under 1500 in a land not so far away. In fact, the DOW could see 5000s and the Nasdaq could see under 1000. You need to wake up and smell REALITY. Stop throwing your hard earned money away! Just stop! Sell now and regroup. There are other ways to make big returns in the market. You can try trading with us. You can try Forex, you can try shorting every bounce here. You can try hedging your investments at least to protect yourself! We can teach you all that and more. What we can't teach you is how to not lose money as an investor because if I'm right then this is going to get VERY VERY bloody. VERY. MUCH worse than 2000 to 2003. I expect several LARGE banks to go under. I expect MANY regionals to go under. And, I expect GOOG to see $100s by the time this is over with. Many chided me when I said on National TV and National Radio and in print that oil would be $100 and then $150 that I was crazy, that I was dumb, that I didn't know what I was talking about. The clips, some of them, are on the site in our media center at www.trendfund.com go see for yourself. I hope I am wrong, but I don't think I will be. You want an investment? SKF. Buy that and hold it for a year, I think you'll be quite happy. It should be north of $250. It's the inverse on the financial sector, so its a good way to play that sector short, by buying SKF long. OK, now you want to hear the crazy part of todays blog? I think we will get a HUGE bounce shortly. I'm not calling it here, sorry. My clients pay too much money, so you'll have to join some service to hear it. Hey, maybe it'll be wrong, but I have a sneaky suspicion it won't be. Nothing goes up or down in a straight line. Let me tell you something, over the years my experience is that when GS (Goldman) makes a call like they made today on C, adding it to their conviction sell list (where were they when it was $30s and I said it would be under $10?) there is usually an alterior motive. I have a sneaky suspicion of what that might be, and I plan on playing it pretty strongly soon. If we gap up on no news tomorrow, which we're up on the futures now, it's a pretty safe short, folks. I doubt we're going very far on a Friday after a move like we had today. Better chance we get a further extension down then a huge rally/bounce. But, we'll see. Tiny likes a Bob and Weave day and I agree. I think we fade the intial move, then try to fade it again the other way, and then fade that again. But, if we do get a trend day on no news you'd have to say better shot its down then up, right? Monday we are doing our SMALL CAP MONSTER class. We have 3 new Small Cap Monsters ready to roll out. I think you all should attend the class. I'll post the info here tomorrow, please sign up and get some real solid, in my opinion and though there are no guarantees, some really solid small cap plays! Our 1st Two Small Cap monsters are holding strong and moving higher even in this insane market! Just remember, when the DOW is sitting under 10,000 this year and if you keep investing, just remember who told ya to GET THE FREAK OUT NOW! The worst is yet to come and investors need to wake up and smell the proverbial roses, the coffee pot is boiled over, babies. This sucker is OVERDONE and OVERDUE. Even as I write this the Dow futures are up over 20 pts! Why? Investors die hard, but in this market they will die, I believe. Don't hate me cause I speak the truth, embrace it and learn to earn! Email me if you want to sign up for a service and I'm happy to help you do so. waxie@trendfund.com See ya on the other side, Michael "Waxie" Parness

17 comments:

mendo said...

Hi Waxie: I thoroughly enjoy your blog. I like that you call it as you see it in your blog. I too hope you are wrong, but a least we will be ready to profit from the move if you are right.

Keep up the good work. Mendo

Waxie said...

Mendo,
I try, thanks for reading!

RULE ON!

Glen said...

Hi Waxie,

How are you able to set targets and predictions such as Dow below 5,000? I'm getting whacked in my AAPL investment right now. Was it really you who posted that AAPL is going below $100?

I must say I am truly skeptical about one thing. I know some very wealthy traders and they are ultra protective of their methods and insist they are kept under wraps (as a reference read Ken Fishers new book that says pretty much the same thing). The point of this comment is: If that is the case and you make all this money trading then it makes no sense to me that you would share that knowledge otherwise you lose your edge. Wallstreet has hired the smartest people on the planet to exploit every angle and if your methods have an edge then they would exploit those too and the edge in your method would be nullified.

Please help me to understand where I am incorrect.

Thanks
Glen

Waxie said...

Glen,

you are 100% incorrect. Anyone who says they keep their methods "underwraps" just means they are a bit full of themselves, or they simple, and smartly, want to charge you for their perceived methods.

I don't consider myself a trader. I'm a filmmaker who is like an autistic savant of trading. We all have our "gifts" this is mine. When I became successful as a trader I decided I would "spread the word" and hopefully help others make their way financially and maybe even otherwise. Am I so altruistic that I don't benefit? Of course not. You work, you get paid, that's the way it's supposed to be. I don't have time to be a full time trader, run a business, be a single dad with custody, run a film production company and make my own dreams come true.

Also, it's, no offense to you meant, absurd to think that anyone is so big and powerful that one person, or 25 people's opinions will move the market over the long haul. So, it doesn't matter what I think, only to my clients. AAPL is, to me, one of the most overhyped and ridiculously valued companies out there. Hold it at your own peril.

Yes, it's me making these posts and dare I toot my own horn, I've been DEAD ON. Go read back on all my blogs and watch my TV appearances over the years, I'm usually right. I am very confident in my abilities as a trader, but trading while so distracted could be disasterous for anyone, including me!

And, besides all that, what methods am I giving away? I post my opinions and if you are a paying member I post my trade ideas, you either follow them, ignore them, or fade them even. If I'm right more than wrong you continue listening, if not then you turn me "off".

I think it's funny when I hear people say they have some magic potion. Nothing in life, or trading, is magic. Any magician will tell you it's all an illusion. My "methods" aren't magic, they are merely based on historical patterns that repeat themselves over and over again, and a bit of logic and yes, a bit of intuition. But, intuition isn't magic either, it's just a "gift".

Why am I using " " so much, jeez?! Hehe.

OK, there ya go, hopefully that satisfies you.

Targets on DOW and Nasdaq are mostly serious, but certainly subject to change over time. If you go look at my TV appearances over the years you will notice that back in 2000 I predicted the Nasdaq would be 2500. When it got to 3000ish, if I recall, I said it would go to 1500, and when it got to around there I said 1100s. I called the DOW to 7500 and came within 75 pts on the DOW of the exact bottom in 2003.

That's just intuition. Maybe AAPL will go to $500. Maybe it'll go to $30. If you are getting "hammered" I suggest you own too much of it anyway. Getting hammered isn't a good trading OR investing strategy. Use stops, my man, use STOPS! You can always get back in.

And, FYI, I hope I am wrong. I pray I am wrong. It's harder to make money for my clients if the market goes into total tank mode. Still very doable, but obviously its harder to trade a narrow range then a wide one. The higher we go, the better it is.

As a trader HOPE isn't a good thing. We trade both ways. I'll go long AAPL today for a trade, even though I think ultimately it goes below $100. And, I'm pretty confident that the calls will make money BOTH long and short.

Not perfect and not guaranteed, but our record speaks for itself, as do my market calls.

RULE and rock on, my friend, ROCK ON!

Waxie

Jeanne Mancuso said...

Waxie,

I took your advice and and checked out a couple of your tv appearances on the website. You have a very good tv presence but the Feb 2001 CNN was too painful to watch. The stocks you were short selling were in my buy and hold mutual funds at the time. I don't think that was a "gift", I think you had a crystal ball. That's around the time you made the 7 mil isn't it?

I know that there's a lot wrong with the markets now but you don't see a bubble like that now, do you? Stock valuations are no where near as ridiculous.(imho) Just out of curiousity, have you been bullish at all in the past 5 years?

Thanks for the blog, I enjoy reading it. Hope your move is going well.

Jeanne

Waxie said...

Jeanne, we wouldn't be in business if we weren't bullish and bearish. We're neutral, but I have to have some bias in terms of short term (and sometimes long term) market direction.

Yes, we went bullish in 2003 when the DOW hit 7500. We went bullish early last year. We will go bullish at some point next week. That's what traders do, they get bullish, then bearish, then bull then bear, etc.

YES, 100% we have a bubble in this market. Look at the tech stocks. You think GOOG and RIMM and AAPL are worth where they trade? What, GOOG isn't going to be, or is being affected?

What about the AG stocks? Fertilizer companies selling at 70 X's earnings? Be serious.

Solar stocks another bubble. V and MA bubbles.

So, yes, its a bubble market. Stay nimble!

WAXIE

Jeanne Mancuso said...

Waxie,

I stand corrected. I've only been affiliated with Trendfund since Feb or March (I know it seems longer :)) and have only seen the overall bearish side.

To answer your question, I think GOOG, RIMM, and AAPL are all solid companies with great growth, products, and earnings. I love my ipod. Time will tell I guess and your track record is much better than mine for sure, but I'm learning.

Jeanne

Jeanne Mancuso said...

Waxie,

I stand corrected. I've only been affiliated with Trendfund since Feb or March (I know it seems longer :)) and have only seen the overall bearish side.

To answer your question, I think GOOG, RIMM, and AAPL are all solid companies with great growth, products, and earnings. I love my ipod. Time will tell I guess and your track record is much better than mine for sure, but I'm learning.

Jeanne

Waxie said...

Jeanne,

All I can say is - OY VEY!

Don't do it! GOOG is a GREAT company, brilliant. They aren't worth 1/2 what they trade at and at some pt they will be $100s again. Hold at your own peril.

Same for AAPL, same for all the companies you speak of.

You've been warned, I bid thee well. I would be short them. Where in the world is GOOG going? It may get another bump if their earnings are ok this quarter, but I suspect that they will show incremenal slowing growth 2nd half of this year. Maybe, maybe not.

Remember, a stock is only worth what someone is willing to pay. Valuations have always proven to be pretty much meaningless over the long haul. In a bear market valuations can go as low as 5 - 8 p/e. In bull market they can go to 25 - 30 p/e.

I like ya, Jeanne, don't do it! At least sell some calls against your positions to protect yourself.

Well, do what ya want, but I couldn't possibly hold those things, they will be cut in 1/2, minimum.

:)

Jeanne Mancuso said...

Waxie,
I don't own any of them. I'm a little scared of the market now do in part to you and the price of oil, so I'm mostly in cash. I was just saying that they don't remind me of the dot.coms and tech bubble. (Free speech, remember) :)

Jeanne

Waxie said...

Free speech always and forever.

Internet bubble was with real companies.

Most are still around and thriving, just at lower stock prices. AAPL was $15 not so long ago. BRCM is great company, so is CSCO, so is EMC, so is MSFT, they aren't bubbles, but their prices sure were.

Same will be true of AAPl, GOOG and the rest. At least that's my humble opinion.

Stay nimble, stay quick!

Jeanne Mancuso said...

Waxie,

As long as you think I'm brilliant for liking GOOG, why don't we make a little friendly charity bet? If GOOG goes into the 100's within the next year I'll give $100 to your favorite charity, but if it doesn't you give $1000 to my favorite charity. Considering the disparity in our incomes I think that is fair. Deal?

(By the way, I don't know how to get rid of that double posting.)

Mario D'Agostino said...

Waxie, do you think we get a run up in Apple in anticipation of the i-phone 2 July 11, and into earnings??? maybe after that another big fall.

Mario D'Agostino said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Mario D'Agostino said...

Waxie, maybe I could help on the plays of the week, Apple up 10 pts on the dip this morning? LOL. Would that be considered a trend into i-phone 2? How about ENER? You were bugging the heck out of me during the 3-day seminar on-line. You could have reversed and rode it down now. Anyways, I wish I was a better trader than prognosticator, but I am still trying. 10 a.m. rule seems to work like a charm, I just gotta stick with the rules.
Sincerely, Mario D'Agostino

Mario D'Agostino said...

Duid your $Rut call was unreal, I guess you really know what your doing.

Ming said...

Waxie,

Best wish you have settled down in the new place.

I was positioned for banks to bounce near term. But one thing worries me that VIX is rising and is still far away from 30-37 level. Do you think the market will continue to push down?

One thing I learned a lot from your service is the money management. But occasionally I forgot the principle. My positions are too heavy this time, after I saw the reversal bar on last Tuesday.

Ming