Wednesday, June 04, 2008

I'm looking for May again!

OK, so here ya have the 1st week of June selloff underway (almost finished). We tried to rally early and it's not like we tanked, but we did finish right at the lows of day, not a strong sign and not a good sign. Maybe it's not a sign, but either way it ain't pretty!

Here's the dealio kiddies. I'm gonna give you some insight into how I personally think. Now perhaps it will be meaningful to some of you, perhaps not. And, perhaps it'll pan out, we shall see, but regardless this is part of what has made me the Waxie I am today!

OK, so you saw the early news (pre-market) on LEH, that they need to go and raise $4 BIL. And, as such the futures were tanking pretty hard, and LEH was down nearly $2. In fact the SKF, the inverse financial sector (short it by buying this long) was up nearly $3 premarket which is a pretty huge move.

Well, I thought we would bounce and we did and LEH went green by over $2 at one point on a short squeeze, nothing else. SKF went red by $2.

Now, why is that important? #1 nearly every financial stock that has said they wanted to raise money has gapped down and then filled the gap on a sell the rumor, buy the news scenario. SO, the bounce made perfect sense. And, even more imporantly, these stocks have then based and DIED - ALL OF THEM. WM, C, WB, USB. Look at the charts. So, what I'm saying is, if you want to short a broker, lock and load and load up on LEH short. While the trend may not work this time, my guess is it does in a big way. LEH looks like toast. I would not want to be long LEH if you gave me the money. Again, the trend may not work short term, but I think these stocks are all headed to the toilet. We shall see, but I just don't see how they can get any sustained bounce longer term. Squeezes will happen, but ultimately reality has to set in (usually) and the stocks will find themselves in the drink, and any investors in them will start to drink, or drink heavier in the end! Thursday watch ENER, the CEO speaks at a conference Friday it could get a nice bounce at some pt during the day into that event. See ya on the other side, Michael "Waxie" Parness

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