Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Please please please, dear Bernanke, please save usssssss!

Ah, ya, ok, the Fed has done such a wonderful job. We should have known this dude was clearly clueless when he first started and he immediately leaked policy to Maria on CNBC at a party while apparently having a bit too many to drink! Anyone else remember that?

I have to say, the Fed is so clueless at this point I'm going to have a hard time bashing them anymore, because what do you say that hasn't been said?

Tiny got a call today from an old client who said that, and I paraphrase - "you're crazy whacky Waxie boss called oil to $150 4 years ago! I can't believe it!" Wanna know what? I can't believe it either, not because I'm right, but only beccause this could have been avoided. Now? I'm sorry, but my new target on oil is $250+. Consumption levels are going to continue to CLIMB and there's no alternative online, or that will be online at this point for at least 15 - 20 years that is going to really make a dent. Do you realize that our major advance over the last 20 years to find an alternative to oil is Ethanol? I mean, it's ridiculous. And, here's the rub, the oil companies have lobbied to keep things status quo for all this time, but the backlash, they are seeing, is tremendous. As a trader I say "Greed = death". I think the same holds true in business as well often times. I'm a capitalist. I believe that hard work should be paid well. I like to make as much money as the next guy, but there comes a time when you are gouging your clientele so badly that they turn on you. Everything is risk vs. reward. Oil has become so ridiculous, it's like crack cocaine for the masses. It's ironic, I have not agreed with a lot of Bloomberg's policies. I think he over incentivized landlords and builders to create jobs, which is good in specific instances, to the point where the overbuilding has contributed to the real estate issues NYC is most definately going to face moving forward. He also didn't think ahead in terms of creating schools for all the families to attend, but it's easy to be a back seat driver. Bloomberg is one of the few politicians who has now come out and said what I've been saying - RAISE the gas/oil taxes LARGE! Most everyone else is asking for taxes to be lowered to get the price temporarily and artificially down. That can't possibly be anything but a political vote grabbing ploy. Raise it $5 a gallon. Raise it $10 a gallon in TAX alone. Make gas $10 - $15, or even $20 a gallon and use the tax monies to subsidize people who need the gas to get to work, or who qualify salary wise. I know I've said it, it just drives me nuts. Look, I'll be one of the first to start taking public transportation ALL the time. I'd keep a car but I would RARELY use it. You do that, you will cut consumption by 25 - 30% I believe. If the oil cartel, even temporarily, finds they have too much oil and no less people are paying for it, they will 100% figure out ways to lower the prices. It gives us leverage. Right now we have ZERO leverage. Less than zero!

Tomorrow is FOMC day. This one is a total non event. The market today traded HORRIBLY! I have to admit, it was a tough day to trade. We died and then bounced heavy (which we called and caught) but then the death into the close definately took me by surprise. I didn't think we would zoom, but I thought we would at least trade sideways. We closed near the lows all around. The tech sector tanked heavy. MON, which reports in the am, sold off right into the close. Unless they blow out, they should trade down pretty steeply. I don't own it either way, but that group does look a tad heavy already, MON better blow out big, or watch out below on all those AG stocks! The financials tried to bounce but couldnt' sustain it. Remember, into the end of the quarter the rich get richer stock performance wise, and the poor get poorer! So, we'll see what MON does and then after the close we have RIMM reporting and that is going to be a HUGE market for techs to measure up to. This market looks ready to roll over and die. That would be good for it, to really capitulate. It may very well happen tomorrow if the Fed doesn't say anything helpful. Remember not to get in front of a bullish bus, or a bearish knife! Go with the flow, not against it! We'll have our longside trade shortly - stay tuned!

We're doing our Small Cap Monster class next Monday, hopefully I'll see ya all there! I'll post info ASAP!



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