Monday, June 23, 2008

Get up, stand up, stand up for your rights!

Man, I love Bob Marley.

OK, so the market did exactly what the Window Dressing trend dicates it should do the last week of a quarter - the HOT got HOTTER and the COLD got COLDER!

This is setting up VERY NICELY for our next big winner(s)! And, of course our current TOP PICKS and OPTION PLAYS are simply DELIROUSLY ROCKING!

ENER, GDP, ICO, etc, etc. How sick are they? WOWSA!

Plus, our puts on WFMI and the financials (LM) are delicious and gonna get more so! There is NO BOTTOM to this group until...we say so! :)

This weekend I saw a movie that I swear was commissioned by the MTA or YOUR local public transit authority. What movie? THE HAPPENING!

I actually didn't think it was as dreadful as most critics. It was predictable and fairly inocuous, but harmless. What it really is is a PSA (Public service announcement) for public transportation. STAY AWAY FROM THE GRASS! Yes, stay away from the grass and go under ground...and take the subway!

Or bus, I guess.

Anyhow, this market is UGLY. I mean its REALLY ugly. Did I say it was really ugly? It's ugly. I think MER is almost a sure thing to go under $30 into earnings. Who in their right mind is going to buy MER here now? LEH continues its descent to under $10 or worse final destination = zero and in Bear Stearns fiery pit of hell. (no offense to anyone).

I just do not see these things getting any significant bounce that can last until a bunch of them fail. I have a ton on my list of banks that are going to go UNDER. SOV, WM, FED, COF all potentially can fail in my opinion. There are a lot more that could. C has SERIOUS issues, but the Fed would probably bail them out as that would sink the entire country potentially. This whole sector is SHOT and you need to avoid it at ANY cost, other than maybe for a trade when the time is right.

Stick with the hot this week and you should be fine.It's kinda nice trading cause you can short the financials as a hedge against the ENER and GDP's of the world that we like and get winners BOTH ways! That's the way, ah huh, ah huh, we like it, ah huh ah huh!

Oil went higher after the Saudi meeting. Duhhhhhh. Dudes and dudesses, does anyone think that these countries are concerned about lowering the price of oil? Hehe, that's funny. I mean, that's like saying that you want to give money away. Right now these countries rule the world. We can pretend we do, or Europe, but it's an illusion. If we did we'd be able to tell these countries to lower the price and open the valves up full throttle.

The biggest problem, and I have said it again and again, is that there was no one preparing for what really was inevitable. That's not hindsight, oil has risen precipitously for many many years. Yes, its risen a lot faster the last 2 years, but it's risen steadily over the years. Why didn't anyone do anything? Again, this is our leaders fault. It's very disturbing to me that we continue to do things AFTER the fact, not before. In July's Trend Profit Report newsletter (email me if you want to subscribe - I rant in depth about this issue. I'll publish the article here on the blog in the next few days for ya if ya want, but I just don't get it. NONE of this should be a surprise and yet here we are. And now they want to do things? It's going to take a MINIMUM of 10 years to really make headway. I've believed in the peak oil theory for years. I think we can only produce so much and that until there is a movement to stop certain luxury practices, forget it. We need to stop the things we've been doing, and do something different! Ever hear the saying - "If you do the same things, you get the same results." Or, "Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results". Either one is apropo. And, either one leads us to a very bad ending to our economic woes, our financial institutions and for the rising cost of oil and commodities. You better get used to it, withing 5 years it will cost you north of $10 a gallon of gas. Sorry, folks, thats reality. I don't sugarcoat, that's not what I get paid for. I tell it like I see it. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but oil isn't going to pull back meaningfully for a long while. It can pull back to retest $100 at some point MAYBE, but would you rather own oil futures, or the US Dollar? Hmmmm. Give me the oil, you can keep the dollar!

See ya on the other side, FOMC meeting tomorrow is a non-event, though we should be able to trade it as always and ROCK THE MARKETS with Ka-chingos!




mdp129 said...

love reading your blog.. i dont miss a day of it! In you opinion, where exactly do you see the state of our economy over the next 12 months? all out recession, depression, or something in between, etc? my portfolio is in bonds and short ETF on the nasdaq. asked my wife to transfer her entire 401k portfolio into least until things shake out - foolish? thinking preservation and safety.
btw; love your book; power trading, power living.

Waxie said...

mdp, I think we're screwed for quite a while. There's a lot of denial, and I don't mean the river in Egypt. We're in very very bad shape. Take a walk down Broadway in NYC, go 10 blocks, you'll see at least 2 to 3 boarded up stores, with more going under every day. Victoria's Secret closed for Gawd's sake!

I would stay in Bonds and Treasuries and anything but the market, frankly. But, hey, thats me. Thanks for the well wishes.

jamesfreddyc said...


Ditto on the blog... I am addicted.

I tend to side with your outlook, but do so with a bias towards the price of oil -- I mean, heck, it fuels our economy. With that said, the one glimmer of hope that might be out there is a bust in the oil bubble.

I can justify the price increase in conjunction with world demand. But I have yet to find a convincing argument for the recent spike over the past, say, 1-2 years. Which leads me to believe it's bubble, a farce, a made up price.

...could we just be witnessing an oil bubble ready to burst like another tech-stock bubble? A speculator housing market crash?

If so, the outlook is a bit brighter.

Waxie said...

I don't believe there is an oil bubble. I don't believe there is a commodity bubble.

When oil is $250 let me know, I think it gets there.

When Corn is 1500 let me know, I think it gets there.

We are going to go into hyper inflation mode. Sorry to be the grim reaper, but our economic "experts" have destroyed the very solid foundation it took centuries to create.

Sorry folks, if you are investing thinking 5 years from now you'll be green so it's ok to hold through the good and bad times, you are out of your mind, in my opinion. The DOW is going below 2003 lows and so is the Nasdaq.

See ya there. Be afraid, be very afraid.

jamesfreddyc said...

I love your candor, bro! I'm not in the market at the moment, all my capital is tied up in my business and home (thank gawd I didn't refi to fill the house with flat-screens and hooptie rims for the SUV, so no harm no foul).

BUT, I appreciate your commentary on the overall econ.

Take Care!