Wednesday, June 25, 2008

FED...UP...

OK, so from a trading perspective Wednesday was TEXTBOOK! One of our finer trends and one highlighted on several of our DVDs (email me if you want a list - waxie@trendfund.com). is to fade the FOMC. Not only that, to fade it and refade it. Knock on wood, this trend has KICKED BUTT every time since I can remember. Market got a HUGE spike off the FOMC and then sold off and then rallied again, and then sold off again into ORCL and RIMM earnings, which we said would be KEY. MON earnings were just as key, and that sector initially sold off DRAMATICALLY. So far RIMM is holding the same. RIMM is down nearly $10 afterhours as I write this. Their EPS # and guide was HORRIBLE, but their revenues and guidance on that level were both above consensus. ORCL sold off as well. Tomorrow is either going to mark some type of trading bottom, or we are tank city. We'll see soon enough.

In the meantime, I'm going to probably be off for a few days. I'll try to post some, but I'm moving and won't be looking much while transitioning to the new place and setting my "stuff" up.

Watch the ER (Russell) here. I have a feeling TECH is next to get cracked in this market. The notion is gonna start to set in that - duh - tech is NOT a safe haven for anyone during an economic meltdown. Sorry, it doesn't work that way. These stocks are mostly going to get crushed! ER target remains 300s and Nasdaq target remains a retest of 2003 lows at 1100s. A NEW Grinch list is about to come out, stay tuned!

In the meantime, our 2nd issue of SMALL CAP MONSTERS is due out next week. We are doing a class to introduce the service and 3 Small Cap ENERGY names we feel are doubles to ten baggers over the next year. So far our two picks from the 1st newslettere are INSANE! SATC has been a double basically and DEPO is cruising as well! So, we're 2 for 2 and moving forward.

Hold the market fort down for me!

Oh, one more brief item. I got an email disagreeing with my take on the oil and energy crisis. Specifically they have an issue with my idea of adding a huge tax to gas and making it so high people stop consuming, or at least dramatically cut back, which I believe would lead to lower oil prices. They hated my idea. That's totally cool. Part of the fun of writing a blog is hearing what YOU guys think and feel and your wins and even your losses. (How about our GS short call with 40 minutes left in the day that netted at least $2!)

My point is, this country and free speech go hand and hand. It sucks when anyone tries to shut someone else off from having a thought or opinion. Having said that, no bashing, please. This is a blog that hopefully gets people thinking and reacting to the stock market and other things as well. You hear mine and if you disagree I respect your opinion, even if I don't agree. I'll respect yours same!

RULE and be careful folks, financials looking beat to death again.

See ya on the other side,

Michael "Waxie" Parness

*If you are interested in the Small Cap Monsters newsletter, please email me - waxie@trendfund.com

RULE!

5 comments:

jamesfreddyc said...

Good luck on the move --- lift with your legs! lol...

I wish the e-mailer had posted instead --- differening ideas make for a great show (and blog) and tend to moderate the extreme sides. I love hearing your crushing commentary on the econ -- its scary! lol.

So... Let me just inject this:

Instead of massive taxes to reduce consumption by force, I'd rather see tax dollars go towards incentivising (sp) alternatives (fuels and autos). Throw away the moratoriums on oil extraction, and flood the world market with new supply -- giving a time-cushion on lowering current price levels until there are legitimate and feasable alternatives that are born out of the marketplace.

Rafal said...

Hey Waxman!
Love Your blog. I'm agree almost on everything You says and believe me I'm very sceptical when it comes to "Market comments". Don't You worry about bashing. I'm afraid it's unavoidable. Just ignore it.
Best regards
P.S. By the way my 5 years old daughter love "WordWorld". Thanks for a tip.

guywood said...

Waxie your're awesome. The call on GS was beautiful. I held the postion over night and made even more today. I don't envy you...movin is a big job regardless of the size of your family. I agree with you Tech is the next sector to get hammered. You can see what happened to RIMM today down -17 + They have set the trend for whats to follow. I'm sorry the tax rebate checks just anti-goin to help. I spent mine on a new Refrig so I did my part. Enjoy your weekend !!

Ming said...

I got my tax rebate of $1.45. I am in CA and I expect most people here do not get tax rebate. So it does not help at all.

Today is a big day. DOW crashed down the year low and I thought it would bounce. I was wrong. Waxie, is this the short term low? Or we are not even near the low yet.

Waxie, you are super.

Waxie said...

Read tonights blog for my thoughts on the market here and moving forward. I'll repeat, you guys who aren't members, now is a great time to become one because I think there will and are some GREAT trades here now. Even if you take Options Trader, or Black belt, whatever it is, get on board folks!