Monday, July 14, 2008

Turnaround Tuesday?

Well, the question begs "how much worse can it get for financials?"

The simple answer is MUCH. Honestly, there is some gift money out there if you're willing to be an investor on the short side more than likely. I don't think some of these stocks can possibly survive. Next 3 days are KEY (I feel like I say that every week, jeez!) because of C, MER, and GOOG earnings. There are others like IBM and INTC, but for my money GOOG is really going to be the key for techs simply because of the bubble I believe exists in the momentum names of tech. We will hope GOOG says everything is wonderful and gets us going to the upside. That'll give us some nice entries on the short side, and a potential nice trade to the longside initially to boot! I have no real feel for how GOOG is gonna play out. I do know that when we do get a trend up day soon it should be a very nice trading day.

In the meantime, I think you need to be patient if you are wanting to jump in for a long trade here. I still think there is the potential for a very serious catastrophic financial event unlike anything we've seen before (how's that for dramatic!?). But, perhaps everything will be dandy and the Fed will fix it all. NOT. The fact that the market sold off the way it did even after the Fed intervened says a lot. Yeah, we didn't go down that much, but we were down better than 200 pts from the gap up at one point during the day. There are simply no real buyers here, and other than dead cat bounces it's unlikely to change UNLESS we get the GOOGlicious #s some people expect.

There are two sectors I am targeting for near term trades to the short side. I'll talk more about this either Friday or Sunday night or whenever the TECH SHORT class goes. I'm trying to time this as best I can. Obviously last list is sick good, and hopefully we can knock 'em dead with this one! Stay tuned!

Be safe, and don't have your money in the regional banks! :)




Eric said...

Thanks for all the insight Waxie. I bought some SKF on your recommendation 6/27/08 - 40% up off that call!


Owenaldo said...

What do you thing about the new SEC rule about naked short sales on banks waxie? will it help the banks ??

Waxie said...

Naked short selling is meaningless, so no it won't help the banks. the banks are SHOT, stick a fork in them. Stop thinking about them, pretend there are no banks since 100s of them are likely to go under anyway!

:) You are welcome eric!