Wednesday, July 09, 2008


WOW, did you see that TWO DAY RALLY WE HAD!!!!?

No, neither did I! That's cause it didn't exist!

All that one day rally did was give shorts a better entry and now TECH is rolling over. I said it before and I'll say it again, AAPL, RIMM, GRMN, GOOG, etc. all going WAY WAY DOWN ultimately, timing is everything so we'll see when. I think AAPL may be shot here, but again let's see what shakes. THis is do or die near term. Either we retest and hold the recent lows, or if ER and ES bust below and can't bounce we should see 500s on the ER and 1100s on the S & P shortly. Stay tuned!

I do want to note that I gave you guys 1 stock yesterday LONG as a laggard - MELI. DId ya notice that in spite of the massive selloff MELI was up over $4! That's better than 15% in a day!

Who is your daddy?

FYI - I made a mistake, I meant 1300 last night on S & P, not 1400s. I don't think we see 1400s on S & P for a VERY long time, sorry to say. Folks, you must trade this market! If you are long you are WRONG and you will remain WRONG other than a dead cat bounce or two from here for a while. YES, we may get a decent bounce if we hold the lows, but that's all its gonna be. We need to find a TRUE solid base and I for one don't believe that's anywhere to be found until S & P 1000 or LOWER. S0, you want to stick in longs, be my guest but don't cry to me when you are dead broke! See ya in the am! FNM and FRE headed to my under $1 final targets. All these companies, and the Fed are just giving mixed messages. I believe the Fed is trying to make sure there is not mass panic in the markets BUT they want the market to go LOWER. Yes, I said it, call me nuts, won't be the first time or first ones, but I think the reason why yesterday you had Paulson saying "the housing market is stabilizing" and today other Fed speak countering that is very purposeful. The purpose? To make sure that the market's crashing doesn't happen all at once. They know its going to crash, they just don't want panic. Conspiracy? Nope, the Fed isn't in charge of the stock market's health, its in charge of the economies health. FNM and FRE can be .10 cents and still serve their purpose. The Fed proved with BSC that they don't care one bit about shareholders, nor should they. SO, you think we are at a bottom? GOod luck, Chuck, you will regret it. SELL YOUR STOCKS and start trading! Self serving? PErhaps, I want you all as clients for sure, but for a myriad of reasons. I want you all to start making money and not donating it to the short fund! See ya on the other side, WAXIE


Mario D'Agostino said...

yes, it looks like the apple rally was short lived. only thing i don't understand is some of your trades are longer term a few weeks, and maybe a month or two. Would you consider that investing? and are you still holding your calls on AMSC in this poopola of a market??? I won't bother you anymore.

jamesfreddyc said...


just from what I can tell, I think any setup that would last from, say 2 days to a couple of months, that would be like a "swing trade". It's still not "investing". I believe when Waxie says investing, he's talking about buying a stock and holding for years.

howsweet5 said...

A couple of questions 4 you. 1. are u suggestion that we sell our mutual funds too (since they "invest" in stocks?
2. are u aware of airline etfs? if yes, any that short the airline industry?


Waxie said...

Investing is investing, its betting the stock market will go up (or down, I suppose if you just shorted and held forever). I don't advocate either, but we do swing trade stocks for periods of time, yes.
I don't own any mutual funds. If I did they would all be SHORT funds since i think the DOW has a better shot to see 5000 than it does to see 15,000. I think if you recall 2000 to 2003 Bear Market, I think the average fund lost like 60% of its value. If you think the market is going to go down, like me, they why would you hold onto funds that buy and hold stocks on the long side?
Airline ETFs I don't know offhand, but Google it and see what comes up. You could just spread short them all in a basket, would work the same if done correctly, but an ETF would be easier for sure. Good luck!

mdp129 said...

if you are correct about what the fed is doing.. trying to keep the market from crashing all at once.. then wouldnt you prefer that action over a huge crash? i would think the swings provide the best entry/exits vs the big drop. almost sounded like you were beginning to warm up bernie. lol.