Sunday, July 13, 2008

FED does what we thought they would...

The Fed announced they are opening the windows to FNM and FRE today. This one was a gimme. They also announced they might buy into the companies. So, we are gapping up HUGE off this news. The news doesn't mean anything, other than a temporary relief rally in the markets, which is great. It's funny, I REALLY do hope I'm wrong about my doom and gloom scenario. Trust me, you guys and anyone we work with will make a lot more the higher we go. We make money either way, up or down, but more of you are comfortable going long than short, so its always in my best interest, and the economies, if the market goes UP, and not DOWN! But, I have to call it as I see it, and I think these bandaids just make it WORSE for investors, it gives them false hope that the daddy-Fed is going to save them. This is a total MIRROR of the markets in most Bear times, and if you look at comments and actions by the Fed from 2000 to the last bottom in 2003 you will see some very eery similarities in terms of the jargon being put forward, and the Fed's actions. The S & P are gapping up 15 points here, and the DOW over 100 points. Maybe it'll hold, this is an Options Expiration week and that often is a reversal week as funds and institutions balance out their positions. Plus, we have GOOG, MER, IBM, INTC, MSFT, C and other BIG earnings and any positive surprises very well may squeeze this market higher near term. That's why it always pays to TRADE 'em, and not marry 'em! In the end, though, the Fed can't keep doing anything other than propping the markets up and feeding false hope into a market that is on life support right now. Again, I hope I am WAY wrong, you can all say "Waxie sucks!" That'd be WONDERFUL, trust me, but I call 'em like I see 'em and I see this playing out very very poorly. BUT, we will get, at least, a nice bounce at the open MOnday! Peace out, Waxie

1 comment:

orion555 said...

Waxie, thank you for posting in these indeterminate times. Choking on smoke here in California, things look dark indeed. Cash is a position, yet a wonderful ride may be caught on this tiger. For us newbies good to go in small measure it seems. I really appreciate your commentary on the larger picture as there is always another train coming. Let's stay on the right side, and remember that the light at the end of the tunnel may be a bear with a flashlight.