Sunday, July 13, 2008

DO NOT READ IF YOU CAN'T HANDLE IT!

It's funny watching Booyah-head-boy on CNBC Friday saying that the selling in FNM and FRE is OVER! He said it 100 times, as though trying to convince himself it might/could be true.

FNM and FRE are DEAD. They are both worthless entities. If the FED didn't have so much riding on them they'd both be where Enron is. Frankly, the amount of fraud and abuse of power may rival that of Enron. The Fed and the powers that be are clueless. Booyah-head-boy had a MASTER PLAN that will "save the housing market and send FNM and FRE up $15!".

Yes, the Fed should take warrants in the companies. Ah-huh, and this guy has a show that people actually tune into!

Funny, and I say this knowing first hand how hard it is to call the market day to day, I don't envy that, I do it myself and no one can always be right, in fact there are times when you have to be WAY wrong. Its the nature of the beast, and you're only as good as your last call.

OK, with qualifications out of the way, let me be the first to remind anyone who cares that Booyah-head-boy is the same dude who devoted hours of air time saying that BEAR STEARNS (BSC) was an absolute steal at around $80-$90 AND that they would be BOUGHT OUT (go to Youtube and look up the clip, I believe it's on there) by someone.

Well, I must admit, he was right! BSC was bought out and taken over by someone!!!! At $2 a share, then finally $10 a share!

So, he was only $70 or $80 off the mark. FNM and FRE, frankly, are going to ZERO unless the government bails them out in a way that saves shareholders. That would possibly be the dumbest thing they have done yet. FNM and FRE are antiquated. They serve no viable purpose as a public entity, they never have. They are government backed entities, the fact that there is even talk of government entities is a socialist idea that counters the tenets of capitalism.

The reason why we have capital markets is so that the markets can trade FREELY. Some may not agree. There are a lot of reasons why people feel the government should bail out these public companies. The problem is, and this is solely my opinion, that the government is setting up a very dramatic unraveling of the ENTIRE banking system in this country. There, I said it. I believe there is a better than 60 to 70% change (I'm being generous) that the ENTIRE US BANKING system goes CAPUT within the next 12 to 18 months.

Now, I know I will get a bunch of emails saying that I'm nuts, that that could never happen, that how dare I be so Un-American! Well, I'm as blessed and happy about living in their wonderful country as anyone, but I have to speak what I believe to be true. I think there will be a "run" on the US banking system and it will shut the banks - ALL OF THEM - down for a short period until things get sorted out.

I would rather own just about any other currency right now than the US Dollar. That's a fact. the US Dollar can't help but go down and much of that has to do with Fed policy. It's a policy doomed to fail. You simply can not put bandaids on when your arm is severed. It won't work.

I don't know, I'm just a dude who was homeless and once thought that a leftover happy meal from a garbage can was a delicacy, but I saw this coming. A lot of smarter people than me saw this coming, yet no one did a thing about it. And now? Now a lot of the same people see what I see and yet again, no one is doing anything about it. We hear talk of another $50 BIL in "economic stimulus". Are you kidding me? Seriously, are they that dumb? The first $150 BIL didn't work worth anything, why would you keep doing what doesn't work? They first one was just a political ploy, the second will have even less/worse an effect. They could throw a TRILLION dollars at the problem, it will just make it worse.

Printing money just makes your money worth-LESS. It doesn't help anything, it just helps create the hyper inflation we are building toward.

Yes, I am the grim reaper, I know, and as I keep saying - I really do hope I am wrong. Unfortunately I don't think I am. Until something different is done to FIX the system, the system will keep chugging along with it's head in the sand until someone comes along and buries it. That's what is setting up.

The stock market? The stock market is going down folks, WAY WAY WAY down. The DOW should be MAXIMUM 7000s in a couple of years (or much sooner), the Nasdaq should be below 1200 in same time frame (I love the Nasdaq short longer term, LOVE).

Unfortunately I don't know how to fix anything, all I can do is watch and wonder and listen to these dudes and dudesses in government say the same thing every day, and then at some point come back and say something countering what they were saying like it was nothing.

I watched the congressional hearings on Friday. Or whatever that nonsense was. If you saw it you saw some congresswoman ask this question, and I paraphrase "who is going to reap the PROFITS on the mortgages from the COuntry Wide Financial (CFC) deal?"

I mean, I nearly puked from laughter. The profits? Does anyone think that BAC wants that deal to go through now? Thy would back out in ten seconds if they could. That deal isn't going to have any profits. BAC is one of the best shorts out there simply becuase of that purcahse. CFC has so many bad debts from what I see that there is the possibility that that deal could do severe damage to BAC itself.

We are still a country in denial. Until that denial is punctured and reality sets in we can't possibly have a true bottom from which to build upon for more than trading dead cat rallies.

I'm sorry, I prefaced this by warning you not to read this if you didn't want the truth, at least according to me. It's funny, I post on several other messages boards on the internet. I posted something early last week about how FNM was going below $10, or lower, when it was north of $15. There were people writing saying I'm crazy, that it can't happen and that FNM was a great buy.

I'm not always right, in fact as a trader I am OFTEN wrong. I say it all the time, you don't need to be right all the time, just more often than not. But anyone saying that the financials are a good buy here is off their rocker. If C isn't $5 or less this time next year I will enter the Nathan's Hot Dog eating contest and beat Joey Chestnut!

You may not think that's a big deal, but I haven't had a hot dog in literally 25 years, I hate Hot Dogs, they disgust me. I read what was in them as a teenager and I swore off them forever.

There hasn't been a capitulation. For those of you who were around the markets in 2000 to 2003 during the decline from 12,000s to 6000s on the DOW than you will remember EVERYONE called a bottom every week. All we heard about was how much money was on the sidelines and how this was a great buying opportunity.

I think TECH is the next to get CRUSHED. I think the AGs are sitting ducks and I think that eventually EVERYTHING in sight is going on a one way ticket to 50% off sticker prices.

We are in the EARLY stages of a long term BEAR MARKET. That means that you will basically be able to throw darts at the market to the short side and get it right. I have to keep saying it, I think TECH is VASTLY overpriced. People say "oh, but people will still buy I-Phones" . Of course they will, no one said Apple is going out of business, but their stock price is VASTLY overpriced. And, in the end, the BEAR gets ya! That's REALITY, if you can take it! Happy trading this week. We may get a bounce shortly, but it won't last that long until we get a REAL capitulatory move. I think S & P 1200 - 1210 is a given here, and DOW 10,500 area looks like a sure thing. We'll see soon enough! See ya on the other side, WAXIE P.S. I'm doing another SHORT SPECIAL class giving the TOP 10 TECHS to short NOW in the next 2 weeks, if you are interested email me at waxie@trendfund.com and/or look for the info on the site. Price will be about $129 and I'll give some option plays with the stocks as well. The last list has obviously ROCKED! I think this one will rock even better because these stocks are so VASTLY overpriced! Stay tuned!

10 comments:

TheBeerGuy! said...

Hey Waxman, Guess I was right about getting long going into Monday. I also bet HUGE on USD/JPY the moment the forex markets opened at 5:00 based on Paulson's fannie/freddy comments. Hope I'm right on this one...forex normally requires extensive Xanax intake.

Major bounce coming, today at least, as I anticipated and the BeerGuy REALLY knows market timing.

I think you're wrong on this NDX 1200 and Dow 7000 or whatever. If that occurs, along with a complete failure of the US banking system, might as well kiss your film career goodbye also. I'm thinking NDX 1890, DOW 9,800 - 10,260 BUT after a corrective bear market move higher.

You do realize that if your call of doom and gloom to epic proportions is incorrect, that could impact the profitability of your web biz as this would place some doubt regarding longer-term forecasting talent? Be careful here bud...this isn't as easy to call as the tech, dot-com crash....at least from these current levels.

My advice to you, and you are a good guy is to NEVER go out on a limb regarding predictions....don't play Nostradamus too heavily much like that short little idiot on CNBC. I can't stand that clown myself.

Good Luck! And this comes from a competitor (somewhat).

BeerGuy!

Waxie said...

Dude, I've been right on EVERY SINGLE longer term market call. I'll be right on this one.

ANd, if I'm not, I'm not. It doesn't hurt me, or my clients. We're TRADERS, what do I care if the market rallies or dies? I hope I'm WAY wrong. It's much better for everyone if the market rallies and stays rallied, but I don't see it happening.

Of course the Fed was gong to bail out FNM and FRE. That was a given. So?

As far as Forex, nice grab. Hopefully you take profits liberally I doubt the bounce lasts all that long, though OE week is usually a reversal week as funds and institutions balance out their ports.

My film career isn't much of a career, but thanks for the thoughts, hehe. I wish it was, but figuring out the markets is a lot easier than figuring out the ridiculousness of the film biz.

Have fun, don't drink too much beer, its bad for the liver!

TheBeerGuy! said...

Hey Waxie...don't take me wrong, I like you...you're one of the good guys. I guess we just disagree a little on where the bottom resides but that's what makes a market.

OT: Remember the good 'ole Raging Bull Message Board days? I really liked that board.

Anyhow, its been fun selling this market short but I'm sticking with my bear rally theory at least for a few days. BooYah! (LOL!)

Remember, the Liver is Evil and it must be punished!

BeerGuy!

raf said...

Hey Waxman!
Your predictions are very scary, but I'm afraid that You're right.
It sounds to me like You're the only sober guy in trading, investing, financial, etc., etc.,... community.
I would like to know on what other messages boards I can find Your postings.
Best regards Raf

Waxie said...

beerguy, your long on the dollar may work out, but if you are in it huge as you say, you got a bit whacked. If the dollar does rally, its an easy short shortly. The move by the Fed is not bullish for the dollar, quite the opposite.
doesn't; mean dollar won't; rally, but it won't; stick.

raf - I don't post anything worth reading for blog readers anywhere else, trust me. I just like to have a presence other places.

I don't drink, beerguy, single dad of two little girls makes you quite sober.

:)

TheBeerGuy! said...

Well Waxie....just like you I trade on the "perception", at least initially the market might have on a situation and I believe the news on fanny/freddy will "initially" be viewed as dollar/yen positive.

I took 7 standard lots at the open. Sold 5 off at about 50 pips to the upside...not bad for a Sunday.

Holding the other 2 through the Euro session at least. Hopefully I'll get a full 100 rally on those. If not, I'll stop out a little below 105.80.

I'm also short the QID a little and if the futures look strong early on, I'll load up and look to get a point from that and call it a day.

Now go have a beer.

Waxie said...

OK, dude. That trade has fallen from the get-go, but good luck.

I'll have a Perrier with lime.

rob in texas said...

you need to stay up late help tiny change his tire im an aircraft mechanic and i changed 4 main tires this week tell tiny that ill change his tire for him if he gives me 4 stocks that he likes that have a bear flag pattern

rob in texas said...

tiny says bkx might bounce this morning short at 11am maybe and maybe a goog strangle for this week got liberated from 9000 dollars on crk put last week and now its all back whats the story friday morn got 6k back on qqqq put but i had to talk to my money all morning saying i missed you im sorry ill never let that happen again do you have any words that i can say to my money so it wont have the urge to stray again

TheBeerGuy! said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.