Thursday, July 17, 2008

Rally time...

And then,,,,MSFT = miss...GOOG = miss...MER = miss.

Futures down pretty deeply.

Dudes, and dudesses. We've had a nice rally/short squeeze. Be very afraid here, I feel strongly that TECH is the next giant to get slayed and all this rally did was set it up so we can take the financials short again next week! This rally is going to peeter out fast, folks. I like the RUT.X puts again and think the Russell should see the other side of $600 before the next options expiration (August). Maybe, maybe not, but I like tech short. The short class will be set tomorrow as far as date.

I think this market is setting up for a pretty steep decline near term. MER earnings show that things are not any better. The SEC and FED propping things up can only last a short period of time.FNM and FRE will be ZERO, period. That's my take.

I'm probably going to short (yes, evil, I know) FNM and FRE tomorrow. They will probably pin $7.50 and $10.00 on them. Watch pin action tomorrow. I think GS several issues look good here, but will reserve that for another forum.

GOOG down $50s after hours, BIDU down 4+%, MER down big, IBM down even after blowing out. This is a BEAR market rally.

I also like WM puts, the Augusts as I think WM is the next to fail. We'll see soon enough, won't we?

See ya all manana!




mdp129 said...

Waxie, oil? where's that heading short term?

raf said...

Hey Waxman!
You want to go short on FNM & FRE tomorrow. Good luck!!! Just tell me how? I already tried add to my short position on FNM and guess what? Thanks to new SEC order I think, wasn't allowed. To me it's pure COMMUNISM and believe me I know what I'M saying cause I grew up in communist country. What happened to FREE MARKET ??? GONE WITH WIND? They are against stock price manipulation, rumongoers, etc, etc... By restricting short selling they artificialy drive prices of financial stocks up. To me it seems is what FED/SEC is doing. They all should be sent to Gulag in Siberia for life. I'm newbie, being in this bussines for just 4 years or so but never was so upset before when it comes to trading, even after taking the biggest loss.
Best regards Raf

raf said...

P.S. What happened to Tiny's technical outlook on
I like this fella and His insights.
Cool guy. Doesn,t He has His own blog. Say hello to Him. Raf

mbf245 said...


please tell me, how do you short FRE and FNM at this time ? I tried to, but no go: "We were unable to borrow the shares". They buying up C, the just released a statement that "prime mortgage portfolio deteriorating". I sty short, bought more puts.

pjkoko said...

Hi Waxie I like your blog. Please tell me how FNM and FRE go to zero as you claim when the us government is acting as a backstop and sounds like they won't let it fail. What am I missing?

Waxie said...

FNM and FRE should go to zero unless the US govt actually decides to buy the stocks themselves. That's unlikely, but hey, anything is possible.

As far as shorting the stock, Terra Nova had short shares on Friday, you should all switch to them and tell them I sent you, they'll hook you up with some better pricing then usual I believe.

I'm hoping FNM hits $15 and FRE hits $10s Monday. I think that'll be the best entries. But, ya never know, thats why they call it a market!