Wednesday, August 13, 2008

CHOP AND SLOP...

Financials once again led us down, though the selling was abated late day and tech, led by AAPL, stayed strong throughout.

GOOG announced they will ship their Android phones shortly. What an Android phone is you will hve to let me know, and why anyone would want one, you'll also have to let me know. I guess one could own an I-Phone, Blackberry and an Android!

I've been hearing more and more analysts say that now is a good time to buy the financials, that they are close to the ever elusive bottom. It's funny, cause maybe time will prove them right, you all know how I feel about that, though. Regardless, one guy said that he likes WM here. Why? Becuase its got like 13,000 branches (I have no idea the # but its a lot) and therefore he think its a steal at $4.00. And that's why I abuse the hell out of analysts, because they say dumb things like that. That's like saying that you should buy my Ice Cream stand business, which has 300 branches for $1,000,000 because I have so many stands! Problem is that I own these stands in the part of Antarctica that hasn't been melted by Global Warming! (I don't really own ice cream stands, though I do like ice cream!). I mean, what does it matter if a bank has 3 branches or 300,000 if they are losing money! It's an absurd notion that WM is a buy here for ANY price. WM is like FNM and FRE, I will be shocked if WM exists in a year. And, if it does, it'll be in a merger, or the stock will be under $1 and it'll be about to go under more than likely. But, hey, what do I know? People keep trying to pick bottoms in these stocks and keep getting burned. One day they will be right, they will be sold off enough to call them worth owning. I doubt it'll be in the next 2 years, but so what you're a wee bit early! I guess! It's funny, I went back and looked at You Tube. Booyahhead saying that BSC is FINE, totally FINE when it was mid $60s. That it was going to get bought out when it was even higher, and yes, he was right! BSC did get bought out! At $2, then $10, but it got bought out! So what you lost $50+ a share on it, no biggie! OK, so now what? As I stated yesterday, watch the strike prices. Keep an eye on LEH ($15 or $17.50 very likely). GS usually closes at a strik and right now its hugging $165. GOod thing about GS is its volatile, so watch it, if it starts to take off or break down you can often catch a few dollars going with it the way its leaning into the end of the quarter. AAPL same, RIMM ditto and GOOG always closes (almost always) at a strike and right now is hugging $500. Unfortunately they will probably close WM right at our $4 put price, but maybe we get lucky. One that is ready to bust down, particularly on the next big selloff is COF. This thing is so ripe to see $20s its yummy as a short. We may get a bounce in financials here shortly, so if you are interested you might want to wait for that, or do 1/2 now and add if it pops to $45 area. I think longer term this thing is teens at best. Our ZION puts for Option Trader totally DOUBLE now. Nice play. I called two things today, one winner, one loser. GOOG long late day was a $2 loser, but for Options Trader I called LEH $17.50 puts at $1.50 and they went all the way to about $2.55. We sold some and then got out the rest b/e. VERY nice intraday play! LEH, again, looks under $10 very shortly. GS even ready to fall to $125 area as I feel it should have already. Thursday should be decently volatile, so lets TRADE 'EM, don't marry 'em! RULE Waxie!

8 comments:

Nick said...

take a look at AZO as a possilbe short class stock. I have shorted the COF a couple of times and it doesn't seem to fall sooooon I hope might look at it tomorrow.

How do you date a girl that spells tomorrow..tomarrow not once but 3 times? I don't know but I have to deal with that tomorrow as well.

Nick said...

Oh great blog of course.

Waxie said...

you say tomarrow, I say tomorrow...

Play_H said...

Hi waxie
I register for the Option Play Of the Week service secong week now. I am wondering what you think about the 160 AAPL Put? do you think we should hold them or take my big loss on them?

Disillusioned said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Jeanne Mancuso said...

Disillusioned,

If you're a conservative, risk adverse person I don't think this service is a good fit for you. As soon as Waxie sends an alert, it's naturally going to affect the demand for the option unless there is a huge supply.

I could be wrong but I don't think they're front running trades either. Scott told me he's paid not to trade.

The victim mentality never did anything for me...why do you read the blog if you think Waxie is unethical? Just curious.

IdahoMike said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
elross said...

I like your comments Beerguy - Keep them coming.
And your right, the GOOG's and Apple's may not be for the novice (which is me). But Waxie picks are not alway those. NEM, WFMI, and ZION have been very good for my account.
Maybe you and Waxie should get together and lead us all to financial freedom!