Wednesday, September 03, 2008

Thanks for all the well wishes...

I appreciate all the well wishes. It's been rough for my family, we are very close knit and it was sudden and my mother had just turned 65. We finished sitting Shiva last night but I am taking it easy for the time being. I teach my clients not to trade much, or at all, when they are out of sorts, and I am such, so I think I will heed my own advice for once (or twice!).

In the meantime, this market looks fairly ripe for a larger move down. I was hoping we would (we still may) get that move to 1350 everyone seems to expect on the S & P, but I think you can start to look at shorting some tech here. You see what's going on with commodities. It's very interesting. Now the financials are showing great relative strength. It's insane, but you gotta go with the flow and that's the flow at the moment. GOOG busts and holds below $460 watch $300s within 60 days I think. ORCL reports shortly and GS and LEH report shortly as well. It's again interesting that LEH now has all these rumors about being bought out by various parties. Perhaps it'll happen, but just remember that BSC had the same type of rumors before they went under. I'm not sure what LEH is worth. If it didn't have all the bad debt it would be worth a lot, but with it? I mean, I'm not an analyst so maybe I'm way off base but they are leveraged 20 to 1 and have billions of bad debt it appears still to be written down. How much of a premium can someone pay for that?

LAZ insiders selling 300 MIL in stock at $37 with the stock at $39 today. Hmm. I just don't know why that sector is holding up so well, although I do, we are ready for an election and the FED continues to put the proverbial finger in the damn!

Again, watch tech, it looks very vulnerable here, just like the Ag stocks and the solar stocks looked when I pointed them out before this tumble. GOOG, AAPL, RIMM, etc. look very vulneable. MSFT as well, which could easily fall below $20 in the next 90 days.

I'll probably see ya all manana. Thanks again, life isn't all the market, ya know?



Mario D'Agostino said...

I hope your doing good buddy. Love your trading systems (+1, 1/2 off, etc.) plus the 10 a.m. rule in my opinion is the best. God bless you and sorry about your mom, my prayers are with you.

Mario "Fats"

Waxie said...

Thanks Mario, appreciate the sentiment!