Thursday, September 04, 2008


Well, at least for investors. I have to say we should be thankful the market isn't 7000s which is where it should be right now. The fact that even after today we are over 11,000 is AMAZING. This market is so vastly overvalued its absurd. GOOG, AAPL, RIMM and all tech is DEAD, just stick a fork in it and short it on any rally. It'll be interesting tomorrow morning. Trin was ridiculously high and the #s of course will be horrid, but we SHOULD get a bounce on the news unless the #s are just so dreadful. The interesting thing will be to see if it lasts and sustains for the day, or if its just another reason to short. It's a friday and we are oversold near term, and shorts have made a ton this week, so some short covering certainly is more than possible.

This could be an inflection point here. We are going to get cracked shortly, this could be it, or perhaps they mount one more BS rally attempt (maybe tw0) before the fall below 10,000.

I did say that the nonsense about oil falling and the market rallying was dead, and it certainly is. Oil can go to $50 and the market is still going down, sorry folks, its media nonsense that its connected. This is about a GLOBAL recession and a system wide failure that can't be fixed without a major overhaul. Oil has nothing to do with that unfortunately. If it did it would be an easy fix. The media and government like to pin oil and commodities because they can use NONSENSE agendas like offshore drilling and solar energy and say that that will help the economy. Blame things outside your control. REALITY is that this was created by policies that have spanned both Democratic and Republican watches. It's been in the making for a very very VERY long time (several terms). Greed created a society that has had no fiscal responsibility or self monitoring. It's created a "buy now" and worry later society where the average savings rate is less than ZERO! It's created this idea that everyone DESERVES to own a house, even if they can't afford it, and it was created because corporate greed/profits has run rampant. The stock market should be 7000s on the DOW and 1200 on the Nasdaq. OR LESS! That's what most companies are worth. Yet we have this insane notion that we deserve 10% returns on our money every year and that along with everything else has helped foster an insane situation where we can only go DOWN ultimately. GOOG is $450. When its $100s let me know cause that it where it's going. People forget that stocks used to trade for 5 X's earnings. This market still has companies trading at 10 or 20 X's REVENUE. That can not possibly be sustained. All we can do is trade it up and down. I hope we stay over 10,000 for a while, but I think by year end we should be below that level. If and when we lose 11,000 it may get very ugly very fast. Of course, with the election upcoming the Fed will do more BS things to try to artificially pump up the market. Those rallies have been and are SUCKERS rallies. Buying them for more than a trade is absolutely idiotic.
Some of the safest shorts are; MSFT, CSCO, INTC, and many of the big cap techs and banks. I still can't believe C isn't under $10 yet. It will be. COF should be $15 and it's $42s still. Next week will be very telling, folks, stay tuned and stay the course! RULE
Oh, Option Trader called GOOG puts today, they were up about 50% intraday. Ho Hum, that service is ROCKING!


1 comment:

Erik28 said...

CRUSHED IT on the BCSI puts!! Salivating when it oopped after that ER.
-sold 1/2 for a double, a few days after ya called it.


How do ya like SKF @ 106.50 in the AH today?? I Gobbled it up!

I couldn't pass it up, if i wanted. Hope it doesn't gap up, ONLY so i can buy calls monday AM.

Do you think the brokers will kick off the finacial short party w/ earnings in 2 weeks?

Or will it rage when the banks report in 6 weeks?

that AH rally looked too suspicious, as a trap..for the rah rah longs

Curious your sentiment when the finacials will CRACK here again??