Thursday, September 18, 2008

Welcome Comrades!

Good evening, today the United States of Communism informs you, as a citizen, that you have certain rights that relate to your party affiliation. Today I will detail those rights and tomorrow your illustrious, and nurturing, party will take good care of you. However, if you choose not to obey the party, we will simply take you outside and shoot your head off. Your body will be emailed to your former family, since as a traitor to the state, you will have no rights and no family. The state IS your family. If you are a short seller, you are automatically wanted for treason and you face a mandatory life imprisonment, with in extreme cases - death by lethal injection, which Comrade Kerkorian will gladly, eh, I mean sadly administer. This is for your own good, it will hurt your country more than it hurts you, trust me! We have now gone over the edge, folks. Trust me, this Fed has set us up for a MAJOR depression that will last for many years. You simply can not have the government basically take over the stock market! Now, before anyone says "oh, he's just short, so he's mad!" No, actually we nailed the EXACT low! I said 10,500 buy it heavily. I am not short ANYTHING and in fact had my best trading day in a long time today. I NAILED the day, as we've been doing for a while. So, I was happy we did what we did. BUT, its all confetti at his point. The Fed is setting up a sick and I mean SICK downturn that they will be unable to stop. Further, the notion of not letting anyone short the stock market is INSANE. Next thing you know they will tell everyone that they can't sell any stocks either. I mean, why not? Why not make it so that you can only buy stocks and never sell them. Then the market will go to 75,000 on the DOW and 25,000 on the Nasdaq within the next year. That'll be great. Of course your money would be worthless, so making it won't matter, it'll be like paying for things in jellybeans. Now, is that enough on that subject? I could go on and on and on, because this is the absolute WORST POSSIBLE scenario. I have spoken about the perfect storm this whole year. Well, this is what happens when you have an election year. OK, OK, I'll stop, but you have no idea how disasterous this is. It once again gives the market a false sense of security that will be completely bashed once again. Get used to it, we live in a communist country now. Do you realize this is what Pakistan did? What Valenzuala has done, what Russia has done? There is absolutely no way this ends well. NONE. And, anyone who plays this for more than another short coverin BOUNCE is going to get CRUSHED. Did I say you have no idea how bad this is or will be? OK, I'm done, but one more thing! I can not believe they are doing this and no one is stopping them. OK, so I'll admit it, I'm NOT done, but I will keep my mouth shut and be a good communist towing the party line! How's this for speaking my mind? Jeez, louise, I can't believe we are this dumb. Well, I'm not but they certainly are. Now, ok, why do I thnk its doomed to fail? That would take a long time to spell out, but suffice to say that the government is basically making YOU and ME stock owners and by doing so they are diluting the shares, thus basically buying bad debt and bad stocks that can't possibly go up, therefore it's like throwing money away. And, who will shoulder this nonsense? YOU AND ME, the American tax payer. And, why? Not because the whole system was going to break down, which is was and still will, but because this is an election year and both parties are so scared of looking like they aren't on top of things. And, unfortunately most people don't care or don't pay attention and just see the headines and the headlines will read tha the government is working in their favor, when in essence it's the complete opposite. This is setting up DEflation, less economic activity and even greater issues longer term. So, as far as the market goes, we'll see what happens, but just remember that the Fed has done dumb interventions several times this year and each time we rallied like we did today, and maybe a few days or a week or so longer and then rolled over to lower lows. I suspect that happens again, but let's see what shakes out. I basically have NO positions at this point. I want to wait and see what plays out, I'd be guessing for tomorrow since the news isn't all out. I would think we gap up and then from there I don't know. My GUESS is that we go higher tomorrow, there are a lot of shorts that still have to cover and its options expiration (triple witching) so volatility is the name of the game. See ya next week, folks, we are ROCKING! We had MS, GNW (went $4+ for us in about 45 minutes on a $5s stock! and many others! We also covered shorts and option Trader ROCKED once again! LM puts were sold at 1000% gain! Yes, you read that correctly, basially a 1000% gain. Might be 900 to 1000% to be conservative!). Wheeee! RULE - WAXIE

7 comments:

vs said...

I cannot agree with you more. I feel like taking those 0% offers on my credit cards and hoarding the money. Most likely someone will bail my debt out too. I work pretty hard to pay my taxes, and then see this happen. My 401k is down 13% for this year, with 30% in money market funds. That GS dump today was prety scary btw.

Erik28 said...

Waxie,

Great day. TR ruled it....! I Just upgraded to options trader, and of the plays called today, i felt the best w/ GNW.

So, within 20 minutes, I made $3,000 today on your GNW call today! as well as the market got me closer to yet another SWEET entry on another big batch of TWM!
(plus i love that TWM swing trade, for my IRA too, since i can short there!)


My total port is up 180% in the past 2 months!!! And for only the the past 3 months, i have been a member of trendfund....NOT a coincidence!! Keep up the awesome calls please! Thanks for all the work ya do. $$

I am also in 100% cash now.

I am mostly a swing trader, and I was curious your sentiment on the upcoming "Window Dressing" plays we might see here next week.

As next week is the last week of the qtr, and this week is the options. So any window dressing plays would go down early next week, i read to be likely perhaps.

GOOG and COF interest me the most, as they both actually report the DAY prior to OCT options expire.

GOOG-seems an easy entry, as if it can NOT break 455/460, which is it's same old old support neck line, its a great entry to me.

My question is on any other Highly Institutional owned window dressing shorts??

and VNO vs COF?

COF-what the hell would be a good gauge to plan this entry??? damn thing goes up alot...and would that mean it's less potential to be a window dressing end qtr sell off, since it has not "underperformed" for the QTR, like let's say GOOG?

Do you like VNO or COF better as a up-coming short right now?

Curious your favorite potential window dressing SHORT plays for next week. (besides GOOG perhaps)?

thanks!!!

Ming said...

Waxie,

You are so good. You wrote down exactly what happened today in your yesterday's blog. There is so much we can learn from you and tiny.

May I ask you another question about brokers? Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are clean and still make good money, why they are down so much recently? And MS is larger and cleaner company than Merrill Lynch, but it worthes less than Merrill Lynch now. It does not make sense to me.

Thanks
Ming

Jeanne Mancuso said...

Waxie,

I'm the token liberal communist in my family so I figured I'd respond. If you think the government is taking the wrong steps I'd like to hear your solutions...let the banking system collapse on itself? Let the under their luck homeowners fill the homeless shelters because they had a dream of homeownership and bit off more than they could chew? So we pay a few more taxes...at least we're not choosing between buying medicine or food like some people. My rose colored glasses are on and I think we'll get thru this mess sooner than you think. How's that for balanced? You're not the only one that can rant. :)

Jeanne

thomas said...

This particular mess wasn't caused by the Fed, or Treasury, or any other government agency. It was caused by Wall Street bankers who failed to control risk. How can you trade credit swaps and other derivatives based on home mortgages that supposedly had a value of several times your capital, safely? It's like having used all your capital buying futures that are limit down every day, getting margin calls, and there's no way out. You die because all the potential buyers have died. It feeds on itself and spirals down until everything crashes and burns. All the bastards who caused it should be in some Manhattan jail but they'll never go. Enron wasn't the exception. They were the rule. Ultimately, it's all about greed and stupidity on The Street.

The government has no choice but to save it because the average working guy has his home and retirement tied up in this mess. Without him there are no pension funds or mutual funds to invest money in anything. There's no GDP, no spending and no economy, because 2/3 of spending is created by consumers, who work for a living. Without the working guy Wall Street ceases to exist, but he's been beaten to a bloody pulp by the ones he supports, the bankers and brokers, who have become parasites on real productivity through greedy and stupid actions.

The government is guilty of a number of unbelieveably stupid things with our money, but not this one in particular. What they are guilty of, if anything, is a lack of oversight while Wall Street jazzed the public. The same thing happened with junk bonds years ago. Anybody remember Michael Milken and Drexel years ago? At least he went to the can for awhile. Nothing's sacred when money is around, nothing. All the whores are wearing lipstick.

Waxie said...

I'll try to address all this in tonights blog.

Thanks for the feedback!

I'm curious to see where the futures open the session tonight. More than likely up. We'll see in a few hours.

sanjay said...

Gap up on monday ,Is it fadeable ?