Tuesday, September 09, 2008

But, but, but I thought we had bottomed!!!!

Ho Hum, another day, another reason to ONLY trade and forget the notion that investing is something that makes any sense whatsoever.

We rule this market, truly. They actually tried to rally us early and we shorted the hell out of it, catching ZION, COF, POT, and of course riding our GOOG and AAPL puts while those stocks continue to try to find their way out of the box of hell they are in. And, we even saw the usually unflappable Steve Jobs succumb to the old "evil hedge funds" spreading rumors about his health as the reason the stock is crumbling. Frankly, that's reason #1 to stay short AAPL for the long haul. Obviously its horrible the guy has had health issues, trust me I am not insensitive, but just say what's what. I think AAPL goes under $100, I stick to that call. I was called nuts for saying FNM and FRE go to zero before probably just about anyone. I was called nuts for saying RIMM sees $50 and its under $100 now. Or, GOOG to $150 and its about to taste $300s. GS will see under $100. MER will see under $15. WAKE UP and smell reality, this is what a bear market looks like, all the nutjobs who held FNM thinking that the Fed wouldn't let it fail, all the people who have held LEH while they keep saying nothing is wrong, the market and the EVIL hedgefunds are at fault! Yeah, sure they are. And, they also put BSC out of business, ah huh.

Let me know when ANY CEO or the Fed is held accountable for the COUNTLESS lies they have told and continue to tell in order to prop up their stock price, and at times while they sell their own stock. I would get arrested if I did anything remotely as EVIL as that. Tomorrow am LEH is supposedly prereporting "earnings" to try to stabilize the stock/company. Let me tell you something, there will probably be people buying LEH tomorrow, perhaps the stock will squeeze. My view? They are TOAST, and any rally is shortable. have you noticed what happens EVERY TIME we rally on Fed intervention, or some idiot CEO who says everything is fine? Last week FNM and FRE said they were FINE and WELL CAPITALIZED! They have been saying that for MONTHS, and yet anyone with half a brain knew they were going under. Duh. And, one of the "HEROS" of the market, Bill Miller, apparently bought $150 MILLION worth of their stock recently. Didn't the guy read their 10K? Didn't he look at their balance sheet? Look, I'm not infallable, I make a lot of dumb trades, and losing trades. Buying FNM and FRE, or BSC or LEH or ANY financial here long is not something I would do. EVERY SINGLE DAY they come onto CNBC saying that the bottom was set in July. Yeah, sure it was. Look at the AG stocks, my one regret here is that I knew they would fall like this, my timing was off as I thought I'd have a better entry. Can't win them all, but our clients remain HOT AS HELL and racking up the BIG Ka-chingos!

As I write this the futures are up all around. Today we were down MORE than we were up yesterday, if that doesn't tell you its time to TRADE and time to FADE any and all up moves, babies, I can't help you, and you are wasting your time reading my blog.

Best shorts here;

and just about anything tech, TWM is a good way to play the impending meltdown in the Russell folks. Should see north of $100 in the not too distant future.

Me? I'll trade 'em as I see 'em! If I'm long it's for a trade and if I'm short, it's sweet and petite and it's for as long as I want to ride it. I have a feeling that the next retest here we are gonna see around 10,500 or lower. Mark it down. Oil is now $100 and we still fall, hmm, wonder who said that would happen!

We are in psychotic market mode, folks, and that makes it, at times, like shooting ducks! Quack quack goes any analyst who says to buy financials here.




Nick said...

Wonder how the beer guy is doing?

beach2788 said...

Waxie on the money again!! Waxie nails another market call.

AAPL, FNM, WM, the list goes on....

I would have made more money if Tiny had not posted such bullish and tenative market commentary, Tiny kept posting on the site wait till we break the bullish flag pattern, so I held back.
Next time I go with Waxie. I guess Tiny helps Waxie from getting out of line, sort of a reasonableness test.

I only have enough capital to do one maybe two calls at a time, so I am real careful what calls to play. A couple more doubles then I can start rolling, I hope.