Thursday, September 25, 2008

TOTAL JOKE

OK, so seriously folks, for those of you who are NOT members, you are really hurting yourself at this point. We are completely blasting this market and nailing it to the post! I suggest you sign up for SOMETHING, this is the best trading market since 1999!

We had a BUNCH of winners today, including RIMM SHORT for a big gain (plus its my top choice from the TOP TEN TECH SHORTS class I did a few weeks ago! In after hours it hit nearly my $75 target! I think its headed to $50 or less ($25 sounds about right).

In the meantime, this bailout package is a total TOTAL joke! It's insane, they keep trying to plug the Hoover dam with a finger!

It's not going to work, no shot in hell. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, it will not work. The problem is simply too big for them to fix.

A little while ago Washington Mutual basically went under. The branches and the deposits were taken over by Chase. Once again, Chase is pretty smart, they get the best stuff and leave the rest to the government!

This is going to get MUCH MUCH worse, folks. I watched Booyahhead today, I try not to cause I can't take it, but I did just for you guys!

The things I do for ya 'all! Wowsa!

OK< so first off, the guys been saying to buy RIMM for a long time, all the way down. Now its cracked and he is saying to hold it. I'm sorry, RIMM goes MUCH lower, folks. Who with any market savvy tells people to hold stocks into 50% haircuts!

OK, then he recommends Wachovia and Goldman (of course). Let me tell you this flat out, so I am perfectly clear. Wachovia is on my DEATH list, I think it goes under. I've made a lot on it SHORT, so have our clients. I think its DONE, FINI, its got a very similar makeup to Washington Mutual. now, maybe I am wrong, its possible, but who recommends these banks long in this market? You have to be INSANE! And, he did it a couple weeks ago when it was $20ish! How's he doing? I mean, enough already!

And, Goldman (GS)? Folks, GS will see $50 or my name ain't Waxie! I think it sees lower than that, frankly. As I said last night, Buffet did NOT invest in GS! It was a LOAN and they bought him to try to salvage a dying business in my opinion. It's time for people to WAKE UP!

This market party is OVER, so stop and learn and eat your losses and take whats left and put it somewhere safe. The government in my opinion CAN NOT save this. I wish they could, but you know I am constantly warning and calling it as I see it because I care. I don't make money if the market goes down, but I want you to protect yourselves! This market is going MUCH MUCH lower and the people who keep saying now is the time to buy are either on crack, or just in denial. DO NOT BE IN DENIAL!

RIMM today - AAPL tomorrow. GOOG the day after (I am short all of them).

Look, I am not always right, au contrare, but I am rarely wrong about my market calls. I am so strong on this one, take it with a grain of salt at your peril. This market is trading very badly. I have this sinking feeling we are gonna wake up one day soon to a market that is SERIOUSLY done, like toast, like 1000+ maybe 2000+ down. You can say I am nuts, thats fine, but so far you all see, I lay it all out here. I don't pull punches. I WISH, no I PRAY we would go up and be solid and hit a REAL bottom. That would be awesome. BUT, I don't see it happening for a LONG LONG time. You need to play the bounces short term and look for reentries to shorts when we do bounce. The market is telling us its in big big trouble, we need to respect that.

Look at today, we rallied really hard on NO VOLUME and I am quite sure we will sell the news. In the history of the market we have never been saved by outside forces from reaching the proper levels. You can't artificially bump up a market, yet they keep trying.

And, whats horrible is that no one has a clue, they just scramble around, and I am sure it is well meaning for the most part, but they scramble around and they keep trying to throw a band aid on an amputated leg!

What will work?

Sorry to say - NOTHING in this system, the system is broken, its not going to be fixed.

So, what do I suggest? Many of you will say I am insane, you already do. We need to shut things down for a month, or however long it takes to get a REAL solution.

The stock market will go down several 1000 points, and thats GOOD. Yeah, I know, its crazy. Ah huh, its going there anyway, might as well get it over with all at once and rebuild. Thats the only way it'll happen.

And, this idea that taxpayers will get money back? ROFLMAO, thats nonsense, the stuff they want to offload isn't worth anything! This isn't the S & L! It's just not. You can't sell this stuff.

They are trying to please everyone when they should be telling everyone the REAL truth and then just saying its worse than your worst nightmare but we are CONSULTING with 100 of the greatest economists in the world on a solution. We are going to all lock in a room for as long as it takes and get as close to a consensus as possible. We are NOT going to consult with the politicians. We are going to handle this with brilliant people who have NO AGENDA. Booyahead will NOT be invited to this party! Me? Honestly, I think I should be there only because I really don't give a crap about anyone agenda or ego. It doesn't matter, it'll never happen, they will just keep blowing it up worse and worse.

I'll tell you one thing spiritually I have learned, and its the hardest thing for me to do sometimes. GRowing up on the streets and begging and doing whatever I had to do to survive, you don't learn to sit back and take a deep breath. I was told by a very wise person once that the thing I needed to learn more than anything is to STOP, and DO NOTHING!

It sounds simple, but I am so used to reacting, most of us are, we live in a world where things get thrown at us all the time. Yet sometimes the BEST thing we can do is - NOTHING.

I see it with my two girls, they are awesome, but sometimes they can get worked up or work themselves up and I've learned that if I can help them to just BREATH they are almost always fine very soon thereafter. See,if you breath, and you know you are breathing and aware of it, you can't be panic stricken, you can't be really upset, you are concentrating on your breath. I learned that in Yoga.

Our leaders need to BREATH. The impulse to rush to action is not going to help or solve this crisis. I wish it would, but it won't. And, they need to learn from their RECENT mistakes, they keep throwing a glass of water on a Forest Fire and then they see there are more fires they didn't put out. It has to stop, it just has to. Yes, we all want action, but right now INACTION and NOTHING in my opinion is the best thing we can do and its the only thing we should do.

And, let me say this, Paulson and Bernanke should NOT be leading us in this. They helped lead us into this and they have their own agenda. I laugh when I hear them say that the only thing that maters is the tax payers! Be real, they don't believe that and they certainly haven't acted as if thats true.

We need to have a moratorium on action for let's say a week, and then have a REAL open session where we get REAL answers to real questions. Watching the hearing this week says to me there is a lot being covered up. Enough is enough, let's forget what happened in the past and let's get some hard honest answers so we can access the situation and make the tough choices. This isn't about Dems and it's not about Reps, or Socialism or Communism, this is about the people of this country trusting a system that has failed them and having the RIGHT to know the TRUTH!

And, our leaders have an obligation to NOT act, but to let us in on the secret party so WE can make an informed decision and we can get some brilliant people OUTSIDE the system to give us THEIR feedback.

Do you ever think about the fact that we have, as do other countries, some unbelievably smart people? People who have spent their whole lives studying this and people who called this well before me or anyone on the street did.

There are too many partisan issues here. You know another thing I've learned? If the whole thing goes BOOM, it don't matter what your religion is, politics, color of your skin, sexual preferences, it just don't mean a dang thing. The whole thing, folks, is going BOOM, wake up and let's smell the roses together!

Keep writing your reps and tell them to just DO NOTHING until we sort this out. They are acting like scared chickens. Trust me, if they have to do something this bad, this fast, then anything they do isn't going to work anyway.

The market, my friends, goes WAY WAY DOWN in the end no matter what, get used to it and join us so you can LEARN TO EARN!

My new SHORT list is being given a week from today, be there or be square!

RULE!

WAXIE

9 comments:

Ming said...

Hi Waxie,

Thanks for writing a long blog and sharing your thought. Tomorrow seems a decent gap down? Is it fadable? I still have some longs brought last Thursday, shall I cover them immediately? Will the bailout pop up the market at least for a short term?

I still think the package will do good to the country, although it may not be enough. But I can be wrong.

Thanks

Waxie said...

Ming,

I hope you are right. No one sane wants this to happen, but it is happening.

I don't think 700 MIL will help, I think it will hurt. Look so far, they spent 30 BIL on BSC, 200 BIL on FNM and FRE, 85 BIL on AIG. Did ANY of it help? No, why would 700 BIL help? Don't believe the hype my friend. I hope Im wrong but logic usually works in life and logically it can't work, they are out of their league and paulson is partly to blame since he knew this.

sanjay said...

I thought i was the only one who does pranayam!!!

Rich said...

I agree with your comments today Waxie, although I don't think that the people we vote for that are running things are going to do what is best for us, the taxpayers. Nor do I believe that they will change. I probably believe more in some of the conspiracies than you that basically say that the government and Fed are in it for themselves and their buddies at the intentional expense of us regular folks. The reason I feel this way is very simple. Look at how they live as compared to how we live.

Here is what I believe really needs to change: "WE THE PEOPLE"! Look at how we generally view politicians. They are the butt of a plethora of jokes, but when you consider that most jokes are typically based upon truth I would say that the underlying root of the jokes is actually anger and not humor. "We the people" need to get in touch with our anger. This is still a government FOR the people and BY the people. The real reason things are the way they are is because we accept the system, the politicians and the lies and we DO NOTHING about it. I have heard people, when talking about the problems they see with our government, throw out disclosures that they love America and are pro-American, as though speaking negatively about our government is a bad thing and makes them bad Americans. What makes a person a bad American, in my opinion, is accepting all of this BS that we are constantly fed and not DEMANDING honesty, integrity and impeccability from the people that we entrust to represent us and make decisions for our benefit. If I remember correctly, this country was born out of that desire, wasn't it? The US has become what we originally rebelled against to form "a more perfect union". Ironic, isn't it? Until WE collectively take action to bring that change about...no matter what it takes...things will only continue to spiral downward.

The system doesn't work. I believe that the VAST majority of the people that we vote for, at least on the Federal level, have greedy agendas that have nothing to do with the well-being of the people of this country. We have had AMPLE proof of this for at least a few decades now. How much more proof is going to be required before we do something? The politicians are not going to change it. Why would you expect them to? They have very cozy lives with great benefits...all at our expense!


As for the markets, you and Tiny simply ROCK!

Take care.

Rich

Waxie said...

Rich,

thanks for your commentary, I agree with the notion that being a great American involves speaking against the current (or swimming against it anyway!). Somewhere we as a nation forgot that. I think fear breeds hatred. I hate to get all philosophical but 9/11 cost us a lot more than the devastation it reaped. Part of terrorism is breeding fear. One of my favorite films is the original Night of the Living Dead. that last scene is so poignant, and its a horror film but an allegory. When you are in fear humans tend to do irrational things and anyone who does or speaks out against it gets reamed. Our country was founded on freedom of speech and belief. I don't agree with what I hear from a lot of people, but I try to hear their viewpoint and at least give them respect. There are people who are loonies and obviously no one is perfect, certainly not I. But, fear is dangerous. Look at this situation, I honestly believe that many of our elected officials DO care. I can't buy your ideology that money means that much to everyone. It doesn't to me, I hope. I think many of the people I heard in the hearings do care a lot, but the fear level is high and they are not acting like leaders, some of them, more like scared rabbits. Again, FEAR is a dangerous thing if its acted upon. I've done it, most of us have and usually our actions out of fear are wrong. I've heard the acroynism - fear = false evidence appearing real.

The system is falling apart, but history shows that you don't fix things that are falling apart by throwing money at it. A car that's got 150,000 miles that gets broken often isn't going to not get broken no matter what you do to it, unless you rebuild it and give it a new base.

Nuff said! Thanks for the comments! And, yeah, I wish people would protest or do something. Its kinda nuts that we have as a nation become such automatons at times. I think we are so used to be apathetic that we just kinda go along for the ride. This should be discussed. It's amazing to me that people say all day "oh, President Bush said some really great things last night!"

Really? I don't want to bash Pres. Bush, its not his fault, but he didn't say ANYTHING. Did I hear it wrong? What did he say? We have a problem and we will deal with it, thats all I heard folks. Did you hear something else? I didn't.

tokyoyoyo said...

Waxie,

You are amazing. I read & watch everything from Brinker to Cramer, often to do the opposite or hop a short long ride. You alone have this market nailed.
I trade out of a SEP IRA, avoiding wash rules and cap gains. I can only short through QID, DXD, SKF .etc. Par for my course, I went long DDM today at the close, thinking " Maverick " was gonna ride into town, close the gate on the corral and take credit for rounding up the cattle. Ole Maverick arrived, saw the gate was closed and just had to go check the cattle, causing a stampede. I guess ole Yoyo is gonna get trampled.
It's all timing. Congrats on your astute and seemingly never ending GREAT calls, and thank you for sharing on this blog.

I hope they don't close the casino.

Thank you.

Brain said...

Hey, Waxmaxster, I enjoy your insights, I check what you have to say every morning. They have thrown alot of curve balls out there in the market. I have been watching Mr. booyahead for about a yr off and on. I really try to believe that he is out to help, but I have come to the conclusion that he just over does himself trying to be right, Thats a big fault of his and he usually is more wrong then right. As you know in this game you can't have that! He needs to regroup and get real. The lastest thing telling viewers to take the bailout,Now that takes the cake. I may as well throw myself in front of a speeding train because it would have the same outcome to agree with that! Anyways thanks for your Blogs< Hope you and yours are doing well! Best reguards!

Rich said...

Hiya Waxie,

I was, as seems to be a frequent occurrence lately, feeling pretty infuriated with our government and the situation with the markets. Yes, I do believe that there are probably officials who are more interested in money and power than maintaining a humble attitude and focusing on serving the people and trying to improve the state of things. Honestly, I really don't know. I watched a program yesterday about people who had won the lottery and the messes that they made of their lives as a result of the money. It was funny that most of the people they interviewed responded as though it was the fault of the money. I don't believe that money changes people. I believe money is more like the "Ring of Power" from Lord of the Rings...it brings out the true character of a person. Don't ever underestimate what a person would do who has tasted the feeling of power that comes from having money. If money hasn't had those types of effects on you then congratulations... you are an honorable man and one worthy of my vote!

The reason I sometimes feel the way I expressed in my previous post is because, when I look at the state of things, I can't believe that intelligent people could let things go so wrong for so long, but perhaps you're right and fear was the driving force behind the choices that have led us to where we are now.

As I'm writing this at 5:30 in the morning, PST, I'm watching a three way interview between Pasani and two other guys and two of them are screaming over each other...as is often the case on CNBC. It's amazing to watch people who are supposedly intelligent grown ups behaving like pre-school kids fighting over their tinker toys. Sometimes I wonder if the whole world is just a bunch of little kids in grown-up bodies trying to play grown-up, acting like they know what they're doing, but really don't have a clue and are so afraid of being wrong and having to admit it that they would rather barrel ahead and build on one bad choice with more and more bad choices.

Anyway, I'll do my best to not bring my rants to the forum here. Since you've "waxed" philosophical here I'll share that I have done several past life regressions and have been some form of warrior, including a Samurai, in some of my past lives. I guess I still have a warrior's heart, although I do remember to "breathe" now from time to time. :-)

Take care,

Rich

locan.BBS said...

Dear Waxie,

Just found you!

Been following the Grapevine a while and finally got here!

I come originally from LA (no, not L.A., Louisiana) and left the States over 40 years ago, for the same reasons you mention in your blog. I realized then already what you are talking about, that things will have to get A LOT, LOT WORSE BEFORE THEY GET BETTER!

But that was a different generation from yours, that was even before the "Beat"-Generation.

Then I was one of a kind. Nobody, but nobody realized that at that time. At least in my part of the States. Later, in college I got some peyote, realized a lot of things....

In the meantime I've been through all the spiritual stuff, just like you are doing. It's apparent to me from your blog ("BREATHE").

To cut a long story short: Now I'm retired and living in a Hare Krishna community in Germany (near Frankfurt/Wiesbaden).

We don't "speculate". But what you are doing seems really TRUE INVESTMENT, something like Buffett but more like a RENEGADE (modern Robin Hood). What else can one do? - Make suicide bombs?? Without money you can't change much in this society!

So, I am with you!

I have been trying since about two years ago to help out my little community with stock market "work". Being retired now, I can't get a normal job any longer. But mainly been losing money at it. It's not like 40 years ago, when I first began investing(before my spiritual adventure). Today hedge funds, computers and high tech systems have changed all that.

The "normal" investor has no chance I think today up against "smart money". He has to "get educated or get out"!

So I would like to join you, if I may, if it's not too expensive (not so much money left after the market took its cut already!).

Any way a "poor" guy like me can take part in your program from Germany? In your book and DVD offer, for example, there is no space for international addresses ("country") only U.S. ("state").

Sorry to write so much, just wanted to get a little off my chest!

Thanks in advance!
Lorenz Funderburk