Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Tic Toc...

The clock is ticking to the next bounce AND the clock is ticking til we really roll over. The psychology of this market has clearly changed and rallies are now shortable until proven otherwise.

When we were going straight up one of the best tells was the Options market. Calls were being bought on stocks well beyond the normal volume they might otherwise have, and those stocks were rocking. Well, we have the exact opposite now, stocks are getting huge put buying and then following the "smart" Option money down. I gave the idea (and played) MSFT puts based on this and the stock dropped to a low of $27s today, making the puts almost a double in a day - again. Of course, we also had GMCR into the split, the calls, which was a yuk-foo. SRS, FAZ, tho, have more then made up for that doggie.

It used to be that the Options market often worked as a contrarian indicator and was often used that way, now the market almost acts are a fulfillment center for the buyers of these puts and calls. Either way, its important to keep an eye on the Options market for an overall view, and for individual stocks (btw, I sold ALL my MSFT puts today early on that push down but may reenter shortly on a bounce).

Today was interesting, I was only around for part of the day cause I unknowingly got a TIC (hence the blog title) on my thigh. What's interesting about that, at least to me, relates back to trading, and perhaps some about life. I'm a city dude. I love the outdoors, hiking, biking with my girls, kayaking, etc. But, ultimately I'm a city dude born and bred. I was upstate outdoors this last weekend and I did some of those things, and this a m when I was showering I noticed this "thing" which I mistook for a plastic knob or something stuck and protruding from my leg, and dumbly just pulled it out. When I went to the doctor later cause my leg was killin' me she of course knew immediately and I was like "duh" of course. How could I not know?

Well, cause I've never had a tic, and often times in life you need education, and experience in order to identify patterns that you can then hopefully emulate and translate into success.

I'm developing a program along these lines that I'll be talking a lot about that won't just be trading oriented, in fact it'll mostly not be. It'll be about fulfilling your destiny and how to do so.

In grade school the cliche was "there's never a dumb question". Well, I disagree, over the years I've been asked a TON of dumb questions. I've asked my own in my life. So? The cliche shouldn't be that, it should be "there's never a question that can't enlighten". Or, something like that. My life is about living dreams and helping clients hopefully succeed so they can live theirs. Today I got a few emails thanking me/us for what we do. I always appreciate that, truly.

So, thank you. As far as the market and trading, just cause you don't know there's a tic, doesn't mean you can't learn. If you can identify what you are lacking in education wise, then that's a very good first step to success.

I get in trouble as a trader, or life, if I don't listen to the signs, and the signs right now say LOWER overall. We will bounce shortly, but I think you have to listen to the signs pointing lower overall for the time being.

Speaking of education - This weekend we're doing the OPTIONS BLITZ, a 3-day ALL OPTIONS - ALL THE TIME OPTIONS webinar, including 1-day of LIVE trading with ME and Scott. There's still time to sign up. Please email me and/or ilene; or and let's see if we can rock the options world. I believe this will be the BEST Options seminar we've ever done. I'm excited and the class should be rockin'.

Remember to watch 1100 on the S & P. I think we'll try to bounce again intraday here if we hit it but the rallies haven't had much conviction and that's not a great sign for the Bulls. I just don't see why anyone would be in a rush to buy here. I stick to my call on AAPL below $200, GOOG below $400 and PCLN below $150. I'm hoping we get a really nice playable bounce shortly as I plan on buying some July or August puts on them more then likely. We'll see what shakes out, in the meantime, let's just keep playing the market as it comes, cause that's the only way we know how.

Tic...I hate tics I've decided, but as with the market, even things that hurt (like losers) can teach us many valuable lessons. This Tic taught me a lot, it taught me that next time I see something sticking out of my thigh I'll assume it's a Tic until proven otherwise.

Tic toc, tic toc...the market's out of time longer term, and we're in time shorter term.

Rock on...I'm beat so don't mind me if I'm a tad incoherent.

See ya on the other side,-

Michael "Waxie" Parness

No comments: