Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Window Dressing and 2010

Remember, Window Dressing basically ends in 1 1/2 days. Volume is so light, I'm out of some of the Window Dressing plays as of yesterday. Sold 1/2 my AAPL calls 2 days ago near the highs on this move = sweet. Still in about 1/2, and will sell if we don't get a pop,and certainly before the New Year.
Why? Well, thats the trend, baby, the trenddddd...

January Effect stocks still rocking, I sold some more and will buy some back perhaps on weakness.

It'll be a very interesting few days as investors battle traders jockeying for position.

I think 2010 is gonna truly be the year of the INTERNET. Not sure as far as stock prices, though I think AMZN and GOOG and PCLN remain pretty stable so far and should at least outperform the market. What I am pretty sure of is that as people deflate, which is where we head first before inflation sets in later, then the internet is that much more appealing. I feel like a lot of this move is part and parcel of that thought process. WMT is trying to out-AMAZON Amazon, but I don't think they can and I think AMZN can out WMT WMT online. Yeah, AMZN trades at very high multiples, but if I am right then that may contract a lot. It's very interesting from a business perspective to see how businesses really just dominate whole sectors when they get this big. 10 years ago many thought AMZN would do this, in between them being right the stock went all the way down to single digits. I wish I was smart enough to have bought some AMZN calls way back when when it was single digits. but lo, I simply wasn't that smart.

1st quarter earnings should be VERY good. Cycle wise they could peak this quarter, or next. I think we're still buying dips here into earnings, but then I think we should get a very nice and potentially deep selloff. I expect a split year market again, though arguably 2009 wasn't really a split year, since the split was January to March and then the next 9 1/2 months we were bang-zoom UPPPPPP.

I can see S & P 1300s, though I doubt it goes much past that, if and when it gets there. I guess if I'm wrong about the dollar and it actually weakens and we INFLATE rather then DEflate, then yeah, the DOW could realistically see new all-time highs, as sick as that sounds. If not, then I suggest good shot we're headed toward 8000s on deflation and on dollar strength. Remember, that carry trade once it unwinds is gonna be a serious downer for the market. Stay tuned...

2009 for me has been whipsawed. I had a great start of the year, then got into a car accident March 5th and called the bottom, but obviously didn't expect this type of move and missed much of it, and also got slammed pretty hard. Thankfully my first piece of the year enabled me to hold my own, but clearly I wish I caught more of the move up then probably the 1st very little sliver.

For those that caught that bottom and stuck with it, I congratulate you. Ya beat me, hehe. That is for sure.

In the meantime, I'm making 2010 the year of my good health and good trading, feel free to join me and remember - RULE!

See ya on the other side of 2010...

Michael "Waxie" Parness

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