Thursday, March 26, 2009


Today FINALLY CNBC was all over the GS fiasco. Hopefully it gets some legs, I mean my Gawd, we probably spent $50 MIL in covering and dealing with the AIG Bonuses that amounted to $170 MIL, this conspiracy is $18 BIL just with GS and over $50 BIL total!

Man o man, enough is enough, bring down the filthbags! Bring 'em down!

OK, so again we ROCKED marketwise, as predicted, finishing at HOD.

It's kinda funny watching CNBC a bit today in between doctor visits and hearing nearly everyone tell all the sheeple that the bottom really is in, and that this strength just proves it.

Hey, what do I know, I'm just a Waxie, but this 99% what I've discussed here lately. We are in Window Dressing and Mark to Market heaven.

My friends, perhaps I will be wrong, but I am praying we go up into the mark to market some more because I will be making a nice sized wager on the short side once that news comes, and I do believe the move down will be substantive. I also think SRS is looking tasty here, as is FAZ, though its a little early for FAZ with mark to market, but financials are certainly beginning to wane. Now we are getting what I expected, which is the laggards all playing catch up. Volume is putrid but no one mentions it, watch for a day where we get just a nice volume spike over the next few days, that should mark the intermediate term highs. DOW can see 8500 near term if we get some momentum going on a bigger squeeze.

Also, GS off this news will eventually get some push down. Only thing that held it up from $105 area today was the market itself, it wanted to sell off all day.

OK, I'm very tired and going back to bed, happy trading tomorrow, hopefully these posts are helpful to you all!




Sitebuild said...

Waxie, your book "Rule the Freakin Markets" kept me mentally alive while serving my year in Iraq. I read that sucker five times. Admittedly, there weren't too many other nonfiction books of any worth to read, but Rule was a good read.

I know you despise the penny market, but do you have any comments about the WaMu vs. FDIC and JPM situation?

SilverSurfer said...

It seems like there's gonna be some action on the GS front. Lookie here:

I am hoping we see some more upside on GS first because I will short or grab some put options for the inevitable ride down.

Jim Murphy said...

Very helpful Waxie. Now I know to look for DOW 8500 and a volumn spike for the high as well as the Mark to Market decision. Thanks to your help, my last 3 days have averaged a little more each day than my monthly retirement check. Hope we continue to go up into the 2nd trading day in April based on seasonality and get the vote next Thursday or Friday. Then I'm with you on making some significant wagers or your choices which should soon get me to the point where I can afford to become a NINJA member. I plan on buying your book as soon as my credit card cycle ends so I can get the float for 25 days.
If I had pressed the downside the last time, I would have the funds now to support NINJA membership but I had a lot of trouble during the bear market rallies and also rarely seemed to get more than 1/2 positions that I really wanted thinking I could get the other 1/2 later but wasn't comfortable risking my already winning positions by adding since they were moving so fast. Like you said once before these Ultra Bear 3X's and their options "act like stocks on steriods". I find the options move faster than a lot of our investments moved during the previous 30 years! So, I sure appreciate all your support and advice. I hope to make the next party you have with your very successful, happy students. Need to get my cash account up another 20K. The retirement account which, thanks to your help has recovered to summer of 2008 levels and so has my wife's. I started a UTMA for my 5 year old grandson and it's up 50% from 3K to 4500 without the use of options, since mid-Feb. I could never have done this without your guideance and direction. Hope you recover soon. It's a shame that accidents happen to such a nice person. I have no idea what we are supposed to learn from things like that except perhaps, we should realize how short and fleeting our lives really are and we should thank the one who gives us another day to enjoy while we're here on earth. Love you man. If I can get thru the next transition without any collateral damage and put 200 shares on all your 3X/2X choices and 300 shares on the 1X or pick up 4-10 options, I'm confident I'll be ready to party with the successful trendfund members at your next gathering!

In Debt We Trust said...

How GS manipulated oil prices last summer:

rob in texas said...

hope things are returning to normal sounds like you got knocked off your feet abit im sorry you had that happen to you and wish you better days ahead i know you said you have had a great 1st quarter maybe if you took a half mil and stuffed it under your mattress it would relieve some of your pressure points just trying to cut up abit holding faz 17.50s on your call it was sniffin the 40s just 3weeks ago it looks early to me as well might have to buy some 10 calls next week they just keep getting cheaper thanks for the chat and the guidence i needed it

Jeb said...

Some insightful people like Claus Vogt say that major bear market rallies end on low volume, but you say to wait for high volume to mark the end of the intermediate peak. so does that mean you don't agree with Vogt or does it mean the end of the "intermediate term highs" are not the end of this bear market rally(before we see new lows) ?

Nuova said...

Hi Waxie,

AIG was/is in the business of providing insurance. GS is in the business of buying/selling securities and purchasing insurance against those investments.

Ignoring the question of whether US GOV should have bailed out AIG or not in the first place, it should be assumed that the money infused in AIG would be dispersed to other companies as insurance payouts.

The only problem/issue here is why GS got the most of the payout. It is understandable that the previous Treasury Secretary and his staff came from GS. So GS has the most clout in the disbursement of the funds.

Don't you think that this is the case in every situation. He, who has the most clout, gets the most out of the office.