Monday, March 09, 2009



OK, so not quite, BUT I said it yesterday, I think the banking sector probably has bottomed for a few days at least. I am long the banks, with hedges (MS and GS look putrid, but WFC, USB and others look a lot stronger here)

And, tech is next to drop is what I said, wha-la GOOG and AAPL bye bye, see ya.

We should get a bounce here Tuesday unless more bad news hits. We showed signs of wanting to bounce Monday, there's just no follow through. I'm thinking we should get some small bounce, at least, Tuesday, as a sneak attack bounce.

I had a very nice day, woosey and all, this market continues to pay the TRENDS off HUGE. Gaps have been AMAZINGLY fadeable and if you aren't playing them with us, you are costing yourself a boatload of cashola, folks! Nothing is guaranteed, but we are really killing this market. We had USB off the gap down for $2ish, we are just killing this market - KILLING IT!

I'm hoping we gap down Tuesday, I think it'll be a great buy on the financials. Remember, when people think they might be missing a rally they will pile in. I subscribe o the theory that people are much more worried about missing a rally then they are about protecting their cash. Plus shorts will need to cover, so...let's see what shakes and go from there. I'm basically bedridden for a few more days, so I'm proving that you can make money trading from anywhere, I did it today in my undies in bed under the covers in between naps! How's that for a testimonial? "Dude, you can make BIG Ka-chingos, dude, in your undies!"

But, it's true and you can do it, too...dudes and dudesses!

OK, so enough of my bluster. Thank you all that replied to the request for infomercial participants. If you still want to, there's still time, we'll be shooting this Saturday and we're looking for good stories so we can share the lovely little thing we call Trend Trading at!

In the meantime, I gave you my opinion, I would be hedged long the financials here and buy the dips until we see otherwise. That doesn't mean an all out buy buy buy, hedged means exactly that, I am long some and short some, though net longer then shorter and most are with options (puts and calls) so downside is contained if wrong.

Have a good night all, I'm hitting the hay pretty soon! ROCK AND ROLL!

And, most of all - RULE!


*Oh, I wanted to make one political comment, growing up I hung out with a lot of gamblers. We were these Jewish kids who worshipped Italians, so I walked around Queens speaking Brooklynese (not every Italian speaks this,in fact most don't, but the ones we imitated did, fyi). We rarely were winning gamblers, though we had our moments. Some of us, including me, had good "opinions". Now, those of you who know gamblers will relate, cause every gambler thinks he has the right idea/opinion. They know which horse will win, they know which team will cover the spread, and they know, well, they know EVERYTHING. Thing is, even those gamblers I've met (including myself) that had legitimate good opinions, or insights a little more than maybe others, perhaps, usually lost. Why? Because gamblers are notorious for big egos (opinions) but low self esteem, or follow through, OR they spread themselves out too much and even when they are strong on something they wouldn't have any money left to take advantage of it cause they would lose on all the other games or horses, or poker hands where they weren't so sure. As a trader I've seen many traders with good opinions get smacked, that's why we preach money management so hard. When I use poor money management myself I lose a lot more often then I should. That's why we strongly urge clients to Plan your Trade and Trade your Plan!

OK, so whats the political comment? Right now, in my opinion, you have too many politicians acting like gamblers. Not just gamblers, but the worst kind of gamblers because they are gambling with our money, yes, but most importantly, our future and our children's futures. There are things that they have strong opinions on and they fight hard on, as well they should. Right or wrong, a person has to be true to their convictions. I respect that, even if I don't agree. What's happening now is that NO ONE can legitimately have a strong conviction about what the government is doing. How can I say that? Because we are in unchartered territory, there is nothing historically to base opinions on. Yet, instead of taking baby steps, they are acting like gamblers and going "all in" with our money, our future and our sons and daughters futures. I've given up being affiliated with any party, I think they both suck, frankly. Too many agenda's, and yes, too many opinions. Bad opinions. The stock market is just a reflection of this, when people don't know what the rules are, they can't value a companies worth, short or long term. Now, for us traders it's all good, the market doesn't know what its doing, but for us that creates volatility and that's all we need to create profits. It's ironic that that knucklehead congressman who introduced HR 1068 says that traders are gamblers. There's a saying that when you point one finger, three point back. I think that apropo in this instance. Traders are not gamblers, quite the contrary. There are traders who gamble, but traders themselves are not gamblers. Unfortunately I can't say the same thing about politicians, they seem to like gambling, and as with most gamblers, they continue and will continue to lose on nearly every bet until they get some help. Problem is, no one seems to be asking anyone in the knows opinion, they just quabble amongst themselves. Bush didn't create this, neither did Obama, they just keep it going. Shame on them all, Republicans, Democrats, whatever, they are all putting us all at risk.

Trading is gambling? Yeah, sure thing, we've made money the last two years, how have investors done? We've made money the last 11 years, how have investors done? If we're gamblers, then we're not the ones who need a 12 step meeting. PA? Politicians anonymous perhaps? 'Nuff said.

Actually, another short thought, hehe, gamblers also like to chop themselves up, so do some traders. I've done it myself at times. Go long, market reverses, go short, market reverses, go long again,etc,etc,etc. That's exactly what they are doing now, no taxes, yes taxes, no stimulus, yes stimulus, whatever it is, it ain't working.

RULE...and don't gamble!


Jeanne Mancuso said...


Your blog begs the question, "Boxers or Briefs?". :)
Just being a wise need to publish this. Hope the pain meds are working.


FACTOR R said...

waxie i know that you dont like GS,and MS even when you a bull in banks i know just for a 2 or 3 days but GS and MS made a great move today wouls talk about that ???

Danny said...

Waxie, Just to add to what you were saying about gamblers, if traders are considered gamblers, then insurance companies should also be considered gamblers. Yet they are bailing out AIG and complaining about traders?!