Tuesday, March 03, 2009

Finishing up and moving onward and upward (or downward!)

OK, I literally fell asleep while writing the blog last night. I had gotten a ton of requests to comment, so I felt compelled. I just wanted to finish up by saying the following about our culture of consumption...

Again as I write this the futures are gapping up. Again today on CNBC and elsewhere there were tons of pundits proclaiming that now is the buy of a lifetime, that we are nearing a spectacular rally and that the bottom is in!

I want to submit to you the following. It is exactly this attitude, and our seemingly never ending persuit of that all elusive "bottom" that is the over consumption.

How you ask? Because this thinking is exactly the same as when my 7 and 5 year old girls ask me when they are going to get ice cream. Their reasoning can be several things, it can be that they just finished eating, they were good, or they ate something good for them (healthy that I wanted them to eat) and thus they deserved dessert.

The REAL and only question that investors should ask is what is REALITY, what are these companies REALLY worth. No one asks that question, they ask where the BOTTOM is. Instead of doing ANY work, they just want to be told where the bottom is. Instead of doing ANY work, they want it handed to them, for no other reason then they deserve it!

The question is not where the bottom is, then, it is when should you buy stocks that are actually good investments based on reality, and not pulp fiction. I've NEVER heard that. Do you believe that every day some other IDIOT treks on saying that you should buy financials. I mean, seriously, who the hell thinks for real that these stocks 50,000 years from now will be worth ANYTHING? Because if you do, cool, email me and ask me for my bargain prices on the Brooklyn Bridge, or the next hot real estate deals in New York City's FAMOUS sewer system! It's UNBELIEVABLE, I laugh and then want to puke when these morons are allowed to say such irresponsible and obviously completely ignorant things. And, before anyone tells me that everyone is entitled to an opinion, and that I myself preach that, that only applies to ANYTHING that is remotely sane. If you ask a homeless person for his opinion on the latest bottle of Dom Perignon champagne, he or she may offer you an opinion, but it is highly unlikely to be based on him/her actually tasting it! Well, that's exactly the same thing. these "analysts" clearly haven't tasted financial stocks. These stocks are almost all going to ZERO. At this point even my harshest critics take me seriously. ZERO. You couldn't pay me 90% of the share price upfront for me to buy most of these stocks, even the $20 or $30 ones if I had to hold it for a year or more before I could sell. I think in a year most are unlikely to exist.

So, there ya go, until people understand that this is NOT the buy of a lifetime, that this has been the SELL of a lifetime, all we will get are bounces and rallies that fail ultimately.

From here I think we are not that close from a capitulatory move. Watch for a volume spike on a fast move DOWN. That would be a nice entry. I still think SRS has upside as commercial real estate is SHOT. I also saw the news on GOOG afterhours and luckily (or just smart) our Options Traders clients have puts on GOOG. Tell ya, we really are ROCKING! Today's action was sick, another stupid gap up on no news, only to be cracked. And, it may happen again tomorrow, so let's rock again!

In and out, out and in, baby!



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