Thursday, March 12, 2009

Did ya see FAS closing price?

Hmmmmm, coincidence perhaps! WHEEEEE!

OK, so now the talking heads are talking about the REAL bottom, 20/30, perhaps 40% more upside!

Awesome. And, there may very well be follow through here, I certainly don't want to get short just yet. 7500 is next real resistence on the DOW the way I trade. Then comes 8000 in a bigger move higher. I'm not sure here how high this goes, or doesn't go. If it wasn't clear who's manipulating the markets before today (it should have been anyway) it is now. The market za-zoomed once everyone got a wiff that they will do something ridiculously inappropriate and devastatingly destructive to the longer term economy (and investors) by redoing mark-to-market rules. I've spoken here about why this is probably the worst thing they can do, and another example of how letting people who are clueless run things and make decisions on things they are clueless about is just leading us on a path to potential civil unrest down the road, or worse. In my humble opinion, and in scary Dead Zone Waxie premonitions every perfect storm of economic destruction is being enacted by the powers that be. Anyone with half a brain knows that mark to market MUST not be messed with, even the damn bankers themselves say not to mess with it! Even Buffet says not to mess with it! And yet, here we go again, doing the exact opposite of what they should, and refusing to restrain themselves EVER.

Didn't anyone in government ever hear the cliche - when in doubt - DO NOTHING!?

I mean, this is very scary, folks, very scary indeed. But, what do I know?

I just keep hoping I'm wrong, and perhaps I will be. Perhaps.

So, here's where we are, kinda where we've been quite a few times, which creates some nice trading opps. First off, if we were to gap down on no news tomorrow it's probably a free money long on financials. HIGHLY unlikely they don't at least go red at some point and good shot they get further follow through. Remember, most people who have missed this move will want to get long stocks like WFC and AXP and BAC and FITB, etc.

If you've read the blog then you've heard me say that it's my experience that most investors and money guys are more afraid to miss a rally then they are to lose money staying in a trade too long, or catching a falling knife!

AXP at $13, WFC at $14, and even HBC at $25 are all "cheap" compared to where they were. I missed a couple trades today, and Friday I'm dealing with doctor stuff, so I'll miss some more, but thank you for all the great testimonials, keep them coming!

OK, I did want to mention one thing and make it clear, why I don't know, but I'll do it anyway. You may have noticed that I really don't edit myself much here,hehe. I speak my mind and if I've gone back and erased more than a couple dozens lines over al the blogs its probably a lot. I comment on a lot of things, some of them harshly, I give my opinion and I am a passionate person, or so I've been told.

I don't sit in judgement of really any individual unless they put themselves out as holier then thou. That's probably my biggest pet peeve, if I had to label one. Yes, I can be a blowhard, but anyone who knows me knows I am my own harshest critic. I like to be perfect, and I am far from it. My history is fairly unique, some would say (some wouldn't), I make no qualms about it, I've done and been through a lot. I've lived a life that is not free from many mistakes, though I have very few regrets (unless you count bad trades, or missed trades, hehe!). I don't need to go through my life's experiences, but suffice to say that I've been no saint, I've lived on the streets, I've been a tough guy, I've been a sweetheart of a guy, and I've sent my share of nasty emails (ok, so I regret some of these), and made just a ton of mistakes. I like to think that I'm ever evolving, and I've found that to be true of myself. I admire people who are open to change, and who are capable of knowing that life is fluid, if you let it be fluid, and it'll bite you in the ass if you fight its natural flow. I've found myself, and refound myself, and at times perhaps lost myself.

So, why do I write these things here now? Because I think it would be hypocritical for me not to admit to my mistakes when I write harshly, at times, about people in the industry (or outside it). We live in a society, I think, that loves to idolize and iconocize people and things. We also like to find scapegoats to blame. Bernie Madoff is the devil, right? But, you know how I feel, that the US banking system is a helluva lot worse, it just hasn't been caught yet. Wall Street is evil! Traders are gamblers! Short sellers are unpatriotic! We like to label things as a society, put them neatly in a box, it makes things infinitely more manageable, right?

No, but it's easy to blame one person, or a group that is associated, then it is to look at the broader issues we face as a nation, and as individuals. I love that scene in The Ten Commandments where Edgar Robinson gets everyone to worship the golden "god". Even after Moses freakin' was super cool and saved everyone and delivered them from evil. I mean, the dude turned his staff into a freakin' snake, brough Lotus, killed all the 1st born, and parted the ocean, but the short guy with the Brooklyn accent still wants them to worship the dang Golden idol! Rable Rousers prey on fear. We can all fall victim to it, I know I'm not perfect. When things are tough fear can take over anyone's mind for a moment or two. I talk about integrity a lot because I feel like I at least try to live my life with it, and I am disappointed in myself if I don't live up to my own expectations. That doesn't mean that at any given moment something stupid, I'm a work in progress after all. BUT, right now there is an awful lot of rable rousing going on. Politicians have, in my opinion, fallen victim to fear. Fear of not being reelected, fear of being blamed (Hey, Bernie Evers was once idolized by the same people who ripped him apart, same with many many others, same with Alan Greenspan, etc), and fear that they not do the right thing. This is a very dangerous time, and I appreciate people who are opinionated, even if they disagree with me, as long as they respect mine, and as long as they don't speak their own as Gospel. As long as they don't become the Golden Idol!

Maybe this doesn't make sense at all, probably not, but I just wanted to throw it out there if only to remind myself that I always want to be part of the solution, and not part of the problem. So, keep your criticism coming, and your positive energy, it's all good. I certainly am not perfect, that'd be boring anyway. Just maybe next time you see a talking head claim to know it all, maybe think twice, or three times that perhaps they maybe, just maybe, know very little, or perhaps - nothing at all.

Remember to RULE always, lets see what shakes out, watch the insurers, they could get a nice bump further, HIG, MET, PRU are a few, AFL as well. I own HIG, fyi.

And, if none of this makes any sense, its cool, cause I have an excuse, hehe, I'm on some painkillers! Thanks to all those that came to my book release party, you know who you are, and I love ya all!

And, for those of you who still haven't ordered the book, what the hell are ya waiting for dudes and dudesses?



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