Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Quick thoughts...

You guys and gals, I really am taking some time off, believe it or not.

Since many are requesting some thoughts, here they go;

Market should be bought on dips here for several reasons;

1)End of the month window dressing and end of the quarter window dressing. Stocks and sectors to watch; Tech (IBM, GOOG, BIDU, AMZN, YHOO) stuff thats up on the year, Banks - see below for reason #2, and some solar stocks like FSLR, and stocks like FCX, FLR, etc. that have performed well this quarter. I'm not a huge fan of engery here, but I could see them getting another nice bump as well.

2)News on mark to market is due in the next week, I find it difficult to believe they will sell the financials before this happens. I do, however, think that we will have a tremendous shorting opportunity once that news is released. Tremendous. Keep your eyes open and be patient. Until then I would be looking to buy the dips. If you watched me on FOX on Friday I nailed what was going to happen! Ka-chingo!

OK, for tomorrow I would look for the market to fade a gap up and perhaps suck some shorts in before we get a bounce. If we don't get a bounce wednesday then Thursday is almost a sure bet to. So, I would not rush in to buy the open if we gap up (gap down I would be a big buyer), but watch the tape and if they slam us down on a gap up, I would look then to fade that move as well.

As far as the "great" bank plan. Dudes/dudesses, have I taught you nothing? Grasshopers and Praying Mantis', have I not given you the tools to fish a bit on your own? A market that is run by the govt is a market that has to fail in the end. This rally is completely govt generated, at some point they will run out of bullets and that'll be that. Until then they will keep coming up with hair brained ideas to try to salvage things.

BOttom line is, they are throwing a $1 TRIL lifeline when the problem is AT LEAST $5 to $6 TRILLION, and in my estimation, more like $20 to $40 TRILLION. You do the math! They will keep coming back and asking for more, and as it keeps failing they will then have no choice but to Nationalize the banks, which they should have done in the first place!

The irony is, they are so intent on overtaxing the "rich" in the country, rich meaning $250,000 or more. In NYC $250k barely allows you to pay your rent! That's certainly not wealthy. But, lest I regress, they are going to let the BILLIONAIRES like Pimco and the like make 100 to 500% on the toxic assets and the taxpayer is on they hook! We make zero and assume all the risk, the private sector will make billions if this works at all and we'll make $1000 for cabs or something.

So, the ultra rich get richer and the middle and lower end get zilch. That's ABSURD and untenable, yet thats whats happening. So, these guys can make billions and the taxpayer will still lose money I am reasonably sure. But what? Is it to get some PR? Yes, yes, yes! SYS!



liuxinabc said...

Will MTM be suspended next week? and if it does, will that trigger a violent rally or sell off?
Can someone explain me pls?

Jim Murphy said...

Thanks Michael. That confirms the plan I had chosen, however, I need to confirm that my own ideas aren't sure loosers with an experienced trader and your the best I may ever know. Appreciate your thoughts. Rest/recover well. Hope your ready to get back in the saddle soon. murf

amdman said...

Dude, hope you're feeling better. Thanks for taking the time to comment on the current market.

I feel blind being led by BooYah head in market direction, I'd much prefer your take... (or Tiny's). If none of your are available... I'd ask my 4 year old nephew.


Julian S Smith said...

Brilliant post Waxie! Precient, clear, logical and helpful

Rich said...

"OK, for tomorrow I would look for the market to fade a gap up and perhaps suck some shorts in before we get a bounce."

Absolutely NAILED IT!!!

Awesome job Waxie!!!

FACTOR R said...

waxie we need you men !! just love your blog more and more !! dont stay away that long !!!

In Debt We Trust said...

Waxie, do you think we are in deflation or inflation at this point?

ION said...

I consider your blog just as valuable as SPOW/OPOW, perhaps even more so. It puts the market in context and generally points me in the right direction as far as market sentiment is concerned. I also enjoy your periodic rants against the unending craziness taking place around us. No one is right all the time, but you are close. I know that the silent majority feels the same way....Keep up the good work.

mauiman said...

The harder we rally, the harder were going to fall.