Wednesday, March 04, 2009

Bottoms and such...

A few years ago, actually it was 2002, I was asked to write a song for the Howard Stern show using a popular song about "bottoms" and while singing it I was supposed to spank a hooker on her, well, BOTTOM!

I had mixed feelings about this, but it seemed inocuous enough, sorta, so I agreed to write the song. I used a Dido song which was popular at the time, think Flag was the name or something like that and the start of the song was "Has anybody seen my bottom."

Even Howard Stern was fed up with talk about Bottoms! I never did the show, and we eventually did reach that bottom in 2003 (which we nailed PERFECTLY!). Todays meager rally has many pundits saying that the bottom is in. This is it! CNBC even trekked out guys who were right about the Bear market who now are bullish to prove that this is it! Booyahead called the bottom! (his last bottom call was July of last year at 11,000,fyi,so he's done well with his bottom calls!)

I've written extensively here that there is no such thing as a bottom, its just a dumb fantasy, its all #s, so who cares. What, now we are going to go to new highs? I mean, its ludicrous, but people in general like to feel warm and fuzzy and the fantasy that we aren't going to go any lower makes people feel warm and fuzzy. So, they want it defined. I understand the psychology of it. It's just annoying to talk about the same nonsense day in and day out.

The market very well may get some upside here. I spoke about that last night and thought we were close to getting a relief rally. I do not feel we have remotely bottomed, in terms of how its being used (the word bottom), but Bear markets get vicious relief tradeable rallies. If we gap down tomorrow (futures are down right now), baring bad news its a screaming buy for a trade. The gaps have been killing it these days, even today we faded the initial move before zooming higher and then selling off end of day. I lost today, first time in a while, I kicked myself because I thought we'd see some follow through into days end and we just sold off hard and it definately was not what I thought. See, even I am wrong sometimes! Hehe!

I've gotten so many emails recently (today) about bottoms, I just wanted to address it. You guys and gals should not worry about such stupidity. Just play the market as it comes, we're not going to go to 8500 so fast, let alone new highs (not ever happening again in my opinion), so a nice relief tradeable rally would be wonderful to set us up to catch that up and then ride it back down.

Watch APOL, I think this thing can see teens eventually, We had puts on it before and I think it sees much lower near and long term. And, thats the thing, bottoms are meaningless because look at today, the market rallied hard even with the selloff midday (roughly 150 pts) and yet APOL and many financials were cracked. So, whats good for one stock may or may not be good for another. Our job is to keep an open mind and seek trades both long and short.

I am going on a school field trip with my daughter tomorrow so I doubt I'll be around much, if at all. GOod luck in your trading - rock on!


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