Is relatively meaningless, other than I called it right...until the last hour! We gapped up big, faded and then ramped up HUGE, only to fail and close back where we started the day basically!
It's hard to imagine us not getting some kind of pop into the mark to market hearings, I hope so, I think we go down post that. This is strictly a govt market. Market is moving on govt news and when there is no news we sell off, and after the news comes we sell off. People think the rally off the lows marks some significant rally. Not really. What it marks is a rally into a very worthless piece of news that will come Thursday supposedly.
It's funny that no one has picked up the story from a few days ago where the Fed said that the bank stress tests need to be modified. Gee, we wouldn't want to have a real stress test where some banks could and should go under, would we?
What rubbish and what a joke! Today was a tough day to trade, I really thought we'd go out at our high of day off the mid-day move and squeeze. We just couldn't get any relief from sellers stepping in late day - again. It'll be interesting to see what shakes here, the futures are down decently, I would look to fade it but from there I just don't know and I will not be around all day for the most part.
I should be able to do more next week or the week after, in the meantime, just remember one thing and one thing only! RULE! RULE RULE!
Still loving SRS post mark to market or if we just roll over here.
WAXIE
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Monday, March 30, 2009
I've been thinking...
That tommorrow's setup should be gap up, fade and then good shot we rally from there. I wish we would just run right into the mark to market hearing so that the selloff would be intense, but unfortunately the GM nonsense short circuited that notion, so we'll just play it by ear.
I wish I had the time to write a book about this time period, it's just sickening. Every day more and more total BS and lies, garbage nation. I would take off your financial shorts for a couple days into the mark to market hearing, we should run into that. I guess we could keep selling off here, tho that would surprise and disappoint me. Whatever it is, it is.
That means SRS is a sale as well tomorrow here. Again,thanks for the well wishes, I am out for a while tomorrow at more doctors, but I feel that I'll be 75% in a couple weeks, which I am going to relish. No need for more well wishes, some prayers would be fine with me. In the meantime, I'm really beat, so short and sweet it is. Anyone who says this market is strong is on crack, and you all know - crack is whack...
RULE
Waxie
I wish I had the time to write a book about this time period, it's just sickening. Every day more and more total BS and lies, garbage nation. I would take off your financial shorts for a couple days into the mark to market hearing, we should run into that. I guess we could keep selling off here, tho that would surprise and disappoint me. Whatever it is, it is.
That means SRS is a sale as well tomorrow here. Again,thanks for the well wishes, I am out for a while tomorrow at more doctors, but I feel that I'll be 75% in a couple weeks, which I am going to relish. No need for more well wishes, some prayers would be fine with me. In the meantime, I'm really beat, so short and sweet it is. Anyone who says this market is strong is on crack, and you all know - crack is whack...
RULE
Waxie
Sunday, March 29, 2009
If they can LIE about GM, how can ya trust them about the BANKS?!
OK, so now Obama has gone back on what he's been saying over and over again, that bankruptcy for GM basically won't happen. Again a politician double talking = shocking!
I have to say, its rather disturbing the road we have gone down and I fear it will only get worse. NY is about to pass a bill taxing anyone making over $300,000 extra.
These are very dangerous precedents they keep setting all out of FEAR and as you know FEAR = False evidence appearing real.
I don't mind the excess tax except it works against commerce. It is absolutely ignorant and fear based to prosecute sucess. We should go with a Flat Tax rather than do what we are doing. At least that makes sense. I'm a small business owner, if I get squeezed I have no choice but to lay people off because it cuts my margins down to nothingness potentially. I'm one of 100,000s of small business that are impacted by these things.
I was watching video on Bloomberg this evening showing riots in Europe where they destroyed anything representing wealth. The rhetoric out of Washington is very dangerous, it fuels this fire that gives creedence to the notion that wealthy people are bad and should be punished.
I am in process of writing an article about the foolishness of the path we have embarked on. We simply can not continue down this path without putting our entire political and economic system at severe risk of complete breakdown. Anarchy feeds on rhetoric and chaos. When people are depressed, or angry (they are on the same plane) its almost always easier to look outside oneself, and to cast blame, often casting a net that encompasses whole groups. Racism is usually about self hatred. If one is content with onself its very hard to hate others. Much terrorism springs from poverty. Not all, but a lot of it.
Much of the rhetoric coming out of Washington, unfortunately, is based on their own fears. Fears for their jobs, fears that they will face the nations wrath. Pinning "Wall Street" as though that's actually something that is one big thing is just as ludicrous as racism. Not all the people who work on Wall Street created this, in fact probably 99% or MORE had as much to do with it as all of us in a culture of consumerism. Yet politicians speak of it as though its the birthplace of Lucifer, or greed. That's simply not true, it's a ludicrous picture. Yes, there are pieces of it that are certainly liable, but targeting everyone just creates anarcy and encites hatred to the point where many people who got bonuses at AIG fear for their life.
What do I know about it? Some of you know, when I first started and made my reputation I got death threats in 2000 and 2001. 16 of them in fact. And, some threatened to fire bomb my entire family. Why? Because I was on CNN FN saying that the market was going to go down - WAY WAY WAY DOWN, and since I was right and I was on TV saying it was going lower, some people who lost a lot of money blamed people "like me" for their losses and their fear and misery.
So, yeah, I know a bit about it. I talked to the cops and the FBI, and hired body guards. Some people are just plain nuts and some get nuts under duress. We're all humans, and the ultimately truth is that we're all in this thing called life together. It is very disturbing that this administration, that was voted in under the auspice of bringing people together seems to have forgotten that under the duress of the reality that they stepped into a hornets nest.
Right now this country, in my opinion, needs to buckle down and really deal with reality and instead of just acting and reacting, take a deeep breath and take 30 or 60 or 90 days where they don't do a thing. We keep hearing this nonsense rhetoric that if they didn't do this or that that the whole system would fall apart. I find that hard to believe, as do many brilliant economists. FEAR mongering from Washington has created their own reality. Yes, look what happened when they let Lehman fail! This is such BS its beyond belief, and yet everyday this is quoted as though it is a fact. What a crock. It's self serving propanganda at it's finest.
Now Obama says that it might be best if GM declares bankruptcy. Yeah? Well, duh! But, you jokers were the same jokers who for months now have said it would be HORRIBlE if GM went bankrupt, that it would be devastating to the economy. Please, stop with the lies and deceit, the American people can handle the truth. By constantly lying you are creating a powder keg that is going to explode at some point, you are fanning the fires of anarchy, not avoiding it. Sooner or later we have to pay the piper. Let's pay it NOW and build from it, instead of trying to enable a system that is very very broken. Instead of acting out of FEAR, why not act out of honesty and deal with the citizens of this country as adults who care and are scared right now. Telling them lies doesn't do anything but give them false hope, and I believe false hope leads to disaster. Reality is much better, it may not be easy to digest but at least it's fixable. You can't fix something that you are constantly told is ok, when it isn't.
As I write this the futures are down about 2%. I'm wondering how in the world anyone is dumb enough to own bank stocks, or REIT's or insurance stocks when the lie about not Nationalizing may just come to pass a lot sooner then most believed possible. If they can lie about GM, what makes anyone dumb enough to believe they aren't lying about the banks?
Hopefully you got on board SRS Friday, I did. I think it goes back to all-time highs in the not too distant future, but we'll see soon enough! I'm a trader, so I'll get out of it if we start to move the other way, but ultimately I think commercial real estate is gonna be tough to go up.
As always, I hope I'm wrong, but I would rather be a realist then live in false hope. I've gotten so many emails asking me if Obama and Guithner have saved us.
Saved us? No one's saved anything, that's one thing you can take to the bank. You invest in this market for anything other than a trade, you are a SUCKER. How's that for clarity? Besides, if you make too much someone just might hate you for it and threaten you, too the way the rhetoric keeps coming from Washington. Why don't they look at Goldman Sachs? It's time to really investigate this stuff, and I'd start with Goldman, to me they are culprit #1. Did you see the article in Forbes about them probably manipulating the oil markets? Again, I do not believe it is a coincidence that GS and MS are the two left. GS was about to fail as well and the government intervened.
Keep your integrity my friends and don't believe everything you are told. This country was founded and will ultimately get out of this mess with ingenuity, and with capitalism. With rewarding hard work and thinking outside the box. If we make these things that this country was founded on "evil" and punishable God help us all.
And, thank you all for your well wishes, I'm off for another couple of weeks unfortunately, I should be ok, but am still in a lot of pain. Hey, it's a lot better then being fire bombed, though!
RULE!
Waxie
I have to say, its rather disturbing the road we have gone down and I fear it will only get worse. NY is about to pass a bill taxing anyone making over $300,000 extra.
These are very dangerous precedents they keep setting all out of FEAR and as you know FEAR = False evidence appearing real.
I don't mind the excess tax except it works against commerce. It is absolutely ignorant and fear based to prosecute sucess. We should go with a Flat Tax rather than do what we are doing. At least that makes sense. I'm a small business owner, if I get squeezed I have no choice but to lay people off because it cuts my margins down to nothingness potentially. I'm one of 100,000s of small business that are impacted by these things.
I was watching video on Bloomberg this evening showing riots in Europe where they destroyed anything representing wealth. The rhetoric out of Washington is very dangerous, it fuels this fire that gives creedence to the notion that wealthy people are bad and should be punished.
I am in process of writing an article about the foolishness of the path we have embarked on. We simply can not continue down this path without putting our entire political and economic system at severe risk of complete breakdown. Anarchy feeds on rhetoric and chaos. When people are depressed, or angry (they are on the same plane) its almost always easier to look outside oneself, and to cast blame, often casting a net that encompasses whole groups. Racism is usually about self hatred. If one is content with onself its very hard to hate others. Much terrorism springs from poverty. Not all, but a lot of it.
Much of the rhetoric coming out of Washington, unfortunately, is based on their own fears. Fears for their jobs, fears that they will face the nations wrath. Pinning "Wall Street" as though that's actually something that is one big thing is just as ludicrous as racism. Not all the people who work on Wall Street created this, in fact probably 99% or MORE had as much to do with it as all of us in a culture of consumerism. Yet politicians speak of it as though its the birthplace of Lucifer, or greed. That's simply not true, it's a ludicrous picture. Yes, there are pieces of it that are certainly liable, but targeting everyone just creates anarcy and encites hatred to the point where many people who got bonuses at AIG fear for their life.
What do I know about it? Some of you know, when I first started and made my reputation I got death threats in 2000 and 2001. 16 of them in fact. And, some threatened to fire bomb my entire family. Why? Because I was on CNN FN saying that the market was going to go down - WAY WAY WAY DOWN, and since I was right and I was on TV saying it was going lower, some people who lost a lot of money blamed people "like me" for their losses and their fear and misery.
So, yeah, I know a bit about it. I talked to the cops and the FBI, and hired body guards. Some people are just plain nuts and some get nuts under duress. We're all humans, and the ultimately truth is that we're all in this thing called life together. It is very disturbing that this administration, that was voted in under the auspice of bringing people together seems to have forgotten that under the duress of the reality that they stepped into a hornets nest.
Right now this country, in my opinion, needs to buckle down and really deal with reality and instead of just acting and reacting, take a deeep breath and take 30 or 60 or 90 days where they don't do a thing. We keep hearing this nonsense rhetoric that if they didn't do this or that that the whole system would fall apart. I find that hard to believe, as do many brilliant economists. FEAR mongering from Washington has created their own reality. Yes, look what happened when they let Lehman fail! This is such BS its beyond belief, and yet everyday this is quoted as though it is a fact. What a crock. It's self serving propanganda at it's finest.
Now Obama says that it might be best if GM declares bankruptcy. Yeah? Well, duh! But, you jokers were the same jokers who for months now have said it would be HORRIBlE if GM went bankrupt, that it would be devastating to the economy. Please, stop with the lies and deceit, the American people can handle the truth. By constantly lying you are creating a powder keg that is going to explode at some point, you are fanning the fires of anarchy, not avoiding it. Sooner or later we have to pay the piper. Let's pay it NOW and build from it, instead of trying to enable a system that is very very broken. Instead of acting out of FEAR, why not act out of honesty and deal with the citizens of this country as adults who care and are scared right now. Telling them lies doesn't do anything but give them false hope, and I believe false hope leads to disaster. Reality is much better, it may not be easy to digest but at least it's fixable. You can't fix something that you are constantly told is ok, when it isn't.
As I write this the futures are down about 2%. I'm wondering how in the world anyone is dumb enough to own bank stocks, or REIT's or insurance stocks when the lie about not Nationalizing may just come to pass a lot sooner then most believed possible. If they can lie about GM, what makes anyone dumb enough to believe they aren't lying about the banks?
Hopefully you got on board SRS Friday, I did. I think it goes back to all-time highs in the not too distant future, but we'll see soon enough! I'm a trader, so I'll get out of it if we start to move the other way, but ultimately I think commercial real estate is gonna be tough to go up.
As always, I hope I'm wrong, but I would rather be a realist then live in false hope. I've gotten so many emails asking me if Obama and Guithner have saved us.
Saved us? No one's saved anything, that's one thing you can take to the bank. You invest in this market for anything other than a trade, you are a SUCKER. How's that for clarity? Besides, if you make too much someone just might hate you for it and threaten you, too the way the rhetoric keeps coming from Washington. Why don't they look at Goldman Sachs? It's time to really investigate this stuff, and I'd start with Goldman, to me they are culprit #1. Did you see the article in Forbes about them probably manipulating the oil markets? Again, I do not believe it is a coincidence that GS and MS are the two left. GS was about to fail as well and the government intervened.
Keep your integrity my friends and don't believe everything you are told. This country was founded and will ultimately get out of this mess with ingenuity, and with capitalism. With rewarding hard work and thinking outside the box. If we make these things that this country was founded on "evil" and punishable God help us all.
And, thank you all for your well wishes, I'm off for another couple of weeks unfortunately, I should be ok, but am still in a lot of pain. Hey, it's a lot better then being fire bombed, though!
RULE!
Waxie
Thursday, March 26, 2009
SOMEONE'S BEEN READING WAXIE...
Today FINALLY CNBC was all over the GS fiasco. Hopefully it gets some legs, I mean my Gawd, we probably spent $50 MIL in covering and dealing with the AIG Bonuses that amounted to $170 MIL, this conspiracy is $18 BIL just with GS and over $50 BIL total!
Man o man, enough is enough, bring down the filthbags! Bring 'em down!
OK, so again we ROCKED marketwise, as predicted, finishing at HOD.
It's kinda funny watching CNBC a bit today in between doctor visits and hearing nearly everyone tell all the sheeple that the bottom really is in, and that this strength just proves it.
Hey, what do I know, I'm just a Waxie, but this 99% what I've discussed here lately. We are in Window Dressing and Mark to Market heaven.
My friends, perhaps I will be wrong, but I am praying we go up into the mark to market some more because I will be making a nice sized wager on the short side once that news comes, and I do believe the move down will be substantive. I also think SRS is looking tasty here, as is FAZ, though its a little early for FAZ with mark to market, but financials are certainly beginning to wane. Now we are getting what I expected, which is the laggards all playing catch up. Volume is putrid but no one mentions it, watch for a day where we get just a nice volume spike over the next few days, that should mark the intermediate term highs. DOW can see 8500 near term if we get some momentum going on a bigger squeeze.
Also, GS off this news will eventually get some push down. Only thing that held it up from $105 area today was the market itself, it wanted to sell off all day.
OK, I'm very tired and going back to bed, happy trading tomorrow, hopefully these posts are helpful to you all!
RULE!
WAXIE
Man o man, enough is enough, bring down the filthbags! Bring 'em down!
OK, so again we ROCKED marketwise, as predicted, finishing at HOD.
It's kinda funny watching CNBC a bit today in between doctor visits and hearing nearly everyone tell all the sheeple that the bottom really is in, and that this strength just proves it.
Hey, what do I know, I'm just a Waxie, but this 99% what I've discussed here lately. We are in Window Dressing and Mark to Market heaven.
My friends, perhaps I will be wrong, but I am praying we go up into the mark to market some more because I will be making a nice sized wager on the short side once that news comes, and I do believe the move down will be substantive. I also think SRS is looking tasty here, as is FAZ, though its a little early for FAZ with mark to market, but financials are certainly beginning to wane. Now we are getting what I expected, which is the laggards all playing catch up. Volume is putrid but no one mentions it, watch for a day where we get just a nice volume spike over the next few days, that should mark the intermediate term highs. DOW can see 8500 near term if we get some momentum going on a bigger squeeze.
Also, GS off this news will eventually get some push down. Only thing that held it up from $105 area today was the market itself, it wanted to sell off all day.
OK, I'm very tired and going back to bed, happy trading tomorrow, hopefully these posts are helpful to you all!
RULE!
WAXIE
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Why isn't GS under investigation?
Before I get into today and tomorrow, I just have to get it off my chest. Now maybe it's just me against the world, but why hasn't anyone brought up and made a big deal that, in my opinion, GS basically stole $18 BILLION from the US Govt and the US taxpayer. How in the world can they just take $18 BILLION for debt that was probably worth no more than 20% to 30% of that? Even if its 50 or 60% that's still a helluva lot of money. They all went nuts over AIG $170 MIL and wanted to lynch them, what about GS? We have serious issues in many areas, but this is a large part of the problem in my opinion. There is so much smoke and mirrors that we can't possibly dig ourselves out. It is amazing to me that GS is trading at $112 and every other financial stock is gasping for air. And, I am NOT short GS mind you. If anything I'd be long it here, as much as I think they are filthbags and slimebuckets. It must be true, they must be the smartest guys out there, or at least the most corrupt. They managed to help put BSC, LEH out of business and are basically the last man standing. MS don't look so hot longer term. Or, perhaps its coincidence that this has happened. One thing I'm not is a conspiracy theorist, but I find it hard to believe that there wasn't some coersion going on with GS right in the middle of it. But, hey, maybe it is coincidence that the day GS was about to go under like all the rest the FED came out and saved them. Perhaps...
It's funny, I listen to all these pundits and they all say the same nonsense. Today they are saying "the market has changed, its showing strength, its resilent!" Or, "today's action was very bullish".
What rubbish. Yeah, its very bullish that on the slightest notion that something is wrong we sell off nearly 300 points intraday. Yeah, thats STRONG baby!!! Wowsa! Oh, but we rallied end of day and that shows we are really strong!
No, you knuckleheads, it doesn't show anything, what it shows is that we have an upward bias into two very important TRENDS, 1 being end of the month window dressing and the 2nd being mark to market decision next week.
Now, I could be wrong, but I am definately trading that news, I think we sell off HARD, and I mean REALLY HARD unless there is something unforseen news wise. Futures are up pretty big as I write this so it appears we'll get some more early strength. I would think we may get the same setup as today, with a fade of an early rally followed by buyers stepping in. I thnk we almost have to see the other side of 8000 on the DOW now and they can easily drive the financials even higher. I sure hope so cause if I'm right about this setup of selling the news, we are gonna get one helluva short to rack up on. And, if I'm wrong we'll stop out with a small loss. It truly is a nice setup as long as we hold up in the market and rally into next week. Going to something like 8300 would be a really nice entry for shorting on the news, that would be sweet. Get WFC to $20s and BAC to $10s, I think we'll get some crazy good shorts on.
We shall see. I'm laying low but that will be something I am planning on playing. I wish I was playing heavy here from the long side, we are definately a buy the dip mode right now and its fairly safe, I think, to play that way here. I wouldn't chase a 100 pt gap up tomorrow, too many people are bullish again now. This is a suckers rally into mark to market I believe. We shall see, babies, we shall see.
Thanks for all the support, I'm getting better slowly, but not so surely. Pain is a great motivator and I'm motivated to take it easy. Enjoy the bullish ride, next selloff is gonna be a doosey. I've said it 1000 times here, you have to respect the tape, don't fight it.
You see our CLF for those that had it last week? Dang, we were a day late and a dollar short! I knew it would take off, and boy has it. If we rally harder look for $25 on it potentially. Some nice call buying on it today, so we'll see, its lagged the move and could have some more upside. I'd wait for 10 am rule or a pullback to entry, though.
Enjoy and RULE!
And, get my book! www.amazon.com and punch in RULE YOUR FREAKIN' RETIREMENT, by Michael Parness and order it NOW!
Waxie
It's funny, I listen to all these pundits and they all say the same nonsense. Today they are saying "the market has changed, its showing strength, its resilent!" Or, "today's action was very bullish".
What rubbish. Yeah, its very bullish that on the slightest notion that something is wrong we sell off nearly 300 points intraday. Yeah, thats STRONG baby!!! Wowsa! Oh, but we rallied end of day and that shows we are really strong!
No, you knuckleheads, it doesn't show anything, what it shows is that we have an upward bias into two very important TRENDS, 1 being end of the month window dressing and the 2nd being mark to market decision next week.
Now, I could be wrong, but I am definately trading that news, I think we sell off HARD, and I mean REALLY HARD unless there is something unforseen news wise. Futures are up pretty big as I write this so it appears we'll get some more early strength. I would think we may get the same setup as today, with a fade of an early rally followed by buyers stepping in. I thnk we almost have to see the other side of 8000 on the DOW now and they can easily drive the financials even higher. I sure hope so cause if I'm right about this setup of selling the news, we are gonna get one helluva short to rack up on. And, if I'm wrong we'll stop out with a small loss. It truly is a nice setup as long as we hold up in the market and rally into next week. Going to something like 8300 would be a really nice entry for shorting on the news, that would be sweet. Get WFC to $20s and BAC to $10s, I think we'll get some crazy good shorts on.
We shall see. I'm laying low but that will be something I am planning on playing. I wish I was playing heavy here from the long side, we are definately a buy the dip mode right now and its fairly safe, I think, to play that way here. I wouldn't chase a 100 pt gap up tomorrow, too many people are bullish again now. This is a suckers rally into mark to market I believe. We shall see, babies, we shall see.
Thanks for all the support, I'm getting better slowly, but not so surely. Pain is a great motivator and I'm motivated to take it easy. Enjoy the bullish ride, next selloff is gonna be a doosey. I've said it 1000 times here, you have to respect the tape, don't fight it.
You see our CLF for those that had it last week? Dang, we were a day late and a dollar short! I knew it would take off, and boy has it. If we rally harder look for $25 on it potentially. Some nice call buying on it today, so we'll see, its lagged the move and could have some more upside. I'd wait for 10 am rule or a pullback to entry, though.
Enjoy and RULE!
And, get my book! www.amazon.com and punch in RULE YOUR FREAKIN' RETIREMENT, by Michael Parness and order it NOW!
Waxie
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Quick thoughts...
You guys and gals, I really am taking some time off, believe it or not.
Since many are requesting some thoughts, here they go;
Market should be bought on dips here for several reasons;
1)End of the month window dressing and end of the quarter window dressing. Stocks and sectors to watch; Tech (IBM, GOOG, BIDU, AMZN, YHOO) stuff thats up on the year, Banks - see below for reason #2, and some solar stocks like FSLR, and stocks like FCX, FLR, etc. that have performed well this quarter. I'm not a huge fan of engery here, but I could see them getting another nice bump as well.
2)News on mark to market is due in the next week, I find it difficult to believe they will sell the financials before this happens. I do, however, think that we will have a tremendous shorting opportunity once that news is released. Tremendous. Keep your eyes open and be patient. Until then I would be looking to buy the dips. If you watched me on FOX on Friday I nailed what was going to happen! Ka-chingo!
OK, for tomorrow I would look for the market to fade a gap up and perhaps suck some shorts in before we get a bounce. If we don't get a bounce wednesday then Thursday is almost a sure bet to. So, I would not rush in to buy the open if we gap up (gap down I would be a big buyer), but watch the tape and if they slam us down on a gap up, I would look then to fade that move as well.
As far as the "great" bank plan. Dudes/dudesses, have I taught you nothing? Grasshopers and Praying Mantis', have I not given you the tools to fish a bit on your own? A market that is run by the govt is a market that has to fail in the end. This rally is completely govt generated, at some point they will run out of bullets and that'll be that. Until then they will keep coming up with hair brained ideas to try to salvage things.
BOttom line is, they are throwing a $1 TRIL lifeline when the problem is AT LEAST $5 to $6 TRILLION, and in my estimation, more like $20 to $40 TRILLION. You do the math! They will keep coming back and asking for more, and as it keeps failing they will then have no choice but to Nationalize the banks, which they should have done in the first place!
The irony is, they are so intent on overtaxing the "rich" in the country, rich meaning $250,000 or more. In NYC $250k barely allows you to pay your rent! That's certainly not wealthy. But, lest I regress, they are going to let the BILLIONAIRES like Pimco and the like make 100 to 500% on the toxic assets and the taxpayer is on they hook! We make zero and assume all the risk, the private sector will make billions if this works at all and we'll make $1000 for cabs or something.
So, the ultra rich get richer and the middle and lower end get zilch. That's ABSURD and untenable, yet thats whats happening. So, these guys can make billions and the taxpayer will still lose money I am reasonably sure. But what? Is it to get some PR? Yes, yes, yes! SYS!
Michael
Since many are requesting some thoughts, here they go;
Market should be bought on dips here for several reasons;
1)End of the month window dressing and end of the quarter window dressing. Stocks and sectors to watch; Tech (IBM, GOOG, BIDU, AMZN, YHOO) stuff thats up on the year, Banks - see below for reason #2, and some solar stocks like FSLR, and stocks like FCX, FLR, etc. that have performed well this quarter. I'm not a huge fan of engery here, but I could see them getting another nice bump as well.
2)News on mark to market is due in the next week, I find it difficult to believe they will sell the financials before this happens. I do, however, think that we will have a tremendous shorting opportunity once that news is released. Tremendous. Keep your eyes open and be patient. Until then I would be looking to buy the dips. If you watched me on FOX on Friday I nailed what was going to happen! Ka-chingo!
OK, for tomorrow I would look for the market to fade a gap up and perhaps suck some shorts in before we get a bounce. If we don't get a bounce wednesday then Thursday is almost a sure bet to. So, I would not rush in to buy the open if we gap up (gap down I would be a big buyer), but watch the tape and if they slam us down on a gap up, I would look then to fade that move as well.
As far as the "great" bank plan. Dudes/dudesses, have I taught you nothing? Grasshopers and Praying Mantis', have I not given you the tools to fish a bit on your own? A market that is run by the govt is a market that has to fail in the end. This rally is completely govt generated, at some point they will run out of bullets and that'll be that. Until then they will keep coming up with hair brained ideas to try to salvage things.
BOttom line is, they are throwing a $1 TRIL lifeline when the problem is AT LEAST $5 to $6 TRILLION, and in my estimation, more like $20 to $40 TRILLION. You do the math! They will keep coming back and asking for more, and as it keeps failing they will then have no choice but to Nationalize the banks, which they should have done in the first place!
The irony is, they are so intent on overtaxing the "rich" in the country, rich meaning $250,000 or more. In NYC $250k barely allows you to pay your rent! That's certainly not wealthy. But, lest I regress, they are going to let the BILLIONAIRES like Pimco and the like make 100 to 500% on the toxic assets and the taxpayer is on they hook! We make zero and assume all the risk, the private sector will make billions if this works at all and we'll make $1000 for cabs or something.
So, the ultra rich get richer and the middle and lower end get zilch. That's ABSURD and untenable, yet thats whats happening. So, these guys can make billions and the taxpayer will still lose money I am reasonably sure. But what? Is it to get some PR? Yes, yes, yes! SYS!
Michael
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Did you dudes and dudesses know...
That it's official, I am on the US 1st ever $1,000,000,000 (TRILLION) dollar bill!
Yup, I just got the word today, and man, I am so proud of myself! I was in shock when President Obama AND Treasury Secretary Paulson...I mean Guithner called and asked my permission. Since I'm on massive pain killers, I said YES!
PLEASE keep this under wraps, you guys and gals are the 1st to know this TOP SECRET info, and the Fed wants to keep it quiet til its unveiled. So, shhhhh!
I knew I could trust you!
OK, so I'm on FOX Business TV Friday around 2 pm, I was supposed to be on today but was preempted by the President (aren't they silly?). Stay tuned, I may just unveil the 1st Trillion Dollar bill! Tune in!
A few people (a bunch) asked me to comment on the Fed's move yesterday. You should know my stance, I think they continue to make every move I predicted, and it's all wrong. Thing is, if every other country wasn't just as screwed as we are, the US Dollar right now, and I mean RIGHT NOW would be worthless.
Who the hell is dumb enough to buy their own currency? That's what 3rd world countries do. That's what Zimbabwe does! We are clearly sacrificing the future for instant gratification, and the pity is, it won't even work in the short run (maybe it'll work in the very short term). This was perhaps the main reason we are in this mess, and here we go recreating it under the guise of saving the economy. It's absurd in my opinion.
You can not have any integrity of your money if you are buying it yourself! That's ridiculous! Yet, that's what we are doing.
ALL of this would have been and would be skirted had we nationalized the banking system. It's insane what they are doing. INSANE.
There ya have it, my simple opinion. The stock market very well may go higher, for now, but if you recall I said that the only way the DOW is over 5000 this year is if they devalue the dollar. That's exactly what they are doing. It's a total con job, like many other things they do. So, the idea is to make those $1 MIL homes stay selling at $1 MIL, but to do that they know they have to devalue the currency. If the US Dollar is worth 70% of what it is now, then that $1 MIL house may sell at $1 MIL, but the owner is only getting $700,000 in real money terms.
Instead of allowing the market to fall organically, they are artificially keeping it propped up, and at the same time they are destroying wealth and savings for EVERY American.
Anyone who thinks this is good and they have things under control is going to be very sad when they realize the truth, that the US Dollar today is worth at least 20% less then it was 2 days ago.
'Nuff said.
Watch X, CLF and commodities for further upside potentially and watch me on FOX Friday!
RULE!
WAxie
Yup, I just got the word today, and man, I am so proud of myself! I was in shock when President Obama AND Treasury Secretary Paulson...I mean Guithner called and asked my permission. Since I'm on massive pain killers, I said YES!
PLEASE keep this under wraps, you guys and gals are the 1st to know this TOP SECRET info, and the Fed wants to keep it quiet til its unveiled. So, shhhhh!
I knew I could trust you!
OK, so I'm on FOX Business TV Friday around 2 pm, I was supposed to be on today but was preempted by the President (aren't they silly?). Stay tuned, I may just unveil the 1st Trillion Dollar bill! Tune in!
A few people (a bunch) asked me to comment on the Fed's move yesterday. You should know my stance, I think they continue to make every move I predicted, and it's all wrong. Thing is, if every other country wasn't just as screwed as we are, the US Dollar right now, and I mean RIGHT NOW would be worthless.
Who the hell is dumb enough to buy their own currency? That's what 3rd world countries do. That's what Zimbabwe does! We are clearly sacrificing the future for instant gratification, and the pity is, it won't even work in the short run (maybe it'll work in the very short term). This was perhaps the main reason we are in this mess, and here we go recreating it under the guise of saving the economy. It's absurd in my opinion.
You can not have any integrity of your money if you are buying it yourself! That's ridiculous! Yet, that's what we are doing.
ALL of this would have been and would be skirted had we nationalized the banking system. It's insane what they are doing. INSANE.
There ya have it, my simple opinion. The stock market very well may go higher, for now, but if you recall I said that the only way the DOW is over 5000 this year is if they devalue the dollar. That's exactly what they are doing. It's a total con job, like many other things they do. So, the idea is to make those $1 MIL homes stay selling at $1 MIL, but to do that they know they have to devalue the currency. If the US Dollar is worth 70% of what it is now, then that $1 MIL house may sell at $1 MIL, but the owner is only getting $700,000 in real money terms.
Instead of allowing the market to fall organically, they are artificially keeping it propped up, and at the same time they are destroying wealth and savings for EVERY American.
Anyone who thinks this is good and they have things under control is going to be very sad when they realize the truth, that the US Dollar today is worth at least 20% less then it was 2 days ago.
'Nuff said.
Watch X, CLF and commodities for further upside potentially and watch me on FOX Friday!
RULE!
WAxie
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Wowsa...
Now the banks/financials are en fuego. I think we have to have a positive bias til mark-to-market is finalized. Any dips is probably going to be bought, a lot of investors have now been caught flat footed.
Watch the lagging sectors to play catch up; steel, energy, etc.
I will try to post, but I'm basically taking some time off to heal, I haven't given myself time to do that and you guys are fine without me spewing anyway, hehe!
Absence makes the heart grow fonder, but I will definately post as much as I can, if not every day.
Thanks for all the well wishes, appreciate it, I'll live, I think, just gotta get some real rest.
Peace out,
OH< and watch this tomorrow morning, I am on FOX Business TV tomorrow afternoon, roughly 2 pm. Stay tuned and check me out and let me know how I do!
Waxie
Watch the lagging sectors to play catch up; steel, energy, etc.
I will try to post, but I'm basically taking some time off to heal, I haven't given myself time to do that and you guys are fine without me spewing anyway, hehe!
Absence makes the heart grow fonder, but I will definately post as much as I can, if not every day.
Thanks for all the well wishes, appreciate it, I'll live, I think, just gotta get some real rest.
Peace out,
OH< and watch this tomorrow morning, I am on FOX Business TV tomorrow afternoon, roughly 2 pm. Stay tuned and check me out and let me know how I do!
Waxie
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Forget it, I'm done...
I'm moving - I am so sick and tired of watching these freakin elected officials who are so beyond clueless, and so freakin' responsible, but yet deflect their place in things trying to cover up by blaming everyone else.
This AIG thing is just another ridiculous granstanding opportunity for these clowns.
They hide behind ignorant anger, when the TRUTH is that THEY, in many cases, are the ones who created the situation in the first place!
Let's run the FACTS.
AIG was on the verge of bankruptcy, where in my opinion it should have gone, and the government made the decision to basically save them, and prop them up and cover all their obligations. They have since and with that given AIG 100s of Billions. The pitch was that taxpayers would eventually make money on the bailout. We've since learned that the liklihood of that is about 5000 to 1. Regardless, we've given them a ton of money and will probably need to give a lot more in the future.
So the hubub, in case you are living under a rock is that AIG gave out a couple 100 MIL in bonus PROMISES to a bunch of employees so that they would not leave when everything broke down, or right before that.
Now let me tell you, this is obviously just my opinion, but our country was founded on PRINCIPALS. It wasn't founded on day to day change the rules, it was built to last a long time.
OK, so how does this relate to AIG? Well, lets say YOU worked for AIG and all this stuff happens and you're like "hey, I'm outta here, dude!" And me, being in charge of AIG, I say - ok, go - leave, you suck anyway, you helped create this crazy stuff! That's fine, but what if many do the same thing?
Now, let's look at the other side of this. We, the taxpayers, have "invested" if you want to call it that, 100s of Billions in AIG. If people start leaving in droves, who is going to run the company? Now, hey, I don't know what the deal is as far as if they had to pay the bonuses for real, or they were just taking advantage of the free money that the GOVERNMENT threw at them!
It shouldn't matter. The bottom line is, there are contracts signed. If in order to get ME, or YOU to stay you had to give us a bonus, and we signed contracts, why in the world would I or should I give it back, which is what one senator said absurdly?
Is it my fault that the company is screwed and I have to worry about my two kids, so I have to look for another job unless you give me a contract?
I think its disgusting that we are now rushing to blame everyone and anyone, except those really at fault. Those people are the ones making the rulebook up, which is the biggest problem we have.
Now, again, I don't have all the details, if something underhanded was done, then ok, fine, then it should be reversed.
But, it remains factual that the government is the one who did this, no one else. Let's be real, they are all running around like chickens without a head because they are scared, and this is just another way to deflect where the real fault lies. And, that's with THEM, all of them. And if I got the bonus legitimately, there's no shot I would "give it back" and I would want to move to another country if they started to break contracts whenever they wanted. Are we now to move about the country as though it were a police state that can break contracts as they see fit?
OK, enough of this rubbish, market surprised me and rallied hard and strong once it came out that there was Talf news tomorrow, which is why I think we rallied, fyi. News rules this market, so I'm always listening, and thats what I heard.
NEWS RULES! Tomorrow we'll see, but usally a move like this sets up another nice trading day. And, you have to lean long off todays close fo sure!
CME I was wrong about it so far!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
And, in the grand scheme of theme regardless, this is a drop in the bucket.
This AIG thing is just another ridiculous granstanding opportunity for these clowns.
They hide behind ignorant anger, when the TRUTH is that THEY, in many cases, are the ones who created the situation in the first place!
Let's run the FACTS.
AIG was on the verge of bankruptcy, where in my opinion it should have gone, and the government made the decision to basically save them, and prop them up and cover all their obligations. They have since and with that given AIG 100s of Billions. The pitch was that taxpayers would eventually make money on the bailout. We've since learned that the liklihood of that is about 5000 to 1. Regardless, we've given them a ton of money and will probably need to give a lot more in the future.
So the hubub, in case you are living under a rock is that AIG gave out a couple 100 MIL in bonus PROMISES to a bunch of employees so that they would not leave when everything broke down, or right before that.
Now let me tell you, this is obviously just my opinion, but our country was founded on PRINCIPALS. It wasn't founded on day to day change the rules, it was built to last a long time.
OK, so how does this relate to AIG? Well, lets say YOU worked for AIG and all this stuff happens and you're like "hey, I'm outta here, dude!" And me, being in charge of AIG, I say - ok, go - leave, you suck anyway, you helped create this crazy stuff! That's fine, but what if many do the same thing?
Now, let's look at the other side of this. We, the taxpayers, have "invested" if you want to call it that, 100s of Billions in AIG. If people start leaving in droves, who is going to run the company? Now, hey, I don't know what the deal is as far as if they had to pay the bonuses for real, or they were just taking advantage of the free money that the GOVERNMENT threw at them!
It shouldn't matter. The bottom line is, there are contracts signed. If in order to get ME, or YOU to stay you had to give us a bonus, and we signed contracts, why in the world would I or should I give it back, which is what one senator said absurdly?
Is it my fault that the company is screwed and I have to worry about my two kids, so I have to look for another job unless you give me a contract?
I think its disgusting that we are now rushing to blame everyone and anyone, except those really at fault. Those people are the ones making the rulebook up, which is the biggest problem we have.
Now, again, I don't have all the details, if something underhanded was done, then ok, fine, then it should be reversed.
But, it remains factual that the government is the one who did this, no one else. Let's be real, they are all running around like chickens without a head because they are scared, and this is just another way to deflect where the real fault lies. And, that's with THEM, all of them. And if I got the bonus legitimately, there's no shot I would "give it back" and I would want to move to another country if they started to break contracts whenever they wanted. Are we now to move about the country as though it were a police state that can break contracts as they see fit?
OK, enough of this rubbish, market surprised me and rallied hard and strong once it came out that there was Talf news tomorrow, which is why I think we rallied, fyi. News rules this market, so I'm always listening, and thats what I heard.
NEWS RULES! Tomorrow we'll see, but usally a move like this sets up another nice trading day. And, you have to lean long off todays close fo sure!
CME I was wrong about it so far!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
And, in the grand scheme of theme regardless, this is a drop in the bucket.
Monday, March 16, 2009
BADDA BING, BADDA BOOM!
Well, that was some bull run, baby! I tell ya, anyone dumb enough to be buying banks that have doubled or tripled in 4 days for more than a trade gets what they deserve. I thought we'd get one more pop, and we did and it was nice, but that was that. Will we rerally in that sector? Perhaps, but any smart fund or investor is going to be dumping these things into any rally attempt. And, rightfully so.
Now you see clearly why I keep saying that the government continues to do just about everything wrong for the stock market. And, in my opinion, for the economy. I think its shameful for Bernanke to go on National TV and say with a straight face that the recession is going to end more than likely in 2009.
Hey, man, and wo-man, I hope so, I PRAY that to be true, but there is no evidence historically or otherwise that would indicate that is a reasonable assumption. The only thing that is reasonable to expect is rampant inflation, rampant unemployment and zombie banks.
One trend you might want to make note of reared its ugly head today again, and that's the BARRON'S TREND! They are almost always wrong, same as booyahhead! Who the hell says to buy GS and MS when they have basically DOUBLED? I just don't get it, I really don't. I wasn't around much today, but jeez louise, I shorted GS at the open and fade some cash on it! Barron's said that GM was a great deal when it was like $20, I mean, they are almost always DEAD wrong, its uncanny. Even a monkey throwing darts gets 50% right, but these "experts" go like 15 to 25% and still have readership. AMAZING!
Tomorrow will be interesting. The futures have been all over the place, but within a fairly tight range. I think a gap up is just an immediate short baring some market moving news. It's a gimme if no news. Financials look way spent, I wouldn't touch them here, but I do think we may get one more bounce and then on to new lows again.
What's amazing to me is how investors just keep getting smacked and yet keep piling in anytime we get a Bear market rally. They sure are gluttons for punishment!
If we can't bounce, there are several stocks that look interesting as shorts, with outs. GOOG could see $300 by the end of the week if we go down, and CME looks like its hanging on by a thread.
Also, watch SRS cause it was strong as hell today. SKF double bottomed today at $125 area and you saw what it did. It's bloody out there, who the hell is buying BAC near $7 after a 4+ day rally? C at $2.60s? I mean, why? These things have no dividends, so you are relying on the govt to make your investment pay off.
Do I have to say anything else? Plus, I got two emails this weekend asking me if they should buy BAC now. If that ain't a sign of a near term top, what is?
Let's see what shakes, there may be some buying interest if we dip down to 7000 area again, look at that as support here but if we can't hold 7000 we're in a bigger heep of trouble!
See ya on the other side, we've been making slow steady money here, you can't go nuts here, we're just too choppy, you need to pace yourself and take profits. Don't get stubborn and don't chop yourself into oblivion, the market is usually now picking a way to lean into the close and we have to get that right and then ride it, that's been where the biggest moves come lately, so heed that!
RULE!
Waxie
Now you see clearly why I keep saying that the government continues to do just about everything wrong for the stock market. And, in my opinion, for the economy. I think its shameful for Bernanke to go on National TV and say with a straight face that the recession is going to end more than likely in 2009.
Hey, man, and wo-man, I hope so, I PRAY that to be true, but there is no evidence historically or otherwise that would indicate that is a reasonable assumption. The only thing that is reasonable to expect is rampant inflation, rampant unemployment and zombie banks.
One trend you might want to make note of reared its ugly head today again, and that's the BARRON'S TREND! They are almost always wrong, same as booyahhead! Who the hell says to buy GS and MS when they have basically DOUBLED? I just don't get it, I really don't. I wasn't around much today, but jeez louise, I shorted GS at the open and fade some cash on it! Barron's said that GM was a great deal when it was like $20, I mean, they are almost always DEAD wrong, its uncanny. Even a monkey throwing darts gets 50% right, but these "experts" go like 15 to 25% and still have readership. AMAZING!
Tomorrow will be interesting. The futures have been all over the place, but within a fairly tight range. I think a gap up is just an immediate short baring some market moving news. It's a gimme if no news. Financials look way spent, I wouldn't touch them here, but I do think we may get one more bounce and then on to new lows again.
What's amazing to me is how investors just keep getting smacked and yet keep piling in anytime we get a Bear market rally. They sure are gluttons for punishment!
If we can't bounce, there are several stocks that look interesting as shorts, with outs. GOOG could see $300 by the end of the week if we go down, and CME looks like its hanging on by a thread.
Also, watch SRS cause it was strong as hell today. SKF double bottomed today at $125 area and you saw what it did. It's bloody out there, who the hell is buying BAC near $7 after a 4+ day rally? C at $2.60s? I mean, why? These things have no dividends, so you are relying on the govt to make your investment pay off.
Do I have to say anything else? Plus, I got two emails this weekend asking me if they should buy BAC now. If that ain't a sign of a near term top, what is?
Let's see what shakes, there may be some buying interest if we dip down to 7000 area again, look at that as support here but if we can't hold 7000 we're in a bigger heep of trouble!
See ya on the other side, we've been making slow steady money here, you can't go nuts here, we're just too choppy, you need to pace yourself and take profits. Don't get stubborn and don't chop yourself into oblivion, the market is usually now picking a way to lean into the close and we have to get that right and then ride it, that's been where the biggest moves come lately, so heed that!
RULE!
Waxie
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Did ya see FAS closing price?
Hmmmmm, coincidence perhaps! WHEEEEE!
OK, so now the talking heads are talking about the REAL bottom, 20/30, perhaps 40% more upside!
Awesome. And, there may very well be follow through here, I certainly don't want to get short just yet. 7500 is next real resistence on the DOW the way I trade. Then comes 8000 in a bigger move higher. I'm not sure here how high this goes, or doesn't go. If it wasn't clear who's manipulating the markets before today (it should have been anyway) it is now. The market za-zoomed once everyone got a wiff that they will do something ridiculously inappropriate and devastatingly destructive to the longer term economy (and investors) by redoing mark-to-market rules. I've spoken here about why this is probably the worst thing they can do, and another example of how letting people who are clueless run things and make decisions on things they are clueless about is just leading us on a path to potential civil unrest down the road, or worse. In my humble opinion, and in scary Dead Zone Waxie premonitions every perfect storm of economic destruction is being enacted by the powers that be. Anyone with half a brain knows that mark to market MUST not be messed with, even the damn bankers themselves say not to mess with it! Even Buffet says not to mess with it! And yet, here we go again, doing the exact opposite of what they should, and refusing to restrain themselves EVER.
Didn't anyone in government ever hear the cliche - when in doubt - DO NOTHING!?
I mean, this is very scary, folks, very scary indeed. But, what do I know?
I just keep hoping I'm wrong, and perhaps I will be. Perhaps.
So, here's where we are, kinda where we've been quite a few times, which creates some nice trading opps. First off, if we were to gap down on no news tomorrow it's probably a free money long on financials. HIGHLY unlikely they don't at least go red at some point and good shot they get further follow through. Remember, most people who have missed this move will want to get long stocks like WFC and AXP and BAC and FITB, etc.
If you've read the blog then you've heard me say that it's my experience that most investors and money guys are more afraid to miss a rally then they are to lose money staying in a trade too long, or catching a falling knife!
AXP at $13, WFC at $14, and even HBC at $25 are all "cheap" compared to where they were. I missed a couple trades today, and Friday I'm dealing with doctor stuff, so I'll miss some more, but thank you for all the great testimonials, keep them coming!
OK, I did want to mention one thing and make it clear, why I don't know, but I'll do it anyway. You may have noticed that I really don't edit myself much here,hehe. I speak my mind and if I've gone back and erased more than a couple dozens lines over al the blogs its probably a lot. I comment on a lot of things, some of them harshly, I give my opinion and I am a passionate person, or so I've been told.
I don't sit in judgement of really any individual unless they put themselves out as holier then thou. That's probably my biggest pet peeve, if I had to label one. Yes, I can be a blowhard, but anyone who knows me knows I am my own harshest critic. I like to be perfect, and I am far from it. My history is fairly unique, some would say (some wouldn't), I make no qualms about it, I've done and been through a lot. I've lived a life that is not free from many mistakes, though I have very few regrets (unless you count bad trades, or missed trades, hehe!). I don't need to go through my life's experiences, but suffice to say that I've been no saint, I've lived on the streets, I've been a tough guy, I've been a sweetheart of a guy, and I've sent my share of nasty emails (ok, so I regret some of these), and made just a ton of mistakes. I like to think that I'm ever evolving, and I've found that to be true of myself. I admire people who are open to change, and who are capable of knowing that life is fluid, if you let it be fluid, and it'll bite you in the ass if you fight its natural flow. I've found myself, and refound myself, and at times perhaps lost myself.
So, why do I write these things here now? Because I think it would be hypocritical for me not to admit to my mistakes when I write harshly, at times, about people in the industry (or outside it). We live in a society, I think, that loves to idolize and iconocize people and things. We also like to find scapegoats to blame. Bernie Madoff is the devil, right? But, you know how I feel, that the US banking system is a helluva lot worse, it just hasn't been caught yet. Wall Street is evil! Traders are gamblers! Short sellers are unpatriotic! We like to label things as a society, put them neatly in a box, it makes things infinitely more manageable, right?
No, but it's easy to blame one person, or a group that is associated, then it is to look at the broader issues we face as a nation, and as individuals. I love that scene in The Ten Commandments where Edgar Robinson gets everyone to worship the golden "god". Even after Moses freakin' was super cool and saved everyone and delivered them from evil. I mean, the dude turned his staff into a freakin' snake, brough Lotus, killed all the 1st born, and parted the ocean, but the short guy with the Brooklyn accent still wants them to worship the dang Golden idol! Rable Rousers prey on fear. We can all fall victim to it, I know I'm not perfect. When things are tough fear can take over anyone's mind for a moment or two. I talk about integrity a lot because I feel like I at least try to live my life with it, and I am disappointed in myself if I don't live up to my own expectations. That doesn't mean that at any given moment something stupid, I'm a work in progress after all. BUT, right now there is an awful lot of rable rousing going on. Politicians have, in my opinion, fallen victim to fear. Fear of not being reelected, fear of being blamed (Hey, Bernie Evers was once idolized by the same people who ripped him apart, same with many many others, same with Alan Greenspan, etc), and fear that they not do the right thing. This is a very dangerous time, and I appreciate people who are opinionated, even if they disagree with me, as long as they respect mine, and as long as they don't speak their own as Gospel. As long as they don't become the Golden Idol!
Maybe this doesn't make sense at all, probably not, but I just wanted to throw it out there if only to remind myself that I always want to be part of the solution, and not part of the problem. So, keep your criticism coming, and your positive energy, it's all good. I certainly am not perfect, that'd be boring anyway. Just maybe next time you see a talking head claim to know it all, maybe think twice, or three times that perhaps they maybe, just maybe, know very little, or perhaps - nothing at all.
Remember to RULE always, lets see what shakes out, watch the insurers, they could get a nice bump further, HIG, MET, PRU are a few, AFL as well. I own HIG, fyi.
And, if none of this makes any sense, its cool, cause I have an excuse, hehe, I'm on some painkillers! Thanks to all those that came to my book release party, you know who you are, and I love ya all!
And, for those of you who still haven't ordered the book, what the hell are ya waiting for dudes and dudesses?
RULE YOUR FREAKIN' RETIREMENT, available on Amazon.com NOW!
Waxie
OK, so now the talking heads are talking about the REAL bottom, 20/30, perhaps 40% more upside!
Awesome. And, there may very well be follow through here, I certainly don't want to get short just yet. 7500 is next real resistence on the DOW the way I trade. Then comes 8000 in a bigger move higher. I'm not sure here how high this goes, or doesn't go. If it wasn't clear who's manipulating the markets before today (it should have been anyway) it is now. The market za-zoomed once everyone got a wiff that they will do something ridiculously inappropriate and devastatingly destructive to the longer term economy (and investors) by redoing mark-to-market rules. I've spoken here about why this is probably the worst thing they can do, and another example of how letting people who are clueless run things and make decisions on things they are clueless about is just leading us on a path to potential civil unrest down the road, or worse. In my humble opinion, and in scary Dead Zone Waxie premonitions every perfect storm of economic destruction is being enacted by the powers that be. Anyone with half a brain knows that mark to market MUST not be messed with, even the damn bankers themselves say not to mess with it! Even Buffet says not to mess with it! And yet, here we go again, doing the exact opposite of what they should, and refusing to restrain themselves EVER.
Didn't anyone in government ever hear the cliche - when in doubt - DO NOTHING!?
I mean, this is very scary, folks, very scary indeed. But, what do I know?
I just keep hoping I'm wrong, and perhaps I will be. Perhaps.
So, here's where we are, kinda where we've been quite a few times, which creates some nice trading opps. First off, if we were to gap down on no news tomorrow it's probably a free money long on financials. HIGHLY unlikely they don't at least go red at some point and good shot they get further follow through. Remember, most people who have missed this move will want to get long stocks like WFC and AXP and BAC and FITB, etc.
If you've read the blog then you've heard me say that it's my experience that most investors and money guys are more afraid to miss a rally then they are to lose money staying in a trade too long, or catching a falling knife!
AXP at $13, WFC at $14, and even HBC at $25 are all "cheap" compared to where they were. I missed a couple trades today, and Friday I'm dealing with doctor stuff, so I'll miss some more, but thank you for all the great testimonials, keep them coming!
OK, I did want to mention one thing and make it clear, why I don't know, but I'll do it anyway. You may have noticed that I really don't edit myself much here,hehe. I speak my mind and if I've gone back and erased more than a couple dozens lines over al the blogs its probably a lot. I comment on a lot of things, some of them harshly, I give my opinion and I am a passionate person, or so I've been told.
I don't sit in judgement of really any individual unless they put themselves out as holier then thou. That's probably my biggest pet peeve, if I had to label one. Yes, I can be a blowhard, but anyone who knows me knows I am my own harshest critic. I like to be perfect, and I am far from it. My history is fairly unique, some would say (some wouldn't), I make no qualms about it, I've done and been through a lot. I've lived a life that is not free from many mistakes, though I have very few regrets (unless you count bad trades, or missed trades, hehe!). I don't need to go through my life's experiences, but suffice to say that I've been no saint, I've lived on the streets, I've been a tough guy, I've been a sweetheart of a guy, and I've sent my share of nasty emails (ok, so I regret some of these), and made just a ton of mistakes. I like to think that I'm ever evolving, and I've found that to be true of myself. I admire people who are open to change, and who are capable of knowing that life is fluid, if you let it be fluid, and it'll bite you in the ass if you fight its natural flow. I've found myself, and refound myself, and at times perhaps lost myself.
So, why do I write these things here now? Because I think it would be hypocritical for me not to admit to my mistakes when I write harshly, at times, about people in the industry (or outside it). We live in a society, I think, that loves to idolize and iconocize people and things. We also like to find scapegoats to blame. Bernie Madoff is the devil, right? But, you know how I feel, that the US banking system is a helluva lot worse, it just hasn't been caught yet. Wall Street is evil! Traders are gamblers! Short sellers are unpatriotic! We like to label things as a society, put them neatly in a box, it makes things infinitely more manageable, right?
No, but it's easy to blame one person, or a group that is associated, then it is to look at the broader issues we face as a nation, and as individuals. I love that scene in The Ten Commandments where Edgar Robinson gets everyone to worship the golden "god". Even after Moses freakin' was super cool and saved everyone and delivered them from evil. I mean, the dude turned his staff into a freakin' snake, brough Lotus, killed all the 1st born, and parted the ocean, but the short guy with the Brooklyn accent still wants them to worship the dang Golden idol! Rable Rousers prey on fear. We can all fall victim to it, I know I'm not perfect. When things are tough fear can take over anyone's mind for a moment or two. I talk about integrity a lot because I feel like I at least try to live my life with it, and I am disappointed in myself if I don't live up to my own expectations. That doesn't mean that at any given moment something stupid, I'm a work in progress after all. BUT, right now there is an awful lot of rable rousing going on. Politicians have, in my opinion, fallen victim to fear. Fear of not being reelected, fear of being blamed (Hey, Bernie Evers was once idolized by the same people who ripped him apart, same with many many others, same with Alan Greenspan, etc), and fear that they not do the right thing. This is a very dangerous time, and I appreciate people who are opinionated, even if they disagree with me, as long as they respect mine, and as long as they don't speak their own as Gospel. As long as they don't become the Golden Idol!
Maybe this doesn't make sense at all, probably not, but I just wanted to throw it out there if only to remind myself that I always want to be part of the solution, and not part of the problem. So, keep your criticism coming, and your positive energy, it's all good. I certainly am not perfect, that'd be boring anyway. Just maybe next time you see a talking head claim to know it all, maybe think twice, or three times that perhaps they maybe, just maybe, know very little, or perhaps - nothing at all.
Remember to RULE always, lets see what shakes out, watch the insurers, they could get a nice bump further, HIG, MET, PRU are a few, AFL as well. I own HIG, fyi.
And, if none of this makes any sense, its cool, cause I have an excuse, hehe, I'm on some painkillers! Thanks to all those that came to my book release party, you know who you are, and I love ya all!
And, for those of you who still haven't ordered the book, what the hell are ya waiting for dudes and dudesses?
RULE YOUR FREAKIN' RETIREMENT, available on Amazon.com NOW!
Waxie
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Debt...
OK, just pasting this, this wasn't me, it was one of you beautiful lovely people, keep the comments coming, good bad or indifferent.
Love me, hate me, want to hook me up, whatever it is, babies, send 'em in!
Thanks for the comment. And, listen, we are getting literally so SO many great testimonials that its insane. In this market, I am so grateful we are helping so many people persue their dreams, or save them! God Bless all. And, thank you all for offering to come to NJ this Saturday to do testimonials, those that have! It's not too late, but it's getting there! We have roughly 20 people coming, if you are still interesting, I suggest you send me an email IMMEDIATELY!
waxie@trendfund.com
Got a story to tell about us thats good? Made some cashola off a call or two or three? Or, just think I'm the sexiest man alive? WHatever it is, send it in!
RULE
_______________________________________________________________________________
Waxie, continue to keep it real. Unlike the banking desks, real traders have to live by a separate set of rules.
Exchange (real) traders:
1) Must post margin
2) Have trades marked to market daily
3) Have their funds in segregated, escrow accounts separate from firm funds (e.g. for futures, options, IRAs)
4) Have trades cash settled w/in 2-3 business days
5) Follow t/a
6) Practice money management
7) Are regulated by the SEC and CFTC
ABS traders:
1) Do not post margin (can you imagine selling naked SKF calls and never getting assigned? see #4)
2) Have trades marked quarterly
3) Mix client and firm funds together so they can pay themselves bonuses out of client money
4) Delay settlement for as long as possible until the taxpayer is forced to guarantee their losses
5) Do not follow T/A
6) Completely lack money management skills (e.g. LEH, BSC, AIG, C, etc.)
7) Are unregulated
Conclusion: ABS traders are not real traders. They are little boys and girls who party hard on other people's money. In fact, some people have even gone so far as to call them thieves....
Love me, hate me, want to hook me up, whatever it is, babies, send 'em in!
Thanks for the comment. And, listen, we are getting literally so SO many great testimonials that its insane. In this market, I am so grateful we are helping so many people persue their dreams, or save them! God Bless all. And, thank you all for offering to come to NJ this Saturday to do testimonials, those that have! It's not too late, but it's getting there! We have roughly 20 people coming, if you are still interesting, I suggest you send me an email IMMEDIATELY!
waxie@trendfund.com
Got a story to tell about us thats good? Made some cashola off a call or two or three? Or, just think I'm the sexiest man alive? WHatever it is, send it in!
RULE
_______________________________________________________________________________
Waxie, continue to keep it real. Unlike the banking desks, real traders have to live by a separate set of rules.
Exchange (real) traders:
1) Must post margin
2) Have trades marked to market daily
3) Have their funds in segregated, escrow accounts separate from firm funds (e.g. for futures, options, IRAs)
4) Have trades cash settled w/in 2-3 business days
5) Follow t/a
6) Practice money management
7) Are regulated by the SEC and CFTC
ABS traders:
1) Do not post margin (can you imagine selling naked SKF calls and never getting assigned? see #4)
2) Have trades marked quarterly
3) Mix client and firm funds together so they can pay themselves bonuses out of client money
4) Delay settlement for as long as possible until the taxpayer is forced to guarantee their losses
5) Do not follow T/A
6) Completely lack money management skills (e.g. LEH, BSC, AIG, C, etc.)
7) Are unregulated
Conclusion: ABS traders are not real traders. They are little boys and girls who party hard on other people's money. In fact, some people have even gone so far as to call them thieves....
INSOLVENCY...
OK, I got a couple of emails demanding I explain the notion of these banks being insolvent.
Let's first briefly define insolvent; unable to meet debt obligations.
It's very simple, if you owe $10 but you can't pay it, you are insolvent. Now, you may have $500,000 worth of inventory, so you can sell $10 worth (or more) and you are now solvent, but until you do, hey dude, you are insolvent.
OK, there ya go.
Most of the big banks are insolvent and the only way they could repay all their debts is;
1)Get us taxpayers to foot the bill and suck us all dry as they are doing (did you see after the close that Fannie Mae is asking for ANOTHER $31 BILLION!)
2)Get rid of mark to market, thus they can price the toxic/illiquid "assets" at a high enough price to be "solvent", which is why these knuckleheads are pushing it so hard. It's the dumbest thing ever, but hey, why not rip everyone off even more!
3)Fool depositors into thinking that their money is safe so they don't withdraw it.
4)Make enough money to overcome all the bad/toxic assets they have (this is highly unlikely)
OK, so that doesn't "prove" the notion, I know, so let me go into a few logical equations and you can draw your own conclusions -
1)Citibank (C) is owned roughly 40% (its actually a lot more, but I don't have time to explain this right now) by the US Taxpayers, which I'll assume you all pay your taxpayers, so congratulations, you just made about 75% on your money the last two days as C nearly doubled! Ka-chingo = NOT!
Why do you own C? Well, because the govt had to a) give them at least $45 BIL to cover debt (insolvent, capesh?), and even better, you are guaranteeing roughly $350 BIL in bad debt they have that is worth very little, if anything! Yeah, you lucky folks! I wish I were you! OH, I am! Shoot!
2)JPM, GS, WFC, NTRS, USB, STI, STT,MS and a bunch of others took Tarp money for same reasons and the govt/us mostly got preferred shares that pay 8 to 10% interest, with the rights to convert now to common equity, which is obviously dilutive. THe only banks I am aware of that have offered to repay the Tarp money are; NTRS and USB. And, even that is suspect to me.
Also, GS and GE had to take on similar type deals with Warren Buffet to raise capital.
The last two days you had CNBC pom pom out in full force because C and JPM both said they were profitable the first two months of the year. This is meaningless, but it sounds good so why not fool the public again!
The bullish arguement is that these banks have good earnings power, I FIRMLY disagree. Yes, they have very low cost money to loan, which is very good for banks, but they are doing DRASTICALLY less business. For those of you who don't live in a city like New York, or Los Angeles, or Chicago and a few others, go Google these cities and BANKS and see how many listings you get. Part of the problem was, and still is, there is a HUGE bubble in banks. Meaning that there are so many that in New York I feel as though they must have a bank per customer. I mean, its worse then Starbucks! I can walk 3 or 4 blocks to a different Chase (sometimes its 1 block away or LESS!) in the city! How many damn banks do we need? Certainly not that many, same as the way Starbucks is contracting, thats what happens when businesses expand and need to contract and thats normal, thats a free market capitalistic system. The govt is artificially keeping these INSOLVENT banks in business. They have no real earnings power unless they contract. Then, yes, the survivors would, but thats the same issue with many businesses now. Automobiles, banks, mortgage brokers, brokers, etc, etc, etc.
OK, and my next post some of you will be really happy with me for, hehe. In my opinion Bernie Madoff is NOTHING compared to the biggest Ponzi scheme in the history of the world.
You want to know what it is? THE BANKING SYSTEM.
Now obviously I hope I never have to prove this out, but if everyone decided tomorrow that they wanted to withdraw all their money from every bank in the world, I am quite certain you would have a shortfall of so much money it would blow your mind. And, in this day and age that would be a lot. What's after Trillions? I don't even know, but take that and times it by 1000 or more and my guess is thats your shortfall. Remember, these "assets" many were at 50 or 100 or more to 1, so your money was/is being used to leverage that much X's its worth.
What does that mean? Well, much of this mess was created by simple math, even though they like to make it seem like its so complex. It's not, my 7 year old could figure it out.
If you have 1 apple tree that usually yields 100 apples, but you tell someone you are selling them 5000 apples then you have a 4900 apple shortfall. BUT, if the apple crop this year is really really good, perhaps you can cover substancially more than the 100, certainly enough to keep them sated so they don't ask you to collect all 5000. And, if they do, its ok, because you can borrow it from the other guy who has a bumper crop of apples this year.
Its probably a poor analogy, but think of those apples as the housing market, or the stock market. If you deposit $5000 into a bank account and the bank then lends it out at 50 to 1, hence $250,000, its ok as long as the underlying assets continue to expand. The problem occurs when these assets contract, or are stagnant, then a) someone may ask you to pay them back because they need the money to repay their bills, or they simply are nervous and want to cash out. This is why Bernie Madoff and other schemers finally got caught, as long as they had more inflows then redemptions, they could keep their Ponzi scheme going and going and going. When the market dropped and people had to redeem in order to pay other obligations, or because they were nervous and wanted to put their money under their pillows, the gig was up, baby, cause Bernie didn't have the cashola, it was all FICTION.
Which, in my opinion, is EXACTLY what C and JPM and BAC and WFC and most of them are doing now. Sure, they "made" a profit the last two months, but what about the BILLIONS, if not TRILLIONS that they need to still write down?
Still not convinced.
OK, fine, fair enough. Perhaps I can remind you of a few FACTS that are indesputable -
LEH
BSC
MER
AIG
FNM
FRE
C
ABK
TMA
FMD
SOV
WB
etc, etc, etc.
I called them all to ZERO. They all are basically there (yeah, C is $1.50, sorry, whoops!). In fact, they are or were all worth LESS THAN ZERO. How can I prove that? Well, all the buyouts had to happen with the blessing of the Fed, who backstopped each of the deals to the tune of BILLIONS to get someone to take them over. That, my friends, is indesputable.
And, even more? How about the fact that the CEO's of BSC, LEH, AIG, FNM, FRE and many others were all on CNBC and CNN and wherever saying that they were FINE< that they were MAKING MONEY and that they didn't need any help, they could all GO IT ALONE!
I'm sorry, but you can stick your head in the sand or you can deal in reality. Reality is, these companies, most of them, are INSOLVENT. And, the right thing to do is the one thing they refuse to do, which is to make them so. Close down 50% of the banks in the country, sell off the assets for whatever they are really worth, and merge, combine and nationalize everyone who can't really stand on their own.
You want to argue, ok, but I will give you an ironclad guarantee my friends. In 5 years (it'll be a lot less) this will mostly if not all come to pass anyway. All they are doing is giving out false hope, and delaying the inevitable.
One more tidbit to chomp on. HBC is doing an offering today of their stock at 40% off. I've never even heard of such absurdity. HBC was supposedly one of the strongest banks out there. Do you think that HBC would sell their stock at 40% off if they weren't completely desperate to stay alive?
Think about it, get back to me. The US (and world) banking system is the biggest PONZI SCHEME known to mankind. That's my opinion, and I'm sticking to it.
If I got wind that everyone was thinking about withdrawing their money at the same time soon, trust me, I would beat you all to the bank and get my money out immediately and hide it under my bed, in my closet, in shoes, in socks, in the toilet, in the glove compartment, in used Chinese take out boxes. I would stuff some in my kids school lunch. I'd do anything just to get it out of a US Bank.
Look at this "rally" that I called. Wowsa! Nice, huh? Ah huh. AXP is under $12 and got a SELL rating today! PNC is under $25 and downgraded. Who is upgrading MS? Shocking as it is - GS! You really don't want me to go off on the evil empire that is GS, do you? No, its late and that's enough for a night.
Hey, this is all my opinion, what do I know? Clearly I have been wrong all along, market probably goes to new highs soon!
Get ready to short BRK.B again, we got Mr.Buffet LARGE already, I'm hoping it gets to $3000 here so I can do it all over again! Ka-chingo!
You think I'm bearish? Tiny thinks we go right back down here VERY soon! I'll buy that, I certainly am not willing to stay long here for more than a trade again. A couple days was enough, I'm back to trade the longside, hold the short side again.
YES, the govt can do things to artificially TRY to create the perception of value on these stocks, but its all smoke and mirrors, and anyone who buys into it is going to lose their shirts, and more. This is not a drill, this is the real deal.
RULE!
Let's first briefly define insolvent; unable to meet debt obligations.
It's very simple, if you owe $10 but you can't pay it, you are insolvent. Now, you may have $500,000 worth of inventory, so you can sell $10 worth (or more) and you are now solvent, but until you do, hey dude, you are insolvent.
OK, there ya go.
Most of the big banks are insolvent and the only way they could repay all their debts is;
1)Get us taxpayers to foot the bill and suck us all dry as they are doing (did you see after the close that Fannie Mae is asking for ANOTHER $31 BILLION!)
2)Get rid of mark to market, thus they can price the toxic/illiquid "assets" at a high enough price to be "solvent", which is why these knuckleheads are pushing it so hard. It's the dumbest thing ever, but hey, why not rip everyone off even more!
3)Fool depositors into thinking that their money is safe so they don't withdraw it.
4)Make enough money to overcome all the bad/toxic assets they have (this is highly unlikely)
OK, so that doesn't "prove" the notion, I know, so let me go into a few logical equations and you can draw your own conclusions -
1)Citibank (C) is owned roughly 40% (its actually a lot more, but I don't have time to explain this right now) by the US Taxpayers, which I'll assume you all pay your taxpayers, so congratulations, you just made about 75% on your money the last two days as C nearly doubled! Ka-chingo = NOT!
Why do you own C? Well, because the govt had to a) give them at least $45 BIL to cover debt (insolvent, capesh?), and even better, you are guaranteeing roughly $350 BIL in bad debt they have that is worth very little, if anything! Yeah, you lucky folks! I wish I were you! OH, I am! Shoot!
2)JPM, GS, WFC, NTRS, USB, STI, STT,MS and a bunch of others took Tarp money for same reasons and the govt/us mostly got preferred shares that pay 8 to 10% interest, with the rights to convert now to common equity, which is obviously dilutive. THe only banks I am aware of that have offered to repay the Tarp money are; NTRS and USB. And, even that is suspect to me.
Also, GS and GE had to take on similar type deals with Warren Buffet to raise capital.
The last two days you had CNBC pom pom out in full force because C and JPM both said they were profitable the first two months of the year. This is meaningless, but it sounds good so why not fool the public again!
The bullish arguement is that these banks have good earnings power, I FIRMLY disagree. Yes, they have very low cost money to loan, which is very good for banks, but they are doing DRASTICALLY less business. For those of you who don't live in a city like New York, or Los Angeles, or Chicago and a few others, go Google these cities and BANKS and see how many listings you get. Part of the problem was, and still is, there is a HUGE bubble in banks. Meaning that there are so many that in New York I feel as though they must have a bank per customer. I mean, its worse then Starbucks! I can walk 3 or 4 blocks to a different Chase (sometimes its 1 block away or LESS!) in the city! How many damn banks do we need? Certainly not that many, same as the way Starbucks is contracting, thats what happens when businesses expand and need to contract and thats normal, thats a free market capitalistic system. The govt is artificially keeping these INSOLVENT banks in business. They have no real earnings power unless they contract. Then, yes, the survivors would, but thats the same issue with many businesses now. Automobiles, banks, mortgage brokers, brokers, etc, etc, etc.
OK, and my next post some of you will be really happy with me for, hehe. In my opinion Bernie Madoff is NOTHING compared to the biggest Ponzi scheme in the history of the world.
You want to know what it is? THE BANKING SYSTEM.
Now obviously I hope I never have to prove this out, but if everyone decided tomorrow that they wanted to withdraw all their money from every bank in the world, I am quite certain you would have a shortfall of so much money it would blow your mind. And, in this day and age that would be a lot. What's after Trillions? I don't even know, but take that and times it by 1000 or more and my guess is thats your shortfall. Remember, these "assets" many were at 50 or 100 or more to 1, so your money was/is being used to leverage that much X's its worth.
What does that mean? Well, much of this mess was created by simple math, even though they like to make it seem like its so complex. It's not, my 7 year old could figure it out.
If you have 1 apple tree that usually yields 100 apples, but you tell someone you are selling them 5000 apples then you have a 4900 apple shortfall. BUT, if the apple crop this year is really really good, perhaps you can cover substancially more than the 100, certainly enough to keep them sated so they don't ask you to collect all 5000. And, if they do, its ok, because you can borrow it from the other guy who has a bumper crop of apples this year.
Its probably a poor analogy, but think of those apples as the housing market, or the stock market. If you deposit $5000 into a bank account and the bank then lends it out at 50 to 1, hence $250,000, its ok as long as the underlying assets continue to expand. The problem occurs when these assets contract, or are stagnant, then a) someone may ask you to pay them back because they need the money to repay their bills, or they simply are nervous and want to cash out. This is why Bernie Madoff and other schemers finally got caught, as long as they had more inflows then redemptions, they could keep their Ponzi scheme going and going and going. When the market dropped and people had to redeem in order to pay other obligations, or because they were nervous and wanted to put their money under their pillows, the gig was up, baby, cause Bernie didn't have the cashola, it was all FICTION.
Which, in my opinion, is EXACTLY what C and JPM and BAC and WFC and most of them are doing now. Sure, they "made" a profit the last two months, but what about the BILLIONS, if not TRILLIONS that they need to still write down?
Still not convinced.
OK, fine, fair enough. Perhaps I can remind you of a few FACTS that are indesputable -
LEH
BSC
MER
AIG
FNM
FRE
C
ABK
TMA
FMD
SOV
WB
etc, etc, etc.
I called them all to ZERO. They all are basically there (yeah, C is $1.50, sorry, whoops!). In fact, they are or were all worth LESS THAN ZERO. How can I prove that? Well, all the buyouts had to happen with the blessing of the Fed, who backstopped each of the deals to the tune of BILLIONS to get someone to take them over. That, my friends, is indesputable.
And, even more? How about the fact that the CEO's of BSC, LEH, AIG, FNM, FRE and many others were all on CNBC and CNN and wherever saying that they were FINE< that they were MAKING MONEY and that they didn't need any help, they could all GO IT ALONE!
I'm sorry, but you can stick your head in the sand or you can deal in reality. Reality is, these companies, most of them, are INSOLVENT. And, the right thing to do is the one thing they refuse to do, which is to make them so. Close down 50% of the banks in the country, sell off the assets for whatever they are really worth, and merge, combine and nationalize everyone who can't really stand on their own.
You want to argue, ok, but I will give you an ironclad guarantee my friends. In 5 years (it'll be a lot less) this will mostly if not all come to pass anyway. All they are doing is giving out false hope, and delaying the inevitable.
One more tidbit to chomp on. HBC is doing an offering today of their stock at 40% off. I've never even heard of such absurdity. HBC was supposedly one of the strongest banks out there. Do you think that HBC would sell their stock at 40% off if they weren't completely desperate to stay alive?
Think about it, get back to me. The US (and world) banking system is the biggest PONZI SCHEME known to mankind. That's my opinion, and I'm sticking to it.
If I got wind that everyone was thinking about withdrawing their money at the same time soon, trust me, I would beat you all to the bank and get my money out immediately and hide it under my bed, in my closet, in shoes, in socks, in the toilet, in the glove compartment, in used Chinese take out boxes. I would stuff some in my kids school lunch. I'd do anything just to get it out of a US Bank.
Look at this "rally" that I called. Wowsa! Nice, huh? Ah huh. AXP is under $12 and got a SELL rating today! PNC is under $25 and downgraded. Who is upgrading MS? Shocking as it is - GS! You really don't want me to go off on the evil empire that is GS, do you? No, its late and that's enough for a night.
Hey, this is all my opinion, what do I know? Clearly I have been wrong all along, market probably goes to new highs soon!
Get ready to short BRK.B again, we got Mr.Buffet LARGE already, I'm hoping it gets to $3000 here so I can do it all over again! Ka-chingo!
You think I'm bearish? Tiny thinks we go right back down here VERY soon! I'll buy that, I certainly am not willing to stay long here for more than a trade again. A couple days was enough, I'm back to trade the longside, hold the short side again.
YES, the govt can do things to artificially TRY to create the perception of value on these stocks, but its all smoke and mirrors, and anyone who buys into it is going to lose their shirts, and more. This is not a drill, this is the real deal.
RULE!
Final cranky thought for the night, hehe!
The reason why its so frustrating to hear these knuckleheads, and I count Jaime Diamond as one, trust me, is because what they do is skew the truth.
C said yesterday they were profitable January and February. Yeah, ok, and I'll sell you the Brooklyn bridge in its entirety.
C is worthless, JPM is worthless. WFC is worthless. BAC is beyond worthless, so are many others in my OPINION.
Rallying JPM and having Booyahhead pump it up based on the CEO saying that they were profitable the 1st 2 months of the year is LUDICROUS and a HUGE lie.
That neglects the fact that they have at least $300 BIL in bad debt that needs to be written off. This is the same with JPM and all of these stocks.
Now, the thing is, as I stated, we traded these on the long side and I think on pullbacks for now may have more upside here, but beyond a trade forget them, they are DEAD long term, it doesn't matter what the govt does in the long run.
OK, thats it. Hey, I hope we get another 30% move higher, and I do think the financials could get that bigger move. Watch $5 on FAS if it gets there for us, thats heavy resistence. My guess is we still have upside, as I probably have said a few times. I think levels to watch on stocks we are in or have been trading;
WFC $15 to $17
USB $15 to $17
JPM $22.50 with potential top at $25 area
STT $25
MS $25
GS $100
FAS $5
You see what BAC did today? This is why you need to keep your levels handy. BAC opened over $5, went to $5.50 and then pulled all the way back to $4.60s intraday.
I know its evil to short, but you can use these levels for entries at least for a trade. Look at PNC today, went over its big time resistence at $25, went all the way to $28 and then sold off like gangbusters.
TRADE THIS MARKET FOLKS! DO NOT GET CAUGHT LONG OR SHORT!
That's it, that's all I can muster, meanwhile, if you haven't picked up my new book, please do;
www.amazon.com
Rule the Freakin' Markets, by Michael Parness
See ya manana!
Waxie
C said yesterday they were profitable January and February. Yeah, ok, and I'll sell you the Brooklyn bridge in its entirety.
C is worthless, JPM is worthless. WFC is worthless. BAC is beyond worthless, so are many others in my OPINION.
Rallying JPM and having Booyahhead pump it up based on the CEO saying that they were profitable the 1st 2 months of the year is LUDICROUS and a HUGE lie.
That neglects the fact that they have at least $300 BIL in bad debt that needs to be written off. This is the same with JPM and all of these stocks.
Now, the thing is, as I stated, we traded these on the long side and I think on pullbacks for now may have more upside here, but beyond a trade forget them, they are DEAD long term, it doesn't matter what the govt does in the long run.
OK, thats it. Hey, I hope we get another 30% move higher, and I do think the financials could get that bigger move. Watch $5 on FAS if it gets there for us, thats heavy resistence. My guess is we still have upside, as I probably have said a few times. I think levels to watch on stocks we are in or have been trading;
WFC $15 to $17
USB $15 to $17
JPM $22.50 with potential top at $25 area
STT $25
MS $25
GS $100
FAS $5
You see what BAC did today? This is why you need to keep your levels handy. BAC opened over $5, went to $5.50 and then pulled all the way back to $4.60s intraday.
I know its evil to short, but you can use these levels for entries at least for a trade. Look at PNC today, went over its big time resistence at $25, went all the way to $28 and then sold off like gangbusters.
TRADE THIS MARKET FOLKS! DO NOT GET CAUGHT LONG OR SHORT!
That's it, that's all I can muster, meanwhile, if you haven't picked up my new book, please do;
www.amazon.com
Rule the Freakin' Markets, by Michael Parness
See ya manana!
Waxie
Oy Vey...
You know, I'm sitting here all day trying to make a living and help a bunch of people out, something I've done exceedingly well (how you like that financial rally call?), and I am dealing with extreme pain from my car accident, so frankly I need to not trade here til I get it together, but I just don't know, maybe it's the painkillers I'm on, or maybe it's just my overall crankiness, but whatever it is I am just sick and tired of hearing the pom pom wavers on CNBC. I have to tell you that its disgusting that ANY of them call themselves journalists. Journalists don't pump stocks up.
Check this out, and thank you for the client who sent it to me, this is what I have talked about time and time again and for all that defend this guy, God Bless because I find him disgusting.
Yes, hehe, I am in pain, but whatever, I have never minced words as you guys and gals know. I'm just a little crankier than usual.
RRRRRG! The thing is, I've discussed it before, all the pom pom waving does is hurt more investors who foolishly wade in thinking we are at a real bottom. This is a TRADING market, that's all folks. I nailed this move higher, but now I am calling it flat. I think we may get some more upside, usually these types of moves get some final up move that exhausts the longs and the bears reclaim things, but since I'm not really myself this second I'm going to just lay low and look for some opps as we move forward.
Here ya go, enjoy;
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/11/jim-cramer-shorting-stock_n_173824.html
Booyah! And just remember, this is the guy who keeps calling for them to ban short selling and SKF!!! Hehe! What a total joke.
Waxie
RULE!
Check this out, and thank you for the client who sent it to me, this is what I have talked about time and time again and for all that defend this guy, God Bless because I find him disgusting.
Yes, hehe, I am in pain, but whatever, I have never minced words as you guys and gals know. I'm just a little crankier than usual.
RRRRRG! The thing is, I've discussed it before, all the pom pom waving does is hurt more investors who foolishly wade in thinking we are at a real bottom. This is a TRADING market, that's all folks. I nailed this move higher, but now I am calling it flat. I think we may get some more upside, usually these types of moves get some final up move that exhausts the longs and the bears reclaim things, but since I'm not really myself this second I'm going to just lay low and look for some opps as we move forward.
Here ya go, enjoy;
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/11/jim-cramer-shorting-stock_n_173824.html
Booyah! And just remember, this is the guy who keeps calling for them to ban short selling and SKF!!! Hehe! What a total joke.
Waxie
RULE!
Monday, March 09, 2009
RULE YOUR FREAKIN' RETIREMENT is AVAILABLE NOW!!!
Please order your copy, its timely and could save your retirement outright!
www.amazon.com and just punch in; rule your and it comes right up!
http://www.amazon.com/Rule-Your-Freakin-Retirement-Actively/dp/0312375751/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1236654599&sr=8-1
order 1 or 20!
RULE!
www.amazon.com and just punch in; rule your and it comes right up!
http://www.amazon.com/Rule-Your-Freakin-Retirement-Actively/dp/0312375751/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1236654599&sr=8-1
order 1 or 20!
RULE!
THE BOTTOM IS IN BABY!
BUY BUY BUY!
OK, so not quite, BUT I said it yesterday, I think the banking sector probably has bottomed for a few days at least. I am long the banks, with hedges (MS and GS look putrid, but WFC, USB and others look a lot stronger here)
And, tech is next to drop is what I said, wha-la GOOG and AAPL bye bye, see ya.
We should get a bounce here Tuesday unless more bad news hits. We showed signs of wanting to bounce Monday, there's just no follow through. I'm thinking we should get some small bounce, at least, Tuesday, as a sneak attack bounce.
I had a very nice day, woosey and all, this market continues to pay the TRENDS off HUGE. Gaps have been AMAZINGLY fadeable and if you aren't playing them with us, you are costing yourself a boatload of cashola, folks! Nothing is guaranteed, but we are really killing this market. We had USB off the gap down for $2ish, we are just killing this market - KILLING IT!
I'm hoping we gap down Tuesday, I think it'll be a great buy on the financials. Remember, when people think they might be missing a rally they will pile in. I subscribe o the theory that people are much more worried about missing a rally then they are about protecting their cash. Plus shorts will need to cover, so...let's see what shakes and go from there. I'm basically bedridden for a few more days, so I'm proving that you can make money trading from anywhere, I did it today in my undies in bed under the covers in between naps! How's that for a testimonial? "Dude, you can make BIG Ka-chingos, dude, in your undies!"
But, it's true and you can do it, too...dudes and dudesses!
OK, so enough of my bluster. Thank you all that replied to the request for infomercial participants. If you still want to, there's still time, we'll be shooting this Saturday and we're looking for good stories so we can share the lovely little thing we call Trend Trading at Trendfund.com!
In the meantime, I gave you my opinion, I would be hedged long the financials here and buy the dips until we see otherwise. That doesn't mean an all out buy buy buy, hedged means exactly that, I am long some and short some, though net longer then shorter and most are with options (puts and calls) so downside is contained if wrong.
Have a good night all, I'm hitting the hay pretty soon! ROCK AND ROLL!
And, most of all - RULE!
WAXIE
*Oh, I wanted to make one political comment, growing up I hung out with a lot of gamblers. We were these Jewish kids who worshipped Italians, so I walked around Queens speaking Brooklynese (not every Italian speaks this,in fact most don't, but the ones we imitated did, fyi). We rarely were winning gamblers, though we had our moments. Some of us, including me, had good "opinions". Now, those of you who know gamblers will relate, cause every gambler thinks he has the right idea/opinion. They know which horse will win, they know which team will cover the spread, and they know, well, they know EVERYTHING. Thing is, even those gamblers I've met (including myself) that had legitimate good opinions, or insights a little more than maybe others, perhaps, usually lost. Why? Because gamblers are notorious for big egos (opinions) but low self esteem, or follow through, OR they spread themselves out too much and even when they are strong on something they wouldn't have any money left to take advantage of it cause they would lose on all the other games or horses, or poker hands where they weren't so sure. As a trader I've seen many traders with good opinions get smacked, that's why we preach money management so hard. When I use poor money management myself I lose a lot more often then I should. That's why we strongly urge clients to Plan your Trade and Trade your Plan!
OK, so whats the political comment? Right now, in my opinion, you have too many politicians acting like gamblers. Not just gamblers, but the worst kind of gamblers because they are gambling with our money, yes, but most importantly, our future and our children's futures. There are things that they have strong opinions on and they fight hard on, as well they should. Right or wrong, a person has to be true to their convictions. I respect that, even if I don't agree. What's happening now is that NO ONE can legitimately have a strong conviction about what the government is doing. How can I say that? Because we are in unchartered territory, there is nothing historically to base opinions on. Yet, instead of taking baby steps, they are acting like gamblers and going "all in" with our money, our future and our sons and daughters futures. I've given up being affiliated with any party, I think they both suck, frankly. Too many agenda's, and yes, too many opinions. Bad opinions. The stock market is just a reflection of this, when people don't know what the rules are, they can't value a companies worth, short or long term. Now, for us traders it's all good, the market doesn't know what its doing, but for us that creates volatility and that's all we need to create profits. It's ironic that that knucklehead congressman who introduced HR 1068 says that traders are gamblers. There's a saying that when you point one finger, three point back. I think that apropo in this instance. Traders are not gamblers, quite the contrary. There are traders who gamble, but traders themselves are not gamblers. Unfortunately I can't say the same thing about politicians, they seem to like gambling, and as with most gamblers, they continue and will continue to lose on nearly every bet until they get some help. Problem is, no one seems to be asking anyone in the knows opinion, they just quabble amongst themselves. Bush didn't create this, neither did Obama, they just keep it going. Shame on them all, Republicans, Democrats, whatever, they are all putting us all at risk.
Trading is gambling? Yeah, sure thing, we've made money the last two years, how have investors done? We've made money the last 11 years, how have investors done? If we're gamblers, then we're not the ones who need a 12 step meeting. PA? Politicians anonymous perhaps? 'Nuff said.
Actually, another short thought, hehe, gamblers also like to chop themselves up, so do some traders. I've done it myself at times. Go long, market reverses, go short, market reverses, go long again,etc,etc,etc. That's exactly what they are doing now, no taxes, yes taxes, no stimulus, yes stimulus, whatever it is, it ain't working.
RULE...and don't gamble!
OK, so not quite, BUT I said it yesterday, I think the banking sector probably has bottomed for a few days at least. I am long the banks, with hedges (MS and GS look putrid, but WFC, USB and others look a lot stronger here)
And, tech is next to drop is what I said, wha-la GOOG and AAPL bye bye, see ya.
We should get a bounce here Tuesday unless more bad news hits. We showed signs of wanting to bounce Monday, there's just no follow through. I'm thinking we should get some small bounce, at least, Tuesday, as a sneak attack bounce.
I had a very nice day, woosey and all, this market continues to pay the TRENDS off HUGE. Gaps have been AMAZINGLY fadeable and if you aren't playing them with us, you are costing yourself a boatload of cashola, folks! Nothing is guaranteed, but we are really killing this market. We had USB off the gap down for $2ish, we are just killing this market - KILLING IT!
I'm hoping we gap down Tuesday, I think it'll be a great buy on the financials. Remember, when people think they might be missing a rally they will pile in. I subscribe o the theory that people are much more worried about missing a rally then they are about protecting their cash. Plus shorts will need to cover, so...let's see what shakes and go from there. I'm basically bedridden for a few more days, so I'm proving that you can make money trading from anywhere, I did it today in my undies in bed under the covers in between naps! How's that for a testimonial? "Dude, you can make BIG Ka-chingos, dude, in your undies!"
But, it's true and you can do it, too...dudes and dudesses!
OK, so enough of my bluster. Thank you all that replied to the request for infomercial participants. If you still want to, there's still time, we'll be shooting this Saturday and we're looking for good stories so we can share the lovely little thing we call Trend Trading at Trendfund.com!
In the meantime, I gave you my opinion, I would be hedged long the financials here and buy the dips until we see otherwise. That doesn't mean an all out buy buy buy, hedged means exactly that, I am long some and short some, though net longer then shorter and most are with options (puts and calls) so downside is contained if wrong.
Have a good night all, I'm hitting the hay pretty soon! ROCK AND ROLL!
And, most of all - RULE!
WAXIE
*Oh, I wanted to make one political comment, growing up I hung out with a lot of gamblers. We were these Jewish kids who worshipped Italians, so I walked around Queens speaking Brooklynese (not every Italian speaks this,in fact most don't, but the ones we imitated did, fyi). We rarely were winning gamblers, though we had our moments. Some of us, including me, had good "opinions". Now, those of you who know gamblers will relate, cause every gambler thinks he has the right idea/opinion. They know which horse will win, they know which team will cover the spread, and they know, well, they know EVERYTHING. Thing is, even those gamblers I've met (including myself) that had legitimate good opinions, or insights a little more than maybe others, perhaps, usually lost. Why? Because gamblers are notorious for big egos (opinions) but low self esteem, or follow through, OR they spread themselves out too much and even when they are strong on something they wouldn't have any money left to take advantage of it cause they would lose on all the other games or horses, or poker hands where they weren't so sure. As a trader I've seen many traders with good opinions get smacked, that's why we preach money management so hard. When I use poor money management myself I lose a lot more often then I should. That's why we strongly urge clients to Plan your Trade and Trade your Plan!
OK, so whats the political comment? Right now, in my opinion, you have too many politicians acting like gamblers. Not just gamblers, but the worst kind of gamblers because they are gambling with our money, yes, but most importantly, our future and our children's futures. There are things that they have strong opinions on and they fight hard on, as well they should. Right or wrong, a person has to be true to their convictions. I respect that, even if I don't agree. What's happening now is that NO ONE can legitimately have a strong conviction about what the government is doing. How can I say that? Because we are in unchartered territory, there is nothing historically to base opinions on. Yet, instead of taking baby steps, they are acting like gamblers and going "all in" with our money, our future and our sons and daughters futures. I've given up being affiliated with any party, I think they both suck, frankly. Too many agenda's, and yes, too many opinions. Bad opinions. The stock market is just a reflection of this, when people don't know what the rules are, they can't value a companies worth, short or long term. Now, for us traders it's all good, the market doesn't know what its doing, but for us that creates volatility and that's all we need to create profits. It's ironic that that knucklehead congressman who introduced HR 1068 says that traders are gamblers. There's a saying that when you point one finger, three point back. I think that apropo in this instance. Traders are not gamblers, quite the contrary. There are traders who gamble, but traders themselves are not gamblers. Unfortunately I can't say the same thing about politicians, they seem to like gambling, and as with most gamblers, they continue and will continue to lose on nearly every bet until they get some help. Problem is, no one seems to be asking anyone in the knows opinion, they just quabble amongst themselves. Bush didn't create this, neither did Obama, they just keep it going. Shame on them all, Republicans, Democrats, whatever, they are all putting us all at risk.
Trading is gambling? Yeah, sure thing, we've made money the last two years, how have investors done? We've made money the last 11 years, how have investors done? If we're gamblers, then we're not the ones who need a 12 step meeting. PA? Politicians anonymous perhaps? 'Nuff said.
Actually, another short thought, hehe, gamblers also like to chop themselves up, so do some traders. I've done it myself at times. Go long, market reverses, go short, market reverses, go long again,etc,etc,etc. That's exactly what they are doing now, no taxes, yes taxes, no stimulus, yes stimulus, whatever it is, it ain't working.
RULE...and don't gamble!
Sunday, March 08, 2009
Thanks to all!
Thanks all for the well wishes, appreciate it! I'm alive and in pain, having spent all day yesterday in an ER, but my daugther is fine, at 5 its a lot quicker heal time, she's indestructible! :)
I have to gather my thoughts for the week, as soon as I do I'll post them. We may get a near term bounce. There's some sense to the notion that we will rally into the hearing on Mark to Market, and then sell the news when it happens. I'm fairly sure they will pass it if for no other reason then its the dumbest thing they can do. Since the 100% trend is they do the dumbest thing, it should pass. Losing mark to market is ludicrous, any accountant will tell you that its very important for the ingegrity of a companies books (and for shareholders) they you mark your assets and deficits to market. If they take that away it'll give investors false hope AGAIN and drive shares artificually higher, only to see them crushed even harder when they realize it won't work anyway. Hasn't that been the result of everything they do? Of course it has. We got rid of short selling, stocks rallied and then tanked, we did stimulus bills, stocks rallied and then tanked, etc,etc,etc.
When will they get that #1 anything and I do mean ANYTHING booyahhead recommends is a BAD IDEA. The guy hasn't been right about anything (nice bottom call! NOT!), and is all about self serving drivel. Yet some politicians get their que from the knucklehead.
Ending mark to market accting rules, or suspending them, will create a nice trading opp for us, but ultimately will just lead to LOWER stock prices, not higher ones. At some point perhaps they will get the notion that the market has to be allowed to do where it needs to go, it has nothing to do with short sellers, ETFs (the DUMBEST idea by booyahhead by far), stimulus plans or lack thereof, mark to market accting, etc. It only has to do with reality vs.fiction and reality is pretty bleak. Until reality is allowed to dictatea nd the market is allowed to trade where it should (below 5000 at least) we won't get any real bottom, only tradeable rallies.
I would not want to be short the financials here into the hearing, remember that nothing goes in a straight line and its better not to try to ride something to the last tick, your risk reward switches and you on the wrong side at some point and that point might be now. Watch tech for relative weakness. AAPLs slide Friday may be indicative of where they want to take money out of next. GOOG looks ready to bust below $300 and hold soon. Would love one more pop up to $340s to get short it for the long haul, we'll see.
TIny noted $260s on SKF, thats where it hit Friday and tehn reversed, so thats meaningful and should be watched closely, we may have had a double top in SKF, if so and it does make sense, the financials should get that pop I'm referring to. I like FITB, FAS, and USB for nice trades if so. FITB in $1.30 so downside seems limited if you trade it and don't go nuts. 1st target will be $2.50.
That's all I'm giving you, you should all sign up for memberships! :)
OH, very important! We are shooting our new infomercial this week in New York City. If you are interested in being on TV with me (you'll meet me and Tiny and eat with us and you can pick our brains for FREE!) please email me IMMEDIATELY @ waxie@trendfund.com. If you are out of town we may be able to bring you here and put you up for a day as well. Email; waxie@trendfund.com NOW and I'll hook you up!
Thanks and look forward to seeing ya all soon!
RULE!
Waxie
I have to gather my thoughts for the week, as soon as I do I'll post them. We may get a near term bounce. There's some sense to the notion that we will rally into the hearing on Mark to Market, and then sell the news when it happens. I'm fairly sure they will pass it if for no other reason then its the dumbest thing they can do. Since the 100% trend is they do the dumbest thing, it should pass. Losing mark to market is ludicrous, any accountant will tell you that its very important for the ingegrity of a companies books (and for shareholders) they you mark your assets and deficits to market. If they take that away it'll give investors false hope AGAIN and drive shares artificually higher, only to see them crushed even harder when they realize it won't work anyway. Hasn't that been the result of everything they do? Of course it has. We got rid of short selling, stocks rallied and then tanked, we did stimulus bills, stocks rallied and then tanked, etc,etc,etc.
When will they get that #1 anything and I do mean ANYTHING booyahhead recommends is a BAD IDEA. The guy hasn't been right about anything (nice bottom call! NOT!), and is all about self serving drivel. Yet some politicians get their que from the knucklehead.
Ending mark to market accting rules, or suspending them, will create a nice trading opp for us, but ultimately will just lead to LOWER stock prices, not higher ones. At some point perhaps they will get the notion that the market has to be allowed to do where it needs to go, it has nothing to do with short sellers, ETFs (the DUMBEST idea by booyahhead by far), stimulus plans or lack thereof, mark to market accting, etc. It only has to do with reality vs.fiction and reality is pretty bleak. Until reality is allowed to dictatea nd the market is allowed to trade where it should (below 5000 at least) we won't get any real bottom, only tradeable rallies.
I would not want to be short the financials here into the hearing, remember that nothing goes in a straight line and its better not to try to ride something to the last tick, your risk reward switches and you on the wrong side at some point and that point might be now. Watch tech for relative weakness. AAPLs slide Friday may be indicative of where they want to take money out of next. GOOG looks ready to bust below $300 and hold soon. Would love one more pop up to $340s to get short it for the long haul, we'll see.
TIny noted $260s on SKF, thats where it hit Friday and tehn reversed, so thats meaningful and should be watched closely, we may have had a double top in SKF, if so and it does make sense, the financials should get that pop I'm referring to. I like FITB, FAS, and USB for nice trades if so. FITB in $1.30 so downside seems limited if you trade it and don't go nuts. 1st target will be $2.50.
That's all I'm giving you, you should all sign up for memberships! :)
OH, very important! We are shooting our new infomercial this week in New York City. If you are interested in being on TV with me (you'll meet me and Tiny and eat with us and you can pick our brains for FREE!) please email me IMMEDIATELY @ waxie@trendfund.com. If you are out of town we may be able to bring you here and put you up for a day as well. Email; waxie@trendfund.com NOW and I'll hook you up!
Thanks and look forward to seeing ya all soon!
RULE!
Waxie
Thursday, March 05, 2009
So much for bottoms...
Guess these knuckleheads were a tad too early! Dang, we are just absolutely cracked. Anyone still want to tell me how nuts I am calling DOW 4500? Please, tell me how nuts I am, I want o hear it.
Where's my friend who kept sending me those emails saying DOW 12,000. Dow has ZERO shot of EVER seeing a new high. EVER. Not 10 years from now, not 1000 years from now. I said same thing about the Nasdaq and unfortunately I have to say it about the DOW, its TOAST, its never coming back to anywhere near 14,000. Mark it down.
The crazy thing is, we still have not had capitulation! It's insane, we may go to 1000 and people just hold on. At some point soon we'll get that capitulatory move and that will be a real buy. Yesterdays BS move was just that. Tomorrow will be interesting because Friday's have been the day shorts often cover and with the jobs #s coming we may buy them if they aren't absolutely atrocious. So, it'll be an interesting trading day.
I was in a pretty bad car accident tonight, just got back from the hospital. It's pretty horrid having your daughter be involved in something like that, but I'm grateful since it could have been much much worse. Guy ran a red light and rammed me basically. What sucks is, he claimed it was my fault. I tell ya, I lose faith in humanity sometimes, it was clear to everyone the guy screwed up, just admit it and move on. What can ya do, some people have no integrity.
In the meantime, I guess those airbags really do work. Man o man, I'm going to bed. I would cut back on size here today (Friday), next week should be a lot easier to predict.
See ya on the other side!
Waxie
Where's my friend who kept sending me those emails saying DOW 12,000. Dow has ZERO shot of EVER seeing a new high. EVER. Not 10 years from now, not 1000 years from now. I said same thing about the Nasdaq and unfortunately I have to say it about the DOW, its TOAST, its never coming back to anywhere near 14,000. Mark it down.
The crazy thing is, we still have not had capitulation! It's insane, we may go to 1000 and people just hold on. At some point soon we'll get that capitulatory move and that will be a real buy. Yesterdays BS move was just that. Tomorrow will be interesting because Friday's have been the day shorts often cover and with the jobs #s coming we may buy them if they aren't absolutely atrocious. So, it'll be an interesting trading day.
I was in a pretty bad car accident tonight, just got back from the hospital. It's pretty horrid having your daughter be involved in something like that, but I'm grateful since it could have been much much worse. Guy ran a red light and rammed me basically. What sucks is, he claimed it was my fault. I tell ya, I lose faith in humanity sometimes, it was clear to everyone the guy screwed up, just admit it and move on. What can ya do, some people have no integrity.
In the meantime, I guess those airbags really do work. Man o man, I'm going to bed. I would cut back on size here today (Friday), next week should be a lot easier to predict.
See ya on the other side!
Waxie
Wednesday, March 04, 2009
Bottoms and such...
A few years ago, actually it was 2002, I was asked to write a song for the Howard Stern show using a popular song about "bottoms" and while singing it I was supposed to spank a hooker on her, well, BOTTOM!
I had mixed feelings about this, but it seemed inocuous enough, sorta, so I agreed to write the song. I used a Dido song which was popular at the time, think Flag was the name or something like that and the start of the song was "Has anybody seen my bottom."
Even Howard Stern was fed up with talk about Bottoms! I never did the show, and we eventually did reach that bottom in 2003 (which we nailed PERFECTLY!). Todays meager rally has many pundits saying that the bottom is in. This is it! CNBC even trekked out guys who were right about the Bear market who now are bullish to prove that this is it! Booyahead called the bottom! (his last bottom call was July of last year at 11,000,fyi,so he's done well with his bottom calls!)
I've written extensively here that there is no such thing as a bottom, its just a dumb fantasy, its all #s, so who cares. What, now we are going to go to new highs? I mean, its ludicrous, but people in general like to feel warm and fuzzy and the fantasy that we aren't going to go any lower makes people feel warm and fuzzy. So, they want it defined. I understand the psychology of it. It's just annoying to talk about the same nonsense day in and day out.
The market very well may get some upside here. I spoke about that last night and thought we were close to getting a relief rally. I do not feel we have remotely bottomed, in terms of how its being used (the word bottom), but Bear markets get vicious relief tradeable rallies. If we gap down tomorrow (futures are down right now), baring bad news its a screaming buy for a trade. The gaps have been killing it these days, even today we faded the initial move before zooming higher and then selling off end of day. I lost today, first time in a while, I kicked myself because I thought we'd see some follow through into days end and we just sold off hard and it definately was not what I thought. See, even I am wrong sometimes! Hehe!
I've gotten so many emails recently (today) about bottoms, I just wanted to address it. You guys and gals should not worry about such stupidity. Just play the market as it comes, we're not going to go to 8500 so fast, let alone new highs (not ever happening again in my opinion), so a nice relief tradeable rally would be wonderful to set us up to catch that up and then ride it back down.
Watch APOL, I think this thing can see teens eventually, We had puts on it before and I think it sees much lower near and long term. And, thats the thing, bottoms are meaningless because look at today, the market rallied hard even with the selloff midday (roughly 150 pts) and yet APOL and many financials were cracked. So, whats good for one stock may or may not be good for another. Our job is to keep an open mind and seek trades both long and short.
I am going on a school field trip with my daughter tomorrow so I doubt I'll be around much, if at all. GOod luck in your trading - rock on!
Waxie
I had mixed feelings about this, but it seemed inocuous enough, sorta, so I agreed to write the song. I used a Dido song which was popular at the time, think Flag was the name or something like that and the start of the song was "Has anybody seen my bottom."
Even Howard Stern was fed up with talk about Bottoms! I never did the show, and we eventually did reach that bottom in 2003 (which we nailed PERFECTLY!). Todays meager rally has many pundits saying that the bottom is in. This is it! CNBC even trekked out guys who were right about the Bear market who now are bullish to prove that this is it! Booyahead called the bottom! (his last bottom call was July of last year at 11,000,fyi,so he's done well with his bottom calls!)
I've written extensively here that there is no such thing as a bottom, its just a dumb fantasy, its all #s, so who cares. What, now we are going to go to new highs? I mean, its ludicrous, but people in general like to feel warm and fuzzy and the fantasy that we aren't going to go any lower makes people feel warm and fuzzy. So, they want it defined. I understand the psychology of it. It's just annoying to talk about the same nonsense day in and day out.
The market very well may get some upside here. I spoke about that last night and thought we were close to getting a relief rally. I do not feel we have remotely bottomed, in terms of how its being used (the word bottom), but Bear markets get vicious relief tradeable rallies. If we gap down tomorrow (futures are down right now), baring bad news its a screaming buy for a trade. The gaps have been killing it these days, even today we faded the initial move before zooming higher and then selling off end of day. I lost today, first time in a while, I kicked myself because I thought we'd see some follow through into days end and we just sold off hard and it definately was not what I thought. See, even I am wrong sometimes! Hehe!
I've gotten so many emails recently (today) about bottoms, I just wanted to address it. You guys and gals should not worry about such stupidity. Just play the market as it comes, we're not going to go to 8500 so fast, let alone new highs (not ever happening again in my opinion), so a nice relief tradeable rally would be wonderful to set us up to catch that up and then ride it back down.
Watch APOL, I think this thing can see teens eventually, We had puts on it before and I think it sees much lower near and long term. And, thats the thing, bottoms are meaningless because look at today, the market rallied hard even with the selloff midday (roughly 150 pts) and yet APOL and many financials were cracked. So, whats good for one stock may or may not be good for another. Our job is to keep an open mind and seek trades both long and short.
I am going on a school field trip with my daughter tomorrow so I doubt I'll be around much, if at all. GOod luck in your trading - rock on!
Waxie
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
To the Gold bugs...
If you ain't trading it, you will get cracked as well. Gold should see $600s before it sees $1200. I would bet on that pretty strongly.
Frankly, you have several things going against you. #1 the dollar will remain strong for a good long while, its not that its so strong, its that everyone else is so weak.
And, booyahhead called it again at $1000! Last time he called it long it went from $1000 to $700s pretty fast. Looks like he did it again, called another top! Wheeee!
I do think Gold will come back into focus at some point when inflation comes back into play, but for now deflation is the mode of choice. EVERYTHING here is a TRADE, I called Gold again at $800ish and sold it near $1000. To me thats a great trade, I then shorted it and made about $35 on it, covering yesterday. Wish I held since it went down another $30, but thats ok, I'll live.
The inherent problem with Gold is what drives it and what will kill it and that is it has no real inherent value, its all a mind game. When people panic eventually it'll crack like everything else. Market is down and GOld is cracked here, expect more of the same over time.
There ya go, for those that asked!
Waxie
Frankly, you have several things going against you. #1 the dollar will remain strong for a good long while, its not that its so strong, its that everyone else is so weak.
And, booyahhead called it again at $1000! Last time he called it long it went from $1000 to $700s pretty fast. Looks like he did it again, called another top! Wheeee!
I do think Gold will come back into focus at some point when inflation comes back into play, but for now deflation is the mode of choice. EVERYTHING here is a TRADE, I called Gold again at $800ish and sold it near $1000. To me thats a great trade, I then shorted it and made about $35 on it, covering yesterday. Wish I held since it went down another $30, but thats ok, I'll live.
The inherent problem with Gold is what drives it and what will kill it and that is it has no real inherent value, its all a mind game. When people panic eventually it'll crack like everything else. Market is down and GOld is cracked here, expect more of the same over time.
There ya go, for those that asked!
Waxie
Finishing up and moving onward and upward (or downward!)
OK, I literally fell asleep while writing the blog last night. I had gotten a ton of requests to comment, so I felt compelled. I just wanted to finish up by saying the following about our culture of consumption...
Again as I write this the futures are gapping up. Again today on CNBC and elsewhere there were tons of pundits proclaiming that now is the buy of a lifetime, that we are nearing a spectacular rally and that the bottom is in!
I want to submit to you the following. It is exactly this attitude, and our seemingly never ending persuit of that all elusive "bottom" that is the over consumption.
How you ask? Because this thinking is exactly the same as when my 7 and 5 year old girls ask me when they are going to get ice cream. Their reasoning can be several things, it can be that they just finished eating, they were good, or they ate something good for them (healthy that I wanted them to eat) and thus they deserved dessert.
The REAL and only question that investors should ask is what is REALITY, what are these companies REALLY worth. No one asks that question, they ask where the BOTTOM is. Instead of doing ANY work, they just want to be told where the bottom is. Instead of doing ANY work, they want it handed to them, for no other reason then they deserve it!
The question is not where the bottom is, then, it is when should you buy stocks that are actually good investments based on reality, and not pulp fiction. I've NEVER heard that. Do you believe that every day some other IDIOT treks on saying that you should buy financials. I mean, seriously, who the hell thinks for real that these stocks 50,000 years from now will be worth ANYTHING? Because if you do, cool, email me and ask me for my bargain prices on the Brooklyn Bridge, or the next hot real estate deals in New York City's FAMOUS sewer system! It's UNBELIEVABLE, I laugh and then want to puke when these morons are allowed to say such irresponsible and obviously completely ignorant things. And, before anyone tells me that everyone is entitled to an opinion, and that I myself preach that, that only applies to ANYTHING that is remotely sane. If you ask a homeless person for his opinion on the latest bottle of Dom Perignon champagne, he or she may offer you an opinion, but it is highly unlikely to be based on him/her actually tasting it! Well, that's exactly the same thing. these "analysts" clearly haven't tasted financial stocks. These stocks are almost all going to ZERO. At this point even my harshest critics take me seriously. ZERO. You couldn't pay me 90% of the share price upfront for me to buy most of these stocks, even the $20 or $30 ones if I had to hold it for a year or more before I could sell. I think in a year most are unlikely to exist.
So, there ya go, until people understand that this is NOT the buy of a lifetime, that this has been the SELL of a lifetime, all we will get are bounces and rallies that fail ultimately.
From here I think we are not that close from a capitulatory move. Watch for a volume spike on a fast move DOWN. That would be a nice entry. I still think SRS has upside as commercial real estate is SHOT. I also saw the news on GOOG afterhours and luckily (or just smart) our Options Traders clients have puts on GOOG. Tell ya, we really are ROCKING! Today's action was sick, another stupid gap up on no news, only to be cracked. And, it may happen again tomorrow, so let's rock again!
In and out, out and in, baby!
RULE!
WAxie
Again as I write this the futures are gapping up. Again today on CNBC and elsewhere there were tons of pundits proclaiming that now is the buy of a lifetime, that we are nearing a spectacular rally and that the bottom is in!
I want to submit to you the following. It is exactly this attitude, and our seemingly never ending persuit of that all elusive "bottom" that is the over consumption.
How you ask? Because this thinking is exactly the same as when my 7 and 5 year old girls ask me when they are going to get ice cream. Their reasoning can be several things, it can be that they just finished eating, they were good, or they ate something good for them (healthy that I wanted them to eat) and thus they deserved dessert.
The REAL and only question that investors should ask is what is REALITY, what are these companies REALLY worth. No one asks that question, they ask where the BOTTOM is. Instead of doing ANY work, they just want to be told where the bottom is. Instead of doing ANY work, they want it handed to them, for no other reason then they deserve it!
The question is not where the bottom is, then, it is when should you buy stocks that are actually good investments based on reality, and not pulp fiction. I've NEVER heard that. Do you believe that every day some other IDIOT treks on saying that you should buy financials. I mean, seriously, who the hell thinks for real that these stocks 50,000 years from now will be worth ANYTHING? Because if you do, cool, email me and ask me for my bargain prices on the Brooklyn Bridge, or the next hot real estate deals in New York City's FAMOUS sewer system! It's UNBELIEVABLE, I laugh and then want to puke when these morons are allowed to say such irresponsible and obviously completely ignorant things. And, before anyone tells me that everyone is entitled to an opinion, and that I myself preach that, that only applies to ANYTHING that is remotely sane. If you ask a homeless person for his opinion on the latest bottle of Dom Perignon champagne, he or she may offer you an opinion, but it is highly unlikely to be based on him/her actually tasting it! Well, that's exactly the same thing. these "analysts" clearly haven't tasted financial stocks. These stocks are almost all going to ZERO. At this point even my harshest critics take me seriously. ZERO. You couldn't pay me 90% of the share price upfront for me to buy most of these stocks, even the $20 or $30 ones if I had to hold it for a year or more before I could sell. I think in a year most are unlikely to exist.
So, there ya go, until people understand that this is NOT the buy of a lifetime, that this has been the SELL of a lifetime, all we will get are bounces and rallies that fail ultimately.
From here I think we are not that close from a capitulatory move. Watch for a volume spike on a fast move DOWN. That would be a nice entry. I still think SRS has upside as commercial real estate is SHOT. I also saw the news on GOOG afterhours and luckily (or just smart) our Options Traders clients have puts on GOOG. Tell ya, we really are ROCKING! Today's action was sick, another stupid gap up on no news, only to be cracked. And, it may happen again tomorrow, so let's rock again!
In and out, out and in, baby!
RULE!
WAxie
Monday, March 02, 2009
SCARED STRAIGHT...
You guys and gals remember that documentary/show they had years ago where they took at-risk kids (kids who were headed down the road of crime), and they exposed them to real convicts/real tough guys/gals who literally scared them straight. They went in thinking they were tough and untouchable and many of them walked out changed and "scared straight". This format has now been copied on a bunch of reality TV shows, anything from Murray Povich, to some bootcamp episodes on some other shows.
What does any of this have to do with the market, or frankly anything else? Well, I'm using it as a metaphor for what's going on not just here in the US, but perhaps around the world.
I've been thinking alot about who is to blame, what companies, what executives, what politicians for the crisis the entire world now is stuck in for potentially years (many) to come. And, while I can point to a lot of things, and people, and corporations, and systems and other(s), I've come up with only one answer that I feel binds them all.
Now, before I get a bit into it, some of you will find this ridiculous, or offensive, and in my mind that's part of the problem. Not that anyone is "wrong" and I'm "right" but that part of the problem, a large part of it is cultural and spiritual in nature.
We are a culture of consumption. From the day we are born we are force fed at first, and then choose (many of us) to indulge in consumption. Comsumption of games and toys and stuffed animals when we are babies, and then candy, fast food, more games/toys, dolls, designer clothes, fast cars, SUV's, etc, etc, you get the point as we get older. We were and still are fed the idea that the stock market is meant to be consumed. Not eaten, mind you, but bid up into infinity, despite what logic and reality would dictate.
And, all the while we grow fat as a nation while others starve around the world, and amongst us. Now, mind you, I am not excluding myself from any of this, it's my job to help you guys and gals be gluttons for profits. I try to teach and sneak some other, perhaps self=helpy "stuff" in there, but mainly that's my goal, to make you all fat-cats.
We can spend trillions of dollars on wars where we probably don't even belong fighting them, but even if one argues we do and needed to, it doesn't change the fact that we can spend trillions on that, and yet people starve here and abroad. Much of the world doesn't have clean water, nor proper health care. And, many of us, myself at times included, complain about not having a nice enough car, or house, or retirement plan. We consume to make us feel better about our lives, or for ego purposes, but ultimately there is one real truth, we all bleed the same, most of us are born from wombs and ultimately we all die the same.
This problem was borne of consumption, and the feeling that we all needed MORE. That what we have and have had isn't good enough. It's borne of the need to CONSUME as much as we can for as long as we can, to bid up stocks higher and higher, spitting in the face of all logic, and reality.
It is, to me, a spiritual problem. It is an INSIDE JOB, it's not any group of people or corporations. Its not Wall Street vs. Main Street, its the world against itself, its China and Japan, and India and Germany and the UK, and Iceland, and Russia and its US, and others. It's an unwillingness to deal in reality.
I get accused, at times, of being the grim reaper. Most know I deal in reality and we've called and nailed this market for a long time. Many know part of my story, in a way my story is aligned with the theme of tonights blog entry. In brief I was saving to make an indie film from a script I wrote that was a finalist for the Sundance Writer/Director labs, and that was optioned by Dennis Hopper. Making films has always been my dream, still is, and I had put away over $100,000. I had a goal in mind of saving $200,000 and funding the film myself. A friend of mine got a job at a very small brokerage firm and said I should give him some money rather then just let my money sit in a bank account earning interest. So, I did, I gave him part of what I had and in a short period he made me a very large % on my money. In fact, I probably could then have made my film, and fulfilled one of my dreams. Instead, thinking that it was easy money, I gave him almost all my money. In short, the market tanked, I lost most of my money and had to move from a very nice Tribeca apartment to a 5 floor walkup. From a 2000+ sf apt to a 350 sf one. Of course, that episode, while painful at that point, ended up being the impetus to starting Trendfund.com, but the point is that I had what I wanted in my hands and I got greedy. What do we say to you all the time? GREED = DEATH. People who bought houses that they couldn't afford because they wanted the American dream, they were entitled.
Companies that were highly profitable developed derivatives and kept leveraging more and more in order to pump up stock prices. Sports figures, actors, union officials who pushed the car makers to the brink of self-destruction, and hence their own constituency in the process. We have not thought long term, for the most part, only short term and at times instant gratification.
Our savings rate was NEGATIVE until all this crisis started. NEGATIVE. As credit cards extended more and more credit to unworthy parties simply to drive up share prices and bolster potential profits.
So, here is where all this ties in for me for today, right now, right here;
The government continues to make EVERY WRONG MOVE possible in my opinion. Instead of praising Americans for pushing their savings accounts to 5+% rate and rising, everything they are doing is meant to try to get us to spend, and spend more. Instead of allowing home owners who shouldn't own right now due to lack of finances, we are taking taxpayer monies to keep those people in their houses. Instead of being prudent, they have given the banks and others billions and trillions, rewarding them for their horrible efforts.
And now, every day, pundits trek onto CNBC calling bottoms for the last 4000 points. I guess the idea is that at some point one of them will be right! Hey, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.
There isn't a prayer in hell this is a "buy of a lifetime" and yet I've heard this nonsense all the way down.
We need to take a step back and reflect. We are headed to setting up more bubbles, perhaps the same ones we just got out of. Is this the answer?
Is the market bottomed? To both, I say NO. We should get a very nice rally shortly, if not Tuesday. We may even get a bigger extended up move, but it'll end badly unfortunately.
Until there is a change of policy, we are basically doomed to darkness and until these pundits let the market fall to its proper place, we will continue to ulimately just chop around and be sloppy.
Even now as I am falling asleep, the market is bounced up future wise. FYI, I am bearish on GOLD now.
What does any of this have to do with the market, or frankly anything else? Well, I'm using it as a metaphor for what's going on not just here in the US, but perhaps around the world.
I've been thinking alot about who is to blame, what companies, what executives, what politicians for the crisis the entire world now is stuck in for potentially years (many) to come. And, while I can point to a lot of things, and people, and corporations, and systems and other(s), I've come up with only one answer that I feel binds them all.
Now, before I get a bit into it, some of you will find this ridiculous, or offensive, and in my mind that's part of the problem. Not that anyone is "wrong" and I'm "right" but that part of the problem, a large part of it is cultural and spiritual in nature.
We are a culture of consumption. From the day we are born we are force fed at first, and then choose (many of us) to indulge in consumption. Comsumption of games and toys and stuffed animals when we are babies, and then candy, fast food, more games/toys, dolls, designer clothes, fast cars, SUV's, etc, etc, you get the point as we get older. We were and still are fed the idea that the stock market is meant to be consumed. Not eaten, mind you, but bid up into infinity, despite what logic and reality would dictate.
And, all the while we grow fat as a nation while others starve around the world, and amongst us. Now, mind you, I am not excluding myself from any of this, it's my job to help you guys and gals be gluttons for profits. I try to teach and sneak some other, perhaps self=helpy "stuff" in there, but mainly that's my goal, to make you all fat-cats.
We can spend trillions of dollars on wars where we probably don't even belong fighting them, but even if one argues we do and needed to, it doesn't change the fact that we can spend trillions on that, and yet people starve here and abroad. Much of the world doesn't have clean water, nor proper health care. And, many of us, myself at times included, complain about not having a nice enough car, or house, or retirement plan. We consume to make us feel better about our lives, or for ego purposes, but ultimately there is one real truth, we all bleed the same, most of us are born from wombs and ultimately we all die the same.
This problem was borne of consumption, and the feeling that we all needed MORE. That what we have and have had isn't good enough. It's borne of the need to CONSUME as much as we can for as long as we can, to bid up stocks higher and higher, spitting in the face of all logic, and reality.
It is, to me, a spiritual problem. It is an INSIDE JOB, it's not any group of people or corporations. Its not Wall Street vs. Main Street, its the world against itself, its China and Japan, and India and Germany and the UK, and Iceland, and Russia and its US, and others. It's an unwillingness to deal in reality.
I get accused, at times, of being the grim reaper. Most know I deal in reality and we've called and nailed this market for a long time. Many know part of my story, in a way my story is aligned with the theme of tonights blog entry. In brief I was saving to make an indie film from a script I wrote that was a finalist for the Sundance Writer/Director labs, and that was optioned by Dennis Hopper. Making films has always been my dream, still is, and I had put away over $100,000. I had a goal in mind of saving $200,000 and funding the film myself. A friend of mine got a job at a very small brokerage firm and said I should give him some money rather then just let my money sit in a bank account earning interest. So, I did, I gave him part of what I had and in a short period he made me a very large % on my money. In fact, I probably could then have made my film, and fulfilled one of my dreams. Instead, thinking that it was easy money, I gave him almost all my money. In short, the market tanked, I lost most of my money and had to move from a very nice Tribeca apartment to a 5 floor walkup. From a 2000+ sf apt to a 350 sf one. Of course, that episode, while painful at that point, ended up being the impetus to starting Trendfund.com, but the point is that I had what I wanted in my hands and I got greedy. What do we say to you all the time? GREED = DEATH. People who bought houses that they couldn't afford because they wanted the American dream, they were entitled.
Companies that were highly profitable developed derivatives and kept leveraging more and more in order to pump up stock prices. Sports figures, actors, union officials who pushed the car makers to the brink of self-destruction, and hence their own constituency in the process. We have not thought long term, for the most part, only short term and at times instant gratification.
Our savings rate was NEGATIVE until all this crisis started. NEGATIVE. As credit cards extended more and more credit to unworthy parties simply to drive up share prices and bolster potential profits.
So, here is where all this ties in for me for today, right now, right here;
The government continues to make EVERY WRONG MOVE possible in my opinion. Instead of praising Americans for pushing their savings accounts to 5+% rate and rising, everything they are doing is meant to try to get us to spend, and spend more. Instead of allowing home owners who shouldn't own right now due to lack of finances, we are taking taxpayer monies to keep those people in their houses. Instead of being prudent, they have given the banks and others billions and trillions, rewarding them for their horrible efforts.
And now, every day, pundits trek onto CNBC calling bottoms for the last 4000 points. I guess the idea is that at some point one of them will be right! Hey, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.
There isn't a prayer in hell this is a "buy of a lifetime" and yet I've heard this nonsense all the way down.
We need to take a step back and reflect. We are headed to setting up more bubbles, perhaps the same ones we just got out of. Is this the answer?
Is the market bottomed? To both, I say NO. We should get a very nice rally shortly, if not Tuesday. We may even get a bigger extended up move, but it'll end badly unfortunately.
Until there is a change of policy, we are basically doomed to darkness and until these pundits let the market fall to its proper place, we will continue to ulimately just chop around and be sloppy.
Even now as I am falling asleep, the market is bounced up future wise. FYI, I am bearish on GOLD now.
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