Thursday, June 26, 2008
Ought O Spagetti O'sssssss!
Look, folks. I don't want to say I've told you so. I've warned you, I've begged you - PLEASE SELL YOUR STOCKS!!! PLEASE GET OUT!!! Investors are going to get MURDERED in this market. If you are not heeding it, which is your perogative, then may your financials rest in peace. The DOW will be UNDER 8000, and the Nasdaq will be under 1500 in a land not so far away. In fact, the DOW could see 5000s and the Nasdaq could see under 1000. You need to wake up and smell REALITY. Stop throwing your hard earned money away! Just stop! Sell now and regroup. There are other ways to make big returns in the market. You can try trading with us. You can try Forex, you can try shorting every bounce here. You can try hedging your investments at least to protect yourself! We can teach you all that and more. What we can't teach you is how to not lose money as an investor because if I'm right then this is going to get VERY VERY bloody. VERY. MUCH worse than 2000 to 2003. I expect several LARGE banks to go under. I expect MANY regionals to go under. And, I expect GOOG to see $100s by the time this is over with. Many chided me when I said on National TV and National Radio and in print that oil would be $100 and then $150 that I was crazy, that I was dumb, that I didn't know what I was talking about. The clips, some of them, are on the site in our media center at www.trendfund.com go see for yourself. I hope I am wrong, but I don't think I will be. You want an investment? SKF. Buy that and hold it for a year, I think you'll be quite happy. It should be north of $250. It's the inverse on the financial sector, so its a good way to play that sector short, by buying SKF long. OK, now you want to hear the crazy part of todays blog? I think we will get a HUGE bounce shortly. I'm not calling it here, sorry. My clients pay too much money, so you'll have to join some service to hear it. Hey, maybe it'll be wrong, but I have a sneaky suspicion it won't be. Nothing goes up or down in a straight line. Let me tell you something, over the years my experience is that when GS (Goldman) makes a call like they made today on C, adding it to their conviction sell list (where were they when it was $30s and I said it would be under $10?) there is usually an alterior motive. I have a sneaky suspicion of what that might be, and I plan on playing it pretty strongly soon. If we gap up on no news tomorrow, which we're up on the futures now, it's a pretty safe short, folks. I doubt we're going very far on a Friday after a move like we had today. Better chance we get a further extension down then a huge rally/bounce. But, we'll see. Tiny likes a Bob and Weave day and I agree. I think we fade the intial move, then try to fade it again the other way, and then fade that again. But, if we do get a trend day on no news you'd have to say better shot its down then up, right? Monday we are doing our SMALL CAP MONSTER class. We have 3 new Small Cap Monsters ready to roll out. I think you all should attend the class. I'll post the info here tomorrow, please sign up and get some real solid, in my opinion and though there are no guarantees, some really solid small cap plays! Our 1st Two Small Cap monsters are holding strong and moving higher even in this insane market! Just remember, when the DOW is sitting under 10,000 this year and if you keep investing, just remember who told ya to GET THE FREAK OUT NOW! The worst is yet to come and investors need to wake up and smell the proverbial roses, the coffee pot is boiled over, babies. This sucker is OVERDONE and OVERDUE. Even as I write this the Dow futures are up over 20 pts! Why? Investors die hard, but in this market they will die, I believe. Don't hate me cause I speak the truth, embrace it and learn to earn! Email me if you want to sign up for a service and I'm happy to help you do so. waxie@trendfund.com See ya on the other side, Michael "Waxie" Parness
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
FED...UP...
OK, so from a trading perspective Wednesday was TEXTBOOK! One of our finer trends and one highlighted on several of our DVDs (email me if you want a list - waxie@trendfund.com). is to fade the FOMC. Not only that, to fade it and refade it. Knock on wood, this trend has KICKED BUTT every time since I can remember. Market got a HUGE spike off the FOMC and then sold off and then rallied again, and then sold off again into ORCL and RIMM earnings, which we said would be KEY. MON earnings were just as key, and that sector initially sold off DRAMATICALLY. So far RIMM is holding the same. RIMM is down nearly $10 afterhours as I write this. Their EPS # and guide was HORRIBLE, but their revenues and guidance on that level were both above consensus. ORCL sold off as well. Tomorrow is either going to mark some type of trading bottom, or we are tank city. We'll see soon enough.
In the meantime, I'm going to probably be off for a few days. I'll try to post some, but I'm moving and won't be looking much while transitioning to the new place and setting my "stuff" up.
Watch the ER (Russell) here. I have a feeling TECH is next to get cracked in this market. The notion is gonna start to set in that - duh - tech is NOT a safe haven for anyone during an economic meltdown. Sorry, it doesn't work that way. These stocks are mostly going to get crushed! ER target remains 300s and Nasdaq target remains a retest of 2003 lows at 1100s. A NEW Grinch list is about to come out, stay tuned!
In the meantime, our 2nd issue of SMALL CAP MONSTERS is due out next week. We are doing a class to introduce the service and 3 Small Cap ENERGY names we feel are doubles to ten baggers over the next year. So far our two picks from the 1st newslettere are INSANE! SATC has been a double basically and DEPO is cruising as well! So, we're 2 for 2 and moving forward.
Hold the market fort down for me!
Oh, one more brief item. I got an email disagreeing with my take on the oil and energy crisis. Specifically they have an issue with my idea of adding a huge tax to gas and making it so high people stop consuming, or at least dramatically cut back, which I believe would lead to lower oil prices. They hated my idea. That's totally cool. Part of the fun of writing a blog is hearing what YOU guys think and feel and your wins and even your losses. (How about our GS short call with 40 minutes left in the day that netted at least $2!)
My point is, this country and free speech go hand and hand. It sucks when anyone tries to shut someone else off from having a thought or opinion. Having said that, no bashing, please. This is a blog that hopefully gets people thinking and reacting to the stock market and other things as well. You hear mine and if you disagree I respect your opinion, even if I don't agree. I'll respect yours same!
RULE and be careful folks, financials looking beat to death again.
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
*If you are interested in the Small Cap Monsters newsletter, please email me - waxie@trendfund.com
RULE!
In the meantime, I'm going to probably be off for a few days. I'll try to post some, but I'm moving and won't be looking much while transitioning to the new place and setting my "stuff" up.
Watch the ER (Russell) here. I have a feeling TECH is next to get cracked in this market. The notion is gonna start to set in that - duh - tech is NOT a safe haven for anyone during an economic meltdown. Sorry, it doesn't work that way. These stocks are mostly going to get crushed! ER target remains 300s and Nasdaq target remains a retest of 2003 lows at 1100s. A NEW Grinch list is about to come out, stay tuned!
In the meantime, our 2nd issue of SMALL CAP MONSTERS is due out next week. We are doing a class to introduce the service and 3 Small Cap ENERGY names we feel are doubles to ten baggers over the next year. So far our two picks from the 1st newslettere are INSANE! SATC has been a double basically and DEPO is cruising as well! So, we're 2 for 2 and moving forward.
Hold the market fort down for me!
Oh, one more brief item. I got an email disagreeing with my take on the oil and energy crisis. Specifically they have an issue with my idea of adding a huge tax to gas and making it so high people stop consuming, or at least dramatically cut back, which I believe would lead to lower oil prices. They hated my idea. That's totally cool. Part of the fun of writing a blog is hearing what YOU guys think and feel and your wins and even your losses. (How about our GS short call with 40 minutes left in the day that netted at least $2!)
My point is, this country and free speech go hand and hand. It sucks when anyone tries to shut someone else off from having a thought or opinion. Having said that, no bashing, please. This is a blog that hopefully gets people thinking and reacting to the stock market and other things as well. You hear mine and if you disagree I respect your opinion, even if I don't agree. I'll respect yours same!
RULE and be careful folks, financials looking beat to death again.
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
*If you are interested in the Small Cap Monsters newsletter, please email me - waxie@trendfund.com
RULE!
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Please please please, dear Bernanke, please save usssssss!
Ah, ya, ok, the Fed has done such a wonderful job. We should have known this dude was clearly clueless when he first started and he immediately leaked policy to Maria on CNBC at a party while apparently having a bit too many to drink! Anyone else remember that?
I have to say, the Fed is so clueless at this point I'm going to have a hard time bashing them anymore, because what do you say that hasn't been said?
Tiny got a call today from an old client who said that, and I paraphrase - "you're crazy whacky Waxie boss called oil to $150 4 years ago! I can't believe it!" Wanna know what? I can't believe it either, not because I'm right, but only beccause this could have been avoided. Now? I'm sorry, but my new target on oil is $250+. Consumption levels are going to continue to CLIMB and there's no alternative online, or that will be online at this point for at least 15 - 20 years that is going to really make a dent. Do you realize that our major advance over the last 20 years to find an alternative to oil is Ethanol? I mean, it's ridiculous. And, here's the rub, the oil companies have lobbied to keep things status quo for all this time, but the backlash, they are seeing, is tremendous. As a trader I say "Greed = death". I think the same holds true in business as well often times. I'm a capitalist. I believe that hard work should be paid well. I like to make as much money as the next guy, but there comes a time when you are gouging your clientele so badly that they turn on you. Everything is risk vs. reward. Oil has become so ridiculous, it's like crack cocaine for the masses. It's ironic, I have not agreed with a lot of Bloomberg's policies. I think he over incentivized landlords and builders to create jobs, which is good in specific instances, to the point where the overbuilding has contributed to the real estate issues NYC is most definately going to face moving forward. He also didn't think ahead in terms of creating schools for all the families to attend, but it's easy to be a back seat driver. Bloomberg is one of the few politicians who has now come out and said what I've been saying - RAISE the gas/oil taxes LARGE! Most everyone else is asking for taxes to be lowered to get the price temporarily and artificially down. That can't possibly be anything but a political vote grabbing ploy. Raise it $5 a gallon. Raise it $10 a gallon in TAX alone. Make gas $10 - $15, or even $20 a gallon and use the tax monies to subsidize people who need the gas to get to work, or who qualify salary wise. I know I've said it, it just drives me nuts. Look, I'll be one of the first to start taking public transportation ALL the time. I'd keep a car but I would RARELY use it. You do that, you will cut consumption by 25 - 30% I believe. If the oil cartel, even temporarily, finds they have too much oil and no less people are paying for it, they will 100% figure out ways to lower the prices. It gives us leverage. Right now we have ZERO leverage. Less than zero!
Tomorrow is FOMC day. This one is a total non event. The market today traded HORRIBLY! I have to admit, it was a tough day to trade. We died and then bounced heavy (which we called and caught) but then the death into the close definately took me by surprise. I didn't think we would zoom, but I thought we would at least trade sideways. We closed near the lows all around. The tech sector tanked heavy. MON, which reports in the am, sold off right into the close. Unless they blow out, they should trade down pretty steeply. I don't own it either way, but that group does look a tad heavy already, MON better blow out big, or watch out below on all those AG stocks! The financials tried to bounce but couldnt' sustain it. Remember, into the end of the quarter the rich get richer stock performance wise, and the poor get poorer! So, we'll see what MON does and then after the close we have RIMM reporting and that is going to be a HUGE market for techs to measure up to. This market looks ready to roll over and die. That would be good for it, to really capitulate. It may very well happen tomorrow if the Fed doesn't say anything helpful. Remember not to get in front of a bullish bus, or a bearish knife! Go with the flow, not against it! We'll have our longside trade shortly - stay tuned!
We're doing our Small Cap Monster class next Monday, hopefully I'll see ya all there! I'll post info ASAP!
RULE!
Waxie
I have to say, the Fed is so clueless at this point I'm going to have a hard time bashing them anymore, because what do you say that hasn't been said?
Tiny got a call today from an old client who said that, and I paraphrase - "you're crazy whacky Waxie boss called oil to $150 4 years ago! I can't believe it!" Wanna know what? I can't believe it either, not because I'm right, but only beccause this could have been avoided. Now? I'm sorry, but my new target on oil is $250+. Consumption levels are going to continue to CLIMB and there's no alternative online, or that will be online at this point for at least 15 - 20 years that is going to really make a dent. Do you realize that our major advance over the last 20 years to find an alternative to oil is Ethanol? I mean, it's ridiculous. And, here's the rub, the oil companies have lobbied to keep things status quo for all this time, but the backlash, they are seeing, is tremendous. As a trader I say "Greed = death". I think the same holds true in business as well often times. I'm a capitalist. I believe that hard work should be paid well. I like to make as much money as the next guy, but there comes a time when you are gouging your clientele so badly that they turn on you. Everything is risk vs. reward. Oil has become so ridiculous, it's like crack cocaine for the masses. It's ironic, I have not agreed with a lot of Bloomberg's policies. I think he over incentivized landlords and builders to create jobs, which is good in specific instances, to the point where the overbuilding has contributed to the real estate issues NYC is most definately going to face moving forward. He also didn't think ahead in terms of creating schools for all the families to attend, but it's easy to be a back seat driver. Bloomberg is one of the few politicians who has now come out and said what I've been saying - RAISE the gas/oil taxes LARGE! Most everyone else is asking for taxes to be lowered to get the price temporarily and artificially down. That can't possibly be anything but a political vote grabbing ploy. Raise it $5 a gallon. Raise it $10 a gallon in TAX alone. Make gas $10 - $15, or even $20 a gallon and use the tax monies to subsidize people who need the gas to get to work, or who qualify salary wise. I know I've said it, it just drives me nuts. Look, I'll be one of the first to start taking public transportation ALL the time. I'd keep a car but I would RARELY use it. You do that, you will cut consumption by 25 - 30% I believe. If the oil cartel, even temporarily, finds they have too much oil and no less people are paying for it, they will 100% figure out ways to lower the prices. It gives us leverage. Right now we have ZERO leverage. Less than zero!
Tomorrow is FOMC day. This one is a total non event. The market today traded HORRIBLY! I have to admit, it was a tough day to trade. We died and then bounced heavy (which we called and caught) but then the death into the close definately took me by surprise. I didn't think we would zoom, but I thought we would at least trade sideways. We closed near the lows all around. The tech sector tanked heavy. MON, which reports in the am, sold off right into the close. Unless they blow out, they should trade down pretty steeply. I don't own it either way, but that group does look a tad heavy already, MON better blow out big, or watch out below on all those AG stocks! The financials tried to bounce but couldnt' sustain it. Remember, into the end of the quarter the rich get richer stock performance wise, and the poor get poorer! So, we'll see what MON does and then after the close we have RIMM reporting and that is going to be a HUGE market for techs to measure up to. This market looks ready to roll over and die. That would be good for it, to really capitulate. It may very well happen tomorrow if the Fed doesn't say anything helpful. Remember not to get in front of a bullish bus, or a bearish knife! Go with the flow, not against it! We'll have our longside trade shortly - stay tuned!
We're doing our Small Cap Monster class next Monday, hopefully I'll see ya all there! I'll post info ASAP!
RULE!
Waxie
Monday, June 23, 2008
Get up, stand up, stand up for your rights!
Man, I love Bob Marley.
OK, so the market did exactly what the Window Dressing trend dicates it should do the last week of a quarter - the HOT got HOTTER and the COLD got COLDER!
This is setting up VERY NICELY for our next big winner(s)! And, of course our current TOP PICKS and OPTION PLAYS are simply DELIROUSLY ROCKING!
ENER, GDP, ICO, etc, etc. How sick are they? WOWSA!
Plus, our puts on WFMI and the financials (LM) are delicious and gonna get more so! There is NO BOTTOM to this group until...we say so! :)
This weekend I saw a movie that I swear was commissioned by the MTA or YOUR local public transit authority. What movie? THE HAPPENING!
I actually didn't think it was as dreadful as most critics. It was predictable and fairly inocuous, but harmless. What it really is is a PSA (Public service announcement) for public transportation. STAY AWAY FROM THE GRASS! Yes, stay away from the grass and go under ground...and take the subway!
Or bus, I guess.
Anyhow, this market is UGLY. I mean its REALLY ugly. Did I say it was really ugly? It's ugly. I think MER is almost a sure thing to go under $30 into earnings. Who in their right mind is going to buy MER here now? LEH continues its descent to under $10 or worse final destination = zero and in Bear Stearns fiery pit of hell. (no offense to anyone).
I just do not see these things getting any significant bounce that can last until a bunch of them fail. I have a ton on my list of banks that are going to go UNDER. SOV, WM, FED, COF all potentially can fail in my opinion. There are a lot more that could. C has SERIOUS issues, but the Fed would probably bail them out as that would sink the entire country potentially. This whole sector is SHOT and you need to avoid it at ANY cost, other than maybe for a trade when the time is right.
Stick with the hot this week and you should be fine.It's kinda nice trading cause you can short the financials as a hedge against the ENER and GDP's of the world that we like and get winners BOTH ways! That's the way, ah huh, ah huh, we like it, ah huh ah huh!
Oil went higher after the Saudi meeting. Duhhhhhh. Dudes and dudesses, does anyone think that these countries are concerned about lowering the price of oil? Hehe, that's funny. I mean, that's like saying that you want to give money away. Right now these countries rule the world. We can pretend we do, or Europe, but it's an illusion. If we did we'd be able to tell these countries to lower the price and open the valves up full throttle.
The biggest problem, and I have said it again and again, is that there was no one preparing for what really was inevitable. That's not hindsight, oil has risen precipitously for many many years. Yes, its risen a lot faster the last 2 years, but it's risen steadily over the years. Why didn't anyone do anything? Again, this is our leaders fault. It's very disturbing to me that we continue to do things AFTER the fact, not before. In July's Trend Profit Report newsletter (email me if you want to subscribe - waxie@trendfund.com). I rant in depth about this issue. I'll publish the article here on the blog in the next few days for ya if ya want, but I just don't get it. NONE of this should be a surprise and yet here we are. And now they want to do things? It's going to take a MINIMUM of 10 years to really make headway. I've believed in the peak oil theory for years. I think we can only produce so much and that until there is a movement to stop certain luxury practices, forget it. We need to stop the things we've been doing, and do something different! Ever hear the saying - "If you do the same things, you get the same results." Or, "Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results". Either one is apropo. And, either one leads us to a very bad ending to our economic woes, our financial institutions and for the rising cost of oil and commodities. You better get used to it, withing 5 years it will cost you north of $10 a gallon of gas. Sorry, folks, thats reality. I don't sugarcoat, that's not what I get paid for. I tell it like I see it. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but oil isn't going to pull back meaningfully for a long while. It can pull back to retest $100 at some point MAYBE, but would you rather own oil futures, or the US Dollar? Hmmmm. Give me the oil, you can keep the dollar!
See ya on the other side, FOMC meeting tomorrow is a non-event, though we should be able to trade it as always and ROCK THE MARKETS with Ka-chingos!
RULE!
Waxie
OK, so the market did exactly what the Window Dressing trend dicates it should do the last week of a quarter - the HOT got HOTTER and the COLD got COLDER!
This is setting up VERY NICELY for our next big winner(s)! And, of course our current TOP PICKS and OPTION PLAYS are simply DELIROUSLY ROCKING!
ENER, GDP, ICO, etc, etc. How sick are they? WOWSA!
Plus, our puts on WFMI and the financials (LM) are delicious and gonna get more so! There is NO BOTTOM to this group until...we say so! :)
This weekend I saw a movie that I swear was commissioned by the MTA or YOUR local public transit authority. What movie? THE HAPPENING!
I actually didn't think it was as dreadful as most critics. It was predictable and fairly inocuous, but harmless. What it really is is a PSA (Public service announcement) for public transportation. STAY AWAY FROM THE GRASS! Yes, stay away from the grass and go under ground...and take the subway!
Or bus, I guess.
Anyhow, this market is UGLY. I mean its REALLY ugly. Did I say it was really ugly? It's ugly. I think MER is almost a sure thing to go under $30 into earnings. Who in their right mind is going to buy MER here now? LEH continues its descent to under $10 or worse final destination = zero and in Bear Stearns fiery pit of hell. (no offense to anyone).
I just do not see these things getting any significant bounce that can last until a bunch of them fail. I have a ton on my list of banks that are going to go UNDER. SOV, WM, FED, COF all potentially can fail in my opinion. There are a lot more that could. C has SERIOUS issues, but the Fed would probably bail them out as that would sink the entire country potentially. This whole sector is SHOT and you need to avoid it at ANY cost, other than maybe for a trade when the time is right.
Stick with the hot this week and you should be fine.It's kinda nice trading cause you can short the financials as a hedge against the ENER and GDP's of the world that we like and get winners BOTH ways! That's the way, ah huh, ah huh, we like it, ah huh ah huh!
Oil went higher after the Saudi meeting. Duhhhhhh. Dudes and dudesses, does anyone think that these countries are concerned about lowering the price of oil? Hehe, that's funny. I mean, that's like saying that you want to give money away. Right now these countries rule the world. We can pretend we do, or Europe, but it's an illusion. If we did we'd be able to tell these countries to lower the price and open the valves up full throttle.
The biggest problem, and I have said it again and again, is that there was no one preparing for what really was inevitable. That's not hindsight, oil has risen precipitously for many many years. Yes, its risen a lot faster the last 2 years, but it's risen steadily over the years. Why didn't anyone do anything? Again, this is our leaders fault. It's very disturbing to me that we continue to do things AFTER the fact, not before. In July's Trend Profit Report newsletter (email me if you want to subscribe - waxie@trendfund.com). I rant in depth about this issue. I'll publish the article here on the blog in the next few days for ya if ya want, but I just don't get it. NONE of this should be a surprise and yet here we are. And now they want to do things? It's going to take a MINIMUM of 10 years to really make headway. I've believed in the peak oil theory for years. I think we can only produce so much and that until there is a movement to stop certain luxury practices, forget it. We need to stop the things we've been doing, and do something different! Ever hear the saying - "If you do the same things, you get the same results." Or, "Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results". Either one is apropo. And, either one leads us to a very bad ending to our economic woes, our financial institutions and for the rising cost of oil and commodities. You better get used to it, withing 5 years it will cost you north of $10 a gallon of gas. Sorry, folks, thats reality. I don't sugarcoat, that's not what I get paid for. I tell it like I see it. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but oil isn't going to pull back meaningfully for a long while. It can pull back to retest $100 at some point MAYBE, but would you rather own oil futures, or the US Dollar? Hmmmm. Give me the oil, you can keep the dollar!
See ya on the other side, FOMC meeting tomorrow is a non-event, though we should be able to trade it as always and ROCK THE MARKETS with Ka-chingos!
RULE!
Waxie
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Are you feeling LUCKY, my friend?
This is the time to buckle up and get ready for a BIG show! This coming week is the last week (it ends June 30th actually) of the 2nd quarter. WINDOW DRESSING is one of the best and most consistent trends we have tracked over the last 15 or so years. Our lists have worked something like 21 out of the last 24 quarters. No reason to think this quarter will be a bummer, but ya never know!
We just wrapped up another seminar, was great to meet a bunch of hard working, guns a blazing traders and soon to be traders! Thanks for all who attended! We're getting an office set up shortly so that we have a tad more control over internet connections and we can host them more often. It's always phenomenal to meet people who have similar interests, but from literally around the world. Anntoinette came all the way from France, and we had a few people from other parts of the world. Downright amazing that a dude like me who used to live off of food in a garbage bin could attract people globally! VEry cool life is, indeed!
We're rolling FOREX out in the next two weeks, I know a TON of you guys have been patiently waiting, but we're finally at the precipice and ready to ROCK the currency markets! I had to finish my latest book for St.Martin's PRess (Rule your Freakin' Retirement) due out early 2009 so that's taken a ton of time to get it right (book is AWESOME, if I may say so myself!) and had my film premier (Crazy for Love) which is now at everyone's local Blockbuster. It's been a very busy few months.
I have a SUPER DUPER trade upcoming, folks. I suggest you all get on board the Waxie Express or you might miss what could be the trade of the year. Ya never know, but I think it's gonna be a doosey in the next 2 to 3 weeks. If you have ever thought of signing up for our Ninja or Black Belt services (www.trendfund.com) I suggest you do so NOW cause while there's no guarantees, I have a lot of conviction about a call I'm about to make and if I'm right its gonna lead to some HUGE HUGE HUGE gains in a very short time frame.
In the meantime, this week we have two major milestones that will dictate action in several sectors;
MON earnings
RIMM earnings
Both come on the 25th I believe. And, both will have huge implications on TECH and AGs and the overall market. We also are now about to test KEY markers in the market. Either we will hold the March lows on the DOW and S & P or we will crash and burn to the 10,000s in a jiff very shortly. We shall see, but these two earnings reports and the markets reaction to them is going to be KEY to which way we shake out. What's interesting is the divergence we have up here. The tech heavy Nasdaq is really showing crazy relative strength. Even though the Nasdaq has taken a beating with the DOW it's still well above (about 8%) the March lows, while the DOW is barely so. There is this perception that tech is somewhat immune to the economic meltdown we're having (yes, it is a meltdown folks, let's not sugar coat it). I don't think that will last. My targets on the ER (Russell) are still longer term in the 300s, and a retest of the 2003 Nasdaq lows (1100 - 1200s), which is 50% lower from here. But, of course, we shall see what we shall see and as always, when I'm bearish I really do hope I'm wrong for a lot of reasons!
Also this week we have another FOMC meeting. While the meeting is somewhat of a non-event, it'll be tradeable as always. The Fed isn't going to cut anymore and should hint (at least) at some raising later this year, if not sooner. The problem is, the Fed is now caught in a very uncomfortable position. They have to worry about rapidly rising inflation (hyper soon unfortunately) and the fact that consumers can't borrow due to tighter restrictions due to the housing and credit woes. I've been saying this has created an economic "perfect storm" potential and real disaster threat. The Fed has played it both ways and as we said as teenagers when you play it both ways, you usually LOSE both ways and forfeit in ALL!
Let's hope I'm wrong, but I'm usually not, dudes and dudesses. ANY rally here is to be sold into. We may hold the March lows for now, but very small shot we hold it for very long. We'll see soon enough!
And, fyi, for all my doom and gloom, I'm about to make a BULLISH call, so get your butt signed up so you can learn to EARN and learn how to protect yourself from any downturns AND profit from it ALL!
RULE!
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
www.trendfund.com
We just wrapped up another seminar, was great to meet a bunch of hard working, guns a blazing traders and soon to be traders! Thanks for all who attended! We're getting an office set up shortly so that we have a tad more control over internet connections and we can host them more often. It's always phenomenal to meet people who have similar interests, but from literally around the world. Anntoinette came all the way from France, and we had a few people from other parts of the world. Downright amazing that a dude like me who used to live off of food in a garbage bin could attract people globally! VEry cool life is, indeed!
We're rolling FOREX out in the next two weeks, I know a TON of you guys have been patiently waiting, but we're finally at the precipice and ready to ROCK the currency markets! I had to finish my latest book for St.Martin's PRess (Rule your Freakin' Retirement) due out early 2009 so that's taken a ton of time to get it right (book is AWESOME, if I may say so myself!) and had my film premier (Crazy for Love) which is now at everyone's local Blockbuster. It's been a very busy few months.
I have a SUPER DUPER trade upcoming, folks. I suggest you all get on board the Waxie Express or you might miss what could be the trade of the year. Ya never know, but I think it's gonna be a doosey in the next 2 to 3 weeks. If you have ever thought of signing up for our Ninja or Black Belt services (www.trendfund.com) I suggest you do so NOW cause while there's no guarantees, I have a lot of conviction about a call I'm about to make and if I'm right its gonna lead to some HUGE HUGE HUGE gains in a very short time frame.
In the meantime, this week we have two major milestones that will dictate action in several sectors;
MON earnings
RIMM earnings
Both come on the 25th I believe. And, both will have huge implications on TECH and AGs and the overall market. We also are now about to test KEY markers in the market. Either we will hold the March lows on the DOW and S & P or we will crash and burn to the 10,000s in a jiff very shortly. We shall see, but these two earnings reports and the markets reaction to them is going to be KEY to which way we shake out. What's interesting is the divergence we have up here. The tech heavy Nasdaq is really showing crazy relative strength. Even though the Nasdaq has taken a beating with the DOW it's still well above (about 8%) the March lows, while the DOW is barely so. There is this perception that tech is somewhat immune to the economic meltdown we're having (yes, it is a meltdown folks, let's not sugar coat it). I don't think that will last. My targets on the ER (Russell) are still longer term in the 300s, and a retest of the 2003 Nasdaq lows (1100 - 1200s), which is 50% lower from here. But, of course, we shall see what we shall see and as always, when I'm bearish I really do hope I'm wrong for a lot of reasons!
Also this week we have another FOMC meeting. While the meeting is somewhat of a non-event, it'll be tradeable as always. The Fed isn't going to cut anymore and should hint (at least) at some raising later this year, if not sooner. The problem is, the Fed is now caught in a very uncomfortable position. They have to worry about rapidly rising inflation (hyper soon unfortunately) and the fact that consumers can't borrow due to tighter restrictions due to the housing and credit woes. I've been saying this has created an economic "perfect storm" potential and real disaster threat. The Fed has played it both ways and as we said as teenagers when you play it both ways, you usually LOSE both ways and forfeit in ALL!
Let's hope I'm wrong, but I'm usually not, dudes and dudesses. ANY rally here is to be sold into. We may hold the March lows for now, but very small shot we hold it for very long. We'll see soon enough!
And, fyi, for all my doom and gloom, I'm about to make a BULLISH call, so get your butt signed up so you can learn to EARN and learn how to protect yourself from any downturns AND profit from it ALL!
RULE!
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
www.trendfund.com
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Options Expiration
Beat tonight so will keep it brief. Market got a chincy bounce after C announced more bad reality check news for banks. There are going to be some failures shortly in regional banks, its inevitable. Friday is the day to watch Pin Action on the markets in terms of strike prices for options expiration. Thursday we used that to play a Bull Spread on RIMM that netted 20% intraday. We'll be making more of these types of calls moving forward when applicable. I think we'll chop around today(Friday) and next week is going to be VERY key. RIMM reports earnings and that report will dicate the action in AAPL, GOOG and other momentum tech stocks.
Let's see what shakes out Friday. The good thing about option expiration is that it usually leaves us mostly in cash, so we start fresh Monday!!! See ya there!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Let's see what shakes out Friday. The good thing about option expiration is that it usually leaves us mostly in cash, so we start fresh Monday!!! See ya there!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
We are DONE...
This blog post is gonna act as my warning to investors. I'll preface this by saying that I am not always correct. Having said that, most of my longer term market predictions have been dead on.
I am warning all investors to GET OUT of this stock market before it's too late!
Yes, I am serious. We are going to be under 10,000 and potentially a LOT lower in the next few months. Suffice to say I hope I'm wrong, but I do not think I will be. In all my years trading I have never seen so many options that are heavily traded on the financials be RIGHT. There is going to be some UGLY stuff coming down the pike, in my opinion, and no sector is going to be spared. This market feels so heavy its being held up by the skin of its finger nails.
Again, I could be wrong, and if so you can jump on me later and say I suck, that's cool, but I am very confident in this call. This market is going to get slammed with some very very bad news and it's going to get SLAMMED. And, the notion that the AGs or Tech or Solar stocks are safe havens is a JOKE. Is it the end of the world? Nope. But for most investors it doesn't have to be the end of the world for them to get creamed and suffer horribly. Do not be one of those people. The "big" event has not happened yet, but it will over the coming months and if you are an investor here you are going to get SMOKED.
Can I be any clearer? GET OUT and STAY OUT until there is blood in the streets. You've been warned!
So, what can you do? Buy some index puts to hedge your long side positions, or sell calls against your positions, or simply short the financials and some techs. We did a class and I gave some top picks not long ago. You can buy SKF to play the financials short with an ETF, and you can buy TWM to play the Russell short (tech). I would buy the Sept. or Oct. calls on those two ETFs if you agree with this idea. Keep in mind that usually things don't go in a straight line and week after next we may get a nice bounce in the financials, but I doubt it lasts more than a week before turning down again.
We shall see, but you have, indeed, been warned!
TRADE 'EM, don't own 'em! And, if you are into owning this market, please set stops to prevent a massive meltdown. This market feels a LOT heavier than even 2000 to 2003. That's how bad this market feels right now. Contrarian? Nah, I really doubt it. We shall see soon enough, market closed right near 12,000 on DOW as I said we might this week. It'll be interesting to see what they do the rest of the week. If we can't hold 12,000 then the March lows are going to be tested rather quickly!
Again, hope I'm wrong, it doesn't help our biz for the market to die that hard, but I have to call it as I see it and thats how I see it pretty freakin' strongly!
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
I am warning all investors to GET OUT of this stock market before it's too late!
Yes, I am serious. We are going to be under 10,000 and potentially a LOT lower in the next few months. Suffice to say I hope I'm wrong, but I do not think I will be. In all my years trading I have never seen so many options that are heavily traded on the financials be RIGHT. There is going to be some UGLY stuff coming down the pike, in my opinion, and no sector is going to be spared. This market feels so heavy its being held up by the skin of its finger nails.
Again, I could be wrong, and if so you can jump on me later and say I suck, that's cool, but I am very confident in this call. This market is going to get slammed with some very very bad news and it's going to get SLAMMED. And, the notion that the AGs or Tech or Solar stocks are safe havens is a JOKE. Is it the end of the world? Nope. But for most investors it doesn't have to be the end of the world for them to get creamed and suffer horribly. Do not be one of those people. The "big" event has not happened yet, but it will over the coming months and if you are an investor here you are going to get SMOKED.
Can I be any clearer? GET OUT and STAY OUT until there is blood in the streets. You've been warned!
So, what can you do? Buy some index puts to hedge your long side positions, or sell calls against your positions, or simply short the financials and some techs. We did a class and I gave some top picks not long ago. You can buy SKF to play the financials short with an ETF, and you can buy TWM to play the Russell short (tech). I would buy the Sept. or Oct. calls on those two ETFs if you agree with this idea. Keep in mind that usually things don't go in a straight line and week after next we may get a nice bounce in the financials, but I doubt it lasts more than a week before turning down again.
We shall see, but you have, indeed, been warned!
TRADE 'EM, don't own 'em! And, if you are into owning this market, please set stops to prevent a massive meltdown. This market feels a LOT heavier than even 2000 to 2003. That's how bad this market feels right now. Contrarian? Nah, I really doubt it. We shall see soon enough, market closed right near 12,000 on DOW as I said we might this week. It'll be interesting to see what they do the rest of the week. If we can't hold 12,000 then the March lows are going to be tested rather quickly!
Again, hope I'm wrong, it doesn't help our biz for the market to die that hard, but I have to call it as I see it and thats how I see it pretty freakin' strongly!
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
WORD WORLD...
For all you parents of your children, the BEST show on TV for kids is WORD WORLD.
If you know the show, you know that to be true, if you don't, go here to check it out;
www.wordworld.com
A HUGE shout out to my main man Don who started with a dream and some VC money from yours truly and has turned it into a BEAST! We just won an EMMY yesterday! Wowsa!
Pretty freakin' amazing what a dream, a good idea, some seed money and a lot of hard work will do! People create their own miracles, just as we try to help people create their's!
Word World is doing a raise right now, if anyone is accredited and interested in seeing a PPM, subject to atty approval, send me an email; waxie@trendfund.com it's a wonderful show and company and with Planet Penguin selling to Disney for over $350 MIL, ya never know!
*If you have any interest, we may be starting a small VC fund for clients as well, so email any interest on that as well.
I have known Don since we were kids and we both always thought we'd hit a couple home runs, it's nice to see that we still have a little bit of magic between us!
Most importantly, the show is educational. My girls love it, so make sure you tune in, it's on PBS nation wide!
RULE the words, baby, rule the words!
Michael "Waxie"
If you know the show, you know that to be true, if you don't, go here to check it out;
www.wordworld.com
A HUGE shout out to my main man Don who started with a dream and some VC money from yours truly and has turned it into a BEAST! We just won an EMMY yesterday! Wowsa!
Pretty freakin' amazing what a dream, a good idea, some seed money and a lot of hard work will do! People create their own miracles, just as we try to help people create their's!
Word World is doing a raise right now, if anyone is accredited and interested in seeing a PPM, subject to atty approval, send me an email; waxie@trendfund.com it's a wonderful show and company and with Planet Penguin selling to Disney for over $350 MIL, ya never know!
*If you have any interest, we may be starting a small VC fund for clients as well, so email any interest on that as well.
I have known Don since we were kids and we both always thought we'd hit a couple home runs, it's nice to see that we still have a little bit of magic between us!
Most importantly, the show is educational. My girls love it, so make sure you tune in, it's on PBS nation wide!
RULE the words, baby, rule the words!
Michael "Waxie"
Tuesday Tuesday...
Is that a song? Nah, don't think so! The market did what we thought it might and sold the news on GS. After a pretty large gap up by GS, it finished the day WELL into the red, despite upgrades all around. AGs continue their parabolic run to new heights and the solars would have crushed it had there not been late day news that dragged down the sector. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out tomorrow with the solars, they should set up for a very nice trade. I'd watch 10 am rule for entries either way. Remember, Friday is Options Expiration and that means starting Wed. the "in" crowd starts positioning themselves to pin stocks to strike prices. I've talked about this quite a few times and it remains one of the best trading ideas out there. It's one reason I love Options Expiration week.
Did you notice our GDP today? Thing is a BEAST and I suspect $100s isn't far around the corner. ANY pullback is buyable on it and I do mean ANY. ENER same drill, though the solar news may impact it, so be careful with it. Also, next week is 2nd quarter Window Dressing and our clients should get a heads up (sorry, can't post them here, but join!) shortly with some ideas for next week!
In the meantime, the seminar is rocking and despite some internet issues people are enjoying the experience. Today we had a couple losers early and then made up for it with BIDU short for about $6 overall. Total chop and slop market and for investors it remains = AGs and Solars and Energy or BUST!
See ya on the other side,
Michael "WAXIE" Parness
*The markets fade early Wed. should be a good one baring news. I think if we gap up in particular it'll make a nice short. We'll see soon enough! FOR A TRADE, fyi!
Did you notice our GDP today? Thing is a BEAST and I suspect $100s isn't far around the corner. ANY pullback is buyable on it and I do mean ANY. ENER same drill, though the solar news may impact it, so be careful with it. Also, next week is 2nd quarter Window Dressing and our clients should get a heads up (sorry, can't post them here, but join!) shortly with some ideas for next week!
In the meantime, the seminar is rocking and despite some internet issues people are enjoying the experience. Today we had a couple losers early and then made up for it with BIDU short for about $6 overall. Total chop and slop market and for investors it remains = AGs and Solars and Energy or BUST!
See ya on the other side,
Michael "WAXIE" Parness
*The markets fade early Wed. should be a good one baring news. I think if we gap up in particular it'll make a nice short. We'll see soon enough! FOR A TRADE, fyi!
Monday, June 16, 2008
MONDAY MONDAY...
Well, market mixed it up Monday, with the tech heavy Nasdaq powering further ahead, and the DOW floundering a bit. The AGs once again led us higher, and the solar sector (our ENER, mentioned here AGAIN AND AGAIN his nearly $80!), and some big time techs like AAPL, RIMM, and BIDU powered ahead. The banks tried to get a big bounce, but it got sidelined and they got a small reprieve. All eyes are on GS Tuesday pre-market. I think good shot we get a pullin Tuesday. I ALMOST bought some puts at the close today, but would rather see what we do post GS. GS could very well beat and go much higher, which would send the banks and brokers higher. I will say that I do think the banks are going to get a bigger bounce shortly, maybe even Tuesday. Usually, as I mentioned here last week, heavily shorted and beaten down stocks get at least 2 or 3 days rally when they start to rally. The 1st day is usually the weakest, so if that follows through then watch that index for some more upside. In the meantime, the 1st day of the seminar was a SMASHING success as everyone but a couple said they made money and I am thinking tomorrow we'll knock 'em dead! We had V, POT, TITN all winners and all SWEET!
Missed a couple of trades I should have had, but hey, ya can't be perfect! Our ICO did nicely and hit our 1st target of $12.50 (amazing how good targets at resistence are!). GDP continued to plow higher as well.
I'm beat, so I'll keep it brief, if you haven't signed up for the chatroom, I suggest you do, as the summer winds through this market is going to have a TON of volatility and we are going to get some NASTY downturns, you may need all the help ya can get! We're here, baby, we're here - to help!
FYI - we have clients from all over the WORLD at the seminar! It's amazing to me, but every seminar we get people from around the world, literally! Our friend is here from France! Pretty freakin' cool if ya ask me! RULE!
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
waxie@trendfund.com
Missed a couple of trades I should have had, but hey, ya can't be perfect! Our ICO did nicely and hit our 1st target of $12.50 (amazing how good targets at resistence are!). GDP continued to plow higher as well.
I'm beat, so I'll keep it brief, if you haven't signed up for the chatroom, I suggest you do, as the summer winds through this market is going to have a TON of volatility and we are going to get some NASTY downturns, you may need all the help ya can get! We're here, baby, we're here - to help!
FYI - we have clients from all over the WORLD at the seminar! It's amazing to me, but every seminar we get people from around the world, literally! Our friend is here from France! Pretty freakin' cool if ya ask me! RULE!
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
waxie@trendfund.com
Sunday, June 15, 2008
The week ahead...
Market had a nice solid rally Friday. As I posted here Thursday, I though the brokers may have seen a near term "bottom" depending on news that comes out from GS Tuesday.
There's a trend I've found to be very profitable over the years. Usually a sector that is heavily shorted and hated will get at least 2 days and often 3 or 4 rally wise. Shorts need to cover and in a beaten down sector it usually takes more than 1 day to cover, and also panic starts to set in and the stocks get a nice bump. For LEH the CEO and CFO stepping down was the news that bottomed it near term. Do I think it'll last? NO SHOT IN HELL. But, so what? As a trader you just need it to last as long as you're in it.
Happy Father's DAY to all who qualify! Can't wait to give my baby girls a BIGGGG hug!
And, get one from them!
In the meantime, I'm preparing to meet a bunch of you in NJ at our seminar! I always enjoy meeting clients who are excited about learning how to RULE THE FREAKIN' MARKETS!
This time is no different, Tiny, myself and Scott are all geared up! Hopefully we rule the market for the week. We shall see what we shall see!
Watch GS Tuesday, LEH monday is a non event more than likely given what happened last week. The stock might get a further bump and if GS doesn't say anything horrible GS might try for $200 again. I think its nuts and it'll move to $120s eventually (or lower) but the market doesn't move in one direction, it trades up and down and up and down and down and up, and...you get my drift.
Oh, I will be posting a link next week for you all to buy my movie, Crazy for Love. It's also now available for rent at Blockbusters around the country. Kinda cool. Give it a watch and let me know what you think...if you like it!
See ya on the other side...
Waxie
*I have a call on the banks shortly. Watch for C or a couple of the big guys to say they are cutting their dividends. I think THAT will be a tradeable bottom on a sell the rumor, buy the news TREND! I think it'll be a VERY nice trade actually, so keep an eye out for that news to break. When it does you might want to think about shorting the SKF or buying the banking index or the stocks that have that news. Obviously use a stop if you choose to take that trade. We shall see, what we shall see!
HAPPY FATHER'S DAY!!!
RULE
There's a trend I've found to be very profitable over the years. Usually a sector that is heavily shorted and hated will get at least 2 days and often 3 or 4 rally wise. Shorts need to cover and in a beaten down sector it usually takes more than 1 day to cover, and also panic starts to set in and the stocks get a nice bump. For LEH the CEO and CFO stepping down was the news that bottomed it near term. Do I think it'll last? NO SHOT IN HELL. But, so what? As a trader you just need it to last as long as you're in it.
Happy Father's DAY to all who qualify! Can't wait to give my baby girls a BIGGGG hug!
And, get one from them!
In the meantime, I'm preparing to meet a bunch of you in NJ at our seminar! I always enjoy meeting clients who are excited about learning how to RULE THE FREAKIN' MARKETS!
This time is no different, Tiny, myself and Scott are all geared up! Hopefully we rule the market for the week. We shall see what we shall see!
Watch GS Tuesday, LEH monday is a non event more than likely given what happened last week. The stock might get a further bump and if GS doesn't say anything horrible GS might try for $200 again. I think its nuts and it'll move to $120s eventually (or lower) but the market doesn't move in one direction, it trades up and down and up and down and down and up, and...you get my drift.
Oh, I will be posting a link next week for you all to buy my movie, Crazy for Love. It's also now available for rent at Blockbusters around the country. Kinda cool. Give it a watch and let me know what you think...if you like it!
See ya on the other side...
Waxie
*I have a call on the banks shortly. Watch for C or a couple of the big guys to say they are cutting their dividends. I think THAT will be a tradeable bottom on a sell the rumor, buy the news TREND! I think it'll be a VERY nice trade actually, so keep an eye out for that news to break. When it does you might want to think about shorting the SKF or buying the banking index or the stocks that have that news. Obviously use a stop if you choose to take that trade. We shall see, what we shall see!
HAPPY FATHER'S DAY!!!
RULE
Thursday, June 12, 2008
MARKET MADNESS...
So the market today went up, then up more, and then DOWNNNNN and then UP again!
Volatility is here to stay, and thank goodness! TECH is starting to bust down a bit, and I think we're going to start putting on some put positions for a short term trade. If you look at the action in AAPL today you'll see a perfect example of what happens when momentum wanes on stocks that went parabolic. AAPL was $120s in march, it went all the way up to nearly $200. That's a ridiculous move. You see if it a ton of these stocks.
We're in for a period where we will start to get one step forward, two back. We'll see what happens but either this quarter or next we should see some MAJOR misses in tech. The notion that tech is safe in this economy is one of the biggest fables there is. That has NEVER been the case, quite the opposite. The recession and market tankage from 2000 to 2003 saw the Nasdaq (tech laden) index drop from 5200 to 1100s. Tech doesn't thrive in this environment and even though you have the AAPLs of the world still selling tons of I-PODs and I-Phones, that doesn't mean that the stock #1 doesn't already have it priced in (AAPL's P/E is pretty pricey) and also businesses "mature", they get to the point where growth has to slow or at least level off.
Speaking of which, I think the AGs are nearly at a short term top. I would not be surprised to see POT, MOS, etc. have decent sized pullbacks. Nothing goes straight up forever. They won't drop dead, their still have tremendous earnings growth, but they could get 10% pullins, we'll see soon enough. Next week is HUGE, GS earnings are gonna move this market. Tomorrow? Well, I would suspect some sideways choppy action baring any real news. Lastly, how bad does Jerry Yang and YHOO look now? MSFT offered them over $33 a share and they said no in this market! That's just SICK! Now look, MSFT walks away (don't believe it in the end) and YHOO stock is now $23. How the hell do you explain that to shareholders? Yes, its smart we walked away from MSFT! So what the stock has dropped 40% below the offering price! Who cares? I'll tell you what, if MSFT is serious, YHOO shares will eventually drop below $10. Their business is in bad shape, there's simply no reason for anyone to own that stock unless you take into acct the MSFT angle. You see? Even smart guys get slammed sometimes! All the Ichann's of the world took stakes in YHOO thinking they could force a sale to MSFT. MSFT was smart, they walked away. This looks a lot like BEAS and ORCL when ORCL walked away and then a few months later sucked them up in a buyout because BEAS pulled back a bit. Think about it, if you're MSFT you can now sit back and watch YHOO squirm. IF MSFT then comes back and says, ok dudes, we'll take you, but here's our final offer. I mean, what is YHOO gonna do? There is no way they can make an arguement that they are worth more than the offer. My GUESS is that MSFT comes back at the same price on the dot and says take it or leave it and YHOO jumps and toasts to everyone's good fortune. YHOO making a deal with GOOG is their way of trying to force MSFT into a deal. The problem for all these companies is, they are stuck. MSFT business can't possibly go anywhere unless they can cut into GOOG's dominance and they clearly can't do it alone. I'm not even sure YHOO helps them. And, the BIGGER problem, in my opinion is that online ad market will contract shortly with the recession, it has to. Bulls like to point out that people still have to buy things, and that's true. But, its the same as any other market, if people are buying LESS, or simply just not buying more, then the cost of the ads has to go DOWN. As always lately, I hope I am wrong! Hope springs eternal, but reality is sinking in! As always, yours in heart, mind and spirit. Waxie. P.S. Next week's NJ seminar has a very nice turnout. If you are on the fence, we added Scott to the mix and he will be at the seminar doing individual coaching with all attendees. This is the single best way for you guys to jumpstart what could be a real change of lifestyle in a job environment that ain't improving for a long while more than likely. email me at - waxie@trendfund.com if you have any interest at all, we look forward to meeting you all there in NJ next week! RULE!
Volatility is here to stay, and thank goodness! TECH is starting to bust down a bit, and I think we're going to start putting on some put positions for a short term trade. If you look at the action in AAPL today you'll see a perfect example of what happens when momentum wanes on stocks that went parabolic. AAPL was $120s in march, it went all the way up to nearly $200. That's a ridiculous move. You see if it a ton of these stocks.
We're in for a period where we will start to get one step forward, two back. We'll see what happens but either this quarter or next we should see some MAJOR misses in tech. The notion that tech is safe in this economy is one of the biggest fables there is. That has NEVER been the case, quite the opposite. The recession and market tankage from 2000 to 2003 saw the Nasdaq (tech laden) index drop from 5200 to 1100s. Tech doesn't thrive in this environment and even though you have the AAPLs of the world still selling tons of I-PODs and I-Phones, that doesn't mean that the stock #1 doesn't already have it priced in (AAPL's P/E is pretty pricey) and also businesses "mature", they get to the point where growth has to slow or at least level off.
Speaking of which, I think the AGs are nearly at a short term top. I would not be surprised to see POT, MOS, etc. have decent sized pullbacks. Nothing goes straight up forever. They won't drop dead, their still have tremendous earnings growth, but they could get 10% pullins, we'll see soon enough. Next week is HUGE, GS earnings are gonna move this market. Tomorrow? Well, I would suspect some sideways choppy action baring any real news. Lastly, how bad does Jerry Yang and YHOO look now? MSFT offered them over $33 a share and they said no in this market! That's just SICK! Now look, MSFT walks away (don't believe it in the end) and YHOO stock is now $23. How the hell do you explain that to shareholders? Yes, its smart we walked away from MSFT! So what the stock has dropped 40% below the offering price! Who cares? I'll tell you what, if MSFT is serious, YHOO shares will eventually drop below $10. Their business is in bad shape, there's simply no reason for anyone to own that stock unless you take into acct the MSFT angle. You see? Even smart guys get slammed sometimes! All the Ichann's of the world took stakes in YHOO thinking they could force a sale to MSFT. MSFT was smart, they walked away. This looks a lot like BEAS and ORCL when ORCL walked away and then a few months later sucked them up in a buyout because BEAS pulled back a bit. Think about it, if you're MSFT you can now sit back and watch YHOO squirm. IF MSFT then comes back and says, ok dudes, we'll take you, but here's our final offer. I mean, what is YHOO gonna do? There is no way they can make an arguement that they are worth more than the offer. My GUESS is that MSFT comes back at the same price on the dot and says take it or leave it and YHOO jumps and toasts to everyone's good fortune. YHOO making a deal with GOOG is their way of trying to force MSFT into a deal. The problem for all these companies is, they are stuck. MSFT business can't possibly go anywhere unless they can cut into GOOG's dominance and they clearly can't do it alone. I'm not even sure YHOO helps them. And, the BIGGER problem, in my opinion is that online ad market will contract shortly with the recession, it has to. Bulls like to point out that people still have to buy things, and that's true. But, its the same as any other market, if people are buying LESS, or simply just not buying more, then the cost of the ads has to go DOWN. As always lately, I hope I am wrong! Hope springs eternal, but reality is sinking in! As always, yours in heart, mind and spirit. Waxie. P.S. Next week's NJ seminar has a very nice turnout. If you are on the fence, we added Scott to the mix and he will be at the seminar doing individual coaching with all attendees. This is the single best way for you guys to jumpstart what could be a real change of lifestyle in a job environment that ain't improving for a long while more than likely. email me at - waxie@trendfund.com if you have any interest at all, we look forward to meeting you all there in NJ next week! RULE!
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
The brokers breaking down and I'm sitting in a storm...
Man, I tell ya, living on the 45th floor sometimes sucks. When your windows are shakin' and your earth is quaking, its not pretty. And that brings me to the market, which is really looking dismal. They tried to rally us a lot today and they failed a lot. Just a very sloppy choppy day, which are the hardest to trade. I have to say, its a good thing we stopped out of CORN and actually made money on that trade if you followed the suggestions. That's why ya use stops! Commodities are just busting out every day here. Thing is, they will correct, but I'm the first to tell ya that its pretty legit. FOOD is necessary. OIL is necessary (or a necessary evil). Metals are necessary. Stocks? They ain't necessary, sorry. You need commodities to LIVE. The DOW could go t zero, and it won't kill anyone in and of itself. People may jump out windows, which would obviously suck, but no one can be killed by a falling market. And, that my friends is the #1 reason why if you are going to trade you need to keep your eyes open and your head in the game! Thing is, at some pt commodities will break from the stocks. See, stocks can go down even if the commodity it deals in goes up. It doesn't work the other way around. We have a ton of good stuff going on and about to happen. We're rolling out some very cool initiatives, including our second Small Cap Monster newsletter July 1st, and Forex and new software. Stay tuned and if you haven't signed up for the NJ Live week long seminar with the partial Money Back Guarantee if the trades we call don't make money, you are gonna regret it! This is the time you NEED TO LEARN TO EARN! Don't sit back and think you'll do it later, it may be too late later!
Email me at - waxie@trendfund.com if you want some more info on the seminar, there is still time but since it starts SUNDAY (yes, this Sunday!) you need to get in the game NOW!
See ya there, and see ya on the other side. Ya see LEH? CRACKED CITY. When its under $15 let me know, thats where I think its headed pretty easily. In the meantime, we should get a more decisive move Wednesday. We look lower here, but I guess something could bounce us. Probably a squeeze, but we'll see soon enough. Hopefully we get some bounces, would suck if we just went straight DOWNNNNNNNN! Unless you're short like us! RULE! Michael "WAXIE" Parness
Email me at - waxie@trendfund.com if you want some more info on the seminar, there is still time but since it starts SUNDAY (yes, this Sunday!) you need to get in the game NOW!
See ya there, and see ya on the other side. Ya see LEH? CRACKED CITY. When its under $15 let me know, thats where I think its headed pretty easily. In the meantime, we should get a more decisive move Wednesday. We look lower here, but I guess something could bounce us. Probably a squeeze, but we'll see soon enough. Hopefully we get some bounces, would suck if we just went straight DOWNNNNNNNN! Unless you're short like us! RULE! Michael "WAXIE" Parness
Monday, June 09, 2008
Did anyone tell the Broker the one about the Bond?
The DOW finished the day GREEN. The Nasdaq fairly flat. AAPL was down $4s after a sell the news unveiling of the new I-Phone. I took an online survey, I really am not so interested in the I-Phone. Too many I's, it seems rather narcissistic, ya know?
As far as the rest of the market, well the AGS racked up huge gains again - POT, AGU, BG, etc. all had monster sized gains BUT the financials once again just bit the dust in a BIG BIG BIG way!
You gotta believe that the news coming is only gonna get worse and that eventually in the not too distant future the stuff holding up now is gonna get hit. If you look at oil today you see the danger in being the last one holding the bag. I'm not calling a top on Oil, it looks like $150 is a done deal at some point (I did call that not so long ago), but the volatility in the commodities market will reign supreme as long as the dollar remains weak-butted and falling into a bottomless pit!
On another note, I saw one of the worst films of all-time. The new Indiana Jones film was just absolutely absurdly atrocious. I kinda didn't want to see it, but I got caught in the hot NYC humidity yesterday afternoon and they wanted to see it, and so...oy vey, it was HORRID. I just don't get how anyone could give that a good review.
OK, 1st off, Harrison Ford looks closer to a wheel chair then he does to kicking big dudes butts. And, not just like 50, he musta knocked out like 5000 bad Russians (I don't think the Kremlin really cares much for this movie:)). Then, that kid Shia, I mean, I've liked him in other things, but he's simply not a tough kid. I think I could take the dude with one hand tied behind my back, a foot up my butt and a finger in my freakin' nose. How can they cast him as a tough? Very poor choice.
And, I must be dumb, seriously, because I just didn't get the whole thing with the plastic man faces. I think Speilberg had an ET flashback and decided he was going to combine movies or subliminally get some more sales out of back ordered DVDs!
OK, then I saw (this was my movie weekend) Sandler's movie, Zohan. OK, frankly, it was stupid funny. Sometimes hilariously so. And, overall it was ok. Having said that, it really got to be monotonous and one note. Very much so. It was just downright stupid in places. Well, hell, I just said it was stupid funny, so it got to be stupid stupid in some places. BUT, still heads HEADS above IJ. I was rooting for the bad guys to Kill Indie and the tough kid. That woulda made the movie. I was going to turn communist if it didn't end, I was giving it 10 minutes and then I was taking out my red card! :)
OK, back to the market, I just needed to get that off my hairy chest. OK, so here goes, market is going LOWER. We may bounce here and there but if you are investing you are doing so at your own peril. I just do not see how we are going to get anything really going rally wise. I guess if there is some good news on the financials somehow then we'd get a short term squeeze, but other than that, forgetaboutit.
In the meantime, let's look at Tuesday as more than likely a good trading day. I think the 1st move off the open is gonna be a doosey either way. Meaning if we gap up big and we start to roll over, watch for a trend down day. If we gap down I would look for us to perhaps get a nice reversal to the upside (it is turnaround Tuesday afterall!).
Oh, one more thing, as a guy, I am sure (quite) that both IJ and Zohan were better than Sex and the City! Which, fyi, is my marker for unavailable women. I have discovered (its the first question I ask) that any woman who tells me that her favorite show is SITC is not really relationship material. OK, it's a GROSS generalization, but it has panned out and the GFs I have who are single all love that show, but cry about being single, but any guy that is remotely available they run for the hills. Hey, what do I know? There is no show like that for guys. Guys are dogs, they don't want to watch SITC, they want to HAVE SITC with anyone and everyone. At least the single dudes I know?
Me? Eh, I'm still Waxing poetic and dreamin' da dreams and living large under the milky way. You didn't think I was gonna get all grotesque, did ya? :)
Hopefully you are all racking up. My GS and LEH short calls have worked like a charm and my long call in ENER is holding up mighty fine. I still think lower on LEH and GS and higher on ENER, but we'll see. If you are in them, I would tighten up your stops, GS will get a squeeze at some pt soon. I still say its below $125 longer term (and maybe short term) but they love to love GS. In fact, I know guys (some gurls, too) who want to make love to GS!
Yes, its a new show and its called - SWGS (Sex with Goldman Sachs). Just watch CNBC afterhours and you'll see how many times they make love with it saying what a great deal it is. Yep, sure it is and my name ain't Waxierunoooooo!
See ya on the other side, ladies and gents -
Michael da Waxie da Parness
RULE!
As far as the rest of the market, well the AGS racked up huge gains again - POT, AGU, BG, etc. all had monster sized gains BUT the financials once again just bit the dust in a BIG BIG BIG way!
You gotta believe that the news coming is only gonna get worse and that eventually in the not too distant future the stuff holding up now is gonna get hit. If you look at oil today you see the danger in being the last one holding the bag. I'm not calling a top on Oil, it looks like $150 is a done deal at some point (I did call that not so long ago), but the volatility in the commodities market will reign supreme as long as the dollar remains weak-butted and falling into a bottomless pit!
On another note, I saw one of the worst films of all-time. The new Indiana Jones film was just absolutely absurdly atrocious. I kinda didn't want to see it, but I got caught in the hot NYC humidity yesterday afternoon and they wanted to see it, and so...oy vey, it was HORRID. I just don't get how anyone could give that a good review.
OK, 1st off, Harrison Ford looks closer to a wheel chair then he does to kicking big dudes butts. And, not just like 50, he musta knocked out like 5000 bad Russians (I don't think the Kremlin really cares much for this movie:)). Then, that kid Shia, I mean, I've liked him in other things, but he's simply not a tough kid. I think I could take the dude with one hand tied behind my back, a foot up my butt and a finger in my freakin' nose. How can they cast him as a tough? Very poor choice.
And, I must be dumb, seriously, because I just didn't get the whole thing with the plastic man faces. I think Speilberg had an ET flashback and decided he was going to combine movies or subliminally get some more sales out of back ordered DVDs!
OK, then I saw (this was my movie weekend) Sandler's movie, Zohan. OK, frankly, it was stupid funny. Sometimes hilariously so. And, overall it was ok. Having said that, it really got to be monotonous and one note. Very much so. It was just downright stupid in places. Well, hell, I just said it was stupid funny, so it got to be stupid stupid in some places. BUT, still heads HEADS above IJ. I was rooting for the bad guys to Kill Indie and the tough kid. That woulda made the movie. I was going to turn communist if it didn't end, I was giving it 10 minutes and then I was taking out my red card! :)
OK, back to the market, I just needed to get that off my hairy chest. OK, so here goes, market is going LOWER. We may bounce here and there but if you are investing you are doing so at your own peril. I just do not see how we are going to get anything really going rally wise. I guess if there is some good news on the financials somehow then we'd get a short term squeeze, but other than that, forgetaboutit.
In the meantime, let's look at Tuesday as more than likely a good trading day. I think the 1st move off the open is gonna be a doosey either way. Meaning if we gap up big and we start to roll over, watch for a trend down day. If we gap down I would look for us to perhaps get a nice reversal to the upside (it is turnaround Tuesday afterall!).
Oh, one more thing, as a guy, I am sure (quite) that both IJ and Zohan were better than Sex and the City! Which, fyi, is my marker for unavailable women. I have discovered (its the first question I ask) that any woman who tells me that her favorite show is SITC is not really relationship material. OK, it's a GROSS generalization, but it has panned out and the GFs I have who are single all love that show, but cry about being single, but any guy that is remotely available they run for the hills. Hey, what do I know? There is no show like that for guys. Guys are dogs, they don't want to watch SITC, they want to HAVE SITC with anyone and everyone. At least the single dudes I know?
Me? Eh, I'm still Waxing poetic and dreamin' da dreams and living large under the milky way. You didn't think I was gonna get all grotesque, did ya? :)
Hopefully you are all racking up. My GS and LEH short calls have worked like a charm and my long call in ENER is holding up mighty fine. I still think lower on LEH and GS and higher on ENER, but we'll see. If you are in them, I would tighten up your stops, GS will get a squeeze at some pt soon. I still say its below $125 longer term (and maybe short term) but they love to love GS. In fact, I know guys (some gurls, too) who want to make love to GS!
Yes, its a new show and its called - SWGS (Sex with Goldman Sachs). Just watch CNBC afterhours and you'll see how many times they make love with it saying what a great deal it is. Yep, sure it is and my name ain't Waxierunoooooo!
See ya on the other side, ladies and gents -
Michael da Waxie da Parness
RULE!
Friday, June 06, 2008
MAY ENDS, and so ends the rally!
OK, folks, today was what I expected for June, we are looking more and more like a breach of the March lows is coming sooner rather than later on the DOW and I expect the Nasdaq to follow suit. Technology won't hold up if the rest of the economy tanks. Unfortunately thats the way its shaping up.
We're looking at shorting FINANCIALS (kill the lowest hanging fruit first!). Then we'll go from there. LEH is gonna get cracked, GS is cracking already and the banks are pretty much doomed here, I believe. Every #s report they rally us HOPING that the # will show that the economy is finally turning! YEAH! NOT!
It's not gonna happen, sorry. I wish I were wrong, trust me. It impacts me as much as it impacts everyone else. The value of my money is less, and keeping you guys happy is harder. But, reality trumps hope!
I suspect unless there is some news we get a gap down (a gap up would be a serious short without any substancial news!). If it gets ugly we could get a near term capitulatory move and then an up move and then a nice bounce. Volatility is thriving and that should mean nice ka-chingos for us, so stick around and if you aren't a member yet, make sure you take the 2 week FREE trial or join one of our other services. This is a market rife with opportunity.
In the meantime, we're been approached about taking Trend Fund and Trend Trading to Win public, merging with a shell. So, who knows, perhaps we'll be calling our own stock short (that's a JOKE!)! With Investools (the model we're using) having a market cap north of $400 MIL, hey, why not! We shall see, life offers many twists and turns! If anyone has any insights or interest, feel free to email me at - waxie@trendfund.com
I think in this market people need some guidance and a safe place to learn, that's what we do best! I think that the market is going to be VERY rough for a long while for anyone trying to invest. You can listen to these pundits all you want, or you can listen to reality. Reality says the economy is shot for the forseeable future and you need to be SHORT here. Fantasy says you should buy buy buy. Sometimes there isn't a bull market anywhere. Yeah, energy, commodities, but at some pt. the underlying stocks will crack as well. That's been my experience.
I stick with my thought that short LEH, short GS, short some technology (TWM looks like a nice BUY here since its the inverse (double it) of the Russell.
In the meantime, have a great weekend. Peace be with ya, dudes and dudesses!
Michael "WAXIE" Parness
*My movie, CRAZY FOR LOVE is debuting in Blockbuster early next week, pick up a copy and write some nice things, if ya like it, on IMDB.com
We're looking at shorting FINANCIALS (kill the lowest hanging fruit first!). Then we'll go from there. LEH is gonna get cracked, GS is cracking already and the banks are pretty much doomed here, I believe. Every #s report they rally us HOPING that the # will show that the economy is finally turning! YEAH! NOT!
It's not gonna happen, sorry. I wish I were wrong, trust me. It impacts me as much as it impacts everyone else. The value of my money is less, and keeping you guys happy is harder. But, reality trumps hope!
I suspect unless there is some news we get a gap down (a gap up would be a serious short without any substancial news!). If it gets ugly we could get a near term capitulatory move and then an up move and then a nice bounce. Volatility is thriving and that should mean nice ka-chingos for us, so stick around and if you aren't a member yet, make sure you take the 2 week FREE trial or join one of our other services. This is a market rife with opportunity.
In the meantime, we're been approached about taking Trend Fund and Trend Trading to Win public, merging with a shell. So, who knows, perhaps we'll be calling our own stock short (that's a JOKE!)! With Investools (the model we're using) having a market cap north of $400 MIL, hey, why not! We shall see, life offers many twists and turns! If anyone has any insights or interest, feel free to email me at - waxie@trendfund.com
I think in this market people need some guidance and a safe place to learn, that's what we do best! I think that the market is going to be VERY rough for a long while for anyone trying to invest. You can listen to these pundits all you want, or you can listen to reality. Reality says the economy is shot for the forseeable future and you need to be SHORT here. Fantasy says you should buy buy buy. Sometimes there isn't a bull market anywhere. Yeah, energy, commodities, but at some pt. the underlying stocks will crack as well. That's been my experience.
I stick with my thought that short LEH, short GS, short some technology (TWM looks like a nice BUY here since its the inverse (double it) of the Russell.
In the meantime, have a great weekend. Peace be with ya, dudes and dudesses!
Michael "WAXIE" Parness
*My movie, CRAZY FOR LOVE is debuting in Blockbuster early next week, pick up a copy and write some nice things, if ya like it, on IMDB.com
Thursday, June 05, 2008
Ka-chingo!
Market gapped up, faded and then ZOOMED the whole day, closing right at its peak! A very sharp TREND DAY, one of the best days a trader can have, if ya catch it!
ENER mentioned here last night on the blog was up over $4 (beastly move, we own the calls!) and will probably get another bump into the CEO speaking at the conference tomorrow. Might want to sell into that strength, at least part, assuming it happens.
ER/Rusell zoomed to a HOY and may get another leg up. Tech is being bought at a furious pace. Even the financials bounced (it'll set up another short soon), but the leaders here are CLEARLY the tecnology companies, and yes, the AGs and ENERGY (solar and oil/gas). I have to say, I'm surprised at the technology rally. I don't think its justified, but if nothing else I've learned over the years that the market doesn't need justification to do anything, it does what it does based on perception. Right now the perception still remains that the 2nd half will see a pickup in the economy. I think thats a bunch of malarky, but I certainly could and have been wrong, I'm not an economist, I'm a WAXIE!
Someone emailed me a question about the Nasdaq vs. the DOW and why the Nasdaq has been much stronger, relatively speaking. It's a fairly simple answer. The DOW has a huge financial makeup. The Nasdaq has a fair amount, but is much more technology heavy. So, in order for the DOW to really get cooking, the financials (Banks, Brokers, Insurers, REITs, Mortgage brokers/resellers, etc). need to start humming, like they did today. When these stocks finally do REALLY bottom, the DOW will rip huge. Of course where that bottom truly is could be now (doubtful) or it could be 4000 pts lower on the DOW (or somewhere, most likely, in between).
In the meantime, let's keep the powder dry. I'm watching ENER being bid up another $1.50 after hours! Weeee! Nice! Love it when its this easy!
Friday should be interesting. The market keeps anticipating an economic turnaround. I really don't think it should be, but it is and thus we run into #s these days in the hopes that TODAY is the day we start to turn it around! Hey, maybe it is, maybe it is! Until or after, though, the TRADER WILL RULE!
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
ENER mentioned here last night on the blog was up over $4 (beastly move, we own the calls!) and will probably get another bump into the CEO speaking at the conference tomorrow. Might want to sell into that strength, at least part, assuming it happens.
ER/Rusell zoomed to a HOY and may get another leg up. Tech is being bought at a furious pace. Even the financials bounced (it'll set up another short soon), but the leaders here are CLEARLY the tecnology companies, and yes, the AGs and ENERGY (solar and oil/gas). I have to say, I'm surprised at the technology rally. I don't think its justified, but if nothing else I've learned over the years that the market doesn't need justification to do anything, it does what it does based on perception. Right now the perception still remains that the 2nd half will see a pickup in the economy. I think thats a bunch of malarky, but I certainly could and have been wrong, I'm not an economist, I'm a WAXIE!
Someone emailed me a question about the Nasdaq vs. the DOW and why the Nasdaq has been much stronger, relatively speaking. It's a fairly simple answer. The DOW has a huge financial makeup. The Nasdaq has a fair amount, but is much more technology heavy. So, in order for the DOW to really get cooking, the financials (Banks, Brokers, Insurers, REITs, Mortgage brokers/resellers, etc). need to start humming, like they did today. When these stocks finally do REALLY bottom, the DOW will rip huge. Of course where that bottom truly is could be now (doubtful) or it could be 4000 pts lower on the DOW (or somewhere, most likely, in between).
In the meantime, let's keep the powder dry. I'm watching ENER being bid up another $1.50 after hours! Weeee! Nice! Love it when its this easy!
Friday should be interesting. The market keeps anticipating an economic turnaround. I really don't think it should be, but it is and thus we run into #s these days in the hopes that TODAY is the day we start to turn it around! Hey, maybe it is, maybe it is! Until or after, though, the TRADER WILL RULE!
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
I'm looking for May again!
OK, so here ya have the 1st week of June selloff underway (almost finished). We tried to rally early and it's not like we tanked, but we did finish right at the lows of day, not a strong sign and not a good sign. Maybe it's not a sign, but either way it ain't pretty!
Here's the dealio kiddies. I'm gonna give you some insight into how I personally think. Now perhaps it will be meaningful to some of you, perhaps not. And, perhaps it'll pan out, we shall see, but regardless this is part of what has made me the Waxie I am today!
OK, so you saw the early news (pre-market) on LEH, that they need to go and raise $4 BIL. And, as such the futures were tanking pretty hard, and LEH was down nearly $2. In fact the SKF, the inverse financial sector (short it by buying this long) was up nearly $3 premarket which is a pretty huge move.
Well, I thought we would bounce and we did and LEH went green by over $2 at one point on a short squeeze, nothing else. SKF went red by $2.
Now, why is that important? #1 nearly every financial stock that has said they wanted to raise money has gapped down and then filled the gap on a sell the rumor, buy the news scenario. SO, the bounce made perfect sense. And, even more imporantly, these stocks have then based and DIED - ALL OF THEM. WM, C, WB, USB. Look at the charts. So, what I'm saying is, if you want to short a broker, lock and load and load up on LEH short. While the trend may not work this time, my guess is it does in a big way. LEH looks like toast. I would not want to be long LEH if you gave me the money. Again, the trend may not work short term, but I think these stocks are all headed to the toilet. We shall see, but I just don't see how they can get any sustained bounce longer term. Squeezes will happen, but ultimately reality has to set in (usually) and the stocks will find themselves in the drink, and any investors in them will start to drink, or drink heavier in the end! Thursday watch ENER, the CEO speaks at a conference Friday it could get a nice bounce at some pt during the day into that event. See ya on the other side, Michael "Waxie" Parness
Here's the dealio kiddies. I'm gonna give you some insight into how I personally think. Now perhaps it will be meaningful to some of you, perhaps not. And, perhaps it'll pan out, we shall see, but regardless this is part of what has made me the Waxie I am today!
OK, so you saw the early news (pre-market) on LEH, that they need to go and raise $4 BIL. And, as such the futures were tanking pretty hard, and LEH was down nearly $2. In fact the SKF, the inverse financial sector (short it by buying this long) was up nearly $3 premarket which is a pretty huge move.
Well, I thought we would bounce and we did and LEH went green by over $2 at one point on a short squeeze, nothing else. SKF went red by $2.
Now, why is that important? #1 nearly every financial stock that has said they wanted to raise money has gapped down and then filled the gap on a sell the rumor, buy the news scenario. SO, the bounce made perfect sense. And, even more imporantly, these stocks have then based and DIED - ALL OF THEM. WM, C, WB, USB. Look at the charts. So, what I'm saying is, if you want to short a broker, lock and load and load up on LEH short. While the trend may not work this time, my guess is it does in a big way. LEH looks like toast. I would not want to be long LEH if you gave me the money. Again, the trend may not work short term, but I think these stocks are all headed to the toilet. We shall see, but I just don't see how they can get any sustained bounce longer term. Squeezes will happen, but ultimately reality has to set in (usually) and the stocks will find themselves in the drink, and any investors in them will start to drink, or drink heavier in the end! Thursday watch ENER, the CEO speaks at a conference Friday it could get a nice bounce at some pt during the day into that event. See ya on the other side, Michael "Waxie" Parness
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
SELL IN MAY AND GO GO FAR FAR AWAY!
Tuesday showed that the bears are in control as an early rally attempt failed MISERABLY and we got HAMMERED as the day progressed.
If you are investing for the long haul in this market, I will tell you point blank you are a FOOL. We will get rallies, for sure, but the bias is LOWER here and bucking that bias more than likely will result in a CRACKED PORT, something that you should want to avoid.
There are better places to put your money right now than the Stock Market, unless of course you are a TRADER!
Wednesday should be interesting. I would say there's a good shot baring news that we go lower, particularly if we begin the day UP. That would be a great short I think, at least for a trade. We are oversold here a bit, but not enough to warrant a full bounce squeeze. Having said that, I doubt baring news that we go down that much more before getting a bounce attempt. If we get a big gap down, I think we should get a decent bounce.
Someone asked me today about the AGS and SOLAR stocks. Look, I love trading these stocks like POT, AGU, CMP (my fav, soon to be $100 stock) and FSLR and ENER, but eventually these sectors are going to get nasty drawdowns. I would not want to be buying POT here, if you missed it why do you want to be this late to the wedding, they have already gotten a divorce by this time and baby I don't want to be the last guy holding the bag!
Now, its possible that these stocks just continue to plow ahead, but I doubt it. My experience says that these things when they crack will crack HARD. The trick is not trying to pick that top, but rather take the short side when they start to crack. There's just no reason to short the strongest stocks on the board, but any bad news and I think they start to crumble. Bear markets go in stages. Stage 1 is the initial selloff and breaking of support. Step 2 the weakest get weaker. Step 3 the middle stocks start falling and Stage 4 the strongest stocks crack HARD! Look at 2000 to 2003, you will see that the strongest stocks held up the longest but then caught up in a HUGE way. We're not there yet, but unfortunately I think we will be not so far from now. We're here to help you find that place and take advantage of it.
I will see you guys tomorrow, if you see a late day rally start to develop on any day rest of this week I would jump; aboard. Same thing with a sharp selloff on no news that will probably lead to a real bounce, at least for the day.
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
If you are investing for the long haul in this market, I will tell you point blank you are a FOOL. We will get rallies, for sure, but the bias is LOWER here and bucking that bias more than likely will result in a CRACKED PORT, something that you should want to avoid.
There are better places to put your money right now than the Stock Market, unless of course you are a TRADER!
Wednesday should be interesting. I would say there's a good shot baring news that we go lower, particularly if we begin the day UP. That would be a great short I think, at least for a trade. We are oversold here a bit, but not enough to warrant a full bounce squeeze. Having said that, I doubt baring news that we go down that much more before getting a bounce attempt. If we get a big gap down, I think we should get a decent bounce.
Someone asked me today about the AGS and SOLAR stocks. Look, I love trading these stocks like POT, AGU, CMP (my fav, soon to be $100 stock) and FSLR and ENER, but eventually these sectors are going to get nasty drawdowns. I would not want to be buying POT here, if you missed it why do you want to be this late to the wedding, they have already gotten a divorce by this time and baby I don't want to be the last guy holding the bag!
Now, its possible that these stocks just continue to plow ahead, but I doubt it. My experience says that these things when they crack will crack HARD. The trick is not trying to pick that top, but rather take the short side when they start to crack. There's just no reason to short the strongest stocks on the board, but any bad news and I think they start to crumble. Bear markets go in stages. Stage 1 is the initial selloff and breaking of support. Step 2 the weakest get weaker. Step 3 the middle stocks start falling and Stage 4 the strongest stocks crack HARD! Look at 2000 to 2003, you will see that the strongest stocks held up the longest but then caught up in a HUGE way. We're not there yet, but unfortunately I think we will be not so far from now. We're here to help you find that place and take advantage of it.
I will see you guys tomorrow, if you see a late day rally start to develop on any day rest of this week I would jump; aboard. Same thing with a sharp selloff on no news that will probably lead to a real bounce, at least for the day.
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Monday, June 02, 2008
DOWN DIDDY DO DI DOWN...
OK, so 1st day of new month, sell in May and go away so far 1st day = trend wins.
I was hoping with the early down move it would really stick so we could get a real nice bounce Tuesday. As it is and as this market is really sensitive to news flow, mid-day defenses were launched regarding MER and LEH and the market got a hefty bounce off the lows. Still down decently (S&P and ER both down over 1%) but well off the lows of the day. More like the middle of the days range.
So, Tuesday I would love to revisit Monday's lows and see if we can get a nice bounce. The trend here would be lower overall, but it won't be a straight line unless we get dramatic news. The brokers look awful, as do all the financials. S & P downgraded the sector (duh) and frankly I just don't see how or why anyone wants to step in front of that freight train on the short side. GS has SIGNIFICANT room to the downside. You want a short for the long run? OK, take Fast Money's STOCK OF THE YEAR and send in your short, it'll be under $125 at some pt this year, mark it down.
In the meantime, let's see what news come out tomorrow.
FOr the many that have asked, our 2nd issue of SMALL CAP MONSTERS newsletter will hit the "stands" July 1st. Our 1st issue from last month has been a SMASHING MONSTER success!
SATC, our 1st stock is up roughly 50% in a few weeks from $1.80s to $2.80s (was $3). DEPO, our 2nd stock is up better than 15% in same time frame.
We have at least 2 more small cap MONSTERS in the coming issue. If you have any interest email me at waxie@trendfund.com and we'll steer you to the signup in the next week or so. We're also launching a Small Cap TRADER service that will include the newsletter. Prices right now, fyi, are roughly $199 for 6 months of the newsletter (plus a weekly update) and the Small Cap Trader, which gets all of the above, plus intraday plays when appropriate and trades on small caps. That service is $599 for 6 months.
Tomorrow's FREE CLASS which many have emailed me about, email ILENE@trendfund.com and she'll send you the link and instructions. The class will feature Tiny giving some very valuable and I believe profitable tips and tricks for every day trading, and I'll talk about the general market and discuss the upcoming seminar in New Jersey which you ALL should attend! It's got a MONEY BACK GUARENTEE! You have very little to lose and everything to gain!
Check out http://www.trendfund.com/ to see what the NJ Seminar has to offer and sign up today!
Good trading tomorrow, folks!
Just want to send out a prayer for the gentlemen who I saw get hit by a taxi today on Amsterdam and 73rd street. Was pretty horrific, the man was in bad shape when he was taken away. A few people really tried to help and hopefully he'll be ok. Sometimes in the middle of our own self indulgent nonsense we realize that there are a lot more things a lot more important then whether the Dow and Nasdaq were up or down that day, or that week, or that year. We humans are very fragile, and life is indeed precious.
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
I was hoping with the early down move it would really stick so we could get a real nice bounce Tuesday. As it is and as this market is really sensitive to news flow, mid-day defenses were launched regarding MER and LEH and the market got a hefty bounce off the lows. Still down decently (S&P and ER both down over 1%) but well off the lows of the day. More like the middle of the days range.
So, Tuesday I would love to revisit Monday's lows and see if we can get a nice bounce. The trend here would be lower overall, but it won't be a straight line unless we get dramatic news. The brokers look awful, as do all the financials. S & P downgraded the sector (duh) and frankly I just don't see how or why anyone wants to step in front of that freight train on the short side. GS has SIGNIFICANT room to the downside. You want a short for the long run? OK, take Fast Money's STOCK OF THE YEAR and send in your short, it'll be under $125 at some pt this year, mark it down.
In the meantime, let's see what news come out tomorrow.
FOr the many that have asked, our 2nd issue of SMALL CAP MONSTERS newsletter will hit the "stands" July 1st. Our 1st issue from last month has been a SMASHING MONSTER success!
SATC, our 1st stock is up roughly 50% in a few weeks from $1.80s to $2.80s (was $3). DEPO, our 2nd stock is up better than 15% in same time frame.
We have at least 2 more small cap MONSTERS in the coming issue. If you have any interest email me at waxie@trendfund.com and we'll steer you to the signup in the next week or so. We're also launching a Small Cap TRADER service that will include the newsletter. Prices right now, fyi, are roughly $199 for 6 months of the newsletter (plus a weekly update) and the Small Cap Trader, which gets all of the above, plus intraday plays when appropriate and trades on small caps. That service is $599 for 6 months.
Tomorrow's FREE CLASS which many have emailed me about, email ILENE@trendfund.com and she'll send you the link and instructions. The class will feature Tiny giving some very valuable and I believe profitable tips and tricks for every day trading, and I'll talk about the general market and discuss the upcoming seminar in New Jersey which you ALL should attend! It's got a MONEY BACK GUARENTEE! You have very little to lose and everything to gain!
Check out http://www.trendfund.com/ to see what the NJ Seminar has to offer and sign up today!
Good trading tomorrow, folks!
Just want to send out a prayer for the gentlemen who I saw get hit by a taxi today on Amsterdam and 73rd street. Was pretty horrific, the man was in bad shape when he was taken away. A few people really tried to help and hopefully he'll be ok. Sometimes in the middle of our own self indulgent nonsense we realize that there are a lot more things a lot more important then whether the Dow and Nasdaq were up or down that day, or that week, or that year. We humans are very fragile, and life is indeed precious.
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)