As we continue to plow through a very robust earnings season, we can see the power of the almighty TREND.
Stocks continue to get ramped and reramped up into earnings. CAT got upgraded today with earnings due out tomorrow (shocking coincidence, I am sure!).
We need to watch closely as we run through the season, if you pick the right spots you can pick the right stocks. It took me a small while to catch up but now we're looking at some rushes into earnings as more and more stocks "beat" their deflated #s, giving rise to hope that things are getting better.
Perhaps they are, perhaps they are. Let's hope so. I have to say I feel almost naked not being short anything at all, its like someone took all my clothes off and since clearly no one would do that, I must be dreamin'!
Want to thank Lisa Chase for having me on her Political Chick show, was way cool and glad some of you called in. I love doing live radio, its very cool and a lot of fun.
Maybe I'll do my own show soon, ya never know.
I don't have much commentary here other then watch MS early in the day for a potential move into the close into earnings. The stock, however, is trading VERY weak and is trading VERY suspect in terms of how it just can't bust out despite GS earnings and JPM, etc. LM blew out and was up nearly $2 after hours and still MS didn't budge. So...we'll see. $30 is a very key level for MS. It's just not showing any strength here and instinctually I tend to stay away from stocks that trade like this into earnings. I own some, but any spike and I am way gone. See, stocks will often give you "tips" and you need to heed them. Fighting the way a stock trades can be hazardous to your health.
I will say that it's quite disheartening to me that it appears we are setting up for the same situation as we just got out of. JPM and GS are now fast becoming the behemouths and certainly "too big to fail". I thought the idea was to change things so that that doesn't happen again. Guess not. Apparently its great that two firms are sucking up the profits and the glory and that one of them was at least partially responsible for what happened. It's quite amazing that we continue to reward the bad behavior of the banks and that they were bailed out and now many are giving crazy bonuses. Did someone say the American people are suckers? If not, they should cause babies that's what we all are here with this. Astounding.
I wanted to also just comment on trading in general. I get asked a lot "Michael, is it really "THAT" easy to trade? My answer? Yeah, it is, its very easy to learn to trade! What its not that easy to do is make money consistently and to limit your losses. Losing is a BIG part of trading, in fact I said it tonight on air radio that if a good trader makes a million dollars it may often mean that he lost $2 MILLION! HOw can that be you ask? Cause simple math, if you make $3 MIL and lose $2 MIL then you NET $1 MIL.
I never stopped to figure that piece out for myeslf but I am quite sure that I've lost many many millions, but am still millions ahead of the game and in the black. This is a marathon folks, let's not forget that. this market ain't easy. Sometimes the market is like raining money, this isn't one of those times, though if you pick your spots you can do quite well. Quite quite well, and that's ultimately what we aim to do, we aim to pick our spots and try to capitalize on the moves as they happen, rather then after they happen. Trading isn't horseshoes, its not an "almost" business, its very real and its very exact, or at least as exact as losing $2 MIL and making $3 MIL can be!
let's keep the steady market going here, if you stick to the plan you have opportunities and thats all the market ever really promises. There are no sure things in life, or trading. Peace.
See ya on the other side,
RULE!
Waxie
Monday, July 20, 2009
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Wowsa, so much for Head and Shoulders...
Ya know, its a very good thing that I'm not a technical trader. The only thing I know about head and shoulders is that it's a shampoo! Da Dum Dum. Oy vey.
Ok, so that was bad, but I have to tell ya, this is why TRENDS RULE THE MARKET, and WE RULE TRENDS!
We are getting a CLASSIC earnings run, and we are taking advantage of it nicely here! BAC, GE, PRU, JPM, GOOG, MS, all stocks and options we've owned here into this and out of it and the ka-chingos are rather frothy! VEry nice indeed!
It's always amazing to me. I had a couple of bad weeks, admittedly, but I never doubt my abilities. Someone wrote me today saying "I thought maybe you had lost your touch". Maybe that'll happen one day, but the cool thing is, it hasn't yet and even if so, hey, I still have taste and smell to rely on! You didn't know Henny Youngman was still alive, I know.
OK, so enough with the one liners. Thing is, this market, if you are patient and pick your spots is a GREAT trading market. We were just treading water and its easy to overtrade when that happens and its a very tough market to trade then. But, out of the calm usually comes the storm and that's what we've gotten. HUGE moves two out of three days this week and I've said it again and again that I just didn't see how the market was going to die here through earnings without some really bad news. The market is still heavily shorted and any good news is going to be met with extreme short covering.
Also remember, this is options expiration week and moves tend to be exaggerated and pin action is in play. Look at stuff here and tomorrow for clues as to which way we will lean, and which way stocks will go individually. We should get some nice setups for short term trades.
TOmorrow GOOG is on tap after the close. Before the open is JPM which will set the tone for financials. Remember, they are overbought here, so a gap up is not something I would chase, stick with what ya got and ride 'em Trend Traders!
CIT getting a bailout, when does it end? Soon we may have more companies bailed out then companies that are in business!
Watch CME here, if it squeezes it may try for $300s in a jiff. Stock bounced today but on a pullback would be an even better entry on no news. We'll see soon enough!
RULE!
Waxie
Ok, so that was bad, but I have to tell ya, this is why TRENDS RULE THE MARKET, and WE RULE TRENDS!
We are getting a CLASSIC earnings run, and we are taking advantage of it nicely here! BAC, GE, PRU, JPM, GOOG, MS, all stocks and options we've owned here into this and out of it and the ka-chingos are rather frothy! VEry nice indeed!
It's always amazing to me. I had a couple of bad weeks, admittedly, but I never doubt my abilities. Someone wrote me today saying "I thought maybe you had lost your touch". Maybe that'll happen one day, but the cool thing is, it hasn't yet and even if so, hey, I still have taste and smell to rely on! You didn't know Henny Youngman was still alive, I know.
OK, so enough with the one liners. Thing is, this market, if you are patient and pick your spots is a GREAT trading market. We were just treading water and its easy to overtrade when that happens and its a very tough market to trade then. But, out of the calm usually comes the storm and that's what we've gotten. HUGE moves two out of three days this week and I've said it again and again that I just didn't see how the market was going to die here through earnings without some really bad news. The market is still heavily shorted and any good news is going to be met with extreme short covering.
Also remember, this is options expiration week and moves tend to be exaggerated and pin action is in play. Look at stuff here and tomorrow for clues as to which way we will lean, and which way stocks will go individually. We should get some nice setups for short term trades.
TOmorrow GOOG is on tap after the close. Before the open is JPM which will set the tone for financials. Remember, they are overbought here, so a gap up is not something I would chase, stick with what ya got and ride 'em Trend Traders!
CIT getting a bailout, when does it end? Soon we may have more companies bailed out then companies that are in business!
Watch CME here, if it squeezes it may try for $300s in a jiff. Stock bounced today but on a pullback would be an even better entry on no news. We'll see soon enough!
RULE!
Waxie
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Earnings rockers...
GS blow out
INTC blow out
If ya had to guess, you'd have to think there's gonna be some nice blowouts from the likes of GOOG, AAPL, etc.
Market way up afterhours on INTC earnings. GS still using $150 as STRONG resistence, even with the HUGE blowout it couldn't yet bust out of that price. The gap up tomorrow should be interesting and should set up some nice short term trades for those patient enough to pick spots.
As I've been saying for a while, this is a tough market to short for more then very short term trades here. We will crash and burn but its unlikely to happen through earnings period here, which means picking your spots should pay off mightily. I'm looking at some really nice potential Options plays for next week or two. Watch energy, Oil may get a nice bounce over the next week or two off the $60 level if it can hold here there. I suspect it will and am looking at upcoming earnings in the energy sector to play.
Not much else to talk about, the hearings on Capital Hill remain problematic longer term but give hope short term and right now this market is trading on HOPE.
As you know, to me, HOPE is a four letter word for traders, BUT that doesn't mean we can't catch some nice moves.
Watch KLAC off the open on a dip, they have an analyst meeting it appears today and should be "in play" until that comes off, and maybe after as well and might be worth a flyer early in the day off INTC and into their conference.
RULE!
Waxie
*Please order my new book on Amazon - Rule Your Freakin' Retirement! It's a sure winner and you should own it!
INTC blow out
If ya had to guess, you'd have to think there's gonna be some nice blowouts from the likes of GOOG, AAPL, etc.
Market way up afterhours on INTC earnings. GS still using $150 as STRONG resistence, even with the HUGE blowout it couldn't yet bust out of that price. The gap up tomorrow should be interesting and should set up some nice short term trades for those patient enough to pick spots.
As I've been saying for a while, this is a tough market to short for more then very short term trades here. We will crash and burn but its unlikely to happen through earnings period here, which means picking your spots should pay off mightily. I'm looking at some really nice potential Options plays for next week or two. Watch energy, Oil may get a nice bounce over the next week or two off the $60 level if it can hold here there. I suspect it will and am looking at upcoming earnings in the energy sector to play.
Not much else to talk about, the hearings on Capital Hill remain problematic longer term but give hope short term and right now this market is trading on HOPE.
As you know, to me, HOPE is a four letter word for traders, BUT that doesn't mean we can't catch some nice moves.
Watch KLAC off the open on a dip, they have an analyst meeting it appears today and should be "in play" until that comes off, and maybe after as well and might be worth a flyer early in the day off INTC and into their conference.
RULE!
Waxie
*Please order my new book on Amazon - Rule Your Freakin' Retirement! It's a sure winner and you should own it!
Monday, July 13, 2009
There ya go...
The market awakens!
Lo and behold its during earnings season, who knew? GS racking up big gains, as were rest of financials.
We owned MS, so very nice, also BAC and now GE. Key here is what GS does first in terms of the estimates,and secondary as far as the stock action. If GS blows out, which seems likely, and the stock sells off that is a very bad sign. If they blow out and the stock goes up $10+ or even $20+ then thats a sign things are and should get better, at least this week!
Earnings plays are working, folks, keep your eyes and mouth open for clues of what to do and where to go.
In the meantime, I think watching AAPL and RIMM is a good idea for further up moves. AAPL I think reports next week.
It's late, I will try to post tomorrow. I think all eyes are on GS, hail, ice and sleet are wrong. The question is, does it thaw or just plough ahead!
Waxie
Lo and behold its during earnings season, who knew? GS racking up big gains, as were rest of financials.
We owned MS, so very nice, also BAC and now GE. Key here is what GS does first in terms of the estimates,and secondary as far as the stock action. If GS blows out, which seems likely, and the stock sells off that is a very bad sign. If they blow out and the stock goes up $10+ or even $20+ then thats a sign things are and should get better, at least this week!
Earnings plays are working, folks, keep your eyes and mouth open for clues of what to do and where to go.
In the meantime, I think watching AAPL and RIMM is a good idea for further up moves. AAPL I think reports next week.
It's late, I will try to post tomorrow. I think all eyes are on GS, hail, ice and sleet are wrong. The question is, does it thaw or just plough ahead!
Waxie
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Can someone wake me up when the market does something?
Jeez, I was watching Spike late night a few days ago. And, yes, I am one of those people who REALLY doesn't watch TV unless I'm vegging at 3 am after writing my blog (like now) or whatever. Well, I was watching it and they have this show called "1000 ways to Die". Now, if you know the show, then you should see a therapist immediately, you need it, hehe. What kind of crazy world do we live in where enough people tune in to a show that shows you 1000 horrendous ways in which people actually died? And, sickest thing is, they interview doctors (supposedly) who joke about what happened to these poor saps. Jeez, louise!
Now, I'm no prude, but I was very depressed watching this, I mean, I thought that dying was when you lose $100,000 in a day trading, or you miss having a $20 gainer or five bagger cause you had to drop your kids off at school!
I guess that's 1000 ways to lose trading, instead. Hmm, maybe that would be a good show.
Do you guys and gals know that we are now francising Trendfund.com? We're working on deals in a couple of countries, talk about crazy worlds. We'll see if they pan out, but kinda cool regardless. Also, I own the trademark on the World Series of Trading and have a killer concept for it, we should be rolling that out shortly as well. Stay tuned.
The market is trading so tight its VERY VERY hard to catch stuff day to day. Intraday is even tough at the moment. The good thing is, the market is always morphing, so we had 2 years of EXTREME volatility and now we have a few weeks of very low volatility. I've said it 50 times, but key here is to be patient and pick your spots. It'll be interesting to see if we finally do get a nice pullback now that the 2nd quarter Window Dressing is over. Part of the issue with the market, in my view, is that we have so many conflicting signals. This typically would be a good time for a pullin, and we very well could get it, but then again we have earnings period here now which will garner a lot of interest as no one wants to miss another leg up if it might happen.
So, again, patience is key. And, we've got to practice it. Don't go chasing, it'll cost ya in the end.
In the meantime, I bought a new system for classes so the sound should be a lot better then it has been. It tested off the charts for those that had issues yesterday in the Psychology of trading class I did.
Stay tuned for more offers shortly!
RULE!
Michael "waxie"
Now, I'm no prude, but I was very depressed watching this, I mean, I thought that dying was when you lose $100,000 in a day trading, or you miss having a $20 gainer or five bagger cause you had to drop your kids off at school!
I guess that's 1000 ways to lose trading, instead. Hmm, maybe that would be a good show.
Do you guys and gals know that we are now francising Trendfund.com? We're working on deals in a couple of countries, talk about crazy worlds. We'll see if they pan out, but kinda cool regardless. Also, I own the trademark on the World Series of Trading and have a killer concept for it, we should be rolling that out shortly as well. Stay tuned.
The market is trading so tight its VERY VERY hard to catch stuff day to day. Intraday is even tough at the moment. The good thing is, the market is always morphing, so we had 2 years of EXTREME volatility and now we have a few weeks of very low volatility. I've said it 50 times, but key here is to be patient and pick your spots. It'll be interesting to see if we finally do get a nice pullback now that the 2nd quarter Window Dressing is over. Part of the issue with the market, in my view, is that we have so many conflicting signals. This typically would be a good time for a pullin, and we very well could get it, but then again we have earnings period here now which will garner a lot of interest as no one wants to miss another leg up if it might happen.
So, again, patience is key. And, we've got to practice it. Don't go chasing, it'll cost ya in the end.
In the meantime, I bought a new system for classes so the sound should be a lot better then it has been. It tested off the charts for those that had issues yesterday in the Psychology of trading class I did.
Stay tuned for more offers shortly!
RULE!
Michael "waxie"
Thursday, June 25, 2009
WINDOW DRESSING, chop and slop...
OK, finally a nice easy day. I was beginning to wonder if I'd feel like that ever again, hehe! It's been a couple tough weeks, even for top notch traders, and yeah, even for me - waxieeeeeeeeee!
Thursday we had a big fat gap down and sweet reversal! Market rocked and closed at its highs. Very nice trend day off the gap down, those are about the best trading days we can possibly have. Once a month and you can make a living off just those days!
Friday we should get some choppy digestion action off Thursdays big move and into the weekend. I think you have to buy the open on a gap down on no news. A must buy here, and I would look at GOOG and BIDU in particular to buy. I was thisclose to calling PALM for earnings but unfortunately talked myself out of it! Hate that! :)
Tough day for Icon's, I tell ya. When have you ever heard about 3 major iconic figures all passing away within 24 hours basically? Ed McMahon, Farrah Fawcett and Michael Jackson. Ed M. the only one who lived a longish life. Farrah, what baby boomer didn't have that poster with her in that red top and her smile and, well, everything else! She was my first love, and for that I will mourn her if nothing else. I never met her, I never met any of them, but they all represent(ed) different eras, and different demographs, and all will be missed. Michael Jackson always seemed such a tragic figure. I'd have paid to get inside that dudes head for a day just to figure it all out. Maybe I woulda rewired him a bit, but who am I to judge anyone? Hey, if you want to make yourself look like Diana Ross, I'm not gonna stop ya or judge ya. I'd like to make myself look like some people, but I just don't have the cash to make it work, so I'll have to stick with what I have. Such is the tragedy of my life!!!!
I don't know, I watched Bernanke testify and then I heard all the talking heads. I mean, I'm not an expert in human mannerisms, but I would bet my bottom dollar the guy was lying like a freakin' RUG! I love that one dude who said something like "I've overseen many committees over the years and one thing I know is that at times people say they don't remember in order not to perjur themselves, are you doing that Mr Bernanke?" Of course the answer was that he REALLY couldn't remember, but it was pretty funny that he remembered exact conversations one after another, but the one that might get him in a lot of hot water he can't remember. Hmmm.
And, I love this idea that he is somehow above the law because we can't afford to rock the boat! Let me tell you something, and this is my opinion, so take it for what it's worth. During Bush's tenure this same logic was used to stretch international laws and our own integrity as a nation in redefining what the US officially was allowed to do in interegation - namely torture. Why? Well, the rationale was that it was special times after 9/11 and it was in the nation's interests to use these "techniques" to elicit information. Now, some may agree with that logic, and I respect that, I don't agree, but that's part of what makes us such a great nation, we can have discourse and agree to disagree.
Fast forward to what's going on now and here we are bending the rules and the rationale is that these are extraordinary times and that its in the nations best interest to use these "techniques" to twist CEO's arms to get them to complete deals they might not otherwise have done.
I am nowhere near perfect as a human being, or a trader. I make a lot of mistakes and have and will continue in my life. I'll be first to admit that. So, I don't like to sit in judgement often, but I think that using these excuses and invoking "national interest" in order to do something goes against the very integrity and beliefs this country was born of. Breaking the constitution because its conveinent or because its easy to say "its national interest" in my opinion is a very bad precedent to set. And, invoking it now but then condemning what someone else did is hypocritical in my view. Is torture worse then arm twisting? Yes, most assuredly if I was to compare the two for myself, but boundaries are something that once you break them, it's hard to go back and unbreak them, and it gets easier and easier to break them again. It's my biggest problem with the whole too big to fail notion. It has become easy to bail out anything and everything now and long term, I fear, we are creating a nation that doesn't hold itself accountable. That, my friends, would be tragic and a very bad idea.
One thing I love about trading is that you get to make mistakes and then redeem yourself and then make more mistakes and redeem yourself again. You get to remake yourself over and over again, each trade is a new start. But, if I lose, I lose, no one says "oh, you lost, here ya go, Waxie, we'll take that loss and you keep the profits!"
I make money, I keep it and pay taxes. I lose money, there are consequences, trust me. I have less money when I lose, its very simple.
So, I have to focus and treat it as a business. If in the back of my head I thought "ya know, if i lose its ok, the government will bail me out anyway!" it makes it much easier to lose focus and make stupid mistakes (I make my share as it is, hehe!).
Capitalism must be preserved. Hey, I don't know if Bennie has made good choices or not for sure. I don't agree with most of what they are doing or have done, and I know they just keep saying that the world would have blown up if they didn't take the actions they did (which I find disingenuous, fyi). Maybe this is all true, but the longer this culture exists, it will continues to stretch the system to the point of no return. AT some point we need to hold ourselves, all of us, accountable for our own actions. In my opinion, when that happens as a nation, we will move forward positively and be much much better off!
And, if you disagree, its totally cool. Again, that's what makes a great nation, and I certainly could be wrong, or right, or maybe fall in the middle in the end.
In the end YOU need to RULE, and rule with us!
Best to all and to all a good night!
Waxie
Thursday we had a big fat gap down and sweet reversal! Market rocked and closed at its highs. Very nice trend day off the gap down, those are about the best trading days we can possibly have. Once a month and you can make a living off just those days!
Friday we should get some choppy digestion action off Thursdays big move and into the weekend. I think you have to buy the open on a gap down on no news. A must buy here, and I would look at GOOG and BIDU in particular to buy. I was thisclose to calling PALM for earnings but unfortunately talked myself out of it! Hate that! :)
Tough day for Icon's, I tell ya. When have you ever heard about 3 major iconic figures all passing away within 24 hours basically? Ed McMahon, Farrah Fawcett and Michael Jackson. Ed M. the only one who lived a longish life. Farrah, what baby boomer didn't have that poster with her in that red top and her smile and, well, everything else! She was my first love, and for that I will mourn her if nothing else. I never met her, I never met any of them, but they all represent(ed) different eras, and different demographs, and all will be missed. Michael Jackson always seemed such a tragic figure. I'd have paid to get inside that dudes head for a day just to figure it all out. Maybe I woulda rewired him a bit, but who am I to judge anyone? Hey, if you want to make yourself look like Diana Ross, I'm not gonna stop ya or judge ya. I'd like to make myself look like some people, but I just don't have the cash to make it work, so I'll have to stick with what I have. Such is the tragedy of my life!!!!
I don't know, I watched Bernanke testify and then I heard all the talking heads. I mean, I'm not an expert in human mannerisms, but I would bet my bottom dollar the guy was lying like a freakin' RUG! I love that one dude who said something like "I've overseen many committees over the years and one thing I know is that at times people say they don't remember in order not to perjur themselves, are you doing that Mr Bernanke?" Of course the answer was that he REALLY couldn't remember, but it was pretty funny that he remembered exact conversations one after another, but the one that might get him in a lot of hot water he can't remember. Hmmm.
And, I love this idea that he is somehow above the law because we can't afford to rock the boat! Let me tell you something, and this is my opinion, so take it for what it's worth. During Bush's tenure this same logic was used to stretch international laws and our own integrity as a nation in redefining what the US officially was allowed to do in interegation - namely torture. Why? Well, the rationale was that it was special times after 9/11 and it was in the nation's interests to use these "techniques" to elicit information. Now, some may agree with that logic, and I respect that, I don't agree, but that's part of what makes us such a great nation, we can have discourse and agree to disagree.
Fast forward to what's going on now and here we are bending the rules and the rationale is that these are extraordinary times and that its in the nations best interest to use these "techniques" to twist CEO's arms to get them to complete deals they might not otherwise have done.
I am nowhere near perfect as a human being, or a trader. I make a lot of mistakes and have and will continue in my life. I'll be first to admit that. So, I don't like to sit in judgement often, but I think that using these excuses and invoking "national interest" in order to do something goes against the very integrity and beliefs this country was born of. Breaking the constitution because its conveinent or because its easy to say "its national interest" in my opinion is a very bad precedent to set. And, invoking it now but then condemning what someone else did is hypocritical in my view. Is torture worse then arm twisting? Yes, most assuredly if I was to compare the two for myself, but boundaries are something that once you break them, it's hard to go back and unbreak them, and it gets easier and easier to break them again. It's my biggest problem with the whole too big to fail notion. It has become easy to bail out anything and everything now and long term, I fear, we are creating a nation that doesn't hold itself accountable. That, my friends, would be tragic and a very bad idea.
One thing I love about trading is that you get to make mistakes and then redeem yourself and then make more mistakes and redeem yourself again. You get to remake yourself over and over again, each trade is a new start. But, if I lose, I lose, no one says "oh, you lost, here ya go, Waxie, we'll take that loss and you keep the profits!"
I make money, I keep it and pay taxes. I lose money, there are consequences, trust me. I have less money when I lose, its very simple.
So, I have to focus and treat it as a business. If in the back of my head I thought "ya know, if i lose its ok, the government will bail me out anyway!" it makes it much easier to lose focus and make stupid mistakes (I make my share as it is, hehe!).
Capitalism must be preserved. Hey, I don't know if Bennie has made good choices or not for sure. I don't agree with most of what they are doing or have done, and I know they just keep saying that the world would have blown up if they didn't take the actions they did (which I find disingenuous, fyi). Maybe this is all true, but the longer this culture exists, it will continues to stretch the system to the point of no return. AT some point we need to hold ourselves, all of us, accountable for our own actions. In my opinion, when that happens as a nation, we will move forward positively and be much much better off!
And, if you disagree, its totally cool. Again, that's what makes a great nation, and I certainly could be wrong, or right, or maybe fall in the middle in the end.
In the end YOU need to RULE, and rule with us!
Best to all and to all a good night!
Waxie
Sunday, June 21, 2009
NO MAN'S LAND...but...
It's better then living someplace where there's no free speech, or a real market!
I can't turn on the news anymore, call me a woosey, but it's just too painful to watch people getting mutilated by their own people (or any people for that matter).
The only good that comes out of something like what's going on in Iran is that people, I think, here see that not everyone (in fact most) Iran's are not embodied by their knucklehead "President" who spews bile everyone. There are radicals everywhere, even here. It's very sad watching people get killed because they are seeking to have a voice. We're lucky to live in a place where most people respect the right to free speech and where a free market system enables us, and schlubs like me to trade and make a living. Hopefully that remains the case. We get to see what happens when government goes too far and takes the will of the people too far. Or, not far enough!
The market remains in no man's land. The bias for this week is historically VERY positive. This is the last week of the 2nd quarter and it follows a positive quarter for the markets in general, plus we have earnings upcoming on many strong stocks. That typically means we have a strong positive bias. That's the very bullish case.
On the flip side, the market hasn't been able to bust and hold above 950 on the S & P and every attempt to mount it is sold forcefully, so far.
I lean LONG, citing the bullish arguement for now, though I wouldn't play heavily here either way as I just think there are too many people leaning long along with me at this point and it could weigh on the market.
Best would be a drawdown Monday and Tuesday which would give us a place to start a nice ramp into end of the quarter window dressing.
Also remember that eventually this world crazy stuff does indeed impact our markets, we are not alone in the world and we are affected - thankfully.
Let's say a prayer for the good people of Iran who are fighting for their own freedoms and be grateful for ours.
I'm laying low this week, but should be able to post here a few times. I am just not really getting better so far and besides the fact that I had two bad trading weeks (yup, it happens to even me when I trade when I'm not supposed to!) so going to follow my own rules and lay a bit low until I'm back on my feet a bit more consistently.
Watch the range we're in for clean breaks and palces to hop on board. I think you have to buy the dips rather then sell the moves higher here still, but again, patience is a virtue, so do NOT overtrade either way!
RULE!
Waxie
I can't turn on the news anymore, call me a woosey, but it's just too painful to watch people getting mutilated by their own people (or any people for that matter).
The only good that comes out of something like what's going on in Iran is that people, I think, here see that not everyone (in fact most) Iran's are not embodied by their knucklehead "President" who spews bile everyone. There are radicals everywhere, even here. It's very sad watching people get killed because they are seeking to have a voice. We're lucky to live in a place where most people respect the right to free speech and where a free market system enables us, and schlubs like me to trade and make a living. Hopefully that remains the case. We get to see what happens when government goes too far and takes the will of the people too far. Or, not far enough!
The market remains in no man's land. The bias for this week is historically VERY positive. This is the last week of the 2nd quarter and it follows a positive quarter for the markets in general, plus we have earnings upcoming on many strong stocks. That typically means we have a strong positive bias. That's the very bullish case.
On the flip side, the market hasn't been able to bust and hold above 950 on the S & P and every attempt to mount it is sold forcefully, so far.
I lean LONG, citing the bullish arguement for now, though I wouldn't play heavily here either way as I just think there are too many people leaning long along with me at this point and it could weigh on the market.
Best would be a drawdown Monday and Tuesday which would give us a place to start a nice ramp into end of the quarter window dressing.
Also remember that eventually this world crazy stuff does indeed impact our markets, we are not alone in the world and we are affected - thankfully.
Let's say a prayer for the good people of Iran who are fighting for their own freedoms and be grateful for ours.
I'm laying low this week, but should be able to post here a few times. I am just not really getting better so far and besides the fact that I had two bad trading weeks (yup, it happens to even me when I trade when I'm not supposed to!) so going to follow my own rules and lay a bit low until I'm back on my feet a bit more consistently.
Watch the range we're in for clean breaks and palces to hop on board. I think you have to buy the dips rather then sell the moves higher here still, but again, patience is a virtue, so do NOT overtrade either way!
RULE!
Waxie
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
I have a sneaky suspicion...
The chop and slop is about to end...
Get ready for some very good trading, both ways, folks.
Keep the powder dry. Today RIMM reports after the close, watch the action on RIMM as a near term barometer for how AAPL, GOOG and the rest of tech should act post earnings. It's unlikely RIMM won't blow out, but the stock has doubled into earnings, so does the stock go to $100s, or at least get a move up, or does it sell the news? This is a KEY earnings report.
Friday is options expiration, as I discussed in the free class today they should be angling to pin momentum stocks to strike prices (and boring stocks as well). You should be watching levels to get a favorable risk/reward.
Watch GOOG here as well, that MSFT news is NOT good for GOOG, MSFT at least initially is cutting into GOOG market share with BING and if that trend continues then GOOG's days as a $300 stock, let alone $400 are nearing an end. I still think it'll happen anyway, but BING could put GOOG on a fast track down. WAY down long term.
I'm not going to talk politics or angst tonight, I'm beat and its boring even me, hehe! I still feel the same way, and I still think I'm right, but I'm just a Waxie and no one wants to listen to a Waxie! :)
Banks are at a critical juncture here. If they can not bounce here and into end of month (I think they get a bounce at least for that) they should be toast. Do you realize that BAC has gotten so many upgrades that my head is gonna spin off if they get any more! And yet the stock is DOWN during that time period and can't bust out. Stock is $12.30 and the other day they got a $22.50 price target. I'm not sure, but I think just about every major brokerage has upgraded them to a buy recently and nothing. That's a dead tired market, folks and we need to respect that. Having said that, we should bounce here today or VERY shortly as fund managers look to buy the dip. We shall see!
RULE!
Waxie
Get ready for some very good trading, both ways, folks.
Keep the powder dry. Today RIMM reports after the close, watch the action on RIMM as a near term barometer for how AAPL, GOOG and the rest of tech should act post earnings. It's unlikely RIMM won't blow out, but the stock has doubled into earnings, so does the stock go to $100s, or at least get a move up, or does it sell the news? This is a KEY earnings report.
Friday is options expiration, as I discussed in the free class today they should be angling to pin momentum stocks to strike prices (and boring stocks as well). You should be watching levels to get a favorable risk/reward.
Watch GOOG here as well, that MSFT news is NOT good for GOOG, MSFT at least initially is cutting into GOOG market share with BING and if that trend continues then GOOG's days as a $300 stock, let alone $400 are nearing an end. I still think it'll happen anyway, but BING could put GOOG on a fast track down. WAY down long term.
I'm not going to talk politics or angst tonight, I'm beat and its boring even me, hehe! I still feel the same way, and I still think I'm right, but I'm just a Waxie and no one wants to listen to a Waxie! :)
Banks are at a critical juncture here. If they can not bounce here and into end of month (I think they get a bounce at least for that) they should be toast. Do you realize that BAC has gotten so many upgrades that my head is gonna spin off if they get any more! And yet the stock is DOWN during that time period and can't bust out. Stock is $12.30 and the other day they got a $22.50 price target. I'm not sure, but I think just about every major brokerage has upgraded them to a buy recently and nothing. That's a dead tired market, folks and we need to respect that. Having said that, we should bounce here today or VERY shortly as fund managers look to buy the dip. We shall see!
RULE!
Waxie
Tuesday, June 09, 2009
Great stuff!
I'll tell ya, out of pain and desperation comes inspiration!
One thing that is very positive about what's going on in the economy is that I am definately getting more ideas from you guys! It is appreciated! Don't ask me about some dumb penny stock, though I own CEGE for the moment (and I do mean moment), in my ten years doing this pretty much if we've had more then 25 or 30 microcaps I'd be surprised. Maybe its a little more then that, but % wise its got to be 1/10th of 1% or less is my best guesstimate!
So, let's stick to what has worked in the past and cull winners from that!
Two emails I got TONIGHT I want to share with you, paraphrasing and pulling excerps from them;
Waxie, Next move UP? You meant down, right? hehe ... Waxie,
Next move UP? You meant down, right? hehe
when Window dressing is over (ie in 3 weeks)
jmo..i think its going to be a TANK-FEST! (only reason i am waiting to go short names like SPG)
but i guess we shall see come July...
alot of stocks that have outperformed the SPY for the qtr, which are also highly owned by the funds (90%)...IE SPG look set up to tank.
but not till June is over
jmo
Ill play the reverse window dressing stronger than the forward trend...
If FDO sells off hard going into the end of june, then id look to get it long on July 1st. (as it has underperformed the SPY) reverse set up from SPG
just curious how YOU are looking at this qtr's Window Dressing, since its the OPPOSITE of the past 2 qtrs, as in this qtr is finally UP, for once.
thanks in advance, I learned Window Dressing from you. So i have already ran my screeners to see
a) what is highly owned by funds
b) what has outperformed SPY, what has underperformed
to play the leaders long before and short after
and the laggards short before and long after
thanks in advance for any Window dressing trends you see probable this QTR.
_____________________________________________________________________________
My answer? #1 thanks for the thoughts! And, #2 I said on FOX Biz last week that I think we see the highs of the year in July. There are a couple of reasons I think that could be right. I think that particularly the financials should do VERY well from this quarters earnings and I think people won't and don't want to miss the potential move higher on good news in that sector. Earnings come in hot and heavy in and through July and it seems unlikely that we'd just tank into that. It has and does happen, but I will be surprised. Plus Tiny thinks S & P sees 1050 to 1150 or even 1200 before we do roll over and tank. So, this seems like a good place for us to go in July. Timing is everything, so we'll see soon enough, but that's my current take.
As far as Window Dressing, I agree with the assessment above to a certain degree, but keep in mind that we do bleed into earnings so I would probably shy away from the earnings plays post Window DRessing and stick with stuff that has already reported, or that reports further in the future. Timing, again, is everything, particularly in trading!
SPG I hate long long term, but it certainly could see $70s even before that happens.Right now futures pointing to another strong open tomorrow, so if that holds we'll bump right into 950 resistence and we'll see if we finally bust that and head to 1000, or just use it as an excuse to sell off again.
The next email I got was about Gold next week. Now I haven't checked into it, but the writer apparently feels strongly that Gold should move up next week and suggests playing NEM and other GOld stocks for just that week (next week). He says its worked great every year since 2001 except 2002.
My take? I have no idea on this "trend". If thats correct and its 7 of 8 that certainly could be a timing/seasonal trend that is worth playing or at least monitoring, but I'll try to check it out and see for myself.
Whether its true or not, I appreciate the thoughts, I have a couple tricks up my sleeve and plan to roll them out shortly! Stay tuned!
As long as you guys and gals are being deliberate and using proper money management and doing your research before diving in, you can come up with ideas, many of you, and come up with potentially money making situations. Well, send me any and all ideas that are reasonable at - waxie@trendfund.com, I'm happy to take a realistic look at them all and if it works will feature them here and perhaps beyond that. Come up with a few and perhaps you'll be working with us at Trendfund.com!
Ya never know! :)
RULE!
Waxie
One thing that is very positive about what's going on in the economy is that I am definately getting more ideas from you guys! It is appreciated! Don't ask me about some dumb penny stock, though I own CEGE for the moment (and I do mean moment), in my ten years doing this pretty much if we've had more then 25 or 30 microcaps I'd be surprised. Maybe its a little more then that, but % wise its got to be 1/10th of 1% or less is my best guesstimate!
So, let's stick to what has worked in the past and cull winners from that!
Two emails I got TONIGHT I want to share with you, paraphrasing and pulling excerps from them;
Waxie, Next move UP? You meant down, right? hehe ... Waxie,
Next move UP? You meant down, right? hehe
when Window dressing is over (ie in 3 weeks)
jmo..i think its going to be a TANK-FEST! (only reason i am waiting to go short names like SPG)
but i guess we shall see come July...
alot of stocks that have outperformed the SPY for the qtr, which are also highly owned by the funds (90%)...IE SPG look set up to tank.
but not till June is over
jmo
Ill play the reverse window dressing stronger than the forward trend...
If FDO sells off hard going into the end of june, then id look to get it long on July 1st. (as it has underperformed the SPY) reverse set up from SPG
just curious how YOU are looking at this qtr's Window Dressing, since its the OPPOSITE of the past 2 qtrs, as in this qtr is finally UP, for once.
thanks in advance, I learned Window Dressing from you. So i have already ran my screeners to see
a) what is highly owned by funds
b) what has outperformed SPY, what has underperformed
to play the leaders long before and short after
and the laggards short before and long after
thanks in advance for any Window dressing trends you see probable this QTR.
_____________________________________________________________________________
My answer? #1 thanks for the thoughts! And, #2 I said on FOX Biz last week that I think we see the highs of the year in July. There are a couple of reasons I think that could be right. I think that particularly the financials should do VERY well from this quarters earnings and I think people won't and don't want to miss the potential move higher on good news in that sector. Earnings come in hot and heavy in and through July and it seems unlikely that we'd just tank into that. It has and does happen, but I will be surprised. Plus Tiny thinks S & P sees 1050 to 1150 or even 1200 before we do roll over and tank. So, this seems like a good place for us to go in July. Timing is everything, so we'll see soon enough, but that's my current take.
As far as Window Dressing, I agree with the assessment above to a certain degree, but keep in mind that we do bleed into earnings so I would probably shy away from the earnings plays post Window DRessing and stick with stuff that has already reported, or that reports further in the future. Timing, again, is everything, particularly in trading!
SPG I hate long long term, but it certainly could see $70s even before that happens.Right now futures pointing to another strong open tomorrow, so if that holds we'll bump right into 950 resistence and we'll see if we finally bust that and head to 1000, or just use it as an excuse to sell off again.
The next email I got was about Gold next week. Now I haven't checked into it, but the writer apparently feels strongly that Gold should move up next week and suggests playing NEM and other GOld stocks for just that week (next week). He says its worked great every year since 2001 except 2002.
My take? I have no idea on this "trend". If thats correct and its 7 of 8 that certainly could be a timing/seasonal trend that is worth playing or at least monitoring, but I'll try to check it out and see for myself.
Whether its true or not, I appreciate the thoughts, I have a couple tricks up my sleeve and plan to roll them out shortly! Stay tuned!
As long as you guys and gals are being deliberate and using proper money management and doing your research before diving in, you can come up with ideas, many of you, and come up with potentially money making situations. Well, send me any and all ideas that are reasonable at - waxie@trendfund.com, I'm happy to take a realistic look at them all and if it works will feature them here and perhaps beyond that. Come up with a few and perhaps you'll be working with us at Trendfund.com!
Ya never know! :)
RULE!
Waxie
MORE FLATLINING...
Wow, we went from the most volatile period in market history to TOTAL flatline! I have officially cut down on my trading both size wise (lot size), and the amount of trades/positions. It's very tough for a trader to navigate this market outside of scalping intraday and waiting patiently for the right time(s) to play breakouts and breakdowns.
Tonight I want to discuss the art of losing, and of moving forward and putting a bad stretch behind you!
I had a couple weeks there where I had losses. Why? Because I overtraded and because I didn't make the proper adjustments. I've discussed this type of thing extensively over the years, but its important to discuss it and learn from losses. There's no shame in losing, its when you don't learn from your mistakes that its all in vain.
It's funny, I know when we hit this kind of stretch that its frustrating to many traders, including at times - ME!
I get emails where people somehow assume I never have a losing day, or week, or even month. I'm a trader, I'm in it for the long run and over the long run I feel I have a TREMENDOUS advantage based on historical patterns, and my own track record and skill level over most traders and almost all investors, but that doesn't mean I am remotely perfect or infallible.
Flatlining is the worst trading for our style of trade, I've done ok scalping some stuff with large lots recently, but that's not the style I prefer. I'm trying to adjust to the market, for now, because our job as traders is to take the candy when the candy basket is passed.
So, what am I trying to say? Well, only that we need to be patient here and pick our spots. I own CLF, I like(d) the way its been trading and if it can break past $31 it looks like it has a lot of upside. I also own CEGE as a speculative small cap, BUT I will say unequivicably that I plan on selling them and trading them on any move, and at any time based on any number of reasons. I'm an active trader when I trade and I monitor my cash balances, risk tolerance and more. I almost sold some CEGE yesterday into the close because it was up so much, but unfortunately held them all. So, we'll see what pans out, it sold off on roughly 1/2 the volume it had yesterday on the buy side day, so I do still think it can see a lot higher, but its just a stock and therefor I have no alligence with or for it.
Tiny said someone told him they were trading off what I say in the blog here. I have to tell you I think that's really foolish. I have no problem discussing things we are in, and things I like, but unless you do your own due diligence and really be comfortable with what you are doing. Plus, you never know when I'm selling something, so if you are strictly following my lead for your own reasons, well, I may be selling when you are buying, or adding when you are selling! So, you really need to have your own trading plan no matter what. Trading involves a great deal of risk, and you could lose your money, so make sure you have a comfort level that you can live with, its your money, we started Trendfund.com to help empower people to do it on their own, that includes learning to earn on your own!
Why am I harping on this? Because people are scared and when people are scared they tend to take risks and often basically gamble in many things they do in order to play catch up, and that includes trading! There is NO RUSH, the market isn't going anywhere fast so why press when you don't have to? This really is a marathon, not a sprint. Make sure you remember that the market is open 5 days a week basically 52 weeks a year. I know I will remember it myself!
I'll also remember that overall in the last few months I've made a helluva lot of money, and I do think that there is going to be a TREMENDOUS opportunity in a few weeks where we'll be able to catch a very nice trend move UP. Yummy for my tummy, and if we're patient, all of ours!
I read today that the math is mind blowing as far as budget deficits and our debt as a nation. These are scary times, lets try to make them as profitable they can be!
RULE!
Waxie
Tonight I want to discuss the art of losing, and of moving forward and putting a bad stretch behind you!
I had a couple weeks there where I had losses. Why? Because I overtraded and because I didn't make the proper adjustments. I've discussed this type of thing extensively over the years, but its important to discuss it and learn from losses. There's no shame in losing, its when you don't learn from your mistakes that its all in vain.
It's funny, I know when we hit this kind of stretch that its frustrating to many traders, including at times - ME!
I get emails where people somehow assume I never have a losing day, or week, or even month. I'm a trader, I'm in it for the long run and over the long run I feel I have a TREMENDOUS advantage based on historical patterns, and my own track record and skill level over most traders and almost all investors, but that doesn't mean I am remotely perfect or infallible.
Flatlining is the worst trading for our style of trade, I've done ok scalping some stuff with large lots recently, but that's not the style I prefer. I'm trying to adjust to the market, for now, because our job as traders is to take the candy when the candy basket is passed.
So, what am I trying to say? Well, only that we need to be patient here and pick our spots. I own CLF, I like(d) the way its been trading and if it can break past $31 it looks like it has a lot of upside. I also own CEGE as a speculative small cap, BUT I will say unequivicably that I plan on selling them and trading them on any move, and at any time based on any number of reasons. I'm an active trader when I trade and I monitor my cash balances, risk tolerance and more. I almost sold some CEGE yesterday into the close because it was up so much, but unfortunately held them all. So, we'll see what pans out, it sold off on roughly 1/2 the volume it had yesterday on the buy side day, so I do still think it can see a lot higher, but its just a stock and therefor I have no alligence with or for it.
Tiny said someone told him they were trading off what I say in the blog here. I have to tell you I think that's really foolish. I have no problem discussing things we are in, and things I like, but unless you do your own due diligence and really be comfortable with what you are doing. Plus, you never know when I'm selling something, so if you are strictly following my lead for your own reasons, well, I may be selling when you are buying, or adding when you are selling! So, you really need to have your own trading plan no matter what. Trading involves a great deal of risk, and you could lose your money, so make sure you have a comfort level that you can live with, its your money, we started Trendfund.com to help empower people to do it on their own, that includes learning to earn on your own!
Why am I harping on this? Because people are scared and when people are scared they tend to take risks and often basically gamble in many things they do in order to play catch up, and that includes trading! There is NO RUSH, the market isn't going anywhere fast so why press when you don't have to? This really is a marathon, not a sprint. Make sure you remember that the market is open 5 days a week basically 52 weeks a year. I know I will remember it myself!
I'll also remember that overall in the last few months I've made a helluva lot of money, and I do think that there is going to be a TREMENDOUS opportunity in a few weeks where we'll be able to catch a very nice trend move UP. Yummy for my tummy, and if we're patient, all of ours!
I read today that the math is mind blowing as far as budget deficits and our debt as a nation. These are scary times, lets try to make them as profitable they can be!
RULE!
Waxie
Saturday, June 06, 2009
More sideways chop...
Friday the market traded in a very narrow range, which lately has been status quo. Volatility has dried up a bit, which is normal in a bullish market. That means we have to adjust our trading schemes.
Its kinda like a boxing match where one guy is throwing haymakers and missing, you have to keep jabbing and moving rather then going toe-to-toe. Taking small gains isn't really my style, but we have to adjust as best we can and some of the trades I'm making are large lots which I'm taking small gains. FAZ, FAS, SRS, SDS all move decently but you aren't going to get $1+ on them 95% of the days either way. And intraday they are providing good scalping opps. Again, that's not our typical style, but that's what this market is offering.
Intermediate term trades remain swinging and getting larger moves if you are on the right side of the trade. Some small caps are just kicking butt.
Also, I've played and called a couple of spec stocks lately, some have paid off handsomely and some don't or haven't moved much. SD = huge winner, TIE = same. We're in CEGE, which I personally own 200,000 shares of, and it's break even basically. Stock has had nice insider buying from multiple execs and owners at higher prices and they are in same sector as DNDN which has been on fire. These small biotechs have been performing very well lately so we should pay attention. I can afford to play a spec stock like this, but key for any trader is risk/reward and money management, so if you don't have excess capital you may want to consider whether you can afford to play a spec stock. CEGE could see $10, but it also could languish for a very long time at $.50 or less if I'm wrong and you just tie up your capital. Remember, we want stocks that move, either way, more then stocks that just hang out and never move.
I've mentioned this before, but seeing Jim Rogers the other day on CNBC say the same thing was great. At the beginning of the year I said DOW should see 5000. We hit 6600, which was very low already, but the caveat was and remains that the Fed keeps printing money and that leads eventually to inflation and eventually leads to higher prices on everything. That includes stocks. Rogers stated he wouldn't short the market because it could go to 20,000 to 30,000. I doubt that, but the reasoning he gave is same as I said, dollar has to weaken at some pt and inflation must creep in long term. Maybe it'll take 1 to 2 years but it'll happen I believe and we can't be the last people to notice. Stocks will go up if the dollar is very weak. I think we will ultimately fall no matter what but short term the FED is propping this market up, not down and we should respect that and go WITH the tape, not against us.
I'm long CEGE, TIE, YHOO and watch RTP, if it can bust and hold $200 it should see $250 in a jiff.
RULE!
Waxie
Its kinda like a boxing match where one guy is throwing haymakers and missing, you have to keep jabbing and moving rather then going toe-to-toe. Taking small gains isn't really my style, but we have to adjust as best we can and some of the trades I'm making are large lots which I'm taking small gains. FAZ, FAS, SRS, SDS all move decently but you aren't going to get $1+ on them 95% of the days either way. And intraday they are providing good scalping opps. Again, that's not our typical style, but that's what this market is offering.
Intermediate term trades remain swinging and getting larger moves if you are on the right side of the trade. Some small caps are just kicking butt.
Also, I've played and called a couple of spec stocks lately, some have paid off handsomely and some don't or haven't moved much. SD = huge winner, TIE = same. We're in CEGE, which I personally own 200,000 shares of, and it's break even basically. Stock has had nice insider buying from multiple execs and owners at higher prices and they are in same sector as DNDN which has been on fire. These small biotechs have been performing very well lately so we should pay attention. I can afford to play a spec stock like this, but key for any trader is risk/reward and money management, so if you don't have excess capital you may want to consider whether you can afford to play a spec stock. CEGE could see $10, but it also could languish for a very long time at $.50 or less if I'm wrong and you just tie up your capital. Remember, we want stocks that move, either way, more then stocks that just hang out and never move.
I've mentioned this before, but seeing Jim Rogers the other day on CNBC say the same thing was great. At the beginning of the year I said DOW should see 5000. We hit 6600, which was very low already, but the caveat was and remains that the Fed keeps printing money and that leads eventually to inflation and eventually leads to higher prices on everything. That includes stocks. Rogers stated he wouldn't short the market because it could go to 20,000 to 30,000. I doubt that, but the reasoning he gave is same as I said, dollar has to weaken at some pt and inflation must creep in long term. Maybe it'll take 1 to 2 years but it'll happen I believe and we can't be the last people to notice. Stocks will go up if the dollar is very weak. I think we will ultimately fall no matter what but short term the FED is propping this market up, not down and we should respect that and go WITH the tape, not against us.
I'm long CEGE, TIE, YHOO and watch RTP, if it can bust and hold $200 it should see $250 in a jiff.
RULE!
Waxie
Thursday, June 04, 2009
MARKET MAYHEM, what goes up MUST come down...or must it?
In a seemingly endless onslaught of up days, its good to refresh one's trading skills and ideas. There's the MARKET and THE market, and they are two very distinct things.
the MARKET is what happens in cycles of the market, its trend and counter trend moves, which often are trends in and of themselves.
THE market is just that THE market, its what happens over longer term intervals and the overall market.
the MARKET just doesn't seem to want to go down these days. I thought we'd have a top at 8500, so clearly I was mistaken. We haven't really been able to break out (yet) much beyond that, but it's tough to keep this puppy down. Every time we think we're gonna roll over and drawdown, we just get bought up again.
The debate usually rages about whether this is a BULL or BEAR market, when in fact its just the MARKET and its amateur hour to call it anything but. Most traders know this, they trade the market as it comes, day to day, week to week or market to market. And, even though they or I may appear on TV and answer such a silly question, we quietly snicker and play along with it. What's it matter? The market right now is and has been buyable on any dips, they never let things fall too far. Many, including me, have made the mistake of trying to pick tops here. It's a losing sum game. The better strategy, as I've discussed many times, is simply to go WITH the MARKET until it goes against you. Until then and for now, we can buy any real pullin. I suspect that into next earnings period in July we will get our HIGH of the year, though who knows, maybe it really is a BULL market and we are zooming to 15,000!
Maybe, but only THE market will tell us longer term.
Watch BAC and GE here, also watch TIE again, they all look like they want to bust out, assuming of course we don't get cracked, which would probably only happen on news at this point.
Tomorrow we have employment #s, market may pull in on a Friday unless they are better then expected, but again, right now they are buying any dip so its hard to have conviction about a pullback, until of course we get one!
I will try to post here more often now, I'll miss a couple days, I'm not doing much at all, but got so many emails I felt I should start posting as best as I can, hopefully thats ok with ya! :)
Michael WAXIE
RULE!!!
the MARKET is what happens in cycles of the market, its trend and counter trend moves, which often are trends in and of themselves.
THE market is just that THE market, its what happens over longer term intervals and the overall market.
the MARKET just doesn't seem to want to go down these days. I thought we'd have a top at 8500, so clearly I was mistaken. We haven't really been able to break out (yet) much beyond that, but it's tough to keep this puppy down. Every time we think we're gonna roll over and drawdown, we just get bought up again.
The debate usually rages about whether this is a BULL or BEAR market, when in fact its just the MARKET and its amateur hour to call it anything but. Most traders know this, they trade the market as it comes, day to day, week to week or market to market. And, even though they or I may appear on TV and answer such a silly question, we quietly snicker and play along with it. What's it matter? The market right now is and has been buyable on any dips, they never let things fall too far. Many, including me, have made the mistake of trying to pick tops here. It's a losing sum game. The better strategy, as I've discussed many times, is simply to go WITH the MARKET until it goes against you. Until then and for now, we can buy any real pullin. I suspect that into next earnings period in July we will get our HIGH of the year, though who knows, maybe it really is a BULL market and we are zooming to 15,000!
Maybe, but only THE market will tell us longer term.
Watch BAC and GE here, also watch TIE again, they all look like they want to bust out, assuming of course we don't get cracked, which would probably only happen on news at this point.
Tomorrow we have employment #s, market may pull in on a Friday unless they are better then expected, but again, right now they are buying any dip so its hard to have conviction about a pullback, until of course we get one!
I will try to post here more often now, I'll miss a couple days, I'm not doing much at all, but got so many emails I felt I should start posting as best as I can, hopefully thats ok with ya! :)
Michael WAXIE
RULE!!!
Monday, May 25, 2009
Sorry...
I'll try to post this week a bit, but I'm taking some time off to heal.
Good luck to all,and remember to trade carefully here, the market is very choppy and trading in a very tight range. I haven't been doing much and don't plan on doing much until I'm fully recovered. Hopefully that will be shortly.
RULE! ANd, rock on!
Waxie
Good luck to all,and remember to trade carefully here, the market is very choppy and trading in a very tight range. I haven't been doing much and don't plan on doing much until I'm fully recovered. Hopefully that will be shortly.
RULE! ANd, rock on!
Waxie
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Here I am...
No, I haven't been given away as part of the TARP program to some banker to be their trading slave!
Market hasn't really done much of anything, and I just wanted to take a few days off before reranting again!
What can I say? Market has stabilized and is treading water, and for the time being we're in a buy the dip kind of mood. It's funny, I was reading some of the dude they call Dr.Doom, Mark Faber and he was talking about the very same thing I've said. At the beginning of the year I said we would see 5000 UNLESS the Fed devalued currency by opening up the printing presses. And, obviously that's exactly what they have done or we would be below 5000 right now. NO question my friends, none at all. We were at 6600 until they decided to start 24/7 printing money.
I am not going to rehash some old issues I have with what's been done, what's done is done. Needless to say, though, I disagree wholeheartedly with the path that the government has gone down. I think it will lead us to a disaster that is unprecedented in our history. I continue to hope I am wrong. What's even more disturbing to me is that it appears that there is just one mass lie being perpetrated. How come all the data keeps pointing to positive things now, while clearly it's just not true. How come the news reports that more Americans say they are thriving when everyone I know is struggling? There is a big disparity between what the media and government is portraying and what reality is. BIG. And, it's quite disturbing and alarming that we are being forcefed such BS.
OK, so what do we do here? Hell if I know! Hehe, sorry dudes and dudesses, I think we just chop around in a range, a tight one for a little bit and then decide which way we go. My guess is down, but I'm certainly not rushing out to short stuff arbitrarily. I'd rather buy dips until proven otherwise. 8500 continues to be the pivot, though, which is what my topside near term target has and remains, so I think we should get a real dip as the next big move. But, again, I think it prudent to let the market tip its hand before making a bit commitment of capital. I'd rather be safe then sorry, in other words!
OK, it's late and that's it, I do like YHOO here, I think before the summer is over MSFT and YHOO are one and the same. We shall see, but I like YHOO here, using $15 as a pivot.
I will try to post tomorrow. Meanwhile, make sure you are trading with discipline and racking up the Ka-chingos!
RULE!
Waxie
Market hasn't really done much of anything, and I just wanted to take a few days off before reranting again!
What can I say? Market has stabilized and is treading water, and for the time being we're in a buy the dip kind of mood. It's funny, I was reading some of the dude they call Dr.Doom, Mark Faber and he was talking about the very same thing I've said. At the beginning of the year I said we would see 5000 UNLESS the Fed devalued currency by opening up the printing presses. And, obviously that's exactly what they have done or we would be below 5000 right now. NO question my friends, none at all. We were at 6600 until they decided to start 24/7 printing money.
I am not going to rehash some old issues I have with what's been done, what's done is done. Needless to say, though, I disagree wholeheartedly with the path that the government has gone down. I think it will lead us to a disaster that is unprecedented in our history. I continue to hope I am wrong. What's even more disturbing to me is that it appears that there is just one mass lie being perpetrated. How come all the data keeps pointing to positive things now, while clearly it's just not true. How come the news reports that more Americans say they are thriving when everyone I know is struggling? There is a big disparity between what the media and government is portraying and what reality is. BIG. And, it's quite disturbing and alarming that we are being forcefed such BS.
OK, so what do we do here? Hell if I know! Hehe, sorry dudes and dudesses, I think we just chop around in a range, a tight one for a little bit and then decide which way we go. My guess is down, but I'm certainly not rushing out to short stuff arbitrarily. I'd rather buy dips until proven otherwise. 8500 continues to be the pivot, though, which is what my topside near term target has and remains, so I think we should get a real dip as the next big move. But, again, I think it prudent to let the market tip its hand before making a bit commitment of capital. I'd rather be safe then sorry, in other words!
OK, it's late and that's it, I do like YHOO here, I think before the summer is over MSFT and YHOO are one and the same. We shall see, but I like YHOO here, using $15 as a pivot.
I will try to post tomorrow. Meanwhile, make sure you are trading with discipline and racking up the Ka-chingos!
RULE!
Waxie
Monday, May 11, 2009
Turnaround Tuesday?
Well, we had a one week repreive last week where we went up Monday. Other then that we've been going down nearly every Monday, even in this rally, only to reverse Tuesday.
Good shot we get same reversal action today/Tuesday, though not sure about anything here this second, we are really iffy either way. I think we might get another push higher here or before next week up to the 940s to 950s area and if that happens I think we'll get a decent wash. Monday we saw the market gap down and bounce on a nice gap bounce and then roll over again to finish near the lows after Meredith Whitney reiterated the obvious, the banks are absurdly priced and have no real way to sustain these levels longer term. While its impossible just to arbitrarily short and pick tops, I don't think you can do much of anything but trade here either way until we get a clear move up or down. I would lean short, but again, I think good shot we get another push higher before a real roll over of any magnitude. When in doubt, just stay out is always my motto.
In the meantime, we shall just have to see what shakes out. It's days/moments like these when things aren't clear that you have to protect your capital at all costs. Worst thing to do is take trades you are iffy on just to trade. Better to be patient and wait for the market to tip its hand.
Market has rallied very hard very fast. Its interesting, though, because the selloff Monday was on really light volume, so its not like people are in a rush to sell here and cash out. So, again, we're just in an iffy space and patience is key. Very very key.
That's all I have to say, I'm beat and hitting the hay!
RULE!
Waxie
Good shot we get same reversal action today/Tuesday, though not sure about anything here this second, we are really iffy either way. I think we might get another push higher here or before next week up to the 940s to 950s area and if that happens I think we'll get a decent wash. Monday we saw the market gap down and bounce on a nice gap bounce and then roll over again to finish near the lows after Meredith Whitney reiterated the obvious, the banks are absurdly priced and have no real way to sustain these levels longer term. While its impossible just to arbitrarily short and pick tops, I don't think you can do much of anything but trade here either way until we get a clear move up or down. I would lean short, but again, I think good shot we get another push higher before a real roll over of any magnitude. When in doubt, just stay out is always my motto.
In the meantime, we shall just have to see what shakes out. It's days/moments like these when things aren't clear that you have to protect your capital at all costs. Worst thing to do is take trades you are iffy on just to trade. Better to be patient and wait for the market to tip its hand.
Market has rallied very hard very fast. Its interesting, though, because the selloff Monday was on really light volume, so its not like people are in a rush to sell here and cash out. So, again, we're just in an iffy space and patience is key. Very very key.
That's all I have to say, I'm beat and hitting the hay!
RULE!
Waxie
Saturday, May 09, 2009
The fix is in...and I want a piece!
I have to say, this is the craziest market EVER. I've discussed ad nuseum about how the govt is puppet master, and we are seeing what I believe will go down in history as the single sickest and dumbest time period ever economically, or the most brilliant steering out of a crisis ever in the history of mankind.
If I had to bet, it would obviously be the latter, I just don't think anything they are saying is real. Everywhere I go and everyone I talk to in the real world it's the same story of blight and despair pretty much. The notion that things are stabilizing is pure fiction in my opinion, and a mass manipulation and propaganda to give people false hope.
It's sad, truly.
Having said that, this is without a doubt the best trading market since 1999/2000, and in some ways its even better then that! Why? Because as long as you don't get stubborn you almost have to make money. The only times I"ve lost really in the last 6 months are when I get stubborn and just ride a loser longer then I should have, or had too much of a bias one way or another. This rally I mised the middlye of it, I just didn't think we could go as far as we have, as fast as we have. I did call the bottom to the day pretty much, but I hopped off long ago and fought the tape for a while and it cost me. Now I am high of year easily and knock on wood am ROCKING beyond belief. We have been ON FIRE with Options Trader, FIRE!
This week is options expiration, we are so vastly overbought, so its anyones guess as to which way we go. I trust I'll trade out of it either way and into profits!
I think financials either get a huge breakout move, or we do pull in. I'll stay neutral with a bias to buy buy buy. Remember, the Fed isn't going to let us die 1000 points so fast, they will try to inject whatever is needed to prop us up again. It's quite insane, but it is what it is and thats all we can deal with.
So, keep going WITH the flow and not against it. In this tape that will make you money, as long as you stop out quickly when you are wrong and feel so strongly!
RULE!
Waxie
If I had to bet, it would obviously be the latter, I just don't think anything they are saying is real. Everywhere I go and everyone I talk to in the real world it's the same story of blight and despair pretty much. The notion that things are stabilizing is pure fiction in my opinion, and a mass manipulation and propaganda to give people false hope.
It's sad, truly.
Having said that, this is without a doubt the best trading market since 1999/2000, and in some ways its even better then that! Why? Because as long as you don't get stubborn you almost have to make money. The only times I"ve lost really in the last 6 months are when I get stubborn and just ride a loser longer then I should have, or had too much of a bias one way or another. This rally I mised the middlye of it, I just didn't think we could go as far as we have, as fast as we have. I did call the bottom to the day pretty much, but I hopped off long ago and fought the tape for a while and it cost me. Now I am high of year easily and knock on wood am ROCKING beyond belief. We have been ON FIRE with Options Trader, FIRE!
This week is options expiration, we are so vastly overbought, so its anyones guess as to which way we go. I trust I'll trade out of it either way and into profits!
I think financials either get a huge breakout move, or we do pull in. I'll stay neutral with a bias to buy buy buy. Remember, the Fed isn't going to let us die 1000 points so fast, they will try to inject whatever is needed to prop us up again. It's quite insane, but it is what it is and thats all we can deal with.
So, keep going WITH the flow and not against it. In this tape that will make you money, as long as you stop out quickly when you are wrong and feel so strongly!
RULE!
Waxie
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
STRESS TESTS, and a BIG shout out to the Feds, baby!
First off, I want to give a shout out to Timothy G, Ben B, and the big man himself - B.O.!
ROCK on, my brothers, rock on! I am making a mint, and we are just smokin' cause you rigged the markets! SWEET!
I sincerely hope we get the DOW to 25,000 cause that'll be awesome!
Now, some of you will say that I am being sarcastic, and to an extent that's true. I mean, as a citizen I am appalled by what's going on. It's a total joke. I love how every economist worth a dime says that the banking system is busted out, but we ran "stress tests" and we need less then $60 BIL to fix things! Awesome! The idea behind these stupid tests was/is that they will instill confidence and thus attract private investors to help them raise enough capital to "pass" these tests and continue to stay non-nationalized. The problem is, I really don't think anyone who is operating on their own, without government manipulation, would possibly look at these tests and take them seriously.
I had an attorney who once told me that there are things she can't say to a judge because they wouldn't pass the "laugh" test/meter. Citibank is apparently low man on the totem pole, they only need $5 BILLION. Seriously, that's so far out of touch with reality, even a numbskull like me reading a balance sheet can see that they have a gazillion (roughly a trillion it appears) of bad debt on their books that at some point has to be dealt with. So, the government is saying that with $5 BIL, if people started to pull their savings and accounts out in droves that C would be solvent? Be real, that definately does NOT pass the laugh test! That's ridiculous beyond belief! Hehe. How can they even say that with a straight face.
I will say that if that is the case, then C at under $4 is quite possibly the best stock BUY I have ever seen in all my years doing this. If I believed that I would buy as many shares as I possibly could and become an investor. C would be worth AT LEAST 25 to $35 a share. AT LEAST, if that were the case. C might trade a lot higher on this news, it'll be interesting to see. I'm torn here, as a semi-smart guy I am just sickened by this whole thing, as a trader I am very happy the govt did what they did, it just created another bubble that we can trade both up, and then back down, or partly down, and then up and then down again.
As a trader I can't fight this move, but I will stay on watch for a very near term top here. I've said it before, you need to ride these kinds of trendy moves, you can't try to pick tops any more then you can try to pick bottoms and catch falling knives.
We have a very big "buy the rumor, sell the news" trend here with results of these absurd tests be to released after the close Thurday/today. We've run into the news, as I said we would, so typically it would be an automatic to just short the actual news, and I may do so VERY VERY SMALL. Having said that, I am most likely to cash out my longs and be cash rich and then see what the market wants to do here and into next week. Thing is, even if these tests were really worth something, many of these banks are still way overbought. WFC was in the $40s at its PEAK, its now nearing $30s. Does ANYONE really feel that WFC is worth and should be trading near its HIGHS? Should it be trading as though nothing was or is wrong? I think anyone buying these things here is just asking for a smack down, whether it happens right away, or whether it takes a few months. It's just not possible that this is the end of the banking crisis and we have the all clear to invest signal. So, again, while I am not ready to just start shorting, I am ready to go to cash mostly and perhaps start legging into a couple of short positions in financials post stress test results. Best setup for that would be if we run again tomorrow into the close, and then get good stress test results and then we gap up big on Friday. That would be a good entry to the short side for sure for at least a poke/trade with TIGHT STOPS in case they decide to just squeeze us into infinity for the time being.
I've been swamped with emails asking when we can buy FAZ and SRS. Listen, again, folks, I've said it all along, you can not pick tops! There is only one TOP to a move like this, I think its upcoming here maybe as soon as tomorrow on a sell the news, but while there are only one top, there are usually many moves up til that point. Trying to fight the tape is a good way to kill your account. Going WITH the trend usually ends up paying off! DOn't be in such a rush to lose your money!
You want to TRY to catch a top? FAZ under $5 for a swing SMALL would be one way to try, there are a lot of reasons why this MIGHT be a short/near term top. If you use tight stops you won't have to worry about where to try to catch the top or go long FAZ and SRS. RISK/REWARD is all you should worry about, for those of you who emailed me and told me you were going long FAZ at $25, then $20, then $15, then $10 and now $5, you will be right soon, but you've been wrong all along and gotten crushed. Go WITH the market! Not against it!
RULE!
Waxie
ROCK on, my brothers, rock on! I am making a mint, and we are just smokin' cause you rigged the markets! SWEET!
I sincerely hope we get the DOW to 25,000 cause that'll be awesome!
Now, some of you will say that I am being sarcastic, and to an extent that's true. I mean, as a citizen I am appalled by what's going on. It's a total joke. I love how every economist worth a dime says that the banking system is busted out, but we ran "stress tests" and we need less then $60 BIL to fix things! Awesome! The idea behind these stupid tests was/is that they will instill confidence and thus attract private investors to help them raise enough capital to "pass" these tests and continue to stay non-nationalized. The problem is, I really don't think anyone who is operating on their own, without government manipulation, would possibly look at these tests and take them seriously.
I had an attorney who once told me that there are things she can't say to a judge because they wouldn't pass the "laugh" test/meter. Citibank is apparently low man on the totem pole, they only need $5 BILLION. Seriously, that's so far out of touch with reality, even a numbskull like me reading a balance sheet can see that they have a gazillion (roughly a trillion it appears) of bad debt on their books that at some point has to be dealt with. So, the government is saying that with $5 BIL, if people started to pull their savings and accounts out in droves that C would be solvent? Be real, that definately does NOT pass the laugh test! That's ridiculous beyond belief! Hehe. How can they even say that with a straight face.
I will say that if that is the case, then C at under $4 is quite possibly the best stock BUY I have ever seen in all my years doing this. If I believed that I would buy as many shares as I possibly could and become an investor. C would be worth AT LEAST 25 to $35 a share. AT LEAST, if that were the case. C might trade a lot higher on this news, it'll be interesting to see. I'm torn here, as a semi-smart guy I am just sickened by this whole thing, as a trader I am very happy the govt did what they did, it just created another bubble that we can trade both up, and then back down, or partly down, and then up and then down again.
As a trader I can't fight this move, but I will stay on watch for a very near term top here. I've said it before, you need to ride these kinds of trendy moves, you can't try to pick tops any more then you can try to pick bottoms and catch falling knives.
We have a very big "buy the rumor, sell the news" trend here with results of these absurd tests be to released after the close Thurday/today. We've run into the news, as I said we would, so typically it would be an automatic to just short the actual news, and I may do so VERY VERY SMALL. Having said that, I am most likely to cash out my longs and be cash rich and then see what the market wants to do here and into next week. Thing is, even if these tests were really worth something, many of these banks are still way overbought. WFC was in the $40s at its PEAK, its now nearing $30s. Does ANYONE really feel that WFC is worth and should be trading near its HIGHS? Should it be trading as though nothing was or is wrong? I think anyone buying these things here is just asking for a smack down, whether it happens right away, or whether it takes a few months. It's just not possible that this is the end of the banking crisis and we have the all clear to invest signal. So, again, while I am not ready to just start shorting, I am ready to go to cash mostly and perhaps start legging into a couple of short positions in financials post stress test results. Best setup for that would be if we run again tomorrow into the close, and then get good stress test results and then we gap up big on Friday. That would be a good entry to the short side for sure for at least a poke/trade with TIGHT STOPS in case they decide to just squeeze us into infinity for the time being.
I've been swamped with emails asking when we can buy FAZ and SRS. Listen, again, folks, I've said it all along, you can not pick tops! There is only one TOP to a move like this, I think its upcoming here maybe as soon as tomorrow on a sell the news, but while there are only one top, there are usually many moves up til that point. Trying to fight the tape is a good way to kill your account. Going WITH the trend usually ends up paying off! DOn't be in such a rush to lose your money!
You want to TRY to catch a top? FAZ under $5 for a swing SMALL would be one way to try, there are a lot of reasons why this MIGHT be a short/near term top. If you use tight stops you won't have to worry about where to try to catch the top or go long FAZ and SRS. RISK/REWARD is all you should worry about, for those of you who emailed me and told me you were going long FAZ at $25, then $20, then $15, then $10 and now $5, you will be right soon, but you've been wrong all along and gotten crushed. Go WITH the market! Not against it!
RULE!
Waxie
Monday, May 04, 2009
Turnaround Tuesday?
OK, so for the last few weeks we lost ground (at least 1 to 2%) on Monday and then turned around on Tuesday and went higher. Now that we went up 3%ish on Monday, do we reverse trends and go DOWN Tuesday? Probably so...but we'll see.
Market busted through S & P 900 like it was butter pretty much. A very bullish, very trendy day as the market just powered higher and higher into the close. Any pullback was bought with both fists.
We have come a long way in a very short time. While we are tremendously overbought, it is very bad trading form to try to pick tops, so I'm not about to, but if we gap up I think its an automatic short and if we gap down I would buy it, but on any rush I would look and use the 10 am rule for guidance. The question remains, are the bulls bullish enough to continue to buy right into and through the stress test results? We have a very small gap down here as I write this, showing the bullish bias is probably not ready to go down so easily. Remember that any decent drawdown funds are dying to get in here, so this market currently has a nice floor under it.
I want you all to think about stopping to try to pick a top. I've gotten so many emails asking the same silly question "when should I buy SRS and SKF!"
Just remember, while you are trying to pick a top, we've been ROCKING on the long side. Why are you so hungry to go short? Seriously. I'm definately bearish long term, trust me, but I'm a TRADER day to day, I could care less where we go, as long as I'm on the right side of the trade! Stop asking me dumb questions about when you should short the market, chances are you aren't going to pick the exact top and you'll get stopped out anyway, and even if you catch a good trade, you'll get greedy with that head space and when we repop, which we will, you will get crushed more than likely.
Go WITH the market. I would not be looking for places to short the market here, other than on gap ups or on a day like Tuesday POTENTIALLY as described above, but right now if you are thinking about swinings shorts for long periods, well, G-d bless you, you are a braver man than I am! Sorry, I'm not answering these foolish questions, so just stop asking. TRADE the freakin' market, don't try to pick tops or bottoms! Trust me, you'll make out a LOT better that way then trying to catch falling knives or rising ones as well!
I have a lot to say, but I am very tired, so going to bed. Watch GE for a break if it can hold $13 here it should see $15 near term. We'll see soon enough!
RULE!
Waxie
Market busted through S & P 900 like it was butter pretty much. A very bullish, very trendy day as the market just powered higher and higher into the close. Any pullback was bought with both fists.
We have come a long way in a very short time. While we are tremendously overbought, it is very bad trading form to try to pick tops, so I'm not about to, but if we gap up I think its an automatic short and if we gap down I would buy it, but on any rush I would look and use the 10 am rule for guidance. The question remains, are the bulls bullish enough to continue to buy right into and through the stress test results? We have a very small gap down here as I write this, showing the bullish bias is probably not ready to go down so easily. Remember that any decent drawdown funds are dying to get in here, so this market currently has a nice floor under it.
I want you all to think about stopping to try to pick a top. I've gotten so many emails asking the same silly question "when should I buy SRS and SKF!"
Just remember, while you are trying to pick a top, we've been ROCKING on the long side. Why are you so hungry to go short? Seriously. I'm definately bearish long term, trust me, but I'm a TRADER day to day, I could care less where we go, as long as I'm on the right side of the trade! Stop asking me dumb questions about when you should short the market, chances are you aren't going to pick the exact top and you'll get stopped out anyway, and even if you catch a good trade, you'll get greedy with that head space and when we repop, which we will, you will get crushed more than likely.
Go WITH the market. I would not be looking for places to short the market here, other than on gap ups or on a day like Tuesday POTENTIALLY as described above, but right now if you are thinking about swinings shorts for long periods, well, G-d bless you, you are a braver man than I am! Sorry, I'm not answering these foolish questions, so just stop asking. TRADE the freakin' market, don't try to pick tops or bottoms! Trust me, you'll make out a LOT better that way then trying to catch falling knives or rising ones as well!
I have a lot to say, but I am very tired, so going to bed. Watch GE for a break if it can hold $13 here it should see $15 near term. We'll see soon enough!
RULE!
Waxie
Thursday, April 30, 2009
EVIL HEDGE FUNDS!!!!
News flash, evil hedge funds wouldn't play ball with government! Wowsa, we are heading down a very dangerous path (yeah,I know, we already have). Is there such a thing as Liberal Conservatism? It's quite amazing, it reminds me of that Star Trek episode where the Star Fleet guy is sent down to observe and he gets involved and they end up moving toward an ultra conservative nation. (I won't mention the name because I can't compare most anything to that period of time). I understand the move toward socialism. I mean, whether you agree or not, that's what we voted for as a country. Obama didn't hide his leanings. However, this constant ripping of anything capitalistic is absurd, and will backfire. Hedge Funds aren't evil (well, most of them aren't). Most hedge funds are just trying to find good deals just like everyone else who invests. Just because the government wants to put Chrysler into bankruptcy (it's ironic because Chrysler should have been buried 30 years ago but the govt intervened to save them, bad history does indeed repeat itself) doesn't mean that INVESTORS should buckle and lose money. If that's the case then why does the government keep manipulating the market to drive it higher artificially? Is there justice in GS being $130 a share but no one says a word about them stealing $18 BILLION from taxpayers? Or JPM being $33 a share despite abusing their powers and taking advantage of the government knuckleheads who spearheaded these forced deals?
How come Jamie Diamond is allowed to make millions and millions or Lyold Blankstein, or a dozen other HEDGE FUNDS masquarading as public companies? Please, give me a break with the hypocresy already. What a joke this whole thing is. A total total joke. They play high and mighty and just use black mail tactics to force their will on whatever and whomever they want. I'm very disturbed about the policy shifts we have in this country, and I don't mean from a party standpoint. As far as I'm concerned they are both knuckleheads. They all are. They have no clue about what they are doing and every two seconds they say the whole system is on the verge of crumbling and yet the market powers higher and higher, its pretty funny when you think about it. I stated yesterday that the GAPS were rocking and today while we held up well initially we eventually went nicely red, a 150+ point reversal off the open. WE had a VERY nice day, caught PCLN and FAZ (sweet) and we sold our calls - DIS, PRU, ATVI, etc. for huge gains, so I'm very happy. I had a very nice day as well.
Friday if we gap UP its a total gimme as far as I am concerned, just fade it and collect at the window, its a done deal. I suspect we'll get more of a flat open which is much tougher to play. A gap down should be fadeable, though I'd be less confident for anything more than a gap fill or so. Market is vastly overbought, that doesn't mean we can't go up a lot more, we may, but we are anemic volume wise to the buy side and that indicates that momentum may be switching sides. May 4th is a big day and I think we'll get a very nice trade early next week into the stress tests. So, BE PATIENT here, no need to rush a thing. Just pick your spots and you can ROCK!
I'll talk about next week over the weekend. Oh, for those of you Beta Testing the TREND CRUSHER software, please respond to Michael HOnig, we need some feedback on the product that we are rolling out VERY soon! its - boogedyshu@aol.com, Michael HOnig.
BTW, I don't have Swine Flu, just run down a bit apparently, so that's good. In the meantime, Friday we may chop around a lot, remember - DO NOT OVERTRADE!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
How come Jamie Diamond is allowed to make millions and millions or Lyold Blankstein, or a dozen other HEDGE FUNDS masquarading as public companies? Please, give me a break with the hypocresy already. What a joke this whole thing is. A total total joke. They play high and mighty and just use black mail tactics to force their will on whatever and whomever they want. I'm very disturbed about the policy shifts we have in this country, and I don't mean from a party standpoint. As far as I'm concerned they are both knuckleheads. They all are. They have no clue about what they are doing and every two seconds they say the whole system is on the verge of crumbling and yet the market powers higher and higher, its pretty funny when you think about it. I stated yesterday that the GAPS were rocking and today while we held up well initially we eventually went nicely red, a 150+ point reversal off the open. WE had a VERY nice day, caught PCLN and FAZ (sweet) and we sold our calls - DIS, PRU, ATVI, etc. for huge gains, so I'm very happy. I had a very nice day as well.
Friday if we gap UP its a total gimme as far as I am concerned, just fade it and collect at the window, its a done deal. I suspect we'll get more of a flat open which is much tougher to play. A gap down should be fadeable, though I'd be less confident for anything more than a gap fill or so. Market is vastly overbought, that doesn't mean we can't go up a lot more, we may, but we are anemic volume wise to the buy side and that indicates that momentum may be switching sides. May 4th is a big day and I think we'll get a very nice trade early next week into the stress tests. So, BE PATIENT here, no need to rush a thing. Just pick your spots and you can ROCK!
I'll talk about next week over the weekend. Oh, for those of you Beta Testing the TREND CRUSHER software, please respond to Michael HOnig, we need some feedback on the product that we are rolling out VERY soon! its - boogedyshu@aol.com, Michael HOnig.
BTW, I don't have Swine Flu, just run down a bit apparently, so that's good. In the meantime, Friday we may chop around a lot, remember - DO NOT OVERTRADE!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Yo Yo Yo Yo...
Have you seen the move this market has made since March? WOWSA! Very impressive indeed!
We continue to power higher and higher through this earnings period. I pointed out the insurance companies the other day and last week, they should continue to move higher here into earnings.
GAPS have been GOLDEN here, folks, and they are the easiest trade there is. You should all be playing them. We also had the famous FOMC trade whereby we always run into the FOMC meeting. We powered higher into it, faded, then repowered and then rolled over a bit into the close. It's interesting that we've had that happen a few times lately where very late day they roll us over as though people are still scared to hold longs overnight.
It'll be an easy fade if we gap down tomorrow. A gap up is tougher and could lead to some profit taking early on. We look destined for 900s on the S & P now for sure and my 8500 target lives on. You just can't fight this tape, there are buyers all around and stubborn shorts are getting CRUSHED beyond belief.
I'm feeling a tad better, but will be VERY happy when I am fully recovered. I feel like someone is using me as an experiment, hehe. It's all good, or so they say. Whatever don't kill ya makes you stronger. Same holds true for trading, whatever losses make you stronger as long as you LEARN From your mistakes and don't make them fatal and wipe yourself out!
Futures are up here, but its early. Remember that FOMC usually produces some trend days and weeks post it. So, tomorrow's action should give us some insight into near term trading. Watch individual names and check your earnings calendar. Again, its been golden. No one wants to be short stuff into earnings, everything right now is going up no matter what. Next week's earnings plays are this weeks pickups. It's kinda like Fantasy Baseball when you pick up the two-start pitchers, you want to be in them here now, before everyone else piles in. We are in PRU, which reports May 6th and already up decently. I think $35 to $40 is doable if the market holds up on PRU. Stops under $25 as thats strong support now.
May 4th stress test. I think we should run the banks into that, but honestly it's a 50/50 crap shoot here, with a lean toward up only because you have to lean that way in this tape.
I got my car back from the accident and had to give it back to the shop 4 timse now for different things. I tell ya, what a racket, they charged the insurance company $42,000 on a $60,000s car! I mean, I wanted them to total it, you just know there's no way this thing is going to be ok. It could be worse, if I wasn't in an SUV I probably would be a vegetable now, or 6 feet under. Who says SUV's are so bad? Not I, babies, not I. At least not any more.
Keep the faith, it's all good.
We are setting a date for a HUGE - OPTIONS MASTER seminar shortly. It'll be me, Tiny and Scott and a full day of classes with 1 or 2 live options trading days and a list of some TOP options plays. Price has not been completely set, but figure $1495 with a discount to high plan members to $995. If you're interested shoot me an email - waxie@trendfund.com, I'll post final details here shortly, stay tuned!
Here it is, in summary;
Saturday - (May 23rd is tentative date) Full day options, soup to nuts
- 11 am to noon - Intro to Options
- Noon to 1:00 - Intermediate Options
-1:00 to 2:30 - Using Technical Analysis to Swing Options
-2:30 to 4:00 - Using Trends to play Options
-4:00 to 5:30 - Advanced Options Strategies and analysis
-5:30 to 7:00 - Credit and Debit Spreads
Monday, May 25th is tentative date
ALL DAY Trading solely options (there are no guarantees on how many setups there will be obviously)
Monday evening - Wrapup for 1 1/2 hours 4 to 5:30
FYI - we will be teaching CREDIT and DEBIT Spreads for the 1st time. In fact, there are a couple of places that charge $30 to $50,000 *yes, $50,000* for this type of class. It'll be limited, so if you are interested get with me ASAP.
As I finish this up futures are taking off, we're over strong resistence at 875.00 on the S & P futures. If we hold that over next few days we'll see 900 in a jiff. Next after that would be maybe 925 to 940. We are skyrockets in flight, afternoon delight at this point, so enjoy it while it lasts!
These are strange times, indeed. From 6600 to 8500 in a few weeks, I bet there are a lot of investors kicking themselves. More than a few!
See ya on the other side,
RULE!
Waxie
We continue to power higher and higher through this earnings period. I pointed out the insurance companies the other day and last week, they should continue to move higher here into earnings.
GAPS have been GOLDEN here, folks, and they are the easiest trade there is. You should all be playing them. We also had the famous FOMC trade whereby we always run into the FOMC meeting. We powered higher into it, faded, then repowered and then rolled over a bit into the close. It's interesting that we've had that happen a few times lately where very late day they roll us over as though people are still scared to hold longs overnight.
It'll be an easy fade if we gap down tomorrow. A gap up is tougher and could lead to some profit taking early on. We look destined for 900s on the S & P now for sure and my 8500 target lives on. You just can't fight this tape, there are buyers all around and stubborn shorts are getting CRUSHED beyond belief.
I'm feeling a tad better, but will be VERY happy when I am fully recovered. I feel like someone is using me as an experiment, hehe. It's all good, or so they say. Whatever don't kill ya makes you stronger. Same holds true for trading, whatever losses make you stronger as long as you LEARN From your mistakes and don't make them fatal and wipe yourself out!
Futures are up here, but its early. Remember that FOMC usually produces some trend days and weeks post it. So, tomorrow's action should give us some insight into near term trading. Watch individual names and check your earnings calendar. Again, its been golden. No one wants to be short stuff into earnings, everything right now is going up no matter what. Next week's earnings plays are this weeks pickups. It's kinda like Fantasy Baseball when you pick up the two-start pitchers, you want to be in them here now, before everyone else piles in. We are in PRU, which reports May 6th and already up decently. I think $35 to $40 is doable if the market holds up on PRU. Stops under $25 as thats strong support now.
May 4th stress test. I think we should run the banks into that, but honestly it's a 50/50 crap shoot here, with a lean toward up only because you have to lean that way in this tape.
I got my car back from the accident and had to give it back to the shop 4 timse now for different things. I tell ya, what a racket, they charged the insurance company $42,000 on a $60,000s car! I mean, I wanted them to total it, you just know there's no way this thing is going to be ok. It could be worse, if I wasn't in an SUV I probably would be a vegetable now, or 6 feet under. Who says SUV's are so bad? Not I, babies, not I. At least not any more.
Keep the faith, it's all good.
We are setting a date for a HUGE - OPTIONS MASTER seminar shortly. It'll be me, Tiny and Scott and a full day of classes with 1 or 2 live options trading days and a list of some TOP options plays. Price has not been completely set, but figure $1495 with a discount to high plan members to $995. If you're interested shoot me an email - waxie@trendfund.com, I'll post final details here shortly, stay tuned!
Here it is, in summary;
Saturday - (May 23rd is tentative date) Full day options, soup to nuts
- 11 am to noon - Intro to Options
- Noon to 1:00 - Intermediate Options
-1:00 to 2:30 - Using Technical Analysis to Swing Options
-2:30 to 4:00 - Using Trends to play Options
-4:00 to 5:30 - Advanced Options Strategies and analysis
-5:30 to 7:00 - Credit and Debit Spreads
Monday, May 25th is tentative date
ALL DAY Trading solely options (there are no guarantees on how many setups there will be obviously)
Monday evening - Wrapup for 1 1/2 hours 4 to 5:30
FYI - we will be teaching CREDIT and DEBIT Spreads for the 1st time. In fact, there are a couple of places that charge $30 to $50,000 *yes, $50,000* for this type of class. It'll be limited, so if you are interested get with me ASAP.
As I finish this up futures are taking off, we're over strong resistence at 875.00 on the S & P futures. If we hold that over next few days we'll see 900 in a jiff. Next after that would be maybe 925 to 940. We are skyrockets in flight, afternoon delight at this point, so enjoy it while it lasts!
These are strange times, indeed. From 6600 to 8500 in a few weeks, I bet there are a lot of investors kicking themselves. More than a few!
See ya on the other side,
RULE!
Waxie
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