I have to say, this is the craziest market EVER. I've discussed ad nuseum about how the govt is puppet master, and we are seeing what I believe will go down in history as the single sickest and dumbest time period ever economically, or the most brilliant steering out of a crisis ever in the history of mankind.
If I had to bet, it would obviously be the latter, I just don't think anything they are saying is real. Everywhere I go and everyone I talk to in the real world it's the same story of blight and despair pretty much. The notion that things are stabilizing is pure fiction in my opinion, and a mass manipulation and propaganda to give people false hope.
It's sad, truly.
Having said that, this is without a doubt the best trading market since 1999/2000, and in some ways its even better then that! Why? Because as long as you don't get stubborn you almost have to make money. The only times I"ve lost really in the last 6 months are when I get stubborn and just ride a loser longer then I should have, or had too much of a bias one way or another. This rally I mised the middlye of it, I just didn't think we could go as far as we have, as fast as we have. I did call the bottom to the day pretty much, but I hopped off long ago and fought the tape for a while and it cost me. Now I am high of year easily and knock on wood am ROCKING beyond belief. We have been ON FIRE with Options Trader, FIRE!
This week is options expiration, we are so vastly overbought, so its anyones guess as to which way we go. I trust I'll trade out of it either way and into profits!
I think financials either get a huge breakout move, or we do pull in. I'll stay neutral with a bias to buy buy buy. Remember, the Fed isn't going to let us die 1000 points so fast, they will try to inject whatever is needed to prop us up again. It's quite insane, but it is what it is and thats all we can deal with.
So, keep going WITH the flow and not against it. In this tape that will make you money, as long as you stop out quickly when you are wrong and feel so strongly!
RULE!
Waxie
3 comments:
I think whats happening is that the govt believes the banks can earn there way out of the losses, so they lie to us to make us believe the banks actually solvent(when in about 100 trillion in debt)...I believe we are seeing the beginning of one of the biggest stock market bubbles in U.S. market history... You are right, this will end very badly...BUT, as traders...we need to be there before the fallout, short the market, buy puts on everything, and then retire when its over! Will all be millionaires by the time its over...
I see DOW below 4000 ultimately. The higher we go, the harder were going to fall.
Waxie,
I'd like to wish you a happy mother's day. I hope that everything went well for you. I know how important mothers are to you. As they should be, but in your particular instance, I know that they are extra special. ESPECIALLY single mothers.
I am assuming that you likely meant to write "the former" rather than "the latter" early on in your post.
I realize that it is easy to create a conspiracy for things that do not make sense. Not that I do not agree with you saying, not in so many words, the government is cooking the books....so to speak.
I would say that there are probably secondary or tertiary indicators that would indicate certain things about the economy. For example, if they were cooking the books on unemployment, you could probably turn to indications from ADP...or do you think that they are in with the government with this conspiracy?
Things like reports from Mastercard gas purchases would also be good indications. Even though there has been, I am assuming, a shift in the way people make purchases, I would think that this would still be a good indicator.
I also get a sense that the government is trying to make things appear as normal as possible. I don't blame them....except when it comes to having to lie to do it.
Also, I hear you saying things like "stubborn" , "fighting the tape" etc. You, clearly, have your finger on the pulse of the market more so than most. I see that you use human psychology to determine direction. Whether it be via pure psyche or regular trading trends that the "sheeple" (for lack of a better term) will follow.
I recall a few months ago you said things that violated basic trends...Why would you fight the fed? It especially holds true if you re-write that trend to say, "Do not fight the fed, especially if has the backing and power of the United States government." ;-)
In an economy that gets pumped with trillions of dollars, and that's arguable, and I realize that it may not be the right thing to do, you can't assume that there won't be some type of huge bounce to 9999 on the DOW from it.
Hope, being false or illusion, is still hope. Whatever glimmer of it the "sheeple" see is enough to move a market. Then, it is followed by those who do not want to miss the boat...And that's who is getting in now. Is there another wave? I would say yes if the timing is right.
I would like to offer some things for your consideration.
With the way things are today...masses turning to the internet for information, networking via facebook, twitter, blogs, monster dot you know what, yehaw jobs, the information age...Wouldn't you think that the turmoil in the economy that would have normally lasted 5-10 years will be shortened? Had this happened in the 80s, we would still be trying to get out of it in the late 90s. But this is not your father's oldsmobile...nor his market. (What a silly campaign that turned out to be, by the way. It's a wonder GM made it THIS far. They are still complaining that it's because the Japanese cars have cheaper labor. lol...Um, the idea of giving the people what they want (dependable/superior cars!) must be a mystery to these execs.
The slow devaluation of the U.S dollar will probably hold true.
What effects do you think this will have on the global economy? I think if every economy becomes devalued, it will be fine. Don't you?
Realize this...In Europe, as recently as a decade ago, you didn't build a building unless you had the cash in stash to do it. You didn't get credit from a bank unless you had several of these projects under your belt and you had the funds to do it on your own anyway.
Now, things are similar in Europe as they are in the states. It used to be incredibly UNCOMMON to buy dinner on your credit/debit card in Europe as a local. Now, it is more mainstream.
The American dream has expanded globally. It's a good thing for the U.S. that nobody dreams better than we do.
;-)
I believe that the global economy will become inevitable. Be it in my lifetime or the next generation's...I think it will happen.
Keep on living!
waxie are you on twitter? If not are you going to be?
Post a Comment