Monday, May 04, 2009

Turnaround Tuesday?

OK, so for the last few weeks we lost ground (at least 1 to 2%) on Monday and then turned around on Tuesday and went higher. Now that we went up 3%ish on Monday, do we reverse trends and go DOWN Tuesday? Probably so...but we'll see.

Market busted through S & P 900 like it was butter pretty much. A very bullish, very trendy day as the market just powered higher and higher into the close. Any pullback was bought with both fists.

We have come a long way in a very short time. While we are tremendously overbought, it is very bad trading form to try to pick tops, so I'm not about to, but if we gap up I think its an automatic short and if we gap down I would buy it, but on any rush I would look and use the 10 am rule for guidance. The question remains, are the bulls bullish enough to continue to buy right into and through the stress test results? We have a very small gap down here as I write this, showing the bullish bias is probably not ready to go down so easily. Remember that any decent drawdown funds are dying to get in here, so this market currently has a nice floor under it.

I want you all to think about stopping to try to pick a top. I've gotten so many emails asking the same silly question "when should I buy SRS and SKF!"

Just remember, while you are trying to pick a top, we've been ROCKING on the long side. Why are you so hungry to go short? Seriously. I'm definately bearish long term, trust me, but I'm a TRADER day to day, I could care less where we go, as long as I'm on the right side of the trade! Stop asking me dumb questions about when you should short the market, chances are you aren't going to pick the exact top and you'll get stopped out anyway, and even if you catch a good trade, you'll get greedy with that head space and when we repop, which we will, you will get crushed more than likely.

Go WITH the market. I would not be looking for places to short the market here, other than on gap ups or on a day like Tuesday POTENTIALLY as described above, but right now if you are thinking about swinings shorts for long periods, well, G-d bless you, you are a braver man than I am! Sorry, I'm not answering these foolish questions, so just stop asking. TRADE the freakin' market, don't try to pick tops or bottoms! Trust me, you'll make out a LOT better that way then trying to catch falling knives or rising ones as well!

I have a lot to say, but I am very tired, so going to bed. Watch GE for a break if it can hold $13 here it should see $15 near term. We'll see soon enough!




Rich said...

I wonder what Cashin said at 8:50 this morning that caused CNBC to cut him off and run two commercials in the middle of his interview???

Kawena said...

I'm grateful you take personal time out of your day (though hopefully not away from your girls) to provide insight for us. I always look forward to your blogs. Thank you!