Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Here I am...

No, I haven't been given away as part of the TARP program to some banker to be their trading slave!

Market hasn't really done much of anything, and I just wanted to take a few days off before reranting again!

What can I say? Market has stabilized and is treading water, and for the time being we're in a buy the dip kind of mood. It's funny, I was reading some of the dude they call Dr.Doom, Mark Faber and he was talking about the very same thing I've said. At the beginning of the year I said we would see 5000 UNLESS the Fed devalued currency by opening up the printing presses. And, obviously that's exactly what they have done or we would be below 5000 right now. NO question my friends, none at all. We were at 6600 until they decided to start 24/7 printing money.

I am not going to rehash some old issues I have with what's been done, what's done is done. Needless to say, though, I disagree wholeheartedly with the path that the government has gone down. I think it will lead us to a disaster that is unprecedented in our history. I continue to hope I am wrong. What's even more disturbing to me is that it appears that there is just one mass lie being perpetrated. How come all the data keeps pointing to positive things now, while clearly it's just not true. How come the news reports that more Americans say they are thriving when everyone I know is struggling? There is a big disparity between what the media and government is portraying and what reality is. BIG. And, it's quite disturbing and alarming that we are being forcefed such BS.

OK, so what do we do here? Hell if I know! Hehe, sorry dudes and dudesses, I think we just chop around in a range, a tight one for a little bit and then decide which way we go. My guess is down, but I'm certainly not rushing out to short stuff arbitrarily. I'd rather buy dips until proven otherwise. 8500 continues to be the pivot, though, which is what my topside near term target has and remains, so I think we should get a real dip as the next big move. But, again, I think it prudent to let the market tip its hand before making a bit commitment of capital. I'd rather be safe then sorry, in other words!

OK, it's late and that's it, I do like YHOO here, I think before the summer is over MSFT and YHOO are one and the same. We shall see, but I like YHOO here, using $15 as a pivot.

I will try to post tomorrow. Meanwhile, make sure you are trading with discipline and racking up the Ka-chingos!

RULE!

Waxie

10 comments:

tokyo_yoyo said...

"How come all the data keeps pointing to positive things now, while clearly it's just not true."

It should be in the volume...?

Jim Murphy said...

Glad your back Waxie. Hope you are in good health now and share your thoughts as often as possible. Have a little YHOO. Hope it goes to 20+. Where do you think it would go, if MSFT buys them?

Adam said...

WAXIE! Great post as usual. Keep up the great work. Just finished reading Rule The Freakin' Markets and absolutely loved it. The best newbie guide to investing out there. Congrats on living the dream. The Dinkster just loaned me a copy of Crazy For Love so look forward to screening it soon.
Peace,
as

Mary said...

Glad you are back and all is well - I was getting concerned. I always look forward to your postings. Take Care, MCZ

SRS Player said...

Hi Waxie,

I especially appreciate your fourth paragraph here, and I for one wish that you would regularly devote an entire day's post to explaining what the government and the banks are doing and saying, why it's not true, why it's not fair, why it's not wise, what they should be doing instead, why they are doing what they're doing, why they aren't doing what they should be doing, what will likely happen as a result of what they're doing, and what we "little people" should be doing, as citizens as well as traders/investors, to try to protect ourselves and our loved ones.

One thing I think we can do as citizens is support the bill in Congress that will empower Congress to audit The Fed to find out how The Fed is spending trillions of our dollars. Maybe then the people's elected representatives can discover what is now being done without the people's knowledge or consent -- and hopefully Congress will then be able to control what the banksters are now able to get away with in secret.

A more open and honest government and stock market would make for a fairer and safer environment for us "little people" as traders, investors, and citizens instead of the manipulated, unpredictable mess the shady banksters and secretive government have put us all in now.

SRS Player said...

Hi Waxie,

I especially appreciate your fourth paragraph here, and I for one wish that you would regularly devote an entire day's post to explaining what the government and the banks are doing and saying, why it's not true, why it's not fair, why it's not wise, what they should be doing instead, why they are doing what they're doing, why they aren't doing what they should be doing, what will likely happen as a result of what they're doing, and what we "little people" should be doing, as citizens as well as traders/investors, to try to protect ourselves and our loved ones.

One thing I think we can do as citizens is support the bill in Congress that will empower Congress to audit The Fed to find out how The Fed is spending trillions of our dollars. Maybe then the people's elected representatives can discover what is now being done without the people's knowledge or consent -- and hopefully Congress will then be able to control what the banksters are now able to get away with in secret.

A more open and honest government and stock market would make for a fairer and safer environment for us "little people" as traders, investors, and citizens instead of the manipulated, unpredictable mess the shady banksters and secretive government have put us all in now.

SRS Player said...

Waxie,

Here's a link about the bill in Congress that I just referred to:

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/time-to-make-federal-reserve.html

mauiman said...

We could sell off really hard next week. Ended down on a friday..This whole week sucked. YHOO still hasn't made a move. Will see.. We got a 4 day week next week.

Daneric said...

Waxie the answers lie in Elliott Wave theory. Sentiment is largely what drives the markets nothing more.

You of all people should know that. The market is correcting 17 months of bearish sentiment. When it has corrected enough (maybe 6-10 months) it will be ready to plunge to new lows and your 5000 DOW and even lower.

Daneric said...

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/

If your ever bored, stop by and check out the charts and stuff.