Friday, April 04, 2008

Up day today no matter the #s?

After yesterday's rally despite horrid economic #s I think we should get a bump today no matter what they #s are. It's actually quite astonishing how we continue to shrug off bad news and power higher under the (potentially) naive belief that we're going to end up getting a huge economic bump with all the Fed initiatives. Perhaps we will, perhaps, but history is not on the markets side, as much as prognosticators would like to pitch as being the case. The bottom line is that the stock market has not moved a single inch in the last DECADE. Wall Street journal the other day called the 2000s the "lost decade". And ,basically what's happened is that we've just had sector rotation, that's all. Look at tech as prime example and you'll see that the market hasn't moved up for sure, and in fact many sectors have moved down and at best sideways. IBM, a DOW bellweather (and tech) hasn't budged in 10 years! EMC is down 80% from its peaks, and DELL, INTC and MSFT and CSCO and dozens of others are less than 1/2 what they were 10 years ago.

The chances that we get this huge move up, no matter what the economy does, seems pretty unlikely. Regardless, this remains a TRADERS market and that's where we and you should be making your money! Forget investing, anyone who knows about making money will tell you you either trade this market, or make money elsewhere. You don't put your money in a wishing well market and hope it goes up. Hope may spring eternal, but I'd rather put my money into something a little more solid!

Futures are up on the thought that the market has bottomed no matter what the #s are. Today that is probably correct, but I still have this ominous feeling...hey, maybe that's the bottom!




GlenGarryGlenRoss said...

CSCO is up over 100+% in the last 10 yrs. The EMC DELL etc etc seem about even to up some in the last 10 yrs.

Taking the high point in the last 10 yrs and saying they are down makes the same sense as taking the low in the last 10yrs and saying the are rocking, doesnt it?

mark said...

Waxie, The link to your blog is not on the main Trendfund page anymore so I thought you quit, which would be a HUGE disappointment to all of us who have been reading everyday. PLEASE keep up the great blog! You are not getting many comments posted, but I have a feeling there are MANY readers so please keep it up.

Regarding your post, I agree with you completely. I am in Japan, so I see the U.S. stock market from a different perspective. The U.S. dollar has CRASHED to it's lowest I have seen in over 10 years, The U.S. gas prices are taking a huge bite out of everyone's pockets and inflation is a HUGE problem no matter the FED or anyone says. What the heck are they going to do? Interest rates are already low and lowering them more will only worsen inflation and make the dollar even more of a FLOP! The FEDS hands are tied. And what the heck is a measly $600 going to do? My relatives who live in the U.S. are spending that much on gas every month!

Remember when Warren Buffet was betting against the U.S. dollar and you, Waxie, were saying to buy Gold around the same timeframe. Anyone with common sense and a basic understanding of things saw the handwriting on the wall that the U.S. dollar had to go lower, it was just a matter of time.

Well, "the handwriting is on the wall" again and anyone with a basic understanding can see that there are too many things stacked against the U.S. economy right now. It's not doomsday and life will go on, but I have that same ominous feeling that you do - it is just going to take a little time for this to play out.

So please keep up the great blogs. What you are doing is not easy and you have a great talent for keeping the pulse of the U.S. markets. You ROCK!


Jeanne Mancuso said...

Just wondering what indicators you focus on. The economy has a lot of woes but is there anything specific that would indicate to you that a bottom may be near?

ardub said...

Hi Waxie,
I would love to hear what you have to say about the Solar stocks that have been relentlessly moving up in the past couple of weeks even on down days. Sunpower has a PE of almost 800 and it seems investors aren't even interested in looking at this and taking it into consideration. I realize renewable energy, and especially Solar are making some substantial breakthroughs and will continue to grow, but don't you think that Stocks that have a PE this high are just being played with?

Thanks for all the info that you throw at us. Always helpful.


Waxie said...

Read tonights blog.

EMC is up in the last 10 years? What chart are you looking at? CSCO? CSCO is a piece of garbage that will be $10 before it'll be $40 ever again. But hey, what do I know? Investing is NOT the way people make money, sorry. It's a losers game, period. Put your trust in YOU, not some bozo CEO who could care less about you.

GlenGarryGlenRoss said...

EMC was 9.15 the week of April 10, 1998. Its 14 something now.

I guess I dont understand your math?

I've invested 20k in 2 American Funds Mutual Funds in 2001 and have more than doubled my money? How does investing not work?

Maybe I am using fuzzy math but I like when I can average 9% a year for 7yrs straight.

Waxie said...


I can't convince ya. I will say that trading I've made a lot more in that time. A LOT LOT LOT LOT more!