Wednesday, April 16, 2008

RALLY TIMEEEEEE, and starvation...

So, INTC posts pretty poor #s, but as we have discussed lately the market shrugs it off and blasts higher! Ka-chingo!

Here's reality, folks, we probably do get to my new HOY target, but I'm sticking with my overall bearish take longer term. This is certainly a traders market, and nothing else. It's always interesting to me, bullish sentiment is very fragile, both ways. What I mean by that is that on any given news item or comment the market just acts psychotic. That really is why you need to just stick to the TRENDS. When you look at it from a neutral perspective you can see why here. If you take the emotion out of investing/trading then you just do it on automatic and it becomes more about just sticking to a PLAN (Trade your plan, plan your trade), rather than the spur or heat of each moment.

Look at a chart of FNM. The stock was $60s not so long ago, got caught up in the sub prime mess and went all the way down to teens. Then it popped all the way back to $30s, then down to $25 and now $27s after today again. All of this action within a month or so. That's a LOT of volatility. We could point out a 100 with similar price actions. YOU need to be cash rich and flexible so you can take advantage of these mojo moves.

Our OPTION TRADER service has been SMOKING since inception about a year ago. Sick calls all around. SICK. Today we got basically a double on MELI calls, CMP calls we've owned for a few days. We caught GS calls for about 15% intraday today and we caught MA calls, we still own some, for over 55% intraday, and we still own some GOOG calls which look to gap up tomorrow after EBAY's beat. We also got TRA calls which looks good. All in all, a STELLAR day with OPTION TRADER! If you are interested in OPTIONS please email me @ and I'm happy to give you some thoughts on how to get into it in a real way and hopefully make some BIG ka-chingos!

In the meantime, tomorrow it'll be interesting. My sense is, given that it's options expiration week that they will pin either 1350 or 1400 on the S & P (ES). We'll see, but as many of you know, they usually pin nice round #s on stocks and on the indexes. Watch the action closely tomorrow and you'll get some "tells" for where they want to pin stuff.

Stocks that they like to pin are;

ALL the metals (X, PCU, FCX, etc etc)
Ags, etc. Basically anything momentum related you'll find they try to pin at a strike price. AMZN hovered around $75 all day today after popping. RIMM is another one. You could pull up a chart on 100 stocks on Friday and you'll more than likely see the action. This informs our trading and allows us, I feel, to have a HUGE edge. I LOVE options expiration week, I've had some of my best trading days on that day. Hopefully that trend will continue!

In the meantime, I just want to say that it's always sad to me to watch the news and see people suffering. I'm human beyond being a Waxie. We trade stocks here. Most people who trade stocks have more than most people, or more than many at least. Doesn't mean you are rich, just means you can support yourself. These days a lot of the commentary and the stocks we trade are AG stocks, or metal stocks or FOOD stocks and most of the time honestly all I'm thinking about is how I can help my clients make money. That's my job and I feel like we do it better than anyone else out there, bar none. But, watching people fighting for FOOD and WATER. And, we're not talking about Sushi or waiter service, we're talking about ROUGH RICE and WELL WATER. It puts things in perspective, ya know? Be grateful for what you have, it's hard to keep the perspective at times, it is for me when things are rough, and life ain't easy at times for anyone, but if I put things in that perspective then it's all really "ok" at least. At the very least.

Send a little prayer for some food to some people suffering, they can use some trading tips to!

Be safe, and rule!

See ya on the other side,

Michael WAXIE Parness

*If you are interested in the OPTIONS TRADER service, or options in general I am going to hold a 3 day class teaching them top to bottom and the last day will be a LIVE Options trading day (ONLY options trading) with me online. Cost of the 3 day class will be roughly $495. Trust me, it'll be WELL worth your while! Last time we did it EVERYONE said they made money, and I made very nice. I think we had 8 of 9 winners. No guarantees, no promises it'll be as good (or better) but I think it'll be WELL worth your while nonetheless! Email me directly @
As soon as I guage the interest I'll set a class date and such.