One of the hardest things about trading a Bear market, which we most certainly are, is that the short side tends to sell MUCH faster than the market rises in a bull market. And, the short covering rallies are sharp, on lower volume and happen at a moments notice. So, one can get shaken out of a lot of things if one is not careful, or even turn a sharp winner into a sharp loser.
GE's earnings report could turn out to be a watershed moment in this market. I do not recall GE missing their #s since I've been trading. I have to double check, but they almost always beat by 1 penny and the #s are decent enough to not cause a big selloff on any level. So, Friday's premarket #s are particularly disturbing and discouraging to the bull thesis that this is going to be a short lived recession, or that the bottom is here. The market had been bouncing on the notion that the market always starts rising before we're out of the woods, it anticipates the positives and thus starts to climb so as not to miss the good news that may happen in 6 months or 9 months or even a year later.
I believe that ANY rally here is ultimately doomed to fail. I've said that for a while. I thought that we may get a push to the high of the year, and we still could, but I'm not counting on that. This coming week is going to be SO KEY for a myriad of reasons.
OK, there ya go, 'nuff said! GOOG is going to be key for all the momentum stocks; AAPL, AMZN, etc. IBM is key for MSFT, ORCL, CSCO and the old stallions (dinosaurs). MER is key for the financials, though I don't believe anything they say at this point so anyone thinking that MER is at a bottom really is an idiot as far as I am concerned. How do you reasonably say MER is worth more than $44 a share that it trades at now when there's no shot they will have a profit for the next 2 years? Good luck to anyone buying any broker or bank stock right now, you are out of your freakin' mind, point blank.
This market is topsy turvy but all the buying is on much lighter volume then the selling is. That's a key signal that it is way too early to start buying for the long haul. This is a TRADERS market, period. ANyone investing is gonna get REAMED. Traders are the only ones making money here, so start trading and stop being a fool!
As far as the economy goes, I have to tell you, I see some really dire outcomes here. The Fed is doing everything wrong in my opinion. They can hail Bernanke all they want, they can hail congress for trying to bail out things. They are all WRONG. DEAD wrong and it is setting up the perfect storm in wreaking the entire banking system of our country.
the banks are trading as though they are "dead". The smart money is making money here shorting the banks, not going long them. I'm short SOV since $10.70ish and think it goes OUT OF BUSINESS. I am short MER, and GS as well. I want to be short C and FNM and FRE and SLM and WB and anything finance related. It's not a straight line and I trade in and out of them because I trade them up and down, but I think if you are buying C thinking its a good deal at $24 you are really just putting your hand in the fire. And, you're gonna get burned. There is no such thing as a "bottom" in anything. it doesn't exist, its an idea that people use to comfort themselves at night. Yes, we're at a bottom, it can't go down anymore!
Really? Try telling that to the investors who owned ETYS (Etoys, remember them?), RBAK, EXTR, INSP, even CSCO and MSFT and EBAY and EMC. They still exist but they will NEVER see the highs they once had. It's time for people to wake up, start trading this market, not investing! By trading you cut down the risk and can reap a lot of the reward. You can sleep at night. It's the American way! That's why we live in a free market society!
FYI - The seminar we are hosting is being pushed to JUNE. After thinking about it, I wanted to do it during a Triple Witching Options Expiration week, so June 15th to 20th gives us that opportunity. Historically thats the BEST week to trade the markets and so let's take advantage of that! You can email @ email@example.com to get more info on the MONEY BACK GUARANTEED seminar in NJ from June 15th to 20th featuring Waxie (me) and Tiny trading LIVE with a chance for you to trade right along with us and we guarantee you'll make the big Ka-chingos or you'll get most of your money BACK - guaranteed! So, there's not much to lose and EVERYTHING to gain!
Again, email me @ firstname.lastname@example.org
Or, find out and sign up for it @ https://www.trendfund.net/index.cfm?action=class_registration&CL=WAXIETINYMAY2008&LC=LT200805NJSHOW&bannerid=886&trafficid=1033621&CFID=808199&CFTOKEN=72414501
OH, and even more pressing - on THIS MONDAY, April 14th, I'm hosting and launching our 1st SMALL CAP MONSTER STOCK CLASS and newsletter! We get inundated with requests for Small Cap picks, well we are finally launching a Small Cap Monsters Newsletter that will feature weekly and month small cap stock picks, research and entry and exit strategies. This Monday the 14th of April at 4:30 pm is a class where I'll give the first 2 or 3 stocks featured and discuss how to play them and why we like 'em! You'll be the first to have an opportunity to get in on these plays! One of them is under $2.00! And, just of the class I found another small cap stock I think is gonna be a 10 bagger that I'll give in the class first on Monday! That alone is worth the price of admission! Plus, you'll get the newsletter for free as part of the class, so sign up NOW before its too late!
email me at - email@example.com if you have any qusestions regarding this class! But, its only 2 days away, so get in NOW!
There ya go, banking system is ready to roll over, but we're setting up a new banking system to print money at Trendfund.com!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
One more "tip" Watch the solar sector. Once congress approves the tax incentives and passes the bill to support them I think they could get a STEEP selloff after the intial pop. It's already known so should be a buy the rumor, sell the news set up to the nth degree! We'll see soon enough! RULE!