Monday, April 07, 2008

DISCONNECT, but with optimism...

It's funny, and absurd and actually endearing that we live in a country where optimism and hope do indeed spring eternal. It's hard for me sometimes, believe it or not, to be the guy who punches holes in "hope" as far as the market goes. Some of you may know this, most won't, but when I first started and was one of the first (and only) to call the market's peak in 2000 and was on CNN FN and FOX, etc. saying that it's time to short the market because we are gonna get hammered I got literal death threats. It was pretty bad, in one week I got 4 death threats. I had to go to NYPD Blue and speak to a detective, and I hired a former Detective to help me out. It's not the worst thing that ever happened to me, and frankly its kinda hard to scare me about most things, but having a child in 2001 and still getting them freaked me out a bit, I have to say. Thankfuly that hasn't happened in a long time, and I think we're much more "trained" now that the market can and does go down in a big way at times. So, I'm not the only one saying there is a disconnect right now between the market and reality. The pundits will say that the reason why the market is rallying is because this is going to be a short recession and the Fed's actions are already working and real estate will rebound, and all will be well. Booyah comes on all the time saying that home prices will be higher in a year from now. Sure they will be. I hope they will, like everyone else, but I get paid a lot of money by folks to give them a dose of reality every day so that they can hopefully profit by the market swings that occur each and every day. I'm not paid to be a talking head that says "oh, this is cheap or that is expensive". I give my opinions, sometimes I'm wrong, most of the time I'm right. The problem with the pundits its a conflict of interest, they are paid basically to tell you what to BUY. They aren't paid to tell you what to sell. Booyah is on now telling you that the people shorting the market are evil and that the uptick rule should be reinstated. THAT is the root of the market problems! yeah, ok, sure it is. This from a guy who was a hedge fund guy for years and who shorted stocks all the time. So, why is he on the case of shorts? Well, I don't think it takes a brain surgeon to figure that out. If the market goes into a prolonged bear market, which I believe it will and is, then the type of show he is on will be VERY difficult to stay on air. My business has gone down due to the market. When you are in the market you always "root" for it to go up, its the best for everyone. I would love for the market to go to 25,000, that would be awesome. I don't see that happening anytime in the next millenium, but I would be very happy if it happened. And, hey, maybe it will. Sometimes it pays to be wrong. My point is that I have to try to be a voice of reason (reality). We've been long lately and caught much of the move higher, but I am definately more bearish than bullish overall and longer term. The economy shows NO signs of getting better. This is, in my opinion, a trading rally in bear market. Unfortunately I can walk the streets of NYC and see store after store shut down. The unemployment #s are horrid an they are 100% getting worse. Washington Mutual (WM) rallied hard today after "good" news. In my view its just another shorting opp and I would love WM to see $16ish so I can reshort the thing. remember, just cause a stock isn't going under doesn't mean its worth $16 a share! On a daily basis we need to pick stocks that will move BOTH ways. We do that better than anyone else out there I believe. We're not always right, but we try to be and we try to be the voice of reason. The best traders have the steadiest hands. Hopefully you're stay steady with us! Tuesday should be pretty choppy. Market is trying to figure out how to push higher but its overbought. I think we could get another push higher, yet I am iffy here. I usually have a strong feeling but here I just want to take it minute by minute and stay nimble. When the market gives us some more guidance there will be a bigger move. It looks like higher here, but we shall see soon enough. Watch V and MA. MA has earnings shortly and V looks ready to pop HIGHER. We shall see! RULE! WAXIE

12 comments:

Jon said...

Waxie your analysis is Excellent! I may have to re-join.

I started my trading career because of you guys. i was in a Atlantic City hotel room during my step daughter's cheer leading competition. Your infomercial was on - think it was 2002. Joined with you guys for a year or so. I've been trading full time ever since.

Now, I am a little more bearish than you I think.

Keep in mind from 2003 to 2007 much of the job growth came from builders, construction, mortgage companies, investment banks, brokers & finance. It’s hard to believe that will ever come back like it did from 2003.

There are just too many obstacles ahead. We may get back to S & P 1375 – 1400, but after that I think we see much lower lows ahead. I think 1220, 1070, 800’s possible early next year.

Best Regards,
oo

Jeanne Mancuso said...

Hi,

Rebecca from Sunnybrook Farm here to offer a positive slant. As long as oil was cheap the viability of alternative fuels was nil and there was no reason to conserve other than maybe global warming. There's often positive aspects to the most negative of circumstances. We don't live in a vacuum and there are many brilliant minds working to resolve problems facing the real estate markets and the economy. Call me naive, but I think the market will be fine over the long haul.

Waxie said...

Jeanne,

The market hasn't been "fine" in over 10 years. That's reality. The world ain't ending, but I think it's naive to believe that during the greatest credit crunch of all-time that it's a great time to buy the US stock market. That seems beyond Sunnybrooke farms, that's kinda taking two hits of ecstasy and putting on Rose colored glasses, hon!

:) But, I hope that's right.

Jeanne Mancuso said...

...and you're funny too. Maybe if you weren't up blogging at 4 in the morning you'd have a more positive attitude hon! :)

Jon said...

What's wrong with Waxie telling it like it is Jeanne? If you have a problem with his advice, then just follow the pumpers - the Wall Street pigs, CNBC, etc. I make sure I don't marry a stock. Divorses can be very expensive, so best to take your profits before most pf the pumpers sell.

Jeanne Mancuso said...

Jon,

There's nothing wrong with Waxie telling it as he sees it and I'm interested in his opinion. I don't think anyone really knows so why not a little dissent. You know, fair and balanced. :) I really don't think the sky is falling.

Jon said...

Jeanne,
no problem.. well the sky isn't falling, but I am concerned that the economy & stocks will continue to fall big time.. The stock crash we'll (imho) see will be as big or bigger than the dot com... this year sometime...

At the very least plug in some stop losses & stick to them...

Good Luck,
Jon

Jeanne Mancuso said...

Jon,

Are you in cash? Just wondering. He scared me enough that I'm mostly in cash.

Thanks,

Jeanne

Jon said...

I'm 35% Cash & very large 65% short two specific tech stocks. I'm not long anything other than an ocasional day trade, but of course today no long day trades... just sitting on my two shorts - which I scaled into the last two weeks... & plan on holding short for a while.. I'd rather not say what stocks shorts because sometimes I get hurt when I do that... not that it should effect them... but you never know :)

Jeanne Mancuso said...

Waxie,
I apologize for being kind of flip. It is not my goal to become the pariah of Trendfund and sometimes I forget you're the CEO.

Happy trading,

Jeanne

Waxie said...

jeanne,

don't change, hon, don't change. I am very positive about most things, just not the stock market. If you learn to trade you can capture the majority of the moves without the risk when we crash and burn. That's what I believe. That's positive, no?

:)

Jeanne Mancuso said...

Very positive. :)