Sunday, November 01, 2009

You gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em...and now is the time to fold 'em...

S & P should see below 1000 shortly, Nasdaq almost a sure thing to see below 2000, and below 1900 more then likely before any real sustainable bounce comes along.

While I could be wrong, it seems unlikely we aren't done for now. We're basically done with the majority of meaningful earnings and I'm not sure why anyone would want to own stuff new, or not take profits on stuff they are up or recouped from.

You'd have to be insane, and while I think that investors are insane for letting someone else handle their money, but even so holding GOOG here at $550 area, where's it going? $600? So, you want to risk a trip to $400 for a potential pop to $600? Good luck to ya. And, GOOG would be one of the better examples of stocks that should hold up relatively well. I like the REIT's lower here, but let's see what shakes Monday. Futures started a lot lower tonight but have rebounded and are GREEN across the board here into the open tomorrow. I think a gap up is a must short baring news of some sort, but anything remains possible. The gaps have been pretty putrid lately as last week we basically had trend days every day and not much of a bounce post open, or a drawdown if we gapped up. This week may provide a reversal of fortune, and I do think we have officially changed the game here and look like the near term top is in.

Keep watching the dollar, that's a KEY and should remain so. I don't see any reason the dollar won't continue to get a bounce, particularly since most people don't think it can. It's interesting that the speak about the dollar mirrors the speak about the market up til now, no one thinks the dollar can sustain any type of rally, same as no one thought the market could. That should indicate some more decent upside for the dollar.

As I always say, nothing goes in a straight line, folks, if you have profits as an investor don't give them all back, I would take at least some off and wait for a better reentry, even if I'm wrong so what? You got an amazing bounce/rally, don't be a hog and squeal like a pig.

If I'm right we should see S & P below 1000, potentially this week. If I'm wrong, watch 1050 as 1st big resistence, then 1075 and then we'd probably retest the recent highs and if we bust them and hold all bets are off and blue skies are in store. I don't see that happening, but hey, I've been wrong many times before and I'm sure I'll be wrong many times from here.

My 1st TREND SUCCESS radio show debuts tomorrow/Monday night 7 to 8 pm EST.

The show airs on CBS online radio channel;

I'm going to follow up this post with some info about it tomorrow, but the show will be themed; SUCCESS...

it will have a stock focus for about 1/2 the show (the 1st half, with probably 10 minutes at the end as well for some calls stock specific) and the rest of the show will feature people from all walks of life who will discuss what it means to be a success in their chosen field, both professionally and personally.

Our 1st guest is a professor at Carnegie Mellon who works with some very very cool stuff, some of it straight out of a Star Trek episode. Bear in mind that the 1st couple I'm going to be just getting my feet wet and I hope by the 3rd or 4th episode the show will be really smooth. I have some seriously fantastic guests lined up, including some pretty huge names potentially, so check the show out, give a call in to say hi and wish me luck, or send me emails offering suggestions on guests.

Also, if you or someone you know would like to be on the show to share some success stories, please send me an email with the ideas;

Thanks and look forward to ruling the week with ya!

Go to; to check out the show tomorrow TREND SUCCESS from 7 to 8 pm EST!


Michael "Waxie" Parness

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