Lately it seems nearly every Monday is a TREND day, usually UP. The fades seem to be awful on Mondays.
I have a gut feeling that if we get a decent size gap UP today it's fadeable, with a 10 am rule stop. I wouldn't bet the house on that, its just a gut feeling and not always right (nothing is), but particularly if we gap up over 1100 on the S & P I would have to take that short WITH STOPS. If I lose, I lose, but my gut says we're not getting a major trend day MOnday and if thats the case then even if we are choppy there should be a fade at the open either way.
HOWEVER, if we open fairly flat, then the play becomes much softer, meaning if I play the fade I'll be playing it pretty small more then likely. For futures traders I would use same 10 am rule as I think a gap up even of 2 or 4 points on the ES should be a fade, again with STOPS.
Tough week to predict here. Asia is CRUSHING higher, so we should have some strength at the open and again its possible we just zoom higher and see new highs here, so if 10 am rule reverses our positions so be it. I'm willing to cede a small loss for a potentially bigger gain.
Let's see what shakes, and early this week I plan on going VERY slow here.
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