Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Like BUTTER...

That's what we did to all the supports, we sliced through them like BUTTER!

Now we look like a sure shot to S & P below 1000 potentially short term.

Having said that, GDP #s tommorrow 8:30 am and a main contributor to the drawdown today was Goldman saying GDP #s will be below consensus. So, the big question is, do we buy the news? I think so, I think as long as GDP is 2.5% or above, even if it misses the 3.2% estimate, we should get a VERY nice squeeze on the news. That's what I'm playing for, wrong or right.

If GDP is worse then 2.5% then I'm not sure and will play it by ear. I preface this by saying that I still think the game has changed and we are now in a BEARISH phase and on any squeeze we should be looking to reshort and reset the shorts.

Futures up here as I write this, but that is unlikely to last, Asia crushed and Europe likely to open down as well. And, fear about the GDP should outweight bargain hunters. They tried to prop us up Wednesday but were unable to, I do think it will be a nice setup if we gap down off those #s as stated above. I'm looking at the high Beta names to trade for the bounce. Key is money management, so setting stops if wrong is paramount. Also, don't overstay your welcome if we're right, hit and run baby, hit and run!

New range being carved out is much lower, S & P 1000 to 1050 now, from the 1050 to 1100 level were just at last week and until a couple days ago.

Just think that the way we are selling is fund related, not shorts and not traders. That's a bad sign for the market, people are taking profits here, it had to happen at some point. Have we seen highs of the year? I'd guess no, but for now I want to position myself with the crowd and that seems to be signaling another leg DOWN for this market on this move, even if we get the squeeze I think we will tomorrow. That's what makes trading, folks!

Either way, RULE and remember to sign up for - Michael "Waxie" Parness on Facebook and Trendfund on Twitter...

Michael "Waxie" Parness RULE

4 comments:

Jim Murphy said...

Thanks Waxie! This sounds like a good plan. Hope we get the squeeze today, even though most of my longs are already sold into yesterdays' rallies, I still have a few options on TYH, GLD, a couple of Chinese stocks and a couple of small stocks but keeping a few FAZ and SRS for a hedge, so I may try a couple of day trades. Do you like energy or tech or both? Is FCX ready for a squeeze? What are your thoughts about the dollar and gold near term?

Daniel said...

good thing you can change your mind on the fly

Erik said...

ya crushed that one..

looking for resumption of the downside next week (w/ FOMC / Unemployment)?

profit_guy said...

waxie, could you please offer your longer term opinion on BIDU?