Tuesday, February 17, 2009


The party really is over. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the Fed's bag of tricks is nearly run out and the stock market is on a morphine drip.

So much for the market being at a bottom. Funny how that works, all these knucklehead pundits predicting bottoms and the "buy of a lifetime" don't sound so smart right now. Man o man, it makes me ill how many people actually believe these know-it-nothings. Tragic, really. DOW closed down about 300 points, with the banks (who knew?) leading the way, but tech (funny how the Four Horsemen look more like Kimono Dragons right now, biting off the feet of any investor dumb enough to buy them) cracked as well.

Listen, I hate being right about this, I WISH, I PRAY for the economy to turn around, but that's just darn foolish thinking. It's not happening, the DOW will be below 5000 this year, you can bank on it! Tomorrow Obama unveils his MASTER PLAN to throw more money away on stupid attempts to manipulate the marketplace, this time the real estate market.

Can anyone answer me why it is that all taxpayers are on the hook to help keep individual homeowners afloat? Seriously, that's supposed to be in the "Nations" best interest? Really? Freakin' lunacy. Sheer and utter lunacy. It's amazing to me that we live in possibly the country with the greatest resources all around on earth and yet we come up with some of the absolute DUMBEST freakin' STUPID ideas of any country on earth. My gawd! Are you kidding me with this nonsense?

How about the novel idea that if someone can't afford their $1 MIL home, that maybe they downscale to afford a $500,000 one? Or, if times are really tough, maybe they RENT! How about that idea? Crazy, huh? Wow, what a wild concept!

But, you know what irks me, for real? The fact that some meglamoron comes up with a megladumb idea,this time being "we can't find a bottom until we have a bottom in real estate prices" and all of a sudden its ok to throw every bit of logic and reason, and everything,and I do mean EVERYTHING this country was built on out the freakin' window! So, that one RIDICULOUS idea makes it then ok for everyone to act stupid and ignorant and everyone to screw the entire country in order to try to take care of probably 10% of it! And, it won't even work for them! We already have statistics that people getting their mortgages reworked are still likely to not be able to pay, or not want to!

When did we become a confederacy of dunces? When did the collective IQ go from north of 110 to 120 to south of 30? I truly believe my soon to be 8 year old would come up with a better economic plan then we now have in place. That's not even an exaggeration.

OK, so I'm on vacation, taking photos with the Dolphins, riding tubes through shark fish tanks, and all I can think about is what it would look like if we took some rope, tied if around the waist of the entire former and present economic administration we have and played "DUNK THE ECONOMIC IDIOT" with real live sharks. Perhaps with their lives on the line they could come up with something that might actually resemble a plan that might work in the next 10 years, and that wouldn't completely destroy any shot we have of recovering.

Yes, I am cranky, imagine if I wasn't relaxed and on vacation! And, imagine if I wasn't COMPLETELY KILLING THIS MARKET racking up HUGE gains!

It just makes me so SICK to my stomach that the country is being thrown under the bus for no reason, other than sheer incompentence. But, I may be wrong, I may be crazy, I mean, the banking system can be saved, right? The market will come back, right? Just dollar cost average!

OK, forget them, I will tie myself up and dunk myself in a shark tank instead. I'm clearly wrong, they are right, everything the government is doing is going to work out just fine and see, look at the market, its working already! It's just an illusion that everytime Obama signs something the market makes new lows. I'm just dreaming it!

Tomorrow if we get early strength into this lunatic bail out 10% and CRUSH 90% of the country bill they brilliantly plan on supporting, it's probably a nice short once the news is past. I guess they could do something that the market views positively, but assuming not, we've been selling every bit of this type of event, so I have to go with the notion they will sell this one as well.

I LOVE - LOVE - BRK.B here to $2500 and then under $2000 in the next few months. Buffet is TOAST, folks. Sorry to say but the Oracle of Omaha smoked one too many Nebraska cornhusks and is about to meet his maker in the market, and that maker is ME = WAXIE!

I have been short BRK.B on from roughly $3000 and I'm planning on enjoying some more of the ride as it continues to fall. It's kinda scary but there are still people chasing the financials lower and lower, as though they will lead us on some massive rally that sticks at some point. Perhaps, but I think better shot hell really does freeze over, and global warming isn't real, or that A-Rod didn't do roids.

Then again, what do I know? I'm just a Waxie who's on vacation.

Here's my latest press release,fyi;


Enjoy and RULE!

I'll try to check in tomorrow. I hope I'm wrong, fyi. For real!




In Debt We Trust said...

Waxie, the worrying thing is that EVEN CRAMER is becoming bearish now. What does that mean? Become bullish now? Lol. Or maybe a blind squirrel can find a nut once in a whole.

Erik28 said...

Cramer "da Contrarian" is not bearish JP. lol He's doing his typical..."see look now is just a time to buy what's on your list!!look, aren't you happy, good day here!" Basically the same trading stradegy that gets you to UNDERPERFORM the market significantly.

Waxie, reading tiny's blog as well....are you in the same ballpack that after we crash to new lows here (be it 685 or whatever)...we should get a good tradable "grind it out" bounce?

I got the crash part, if anything i need reminders to let OFF the pedal to the short side...so let us know when its time to let off the bear gas please. (like ya did w/ jan effects list!)

Thanks....for all your posts, they help alot. (and heck, im a member already)

mauiman said...

Cramer isn't a day trader. So as day traders, why listen to him? I just listen to waxie, tiny, scott from trendfund. These are the guys that will make everybody millions....not cramer.

Iagree with Waxie's call on DOW below 5000 this year. With the way things are going, there is no doubt in my mind it will happen. Berkshire is finished too. But, I still see a glimmer of hope for our "free market", otherwise why trade? right?

tokyo_yoyo said...

Recommended watching:
PBS - Ascent of Money
CNBC - House of Cards
PBS -Frontline / Inside the Meltdown

Chase just payed me $200 to open a no fee business account and put another $25in my personal account...$225 for a $500 deposit...My other small banker tells me BAC has withdrawn as their counter party....Could it be that the master plan involves a huge banking consolidation through forced aquisition of smaller good banks by the large banks, liquidation or nationalization of the weaker banks, leaving only few mega banks standing?

Anonymous said...

Waxie>>>you rule dude. Enjoy your vacation.

FACTOR R said...

waxie tks for GLD !! doing well
and by the way I am in brazil and I am show you tredfund for a friends they got crazy here ...you should came here to give then a classes and carnaval vocations I bet you will love ...tks
take care !

mauiman said...

Dow 7000 before end of mar? no way! DOW 7000 way before end of mar, maybe even within the next 2 weeks... we are already flirting with 7400