Tuesday, February 10, 2009

I won't say we nailed it...

But we did!!! Wowsa, my best day in a long while, wowsa! Sick profits today!!! You ALL should have rocked, I gave ya the keys to the Kingdom, BUY THE RUMOR, SELL THE NEWS and boy did we sell!

Tomorrow the gap should be a nice fade initially, then from there really not sure. We'll need to play it as it pans out!

Am I the only one who finds it mindboggling the level of ineptitude we failm.

Today was one of those days where I made a SICK amount of money, but felt like I should have made a LOT more! I didn't press because it seemed almost too easy! This trend works in a sick way!

Again, it felt too ill, but that's fine, what isn't fine is that we are still left without a PLAN!

which leads me too...

Today's "Guithner Plan", which had rallied the markets and particularly the financial's over 8% last week proved to be a total dud. In fact, the plan isn't a plan at all, it's a plan to make a plan!

The problem appears to be that they can not come to a consensus on how to make a real plan. Why? Because the only logical and constructive plan is to NATIONALIZE the banking system, or at the very least, the banks that are effectively insolvent.

The reluctance to do so is several fold, but I would argue that it is misguided. By Nationalizing the banks you can start to restore the publics trust in the banking system, and it saves the taxpayers potentially TRILLIONS of dollars.

The fear is that they will wipe out a ton of shareholders, and that is true, but those shareholders, history has shown, will ultimately more than likely be wiped out anyway. Much of the recent fears have ultimately played out anyway. From BSC, AIG, FRE and FNM, the fear was the same, the Fed is trying to be all things to all people. They want to be able to support the system, while propping up the stock market.

If one thing is clear by now, it is that the markets do not want, nor do they respect the governments interventions or attempts to manipulate it.

A free market system means just that, the stock market needs to be allowed to fall to its proper level, the same is true of the real estate market. Historically it is almost universally agreed (even Ben Bernanke recently stated such) that when the government attempts to interfere and prop up markets, they fail miserably. See the Great Depression for Government intervention 101 details on how it not only didn't help restore confidence, or keep the markets propped up, but it extended the length of the downturn. The same seems to be holding true to form here in this market. The more intervention, the lower we have gone in the stock market, and the worse things have gotten. That seems to be pretty hard to argue at this point.

By nationalizing the banks it solves much of the issues, it allows the government to effectively cut the middle man out, guarantee ALL deposits, and because of such to give out loans with lower rates and better terms. It also allows them to renegotiate mortgages. By most noted accounts many banks are insolvent and are surviving on borrowed monies (your account!). To continue to try to maintain shareholder equity flies in the face of any common sense, or logic.

The banks need to be nationalized immediately, it allows us all of the above and perhaps most of all, it allows us to move forward instead of backwards. A novel idea, I know, in government, but one, perhaps that should be seriously contemplated and then implemented.


schi said...

excellent call as usual Waxie. In which of your subscription services did you recommend these (apart from your blog and ninja trader?).

Do I need to be logged in throughout the day if I subscribe to ninja trader?

I have tried options trader, but I used to see recommendations once a week and am looking for something more frequent but not requiring me to be logged in throughout the day. I looked at trendfund.com, but couldnt make out much :-)

Oliver said...

marvelous market call....indeed....with your setup it was no big deal to make money today...as I said it several times...you must have a cyrstal ball...thanks that you share your ideas/market calls with us here!!! I think we owe you a lot.

beach2788 said...

My friend works for CSCO, as a sales tech., he said he has not made a sale in 6 months, every call he makes, the IS Mgr says , "we are on hold till next year, no capital spending till 2010". He cannot even get his call returned many times, and he has been in the business for 12 years.
When Chambers is scaming you with a blaise/neutral forecast, then you know the market has problems.
Things are bad, real bad.

I'm not going long until there is blood on streets.

As the plans are found not to work,
An organized public protest rally about jobs, sometime in 2009, that ends with police intervention, and minor violence, then you can say we hit a buy-in rally.

Here is what is left to fall:
-consumer debt

-commercial real estate (these guys can hold out for long time, but their time is coming)

-GM not making it, needs more money, way more then they said.

- housing costs to go down 20%-30% more. Markets go up, markets go down, homeowners have to deal with it. Deal with it, your home is really worth 20% less then the lowest worst value you now think it is.

Waxie nailed it again, I did not see last weeks rally coming.

In Debt We Trust said...

Waxie, the fall was engineered by the Fed in order to get cheap re-financing of treasuries. While the media's attention has been on bond oversupply, they neglect to cover the fact that Bernanke CONTROLS the repo market. Look at him steadily w/drawing liquidity here in the FOMC:


Does this remind you of anything? Look at September...right before TARP I...Bernanke's plan to scare mkt longs into Treasuries worked all too well. I'm sure that he didn't intend the crash to happen as severely but these masters of the universe think they can predict everything.

Today was the 3 year note auction, tomorrow is the 10 year note and Thursday is the 30 year. Bernanke doesn't need to buy bonds. Not when he controls the supply.

mauiman said...

Good call, but we all know that's never going to happen. I mean, c'mon..this is the US government were talking about here.

Will see what happens. So far, all of your calls on the bank stocks have been correct. Wonder what will happen the rest of this week. Will probably see a retracement of yesterdays 380pt drop.. The markets obviously did not like Geithner's speech.

Derek future said...


Thank you for all of your insight. I just read your book and start to trade last this month. I have visit your blog and you have been on the money.

wondering if I should short RIMM?