Friday, February 20, 2009


OK, since I am a filmmaker, let's see if I can do ok predicting what the Academy will do. I always go with what I feel are the best choices, cause they mess up a lot. They are like the Booyahhead of Movies, they are often wrong, but will take credit even when its not due. Hence = Booyahhead Academy!

BEST PICTURE - Slumdog Millionaire.
Point blank, if you have not seen this film, go see it. It's a beautiful film, and very poignant. It's only real competition is probably The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttons which frankly I think is vastly overrated and it would be a real shame if it won much of anything. It's simply not that good of a film, its cliche, corny and overwrought with wussiness. And, most of all, it's been done much better before (ever hear of Forest Gump? Hmmm). Slumdog is a great film, in any year. Mixing social commentary with drama, a love story and comedy is no easy feast. It has to win, or I'm never watching the Academy Awards again.

BEST DIRECTOR - Danny Boyle, Slumdog
This guy is an artist and I am envious. Guy has made Trainspotting, 28 Days Later, and now this film. I mean, he's just a damn good director, period.

BEST ACTOR - I think Mickey Rourke should get it, but I think Sean Penn will get it. Thing is, I'm not that impressed with actors playing other people. And, trust me, Sean Penn is one of my favorite actors of all-time, I think he's a brilliant actor, but I think Mickey Rourke was better in The Wrestler, albeit he was roided out to the max and wasn't very pretty looking. I think Penn will get it because a lot of people think he should have gotten it for I Am Sam a few years ago and this is make up time. Having said that, I think playing characters that are handicapped like that is vastly overrated. It's film, you get to redo it as much as you want and its one note typically. I can act handicapped, its not that hard. Penn wins, but I would love Rourke to win.

BEST ACTRESS - Meryl Streep will win again for what, like the 27th time? She's just amazing. Top 3 or 4 actresses of all-time film wise. Someone else may win, but I'd be surprised. She hasn't won in a while, and it'll be a huge plus for the old Academy crowd for her to win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - This should be a gimme, Heath Ledger hands down. First off, dead or not, the guy did a PHENOMENAL job playing the Joker as a non-caracature. He was evil persona, he was downright scary. Amazing job and the fact that he died and the Academy can get that standing ovation they always crave makes this possibly the easiest pick of the night. He'll win, and he'll get that standing ovation. Real shame he won't be there to hear it, he probably would have gotten it anyway based on performance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Marisa Tomei should get this hands down just for being like the most smokingly hot 40+ actress on the planet. And, she's always good, this time no different. Thing is, her character left a lot to be desired, there just wasn't that much there for her to work with unfortunately. I think Tarhaji Henson from Curious Case of Benjamin Buttons gets it, though I really think this is totally up for grabs, anyone's guess. None of the choices would shock me, except my choice!


Easy - Milk will win this hands down.


Easy choice - Slumdog Millionaire, hands down. The Academy has to reward this film, this is a special film.


Wall-E will win, and it definately should. I loved it and I saw every animated film there was this year with my kids. Very good film, period. Plus, Eva is to robots what Tomei is to 40+ year old women. Gotta love a hot robot, ya know? EEEEE-VAAAA. My kids said it 5000 times, it will win the Gold.


Waltz with Bashir. Powerful, poignant and timely, it should win and I think it will, though honestly I haven't seen all the films in this category, so I can't speak to the others.


Slumdog. I hope its a Slumdog year, and I think the film was shot beautifully. Others were more polished, but the scenes of violence were amazing and any good shooter will make you feel part of the film, as opposed to outside looking in. I always think its overrated when praise goes to whoever makes the prettiest pictures. That's not the hard part of filmmaking, or shooting a film. It hopefully will be a Slumdog year.

The other categories, eh, I'll watch but can live without them for the most part, other than editing, which I hope Slumdog wins as well. Music Slumdog will win as well.

Rock on,

and, why don't one of you finance my next film? That would be really cool, and most exceptionally accepted. I'll keep my cell on waiting for that call with financing!

Now that would be way cool, winning my 1st Academy Award in 2011!




Jim Murphy said...

Thanks Waxie, nice diversion with a little humor always adds some spice to our otherwise number chrunching existence! I always enjoy your blog, no matter what topics are discussed and I assume as long as you say nothing in the blog about market action, you stick by your previous emails guideance and take positions expecting it to happen since your track record the last six months has been absolutely amazing! Now boulya head came on Friday acting bearish, so I'm worrying about a bear market bounce next week. Hope you can ease my fear and confirm that we should sell all rallies Monday. I was stopped out of SPG, Friday, however, no big deal (small loss) first one I think I took this year from your picks and I will try to establish a position again next week. Now, just to let you know I have been and will probably continue to follow the trendfund 2% guidelines, however, I did play a few Feb options as well as the March options you recommended on the FAZ which resulted in approximately 300% profits which were sold into the opening, all except for 1 which I decided to exercise. Also sold a Mar purchased for $10 for $36.10 and still riding the other two. My profits for the week, exceeded 3 months of our monthly income, so I'm about ready to sign up for more trendfund products. Currently, I'm not sure I can follow all 3 or 4 of your recommendations and think I will probably do better just to concentrate on your ideas. Next Tuesday, I plan on attending Scott's all day seminar to see if I can understand his continuation plays. If so, then I may need to purchase a higher level advisory service but as of right now, I'm thinking I may just upgrade my OPOW to your more powerful option service but don't really understand the difference between the 2 services yet. Would you please ask a staffer to send me a comparison summary. I really appreciate Scott's patient attention to questions we ask during his presentations, whether he gets paid or provides them free and the email I got from Tiny last week about the S & P line in the sand. Those all help my confidence, however, I think what really boost our confidence is when we follow your direction thru October, November, December, January and now February and you have been 90%+ correct our confidence grows, because all we have to do is buy low and sell higher or keep our losses to a small amount and your market trendfollowing ideas really work amazingly well! Thank you so much for sharing the lessons you have learned as a trader and any other life experiences with us. You are our hero! Warm regards,

Gan said...

Mr. Parness, you are more of a soothsayer than a trader...( I mean it as a compliment). Ur prolly right on the awards..funny thing is Slumdog Millionaire isnt that popular in the native country-India, I can tell you that the people there are drawn to wealth just as the West is fascinated by poverty.

All the analysts are now talking of 'nationalization' as the solution.....but this blog is the first place that I read that word a long time ago.....

Anonymous said...

Great post Waxie, Ahh Meryl Streep is awesome! Great Post Man! Sounds like your living the dream! Btw Waxie, I see a Bear Market rally in our near future. Next Week to be exact similar to the NOV 20th rally. Ok, bring on the rally I say. More to short going down... Do you see the same.. I am looking to ride UYG, FAS, TNA BGU. Rally till early March. Reverse & buy shorts & CAPULATION comes around March 20th or so? I will be on the SKF BGZ & TZA train then.. Choo Choo! Take Care Waxie, Rich

sunrivergregg said...

Hi Waxie

Can you plz plz plz post a comment on Peter DeFazio’s HR1068 bill sitting in congress.
As you well know this bill will directly impact Trendfund and all traders subsequently. It is a dangerous and moronic bill.

Everyone has told me that there is Probably no way that the bill will get pasted. That is exactly what people were saying about the inheritance tax in the 70's (because it was immoral taxing the dead). A scorpion is a scorpion my friend and they always sting. This bill if it fails will not be the only attempt by Peter DeFazio.

Please asked all to sign the HR 1068 petition....................
Thanks Gregg (sunriver).