Where every day we gap one way or another large and every day we reverse!
Please don't wake me up, because if its a dream, I really don't want to wake up to find out!
I have to say it again, this is (knock on wood!) the EASIEST MARKET I have ever seen, sans 1999 to 2000. I am dead serious. People look at this market and think its horrible, its so hard, but it's a VERY tradeable market. I said it last night, it follows ALL our rules. It's almost like I wrote the playbook!
Today was a gimme, a total gimme. We gapped up large on no news, the banks rallied hard on no news. Who the hell is dumb enough to buy that move? Seriously, who is buying these stocks other than very bad traders, and sucker investors? Not me, hopefully not you guys and certainly not our clients!
Today we ROCKED, we had BAC for about 10% short, GS for a big move short, TRV for a nice move short.
You know what's sick, tomorrow we may gap up again! I mean, why not? They just gap us up nearly every day and it just gets shot down. Yes, at some point we will get a very nice tradeable rally, but as you know from reading this, it'll more than likely happen when everyone has thrown in the towel and lost all their money!
The rally in the banks is simply short covering out of fear the government will devise a plan to pump up the stock market while saving the banks. While I guess that's possible, its highly improbable unfortunately. And, even if it happened it would be a very short term shot in the arm. Hence, the problem with government intervention, folks! EVery move they make we go lower and lower. It's insane, even my 7 year old daughter knows that if something doesn't work 30 or 40 times in a row, you stop doing it or you do something completely different! Yet, every day we come into work (trading is my office!) and every day there is more nonsensical news out of the White House or the Fed. Do they honestly believe what they are doing is correct? Denial is a powerful thing, so my guess is YES, they believe it. Obama thnks this will work, he has put his legacy this early behind these plans. I think it's very foolish, but maybe I'm wrong. I sure as hell hope so!
Thing is, I don't think anyone thinks 5000 on the DOW is laughable to anyone now, is it? We're barely holding 7000 and that's with the government throwing the kitchen sink at us! What happens when and if all this stuff doesn't work, or they figure out that they really do need to Nationalize the banks (they 100000% do at this point)? I think 5000 might be a dream in 2 or 3 years. We could be looking at 2000s. Remember, it was barely 20 years ago when the DOW was 2000s!
OK, so for tomorrow, we just keep following the Gap play, let them gap us up again on no news and we'll just sell it again. The banks look WAY overextended here unless some real news comes that is very good. The recent rally (which we caught most of!), was the best 1 week move EVER in the banking sector on a % basis! Do you realize how sick that is? That could only happen in a very bad Bear market as the only way those kinds of moves happen are when shorts have to cover in a big way.
I'm going to point out four stocks that are trading extremely poorly;
HBC
WFC
SPG
MS
All are well off their 52 week lows in a short span, but they are all making drastically lower lows. MS and SPG are green every day, but usually end up red on the day, even as GS stays green most da
ys. There is very heavy put buying in these names as well, particularly MS and WFC. For a name like WFC to be trading this low, it says a lot about insolvency. Now, again, it is possible they come up with something to save shareholders, but chances are equity has to be severely diluted. That's why C can't get to $3s, I think its almost a mortal lock to end up worthless or close to it, like FNM, FRE and AIG. That's best case scenario. Watch the stocks above tomorrow, if they gap up on NO NEWS I think you have yourself a winning short trade if you manage it correctly and use a stop if the trade goes against you. You can also trade SRS or SKF if we gap up and they are gap down. Both have been making huge moves off gap downs, particularly SRS which was way down and finished way up. As you know, the commercial real estate sector in my view aren't even remotely near a bottom.
It's kinda scary that we keep gapping up. This is very reminiscent of 2000 to 2003 where nearly every day Boohyahhead and Kuddlebear would say how we are bottomed and going up and every day nearly we'd gap up and then sell off. Again even as I write this the futures are up, even though DELL missed badly. I guess the people buying things pre market and post market must be smarter then I am. At some point they will be right, but Gawd bless, they will lose a helluva lot of money 75 times to make money once!
That, my friends, is pretty poor business plan, eh?
See ya on the other side,
RULE!
Waxie
*I want to clear up one thing. I think they need to Nationalize the banks NOW, BUT if I had my way they would have let them all fail, they'd let GM fail, they'd have let AIG, FNM, FRE, etc, etc, fail. I would not bail out home owners, I would not bail out any business that has a model that can not succeed. I only think they should Nationalize now because of the ridiculous and horrible road they have embarked upon. Horrible and very very VERY dangerous. I've talked extensively about this here and elsewhere. I do not think this is going to have a happy ending. I pray I am wrong, but that's all I can do because the road they have gone down due to special interests and poorly thought out plans is just so so horrendous and so disasterous that it can't possibly end good.
What continues to disgust me more than anything are the lies that keep pouring out of all sides. Are we stupid? Are we dogs? Because that's how I personally feel when I get lied to to my face. GM was in Washington today begging for more money that will be wasted, more money that will be paid for through higher taxes. GM is DEAD, it should be allowed to die. There is that Stephen King line from Pet Cemetary - "Some things are better left dead". Add the line "first and foremost GM!"
It's simply INSANE what they are doing. And now the master plan is to tax the "rich" more? Let me tell you something, I would GLADLY pay more taxes if the money wasn't going to bailout GM and irresponsible people. GLADLY. I can live with socialism, but I can't live with money being STOLEN from me by leeches! That's what they are doing, they are stealing money. And, since when is someone rich if they make $200,000 or a family makes $250,000? Seriously, in New York you can barely survive if you make less then that. I couldn't possibly afford my life if I had no savings and was living off my salary of that! OK, you may say "well, then Waxie, you need to adjust your lifestyle!". Fair enough, but then you'd have to have a mass exodus out of New York City of anyone who isn't super rich. Doesn't that defeat the purpose? Either tax the very rich, meaning people who make let's say $750,000 or more, or stop bailing out dead companies and irresponsible homeowners! Stop bailing out the banks! Stop it! Last I looked that is THEFT, and I don't know about you all, but I don't like being stolen from!
RULE!
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Just the GAPS maam!
Once again fading the GAP turned out to be hugely profitable. We caught STI for a very SICK move (again!) of over $2 by days end, on an $8s stock intraday!
Have I said that I LOVE THIS MARKET? OK, now you know, if you forgot!
I dropped my kids off at school, had to run an errand that took a lot longer then I expected and came back home to a pretty hefty loss based on me holding some banks overnight. Sucked! But, I merely added to my positions on the fade and wha-la, rockin'! Banks went way green midday and then tanked into the close, and I was LONG gone by then!
We also caught OIH for about $4.00 intraday. Plus Tiny caught the SPY short nicely. We are truly kicking butt in the chat room. I mean seriously.
I'm going to lay out how you trade this market, its very easy, its basically called "Hit and Run" trading. You can't get attached to any trade or idea, and you can't hold much overnight, there's really no point, other than some swing option positions. I mean, what's the point of holding stuff here for more than short time horizons? Intraday we still get these moves that you can catch, and then fade. Nothing sticks. We get those big Bear market pops, and then we sell them off the next day or two, but we get intraday countertrend moves all the while.
This is the problem I have watching pundits and the trading shows that litter the airwaves, most so-called traders really have no clue. That's not me being egotistical, I have my limitations as well. Hubris will kill any trader, or anyone in life. I talk large, but I know my achilles heels. I just find it amusing watching the same guys trek out and say the same wrong things time and time again. It's great on Fast Money tonight they had a new chart guy I never saw and he called the bottom. Any chart guy worth his salt isn't making that call, that's foolhardy. How many times have we heard about this ever elusive bottom? So much for Hogan's bottom, that was a joke. Enough already, there's no such thing as a "bottom". Please, traders don't think in terms of bottoms, we think in terms of how much money can I make on my next trade. Bottoms? I could care less. Of course this isn't the "bottom", duh. Any idiot knows that the market goes up and down and that over time the market is going to go lower, and higher, and then lower and higher again. It's peaks and valleys, its not like digging a ditch where you reach a bottom because you can't cut through the rock that you're hitting far down all of a sudden.
It's also funny hearing people call things like Gold long after they are $1000 and they've missed all the easy money. I called the banks yesterday and today for major money, I'm not always right, but to me I'm proud of that kind of call because everyone is against it and it feels "wrong" to everyone and yet I "know" its right as a trader. I know that they are running the banks into Guithner's magic plan! That's the nature of the beast of this market - NEWS RULES.
And, knock on wood, thats what makes this a pretty easy market to trade. It follows almost every rule we have laid out over the years.
GAPS work phenomenally here
News rules
Targets TA wise are hit
Round #s are hit and act as support and resistence. Did you notice that GOLD hit $1000 as I said it would and then dropped like a ROCK, like I said it would?
It's now $950, I had it short today and made nice money.
As I write this the futures are flying HIGHER...again. Does anyone with a brain think its not 85 to 95% chance that if we open up 100 points that it'll fade and go red at some point? Yes, it is possible we Gap Up and keep going, it does happen, but 9 out of 10 times in this market Gap Ups are the easiest money ever.
The Fed is now going to try to "FIX" the markets, again! They will reinstall the uptick rule because Bernanke, the dolt that he is, said that it might have helped the markets if we had it. So, they will reinstall it. It'll get another pop, and then it'll fade again. Then, you know what they will do? OK, I'll tell ya, they will eventually make it illegal to short stocks. Remember how well that worked for the financials? They fell apart.
Guithner's plan will be nonsense, the banks are insolvent. There is no plan to fix that. They have no earnings power, they are big bloated money losing beasts that need to be torn down so stronger and better businesses can be built. That's what would work and what should be done.
Unless he pulls a rabbit out of his hat, we are setting up for one of the best shorts of the year when he unveils his master plan. WFC, BAC, C, and many others are worthless. In the end that's where they will trade. What do you think C is worth if the government owns 40% of the common stock, and they still have all those toxic assets on their books? Doesn't anyone recall AIG, FRE, FNM? These are all partly owned by the government, folks. Did the uptick rule, or lack thereof make these stocks penny stocks? Did SKF as booyahhead keeps saying?
Oh, before they say no shorting they will probably step in to try to support the markets and maybe even buy stocks. They will use the same BS line that "taxpayers will make money on these deals" and its the same lie they said about AIG.
Who thinks Guithner can possibly come up with a plan that will have a lasting and meaningful effect on the banking sector? I hope I'm wrong, but chances are I'll be shorting, uptick rule or not, and I'll be buying the SKF or FAZ. I hope we get back to 7500 or 7700, that would be a nice place to put back on some shorts I've covered at much better entries then where I exited. I am almost all CASH and very happy about it.
If anything is really meaningful, just look at the action into the close, no one really wants to own stocks here, and rightfully so. Traders are willing to trade them intraday but by days end they mostly want to dump them so they can buy them cheaper soon thereafter. Mark to market, uptick rules and time travel to fix things all may have a temporary impact, but ultimately the market, like water, seeks its own level, and that level is, unfortunately MUCH MUCH MUCH further down!
RULE!
Waxie
Have I said that I LOVE THIS MARKET? OK, now you know, if you forgot!
I dropped my kids off at school, had to run an errand that took a lot longer then I expected and came back home to a pretty hefty loss based on me holding some banks overnight. Sucked! But, I merely added to my positions on the fade and wha-la, rockin'! Banks went way green midday and then tanked into the close, and I was LONG gone by then!
We also caught OIH for about $4.00 intraday. Plus Tiny caught the SPY short nicely. We are truly kicking butt in the chat room. I mean seriously.
I'm going to lay out how you trade this market, its very easy, its basically called "Hit and Run" trading. You can't get attached to any trade or idea, and you can't hold much overnight, there's really no point, other than some swing option positions. I mean, what's the point of holding stuff here for more than short time horizons? Intraday we still get these moves that you can catch, and then fade. Nothing sticks. We get those big Bear market pops, and then we sell them off the next day or two, but we get intraday countertrend moves all the while.
This is the problem I have watching pundits and the trading shows that litter the airwaves, most so-called traders really have no clue. That's not me being egotistical, I have my limitations as well. Hubris will kill any trader, or anyone in life. I talk large, but I know my achilles heels. I just find it amusing watching the same guys trek out and say the same wrong things time and time again. It's great on Fast Money tonight they had a new chart guy I never saw and he called the bottom. Any chart guy worth his salt isn't making that call, that's foolhardy. How many times have we heard about this ever elusive bottom? So much for Hogan's bottom, that was a joke. Enough already, there's no such thing as a "bottom". Please, traders don't think in terms of bottoms, we think in terms of how much money can I make on my next trade. Bottoms? I could care less. Of course this isn't the "bottom", duh. Any idiot knows that the market goes up and down and that over time the market is going to go lower, and higher, and then lower and higher again. It's peaks and valleys, its not like digging a ditch where you reach a bottom because you can't cut through the rock that you're hitting far down all of a sudden.
It's also funny hearing people call things like Gold long after they are $1000 and they've missed all the easy money. I called the banks yesterday and today for major money, I'm not always right, but to me I'm proud of that kind of call because everyone is against it and it feels "wrong" to everyone and yet I "know" its right as a trader. I know that they are running the banks into Guithner's magic plan! That's the nature of the beast of this market - NEWS RULES.
And, knock on wood, thats what makes this a pretty easy market to trade. It follows almost every rule we have laid out over the years.
GAPS work phenomenally here
News rules
Targets TA wise are hit
Round #s are hit and act as support and resistence. Did you notice that GOLD hit $1000 as I said it would and then dropped like a ROCK, like I said it would?
It's now $950, I had it short today and made nice money.
As I write this the futures are flying HIGHER...again. Does anyone with a brain think its not 85 to 95% chance that if we open up 100 points that it'll fade and go red at some point? Yes, it is possible we Gap Up and keep going, it does happen, but 9 out of 10 times in this market Gap Ups are the easiest money ever.
The Fed is now going to try to "FIX" the markets, again! They will reinstall the uptick rule because Bernanke, the dolt that he is, said that it might have helped the markets if we had it. So, they will reinstall it. It'll get another pop, and then it'll fade again. Then, you know what they will do? OK, I'll tell ya, they will eventually make it illegal to short stocks. Remember how well that worked for the financials? They fell apart.
Guithner's plan will be nonsense, the banks are insolvent. There is no plan to fix that. They have no earnings power, they are big bloated money losing beasts that need to be torn down so stronger and better businesses can be built. That's what would work and what should be done.
Unless he pulls a rabbit out of his hat, we are setting up for one of the best shorts of the year when he unveils his master plan. WFC, BAC, C, and many others are worthless. In the end that's where they will trade. What do you think C is worth if the government owns 40% of the common stock, and they still have all those toxic assets on their books? Doesn't anyone recall AIG, FRE, FNM? These are all partly owned by the government, folks. Did the uptick rule, or lack thereof make these stocks penny stocks? Did SKF as booyahhead keeps saying?
Oh, before they say no shorting they will probably step in to try to support the markets and maybe even buy stocks. They will use the same BS line that "taxpayers will make money on these deals" and its the same lie they said about AIG.
Who thinks Guithner can possibly come up with a plan that will have a lasting and meaningful effect on the banking sector? I hope I'm wrong, but chances are I'll be shorting, uptick rule or not, and I'll be buying the SKF or FAZ. I hope we get back to 7500 or 7700, that would be a nice place to put back on some shorts I've covered at much better entries then where I exited. I am almost all CASH and very happy about it.
If anything is really meaningful, just look at the action into the close, no one really wants to own stocks here, and rightfully so. Traders are willing to trade them intraday but by days end they mostly want to dump them so they can buy them cheaper soon thereafter. Mark to market, uptick rules and time travel to fix things all may have a temporary impact, but ultimately the market, like water, seeks its own level, and that level is, unfortunately MUCH MUCH MUCH further down!
RULE!
Waxie
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
It's all about the banks...
VERY sweet day! We caught the bank move as I called ZION for nearly $2 on an $8s stock, FITB for about 15%, JPM for about 4%, UBS for about 10% in about 1 1/2 hours!
Did someone say Ka-chingo? I love Bernanke!!! - NOT!
Tell ya, you gotta love this market, its great trading. I was having a bad morning, chopped myself to death early in the am (even I make rookie mistakes at times!) and then came Bernanke and it was like - Ka-chingo! Turned my day into a nice day, again!
Knock on wood, I'm on a dream run, in fact, I am like a Slumdog Millionaire! Homeless to dream run, I like it! Hopefully no one beats me up or electrocutes me, that would kinda suck, ya know?
Now things will get interesting, do we continue going higher through tomorrow or do we sell whatever Obama says? Thing is, the market continues to misread all news, its kind of funny at this point. We get monster Bear Market rallies based on news that isn't even good. I don't know, maybe it's me, but I heard Bernanke say nothing good for bank stocks. None of it changes reality, but shorts had to cover into Obama. I had that feeling and am kicking myself for not trusting my gut on that earlier, but hey, tough to complain when you make 50k in a day, ya know? Man, my acct is en fuego. Knock on wood, I am gonna try to continue it and bring ya all with me! Chat room is ROCKING, to say the least. I got some nice emails today intraday, keep 'em coming, they just egg me on to higher and better picks! FEED ME, baby, feed me!
I just want to be clear, these types of rallies are totally typical of Bear Markets, notice how if you look at the banking indexes they keep making lower lows. Nothing goes in straight lines, which is why trading is the ONLY way to play the market, or life. :)
I am not sure, but I think we could get a little more of upside depending on news, or lack thereof until Guithner lays out his master plan on the banks. I think we will more than likely sell that news, but may get a further pop into it. Remember, shorts have to cover usually for more than a day on a heavily shorted sector. We'll see soon enough, I kept some overnight, nervous as that makes me. The one I am targeting for a short when I think whatever small run we are gonna get is over is HBC. That thing looks much lower to me from here overall. We'll see, we shall see!
Oh, one more thought, Booyahhead did it again, he called a top! He is awesome, he called Gold long at $1000ish again! That is awesome, he did the same thing last time, and now he has done it again! I sold my gold near $1000 and I think it could get a decent size pullback. We'll see, but I got my nearly $200, I'm good with that, ya know? Man, I would love to put up $1 MILLION against Booyahhead and go trade for trade. That'd be the easiest MILLION ever made. Yummy!
In the meantime, enjoy our Presidents State of the Union. Have to give him credit, I really do think he means well, I just wish he was guided by more savvy advisors. These economist dudes he has around him are completely clueless. Have you noticed that every policy they come up with, the market sells off another 1000 points?
If nothing else, it'll be interesting tomorrow to see where we fall, a gap down should be VERY buyable baring some unforeseen news.
Oh, and a few of you graded my Oscar predictions, I guess I went 70%. That sucks, I shoulda got Kate Winslet right, that would have raised my %. I did get all the other big ones right, so not too shabby. I saw Slumdog for the second time Sunday afternoon, love that film. Rockin'.
Let's rock!
See ya on the other side,
RULE
Waxie
Did someone say Ka-chingo? I love Bernanke!!! - NOT!
Tell ya, you gotta love this market, its great trading. I was having a bad morning, chopped myself to death early in the am (even I make rookie mistakes at times!) and then came Bernanke and it was like - Ka-chingo! Turned my day into a nice day, again!
Knock on wood, I'm on a dream run, in fact, I am like a Slumdog Millionaire! Homeless to dream run, I like it! Hopefully no one beats me up or electrocutes me, that would kinda suck, ya know?
Now things will get interesting, do we continue going higher through tomorrow or do we sell whatever Obama says? Thing is, the market continues to misread all news, its kind of funny at this point. We get monster Bear Market rallies based on news that isn't even good. I don't know, maybe it's me, but I heard Bernanke say nothing good for bank stocks. None of it changes reality, but shorts had to cover into Obama. I had that feeling and am kicking myself for not trusting my gut on that earlier, but hey, tough to complain when you make 50k in a day, ya know? Man, my acct is en fuego. Knock on wood, I am gonna try to continue it and bring ya all with me! Chat room is ROCKING, to say the least. I got some nice emails today intraday, keep 'em coming, they just egg me on to higher and better picks! FEED ME, baby, feed me!
I just want to be clear, these types of rallies are totally typical of Bear Markets, notice how if you look at the banking indexes they keep making lower lows. Nothing goes in straight lines, which is why trading is the ONLY way to play the market, or life. :)
I am not sure, but I think we could get a little more of upside depending on news, or lack thereof until Guithner lays out his master plan on the banks. I think we will more than likely sell that news, but may get a further pop into it. Remember, shorts have to cover usually for more than a day on a heavily shorted sector. We'll see soon enough, I kept some overnight, nervous as that makes me. The one I am targeting for a short when I think whatever small run we are gonna get is over is HBC. That thing looks much lower to me from here overall. We'll see, we shall see!
Oh, one more thought, Booyahhead did it again, he called a top! He is awesome, he called Gold long at $1000ish again! That is awesome, he did the same thing last time, and now he has done it again! I sold my gold near $1000 and I think it could get a decent size pullback. We'll see, but I got my nearly $200, I'm good with that, ya know? Man, I would love to put up $1 MILLION against Booyahhead and go trade for trade. That'd be the easiest MILLION ever made. Yummy!
In the meantime, enjoy our Presidents State of the Union. Have to give him credit, I really do think he means well, I just wish he was guided by more savvy advisors. These economist dudes he has around him are completely clueless. Have you noticed that every policy they come up with, the market sells off another 1000 points?
If nothing else, it'll be interesting tomorrow to see where we fall, a gap down should be VERY buyable baring some unforeseen news.
Oh, and a few of you graded my Oscar predictions, I guess I went 70%. That sucks, I shoulda got Kate Winslet right, that would have raised my %. I did get all the other big ones right, so not too shabby. I saw Slumdog for the second time Sunday afternoon, love that film. Rockin'.
Let's rock!
See ya on the other side,
RULE
Waxie
Monday, February 23, 2009
HR 1068
OK, I've been asked to write on this by at least 1/2 dozen people in the last 3 days, so I'm going to briefly do so.
HR 1068 was introduced as a bill in congress by Peter DeFazio of Oregon and backed by 7 others. You can Google it to get that info. It is subtitled "The Let Wall Street Bail out Wall Street Bill".
The bill wants to have a .25% tax on every stock, future or options transaction.
Mr.DeFazio clearly has no clue, nor does anyone backing this rubbish, what it would actually do to the economy to have something like this pass. I don't see any way it passes, though in this crazy environment where there are massive rushes to judgement, anything is possible.
If it passed it would probably wipe out 1.5 to 2.0 MILLION jobs, including 98% of all traders. Mr.DeFazio claims that it would generate $150 BIL a year in taxes that would repay the bailout and once that happens it would phase out. Shocking as it is, this congressman is clueless as to the ramifications, and his math couldn't be wronger. Further, it would punish no one who had anything to do with Wall Street's greed, it would do the exact opposite, the only ones standing would be the most powerful, it would wipe out all the small firms that had nothing to do with the problems, and traders and it would dissuade investors from investing. More than likely the stock market drop 30 to 50% within a few months and it would further erode investor confidence.
This is just another one of those "look mom, I have a stupid idea but it sounds appealing to my constituency that isn't well informed so it might help me get reelected!" bills.
Let me just break down a trade for us traders;
You fade this mornings gap up (like we did - Ka-chingo!) You short 300 shares of AAPL at $100 a share average cost. (Yes, I know its $90s, but for ease sake...)
300 X's $100 = $30,000
According to this bill to make this trade ONE WAY would cost you $75, plus figure $10 you might normally pay, for a $85 trade. A roundtrip, which obviously you would need to do, it would be $170.00
Trading volume would dry up overnight, so that $150 BIL would become more like $50 BIL (at most I believe since trading would become virtually obselete).
Again, I don't see any way it passes, it may be the single dumbest thing I've heard yet.
I have to run out, but obviously my below 7000 target looks pretty easy at this point, we're within 100ish points of that. Who knew? Berkshire was some beast of a call, as was SPG, etc, etc, etc. We are ROCKING!
You want to know how we would get a SUSTAINABLE rally here? If they nationalized the banks, folks. That's how dumb they really are. Its so simple, if they did that we would get a nice big gap down and then the biggest one day reversal in the history of the stock market in my opinion. And, if it didn't happen that day, it would happen Day #2. I would be buying with BOTH FISTS everything I could once we got that washout.
Instead they keep trying to prop things up and it obviously backfires. I wish someone in charge had a clue. It's so simple my 7 year old can figure it out, the market WANTS the government to take over the banks. They keep saying on CNBC and everywhere how it would be horrible if they did it, they are DEAD WRONG! It would be the best thing FOR the market to do that!
If anyone who reads my blog has any access to any politicians in a real way, please encourage them to look at reality and stop the nonsense. These banks are worthless, lets make them worthless for real, wipe out the shareholders and move FORWARD instead of backwards. It's kinda like getting your Ex-Girlfriend pregnant because she threatens to commit suicide if you leave her. OK, so now you have a suicidal pregnant girlfriend (don't ask how I know this, please! :))
You don't make the problem better by keeping it alive, you make it a LOT worse, and that's exactly why the market continues to go lower and lower. It will not have any real sustainable rally until they take the things off life support and let them die. Then and only then can we get a real nice Bear market rally that may last a while. It won't ultimately last, but it will stop the bleeding.
Let's see what shakes Tuesday, which is as you know historically known as "turnaround Tuesday". Perhaps we bounce on HOPE and being oversold. We'll see, but we should get some sort of capitulatory move soon. That would wash out some longs and get us a nice bounce to trade at least. If we gap up again, we short it again, its like shooting ducks! The GAPS here have been GOLDEN, folks, you should all be playing them, they are GOLDEN!
RULE!
WAXIE
HR 1068 was introduced as a bill in congress by Peter DeFazio of Oregon and backed by 7 others. You can Google it to get that info. It is subtitled "The Let Wall Street Bail out Wall Street Bill".
The bill wants to have a .25% tax on every stock, future or options transaction.
Mr.DeFazio clearly has no clue, nor does anyone backing this rubbish, what it would actually do to the economy to have something like this pass. I don't see any way it passes, though in this crazy environment where there are massive rushes to judgement, anything is possible.
If it passed it would probably wipe out 1.5 to 2.0 MILLION jobs, including 98% of all traders. Mr.DeFazio claims that it would generate $150 BIL a year in taxes that would repay the bailout and once that happens it would phase out. Shocking as it is, this congressman is clueless as to the ramifications, and his math couldn't be wronger. Further, it would punish no one who had anything to do with Wall Street's greed, it would do the exact opposite, the only ones standing would be the most powerful, it would wipe out all the small firms that had nothing to do with the problems, and traders and it would dissuade investors from investing. More than likely the stock market drop 30 to 50% within a few months and it would further erode investor confidence.
This is just another one of those "look mom, I have a stupid idea but it sounds appealing to my constituency that isn't well informed so it might help me get reelected!" bills.
Let me just break down a trade for us traders;
You fade this mornings gap up (like we did - Ka-chingo!) You short 300 shares of AAPL at $100 a share average cost. (Yes, I know its $90s, but for ease sake...)
300 X's $100 = $30,000
According to this bill to make this trade ONE WAY would cost you $75, plus figure $10 you might normally pay, for a $85 trade. A roundtrip, which obviously you would need to do, it would be $170.00
Trading volume would dry up overnight, so that $150 BIL would become more like $50 BIL (at most I believe since trading would become virtually obselete).
Again, I don't see any way it passes, it may be the single dumbest thing I've heard yet.
I have to run out, but obviously my below 7000 target looks pretty easy at this point, we're within 100ish points of that. Who knew? Berkshire was some beast of a call, as was SPG, etc, etc, etc. We are ROCKING!
You want to know how we would get a SUSTAINABLE rally here? If they nationalized the banks, folks. That's how dumb they really are. Its so simple, if they did that we would get a nice big gap down and then the biggest one day reversal in the history of the stock market in my opinion. And, if it didn't happen that day, it would happen Day #2. I would be buying with BOTH FISTS everything I could once we got that washout.
Instead they keep trying to prop things up and it obviously backfires. I wish someone in charge had a clue. It's so simple my 7 year old can figure it out, the market WANTS the government to take over the banks. They keep saying on CNBC and everywhere how it would be horrible if they did it, they are DEAD WRONG! It would be the best thing FOR the market to do that!
If anyone who reads my blog has any access to any politicians in a real way, please encourage them to look at reality and stop the nonsense. These banks are worthless, lets make them worthless for real, wipe out the shareholders and move FORWARD instead of backwards. It's kinda like getting your Ex-Girlfriend pregnant because she threatens to commit suicide if you leave her. OK, so now you have a suicidal pregnant girlfriend (don't ask how I know this, please! :))
You don't make the problem better by keeping it alive, you make it a LOT worse, and that's exactly why the market continues to go lower and lower. It will not have any real sustainable rally until they take the things off life support and let them die. Then and only then can we get a real nice Bear market rally that may last a while. It won't ultimately last, but it will stop the bleeding.
Let's see what shakes Tuesday, which is as you know historically known as "turnaround Tuesday". Perhaps we bounce on HOPE and being oversold. We'll see, but we should get some sort of capitulatory move soon. That would wash out some longs and get us a nice bounce to trade at least. If we gap up again, we short it again, its like shooting ducks! The GAPS here have been GOLDEN, folks, you should all be playing them, they are GOLDEN!
RULE!
WAXIE
Friday, February 20, 2009
OSCAR PREDICTIONS...
OK, since I am a filmmaker, let's see if I can do ok predicting what the Academy will do. I always go with what I feel are the best choices, cause they mess up a lot. They are like the Booyahhead of Movies, they are often wrong, but will take credit even when its not due. Hence = Booyahhead Academy!
BEST PICTURE - Slumdog Millionaire.
Point blank, if you have not seen this film, go see it. It's a beautiful film, and very poignant. It's only real competition is probably The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttons which frankly I think is vastly overrated and it would be a real shame if it won much of anything. It's simply not that good of a film, its cliche, corny and overwrought with wussiness. And, most of all, it's been done much better before (ever hear of Forest Gump? Hmmm). Slumdog is a great film, in any year. Mixing social commentary with drama, a love story and comedy is no easy feast. It has to win, or I'm never watching the Academy Awards again.
BEST DIRECTOR - Danny Boyle, Slumdog
This guy is an artist and I am envious. Guy has made Trainspotting, 28 Days Later, and now this film. I mean, he's just a damn good director, period.
BEST ACTOR - I think Mickey Rourke should get it, but I think Sean Penn will get it. Thing is, I'm not that impressed with actors playing other people. And, trust me, Sean Penn is one of my favorite actors of all-time, I think he's a brilliant actor, but I think Mickey Rourke was better in The Wrestler, albeit he was roided out to the max and wasn't very pretty looking. I think Penn will get it because a lot of people think he should have gotten it for I Am Sam a few years ago and this is make up time. Having said that, I think playing characters that are handicapped like that is vastly overrated. It's film, you get to redo it as much as you want and its one note typically. I can act handicapped, its not that hard. Penn wins, but I would love Rourke to win.
BEST ACTRESS - Meryl Streep will win again for what, like the 27th time? She's just amazing. Top 3 or 4 actresses of all-time film wise. Someone else may win, but I'd be surprised. She hasn't won in a while, and it'll be a huge plus for the old Academy crowd for her to win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - This should be a gimme, Heath Ledger hands down. First off, dead or not, the guy did a PHENOMENAL job playing the Joker as a non-caracature. He was evil persona, he was downright scary. Amazing job and the fact that he died and the Academy can get that standing ovation they always crave makes this possibly the easiest pick of the night. He'll win, and he'll get that standing ovation. Real shame he won't be there to hear it, he probably would have gotten it anyway based on performance.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Marisa Tomei should get this hands down just for being like the most smokingly hot 40+ actress on the planet. And, she's always good, this time no different. Thing is, her character left a lot to be desired, there just wasn't that much there for her to work with unfortunately. I think Tarhaji Henson from Curious Case of Benjamin Buttons gets it, though I really think this is totally up for grabs, anyone's guess. None of the choices would shock me, except my choice!
BEST SCREENPLAY - ORIGINAL
Easy - Milk will win this hands down.
BEST SCREENPLAY - ADAPTED
Easy choice - Slumdog Millionaire, hands down. The Academy has to reward this film, this is a special film.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE -
Wall-E will win, and it definately should. I loved it and I saw every animated film there was this year with my kids. Very good film, period. Plus, Eva is to robots what Tomei is to 40+ year old women. Gotta love a hot robot, ya know? EEEEE-VAAAA. My kids said it 5000 times, it will win the Gold.
BEST FOREIGN FILM -
Waltz with Bashir. Powerful, poignant and timely, it should win and I think it will, though honestly I haven't seen all the films in this category, so I can't speak to the others.
CINEMATOGRAPHY -
Slumdog. I hope its a Slumdog year, and I think the film was shot beautifully. Others were more polished, but the scenes of violence were amazing and any good shooter will make you feel part of the film, as opposed to outside looking in. I always think its overrated when praise goes to whoever makes the prettiest pictures. That's not the hard part of filmmaking, or shooting a film. It hopefully will be a Slumdog year.
The other categories, eh, I'll watch but can live without them for the most part, other than editing, which I hope Slumdog wins as well. Music Slumdog will win as well.
Rock on,
and, why don't one of you finance my next film? That would be really cool, and most exceptionally accepted. I'll keep my cell on waiting for that call with financing!
Now that would be way cool, winning my 1st Academy Award in 2011!
RULE THAT BABY!
WAXIE
BEST PICTURE - Slumdog Millionaire.
Point blank, if you have not seen this film, go see it. It's a beautiful film, and very poignant. It's only real competition is probably The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttons which frankly I think is vastly overrated and it would be a real shame if it won much of anything. It's simply not that good of a film, its cliche, corny and overwrought with wussiness. And, most of all, it's been done much better before (ever hear of Forest Gump? Hmmm). Slumdog is a great film, in any year. Mixing social commentary with drama, a love story and comedy is no easy feast. It has to win, or I'm never watching the Academy Awards again.
BEST DIRECTOR - Danny Boyle, Slumdog
This guy is an artist and I am envious. Guy has made Trainspotting, 28 Days Later, and now this film. I mean, he's just a damn good director, period.
BEST ACTOR - I think Mickey Rourke should get it, but I think Sean Penn will get it. Thing is, I'm not that impressed with actors playing other people. And, trust me, Sean Penn is one of my favorite actors of all-time, I think he's a brilliant actor, but I think Mickey Rourke was better in The Wrestler, albeit he was roided out to the max and wasn't very pretty looking. I think Penn will get it because a lot of people think he should have gotten it for I Am Sam a few years ago and this is make up time. Having said that, I think playing characters that are handicapped like that is vastly overrated. It's film, you get to redo it as much as you want and its one note typically. I can act handicapped, its not that hard. Penn wins, but I would love Rourke to win.
BEST ACTRESS - Meryl Streep will win again for what, like the 27th time? She's just amazing. Top 3 or 4 actresses of all-time film wise. Someone else may win, but I'd be surprised. She hasn't won in a while, and it'll be a huge plus for the old Academy crowd for her to win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - This should be a gimme, Heath Ledger hands down. First off, dead or not, the guy did a PHENOMENAL job playing the Joker as a non-caracature. He was evil persona, he was downright scary. Amazing job and the fact that he died and the Academy can get that standing ovation they always crave makes this possibly the easiest pick of the night. He'll win, and he'll get that standing ovation. Real shame he won't be there to hear it, he probably would have gotten it anyway based on performance.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Marisa Tomei should get this hands down just for being like the most smokingly hot 40+ actress on the planet. And, she's always good, this time no different. Thing is, her character left a lot to be desired, there just wasn't that much there for her to work with unfortunately. I think Tarhaji Henson from Curious Case of Benjamin Buttons gets it, though I really think this is totally up for grabs, anyone's guess. None of the choices would shock me, except my choice!
BEST SCREENPLAY - ORIGINAL
Easy - Milk will win this hands down.
BEST SCREENPLAY - ADAPTED
Easy choice - Slumdog Millionaire, hands down. The Academy has to reward this film, this is a special film.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE -
Wall-E will win, and it definately should. I loved it and I saw every animated film there was this year with my kids. Very good film, period. Plus, Eva is to robots what Tomei is to 40+ year old women. Gotta love a hot robot, ya know? EEEEE-VAAAA. My kids said it 5000 times, it will win the Gold.
BEST FOREIGN FILM -
Waltz with Bashir. Powerful, poignant and timely, it should win and I think it will, though honestly I haven't seen all the films in this category, so I can't speak to the others.
CINEMATOGRAPHY -
Slumdog. I hope its a Slumdog year, and I think the film was shot beautifully. Others were more polished, but the scenes of violence were amazing and any good shooter will make you feel part of the film, as opposed to outside looking in. I always think its overrated when praise goes to whoever makes the prettiest pictures. That's not the hard part of filmmaking, or shooting a film. It hopefully will be a Slumdog year.
The other categories, eh, I'll watch but can live without them for the most part, other than editing, which I hope Slumdog wins as well. Music Slumdog will win as well.
Rock on,
and, why don't one of you finance my next film? That would be really cool, and most exceptionally accepted. I'll keep my cell on waiting for that call with financing!
Now that would be way cool, winning my 1st Academy Award in 2011!
RULE THAT BABY!
WAXIE
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Tiny's Blog, a must read!
As part of all your homework, you should all be reading Tiny's blog as well!
Here is the url; www.blogoftiny.blogspot.com
Go to it! You guys and gals getting a lot of freebies (non-members).
Show a little love and make a donation, even if its $5.00 to the Trend Fund Foundation.
Email - debbie@trendfund.com and cc me; waxie@trendfund.com for address to send it to. It's tax deductable, as the foundation is a 501C-3.
Thanks!
And, go check out Tiny's blog NOW! - www.blogoftiny.blogspot.com
Here is the url; www.blogoftiny.blogspot.com
Go to it! You guys and gals getting a lot of freebies (non-members).
Show a little love and make a donation, even if its $5.00 to the Trend Fund Foundation.
Email - debbie@trendfund.com and cc me; waxie@trendfund.com for address to send it to. It's tax deductable, as the foundation is a 501C-3.
Thanks!
And, go check out Tiny's blog NOW! - www.blogoftiny.blogspot.com
I got your stimulus...right here, buddy!
My gawd, I've seen enough, and it's enough to make me puke all over myself, all kinds of chunks of colorful stuff. Like a rainbow, only disgusting!
They will Nationalize the banking system as I've discussed here and all over the place many times now. Unfortunately it'll be after throwing 10 TRILLION into the gutter. As usual our powers that be are way behind the curve and figure things out well after anyone with 1/2 a brain has figured it out.
Berkshire Hathway hit our 1st target of 2500 today. Once it loses that level it should see 2000 pretty fast. Any bounce on this stock is a short, period. When it goes bankrupt you'll know the only person in the world who made that call. You still have 2500 points to make on it, so go to it! Yeah, yeah, I know, I know, I'm a looney, I keep getting the same dumb enough from one of my non-fans saying "12,000 before 5000!"
Ah-huh, sure thing toots! As always, it doesn't matter anyway, just keep trading. I sold all my GOLD futures today around 980. I think it'll pull in here, but even if it doesn't who cares, I basically rode it from 870 to 980, that's a nice enough move for my tastes.
So, the question now is, when do we get a meaningful bounce. I can't honestly tell ya, but I think a real one won't come til we get crushed below 7000 at least. Then perhaps we can get a bounce, depending on the news of the day. The REAL bounce will come when the government actually does Nationalize the banks. I think that will help the markets in a big way, even though that bounce won't last either more than likely. Perception is everything and the perception will be, when that happens, that the bad sector is now a non-issue, so we can move forward. So, that's where I'd be looking to buy some stocks for a nice long trade. For now I stay short if its anything more than a day, and longs are merely an intraday trade.
Did you see the insurance stocks? Wow, they are CRACKED. I think SPG and VNO, hence SRS long, have a lot more downside. I can see SPG bankrupt as well, they run a lot of malls and they are hurting, plus they have a heavy debt load. Any stock like that in the $30s is tasty to the short side, ya know?
It's time for those of you on the sidelines to move off the sidelines and start trading like champs. I'm already up about $1 MIL on the year and it's not even March! I don't want to get my hubris going cause I can get my teeth kicked in by the market (I'm supersticious, fyi), but this market really is raining money and it's time for YOU to cash in! So, get off the sidelines and start racking up! EVERYTHING we do is working in this market. Obviously there's never any guarantees, but facts are facts and many of our clients are KICKING MARKET BOOTY! SO, wake up and smell the WAXIE! Sign up NOW!
Ninja or Options Trader,either will do. We are rocking - ALL!
Stimulus package is a total washout, all these programs will go down in history as the worst ideas we've ever had economically. I'm laying 10 to 1 odds that Obama doesn't get reelected in 4 years. All that promise unfortunately is washed down the tube because of the horrible choices he's made for his economic "team" a bunch of lame-o's, to say the least. A crying shame. It's hard watching our country laid to waste by know-nothing politicians.
I read today that Zimbawe is printing up $100 TRILLION bank notes now, their worth? $30 US!
They have 98% inflation a day.
You know what? Don't laugh, we've being led down a very similar road, my friends. It is very scary indeed.
On that happy note - RULE!
And, if you haven't done so already, BUY MY NEW BOOK!
RULE YOUR FREAKIN' RETIREMENT by me, Michael Parness
It's available now on Amazon, order it now!
WAXIE
They will Nationalize the banking system as I've discussed here and all over the place many times now. Unfortunately it'll be after throwing 10 TRILLION into the gutter. As usual our powers that be are way behind the curve and figure things out well after anyone with 1/2 a brain has figured it out.
Berkshire Hathway hit our 1st target of 2500 today. Once it loses that level it should see 2000 pretty fast. Any bounce on this stock is a short, period. When it goes bankrupt you'll know the only person in the world who made that call. You still have 2500 points to make on it, so go to it! Yeah, yeah, I know, I know, I'm a looney, I keep getting the same dumb enough from one of my non-fans saying "12,000 before 5000!"
Ah-huh, sure thing toots! As always, it doesn't matter anyway, just keep trading. I sold all my GOLD futures today around 980. I think it'll pull in here, but even if it doesn't who cares, I basically rode it from 870 to 980, that's a nice enough move for my tastes.
So, the question now is, when do we get a meaningful bounce. I can't honestly tell ya, but I think a real one won't come til we get crushed below 7000 at least. Then perhaps we can get a bounce, depending on the news of the day. The REAL bounce will come when the government actually does Nationalize the banks. I think that will help the markets in a big way, even though that bounce won't last either more than likely. Perception is everything and the perception will be, when that happens, that the bad sector is now a non-issue, so we can move forward. So, that's where I'd be looking to buy some stocks for a nice long trade. For now I stay short if its anything more than a day, and longs are merely an intraday trade.
Did you see the insurance stocks? Wow, they are CRACKED. I think SPG and VNO, hence SRS long, have a lot more downside. I can see SPG bankrupt as well, they run a lot of malls and they are hurting, plus they have a heavy debt load. Any stock like that in the $30s is tasty to the short side, ya know?
It's time for those of you on the sidelines to move off the sidelines and start trading like champs. I'm already up about $1 MIL on the year and it's not even March! I don't want to get my hubris going cause I can get my teeth kicked in by the market (I'm supersticious, fyi), but this market really is raining money and it's time for YOU to cash in! So, get off the sidelines and start racking up! EVERYTHING we do is working in this market. Obviously there's never any guarantees, but facts are facts and many of our clients are KICKING MARKET BOOTY! SO, wake up and smell the WAXIE! Sign up NOW!
Ninja or Options Trader,either will do. We are rocking - ALL!
Stimulus package is a total washout, all these programs will go down in history as the worst ideas we've ever had economically. I'm laying 10 to 1 odds that Obama doesn't get reelected in 4 years. All that promise unfortunately is washed down the tube because of the horrible choices he's made for his economic "team" a bunch of lame-o's, to say the least. A crying shame. It's hard watching our country laid to waste by know-nothing politicians.
I read today that Zimbawe is printing up $100 TRILLION bank notes now, their worth? $30 US!
They have 98% inflation a day.
You know what? Don't laugh, we've being led down a very similar road, my friends. It is very scary indeed.
On that happy note - RULE!
And, if you haven't done so already, BUY MY NEW BOOK!
RULE YOUR FREAKIN' RETIREMENT by me, Michael Parness
It's available now on Amazon, order it now!
WAXIE
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
TURN OUT THE LIGHTS...
The party really is over. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the Fed's bag of tricks is nearly run out and the stock market is on a morphine drip.
So much for the market being at a bottom. Funny how that works, all these knucklehead pundits predicting bottoms and the "buy of a lifetime" don't sound so smart right now. Man o man, it makes me ill how many people actually believe these know-it-nothings. Tragic, really. DOW closed down about 300 points, with the banks (who knew?) leading the way, but tech (funny how the Four Horsemen look more like Kimono Dragons right now, biting off the feet of any investor dumb enough to buy them) cracked as well.
Listen, I hate being right about this, I WISH, I PRAY for the economy to turn around, but that's just darn foolish thinking. It's not happening, the DOW will be below 5000 this year, you can bank on it! Tomorrow Obama unveils his MASTER PLAN to throw more money away on stupid attempts to manipulate the marketplace, this time the real estate market.
Can anyone answer me why it is that all taxpayers are on the hook to help keep individual homeowners afloat? Seriously, that's supposed to be in the "Nations" best interest? Really? Freakin' lunacy. Sheer and utter lunacy. It's amazing to me that we live in possibly the country with the greatest resources all around on earth and yet we come up with some of the absolute DUMBEST freakin' STUPID ideas of any country on earth. My gawd! Are you kidding me with this nonsense?
How about the novel idea that if someone can't afford their $1 MIL home, that maybe they downscale to afford a $500,000 one? Or, if times are really tough, maybe they RENT! How about that idea? Crazy, huh? Wow, what a wild concept!
But, you know what irks me, for real? The fact that some meglamoron comes up with a megladumb idea,this time being "we can't find a bottom until we have a bottom in real estate prices" and all of a sudden its ok to throw every bit of logic and reason, and everything,and I do mean EVERYTHING this country was built on out the freakin' window! So, that one RIDICULOUS idea makes it then ok for everyone to act stupid and ignorant and everyone to screw the entire country in order to try to take care of probably 10% of it! And, it won't even work for them! We already have statistics that people getting their mortgages reworked are still likely to not be able to pay, or not want to!
When did we become a confederacy of dunces? When did the collective IQ go from north of 110 to 120 to south of 30? I truly believe my soon to be 8 year old would come up with a better economic plan then we now have in place. That's not even an exaggeration.
OK, so I'm on vacation, taking photos with the Dolphins, riding tubes through shark fish tanks, and all I can think about is what it would look like if we took some rope, tied if around the waist of the entire former and present economic administration we have and played "DUNK THE ECONOMIC IDIOT" with real live sharks. Perhaps with their lives on the line they could come up with something that might actually resemble a plan that might work in the next 10 years, and that wouldn't completely destroy any shot we have of recovering.
Yes, I am cranky, imagine if I wasn't relaxed and on vacation! And, imagine if I wasn't COMPLETELY KILLING THIS MARKET racking up HUGE gains!
It just makes me so SICK to my stomach that the country is being thrown under the bus for no reason, other than sheer incompentence. But, I may be wrong, I may be crazy, I mean, the banking system can be saved, right? The market will come back, right? Just dollar cost average!
OK, forget them, I will tie myself up and dunk myself in a shark tank instead. I'm clearly wrong, they are right, everything the government is doing is going to work out just fine and see, look at the market, its working already! It's just an illusion that everytime Obama signs something the market makes new lows. I'm just dreaming it!
Tomorrow if we get early strength into this lunatic bail out 10% and CRUSH 90% of the country bill they brilliantly plan on supporting, it's probably a nice short once the news is past. I guess they could do something that the market views positively, but assuming not, we've been selling every bit of this type of event, so I have to go with the notion they will sell this one as well.
I LOVE - LOVE - BRK.B here to $2500 and then under $2000 in the next few months. Buffet is TOAST, folks. Sorry to say but the Oracle of Omaha smoked one too many Nebraska cornhusks and is about to meet his maker in the market, and that maker is ME = WAXIE!
I have been short BRK.B on from roughly $3000 and I'm planning on enjoying some more of the ride as it continues to fall. It's kinda scary but there are still people chasing the financials lower and lower, as though they will lead us on some massive rally that sticks at some point. Perhaps, but I think better shot hell really does freeze over, and global warming isn't real, or that A-Rod didn't do roids.
Then again, what do I know? I'm just a Waxie who's on vacation.
Here's my latest press release,fyi;
http://www.silive.com/prnewswire/index.ssf?/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=SIlive.story&STORY=/www/story/02-17-2009/0004973908&EDATE=Feb+17,+2009
Enjoy and RULE!
I'll try to check in tomorrow. I hope I'm wrong, fyi. For real!
RULE!
Waxie
So much for the market being at a bottom. Funny how that works, all these knucklehead pundits predicting bottoms and the "buy of a lifetime" don't sound so smart right now. Man o man, it makes me ill how many people actually believe these know-it-nothings. Tragic, really. DOW closed down about 300 points, with the banks (who knew?) leading the way, but tech (funny how the Four Horsemen look more like Kimono Dragons right now, biting off the feet of any investor dumb enough to buy them) cracked as well.
Listen, I hate being right about this, I WISH, I PRAY for the economy to turn around, but that's just darn foolish thinking. It's not happening, the DOW will be below 5000 this year, you can bank on it! Tomorrow Obama unveils his MASTER PLAN to throw more money away on stupid attempts to manipulate the marketplace, this time the real estate market.
Can anyone answer me why it is that all taxpayers are on the hook to help keep individual homeowners afloat? Seriously, that's supposed to be in the "Nations" best interest? Really? Freakin' lunacy. Sheer and utter lunacy. It's amazing to me that we live in possibly the country with the greatest resources all around on earth and yet we come up with some of the absolute DUMBEST freakin' STUPID ideas of any country on earth. My gawd! Are you kidding me with this nonsense?
How about the novel idea that if someone can't afford their $1 MIL home, that maybe they downscale to afford a $500,000 one? Or, if times are really tough, maybe they RENT! How about that idea? Crazy, huh? Wow, what a wild concept!
But, you know what irks me, for real? The fact that some meglamoron comes up with a megladumb idea,this time being "we can't find a bottom until we have a bottom in real estate prices" and all of a sudden its ok to throw every bit of logic and reason, and everything,and I do mean EVERYTHING this country was built on out the freakin' window! So, that one RIDICULOUS idea makes it then ok for everyone to act stupid and ignorant and everyone to screw the entire country in order to try to take care of probably 10% of it! And, it won't even work for them! We already have statistics that people getting their mortgages reworked are still likely to not be able to pay, or not want to!
When did we become a confederacy of dunces? When did the collective IQ go from north of 110 to 120 to south of 30? I truly believe my soon to be 8 year old would come up with a better economic plan then we now have in place. That's not even an exaggeration.
OK, so I'm on vacation, taking photos with the Dolphins, riding tubes through shark fish tanks, and all I can think about is what it would look like if we took some rope, tied if around the waist of the entire former and present economic administration we have and played "DUNK THE ECONOMIC IDIOT" with real live sharks. Perhaps with their lives on the line they could come up with something that might actually resemble a plan that might work in the next 10 years, and that wouldn't completely destroy any shot we have of recovering.
Yes, I am cranky, imagine if I wasn't relaxed and on vacation! And, imagine if I wasn't COMPLETELY KILLING THIS MARKET racking up HUGE gains!
It just makes me so SICK to my stomach that the country is being thrown under the bus for no reason, other than sheer incompentence. But, I may be wrong, I may be crazy, I mean, the banking system can be saved, right? The market will come back, right? Just dollar cost average!
OK, forget them, I will tie myself up and dunk myself in a shark tank instead. I'm clearly wrong, they are right, everything the government is doing is going to work out just fine and see, look at the market, its working already! It's just an illusion that everytime Obama signs something the market makes new lows. I'm just dreaming it!
Tomorrow if we get early strength into this lunatic bail out 10% and CRUSH 90% of the country bill they brilliantly plan on supporting, it's probably a nice short once the news is past. I guess they could do something that the market views positively, but assuming not, we've been selling every bit of this type of event, so I have to go with the notion they will sell this one as well.
I LOVE - LOVE - BRK.B here to $2500 and then under $2000 in the next few months. Buffet is TOAST, folks. Sorry to say but the Oracle of Omaha smoked one too many Nebraska cornhusks and is about to meet his maker in the market, and that maker is ME = WAXIE!
I have been short BRK.B on from roughly $3000 and I'm planning on enjoying some more of the ride as it continues to fall. It's kinda scary but there are still people chasing the financials lower and lower, as though they will lead us on some massive rally that sticks at some point. Perhaps, but I think better shot hell really does freeze over, and global warming isn't real, or that A-Rod didn't do roids.
Then again, what do I know? I'm just a Waxie who's on vacation.
Here's my latest press release,fyi;
http://www.silive.com/prnewswire/index.ssf?/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=SIlive.story&STORY=/www/story/02-17-2009/0004973908&EDATE=Feb+17,+2009
Enjoy and RULE!
I'll try to check in tomorrow. I hope I'm wrong, fyi. For real!
RULE!
Waxie
Friday, February 13, 2009
HAVE A GOOD WEEKEND!
Stocks dropped into the 3-day weekend in a potentially ominous sign that retesting the November lows is a foregone conclusion. I stick with my DOW below 7000 by the end of March call.
One comment on our favorite Booyahhead!
How come the guy just refuses to admit he's wrong and move on? Nearly every day he rants about how the SHORTS (oohhh, those evil doers!) have it all wrong, how WFC, BAC, C, JPM are all screaming buys!
This is the same nonsense he spewed for months and months into BSC failure, when he screamed at callers telling them not to sell it when it was $60 to $80, saying it was a perfect takeover target (I'm paraphrasing, you can Youtube it for the actual quotes).
The same nonsense he spewed saying that C, WB, etc were all buys, and in fact C was part of his Tower of Power banks or whatever he called it.
Listen, I've been wrong before, clearly, but to keep pounding the table and crushing people time and again is unreal. Today's action was horrendous for the bulls. Into a 3-day weekend, when everyone knows there will be stimulus, bank and foreclosure news for the market not to rally is pretty ominous. Will it play out that way? We'll see, perhaps its meaningless and we rally hard next week. Perhaps, but either way, anyone buying the banks for anything more than a very short term trade is an out and out dolt. It's not the shorts, BOoyahead, its REALITY. Reality is, these banks are INSOLVENT. You want to own C and BAC and WFC? Good luck, don't fight the tape is the 1st thing I ever heard about the market. I think it was in Trading Places or some other movie I saw. I was very busy looking at Jaime Lee in Trading Places, so perhaps it wasn't that movie (classic comedy though it may be!), but regardless, why would you even talk about that group, or point to the dreaded "SHORTS!" That's absurd, the banks aren't going down because of SKF, or the shorts, the banks are going down because everyone with 1/2 a brain knows they are completely insolvent. Same as FRE, FNM, BSC, WB, etc. WFC is worthless, C same, BAC same, STI same, and many many others.
I've said it here many many times, the problem is MUCH bigger than any of these knuckleheads imagines. $1 TRIL? $2 TRIL? I wish. Try $50 to $100 TRIL on for size, cause that's what I think the problem would take to be cleared up.
How much is the US dollar worth if they print $100 TRIL? Yes, it's the SHORTS!
Part of being a profitable trader is dealing in reality. I wouldn't own BAC for 30 days if you spotted me $2. That's how much I think of it. Now, maybe it's $20 next week. Or, even $10. Maybe, maybe so, but it'll be that with us trading it, and certainly not owning it for more than a TRADE.
As far as shorts go, we're short some of these names with puts, I'll take my chances. Some people are here to make friends, I'm here to help you make mooolah, babies - BIG KA-CHINGO MOOLAH!
Rock on, and enjoy the weekend, next week should be a doosey either way! I'm not making a call on the week, too much news will rule. And, I'm on vacation!
RULE!
WAXIE
One comment on our favorite Booyahhead!
How come the guy just refuses to admit he's wrong and move on? Nearly every day he rants about how the SHORTS (oohhh, those evil doers!) have it all wrong, how WFC, BAC, C, JPM are all screaming buys!
This is the same nonsense he spewed for months and months into BSC failure, when he screamed at callers telling them not to sell it when it was $60 to $80, saying it was a perfect takeover target (I'm paraphrasing, you can Youtube it for the actual quotes).
The same nonsense he spewed saying that C, WB, etc were all buys, and in fact C was part of his Tower of Power banks or whatever he called it.
Listen, I've been wrong before, clearly, but to keep pounding the table and crushing people time and again is unreal. Today's action was horrendous for the bulls. Into a 3-day weekend, when everyone knows there will be stimulus, bank and foreclosure news for the market not to rally is pretty ominous. Will it play out that way? We'll see, perhaps its meaningless and we rally hard next week. Perhaps, but either way, anyone buying the banks for anything more than a very short term trade is an out and out dolt. It's not the shorts, BOoyahead, its REALITY. Reality is, these banks are INSOLVENT. You want to own C and BAC and WFC? Good luck, don't fight the tape is the 1st thing I ever heard about the market. I think it was in Trading Places or some other movie I saw. I was very busy looking at Jaime Lee in Trading Places, so perhaps it wasn't that movie (classic comedy though it may be!), but regardless, why would you even talk about that group, or point to the dreaded "SHORTS!" That's absurd, the banks aren't going down because of SKF, or the shorts, the banks are going down because everyone with 1/2 a brain knows they are completely insolvent. Same as FRE, FNM, BSC, WB, etc. WFC is worthless, C same, BAC same, STI same, and many many others.
I've said it here many many times, the problem is MUCH bigger than any of these knuckleheads imagines. $1 TRIL? $2 TRIL? I wish. Try $50 to $100 TRIL on for size, cause that's what I think the problem would take to be cleared up.
How much is the US dollar worth if they print $100 TRIL? Yes, it's the SHORTS!
Part of being a profitable trader is dealing in reality. I wouldn't own BAC for 30 days if you spotted me $2. That's how much I think of it. Now, maybe it's $20 next week. Or, even $10. Maybe, maybe so, but it'll be that with us trading it, and certainly not owning it for more than a TRADE.
As far as shorts go, we're short some of these names with puts, I'll take my chances. Some people are here to make friends, I'm here to help you make mooolah, babies - BIG KA-CHINGO MOOLAH!
Rock on, and enjoy the weekend, next week should be a doosey either way! I'm not making a call on the week, too much news will rule. And, I'm on vacation!
RULE!
WAXIE
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Why do they get to keep the money?
Why is it even a question as to what to do about past CEO and Executive compensation at the financials that are now receiving TARP money?
Most of US get paid based on performance. Unlike these congressmen and women who want to rewrite history, I don't have ANY problem on giving people performance bonuses. In fact, for anyone to suggest that they should merely get salaries, they are clueless about what it takes to run a good company, attract top talent and give people incentive to do even better. That's a big part of capitalism, and frankly if I was in charge I'd say EVERYONE should be paid based on performance. That would negate all the waste and incentivize people to work even harder because they know there is upside. If the upside is only for shareholders, or the owner of the business, most people aren't going to work nearly as hard as if they have a stake in the company thriving.
It's amazing listening to these hearings that some of these politicians want to get rid of bonuses. HELLO! THe problem isn't and never was the bonuses! In fact, I would argue the problem is the SALARIES. Get rid of salaries and make pay based on performance, trust me, you'll get a lot more productivity. It's a win win that way.
I understand the public is outraged that the average Joe or Joess doesn't make, nor can they comprehend, someone making $20 MIL a year or more, but that's because they dont have enough information. Or, they have been let down based on the lies and attitudes and criminal acts or whatever.
So, what is the issue? The issue is that these guys were paid BILLIONS based on FICTION profits! They were paid $10s of millions each year in bonus based on bogus profits. Many I am sure knew it. So, how is it right that these guys get to keep their bonuses, when the profits were clearly never real? If we assume it's ok for them to make performance bonuses/pay base, then why wouldn't they be penalized for making too much money/bonuses and giving it back now that the taxpayer, who largely make at best a fraction of the money these clowns did and do.
#1 culprit? Henry Paulson, just resigned Secretary of the Treasury. THe guy made BILLIONS based on PHONEY #s, why would he be allowed to keep it? If I was a shareholder, I would sue the crap out of these guys to make them pay!
BUt, of course, I'm barkng up the wrong tree, this is the same system where GS is trading near $100 based on probably nothing more than the belief that since seemingly all decision makers in Government economic policy makers have been, or are, or do or did, work for GOLDMAN SACHS! And, yeah, I stick to my $10 target on GS ultimately still!
It is outrageous and offensive that these huge issues go undiscussed and certainly seemingly unpunished. I don't know, but if Barry Bonds (and I'm by no means a Barry Bond fan!) may go to jail based on allegedly lying to a grand jury, what's worse, that, or CEOs who knew the end was near who then go out and give away billions in bonus money?
It's disgusting, the banks need to be nationalized NOW! Anything less and they are just setting up another repeat of this now and/or in the future!
I'm on vacation in the Bahamas, I'll be back end of next week. I have NO idea what market will do, I didn't watch it at all today other than close some winners out.
Enjjoy your time off from me, I'll try to post blogs when I can, but no market calls when I'm away on vacation here.
RULE and don't let the bed bugs bite!
Waxie
Most of US get paid based on performance. Unlike these congressmen and women who want to rewrite history, I don't have ANY problem on giving people performance bonuses. In fact, for anyone to suggest that they should merely get salaries, they are clueless about what it takes to run a good company, attract top talent and give people incentive to do even better. That's a big part of capitalism, and frankly if I was in charge I'd say EVERYONE should be paid based on performance. That would negate all the waste and incentivize people to work even harder because they know there is upside. If the upside is only for shareholders, or the owner of the business, most people aren't going to work nearly as hard as if they have a stake in the company thriving.
It's amazing listening to these hearings that some of these politicians want to get rid of bonuses. HELLO! THe problem isn't and never was the bonuses! In fact, I would argue the problem is the SALARIES. Get rid of salaries and make pay based on performance, trust me, you'll get a lot more productivity. It's a win win that way.
I understand the public is outraged that the average Joe or Joess doesn't make, nor can they comprehend, someone making $20 MIL a year or more, but that's because they dont have enough information. Or, they have been let down based on the lies and attitudes and criminal acts or whatever.
So, what is the issue? The issue is that these guys were paid BILLIONS based on FICTION profits! They were paid $10s of millions each year in bonus based on bogus profits. Many I am sure knew it. So, how is it right that these guys get to keep their bonuses, when the profits were clearly never real? If we assume it's ok for them to make performance bonuses/pay base, then why wouldn't they be penalized for making too much money/bonuses and giving it back now that the taxpayer, who largely make at best a fraction of the money these clowns did and do.
#1 culprit? Henry Paulson, just resigned Secretary of the Treasury. THe guy made BILLIONS based on PHONEY #s, why would he be allowed to keep it? If I was a shareholder, I would sue the crap out of these guys to make them pay!
BUt, of course, I'm barkng up the wrong tree, this is the same system where GS is trading near $100 based on probably nothing more than the belief that since seemingly all decision makers in Government economic policy makers have been, or are, or do or did, work for GOLDMAN SACHS! And, yeah, I stick to my $10 target on GS ultimately still!
It is outrageous and offensive that these huge issues go undiscussed and certainly seemingly unpunished. I don't know, but if Barry Bonds (and I'm by no means a Barry Bond fan!) may go to jail based on allegedly lying to a grand jury, what's worse, that, or CEOs who knew the end was near who then go out and give away billions in bonus money?
It's disgusting, the banks need to be nationalized NOW! Anything less and they are just setting up another repeat of this now and/or in the future!
I'm on vacation in the Bahamas, I'll be back end of next week. I have NO idea what market will do, I didn't watch it at all today other than close some winners out.
Enjjoy your time off from me, I'll try to post blogs when I can, but no market calls when I'm away on vacation here.
RULE and don't let the bed bugs bite!
Waxie
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Rule Your Freakin' Retirement!
Another stellar review!
Pick up a copy NOW! Go to; www.amazon.com and punch in Rule Your Freakin' Retirement.
Buy one now!
BOOKLIST
Advanced Review – Uncorrected Proof
Issue: March 1, 2009
Rule Your Freakin' Retirement:
How to Retire Rich by Actively Managing Your Assets
Parness, Michael (Author)Mar 2009. 288 p. St. Martin's, hardcover, $25.95. (9780312375751). 332.024.
The advice given here prompts every American, wealthy or not, to not only understand finances but also tom anage money—not invest it for the long term. It begins, as most financial planners agree, with a firma nalysis of one’s assets, liabilities, and needs, including all types of insurance, estate planning, and an objective look at Social Security. Then the usual content follows, including discussions of 401(k)s, mutualfunds, bonds and bond funds, cash, and asset allocation. Yet the author does dive into the kinds of tips
usually known only by financial pros, such as possible fleecing—in terms of management fees—from mutual fund companies, the differences between mutual funds and the advantages of ETFs, and defining the bond ladder with a few simple how-tos. Part three, then, clinches the deal, where Parness shares some ideas and tricks used by traders—and inveighs against investors. With end-of-chapter quizzes and an approachable colloquial writing style, Parness helps ensure his future as a TV and radio expert.
— Barbara Jacobs
Pick up a copy NOW! Go to; www.amazon.com and punch in Rule Your Freakin' Retirement.
Buy one now!
BOOKLIST
Advanced Review – Uncorrected Proof
Issue: March 1, 2009
Rule Your Freakin' Retirement:
How to Retire Rich by Actively Managing Your Assets
Parness, Michael (Author)Mar 2009. 288 p. St. Martin's, hardcover, $25.95. (9780312375751). 332.024.
The advice given here prompts every American, wealthy or not, to not only understand finances but also tom anage money—not invest it for the long term. It begins, as most financial planners agree, with a firma nalysis of one’s assets, liabilities, and needs, including all types of insurance, estate planning, and an objective look at Social Security. Then the usual content follows, including discussions of 401(k)s, mutualfunds, bonds and bond funds, cash, and asset allocation. Yet the author does dive into the kinds of tips
usually known only by financial pros, such as possible fleecing—in terms of management fees—from mutual fund companies, the differences between mutual funds and the advantages of ETFs, and defining the bond ladder with a few simple how-tos. Part three, then, clinches the deal, where Parness shares some ideas and tricks used by traders—and inveighs against investors. With end-of-chapter quizzes and an approachable colloquial writing style, Parness helps ensure his future as a TV and radio expert.
— Barbara Jacobs
I won't say we nailed it...
But we did!!! Wowsa, my best day in a long while, wowsa! Sick profits today!!! You ALL should have rocked, I gave ya the keys to the Kingdom, BUY THE RUMOR, SELL THE NEWS and boy did we sell!
Tomorrow the gap should be a nice fade initially, then from there really not sure. We'll need to play it as it pans out!
Am I the only one who finds it mindboggling the level of ineptitude we failm.
Today was one of those days where I made a SICK amount of money, but felt like I should have made a LOT more! I didn't press because it seemed almost too easy! This trend works in a sick way!
Again, it felt too ill, but that's fine, what isn't fine is that we are still left without a PLAN!
which leads me too...
THE BANKING SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE NATIONALIZED!
Today's "Guithner Plan", which had rallied the markets and particularly the financial's over 8% last week proved to be a total dud. In fact, the plan isn't a plan at all, it's a plan to make a plan!
The problem appears to be that they can not come to a consensus on how to make a real plan. Why? Because the only logical and constructive plan is to NATIONALIZE the banking system, or at the very least, the banks that are effectively insolvent.
The reluctance to do so is several fold, but I would argue that it is misguided. By Nationalizing the banks you can start to restore the publics trust in the banking system, and it saves the taxpayers potentially TRILLIONS of dollars.
The fear is that they will wipe out a ton of shareholders, and that is true, but those shareholders, history has shown, will ultimately more than likely be wiped out anyway. Much of the recent fears have ultimately played out anyway. From BSC, AIG, FRE and FNM, the fear was the same, the Fed is trying to be all things to all people. They want to be able to support the system, while propping up the stock market.
If one thing is clear by now, it is that the markets do not want, nor do they respect the governments interventions or attempts to manipulate it.
A free market system means just that, the stock market needs to be allowed to fall to its proper level, the same is true of the real estate market. Historically it is almost universally agreed (even Ben Bernanke recently stated such) that when the government attempts to interfere and prop up markets, they fail miserably. See the Great Depression for Government intervention 101 details on how it not only didn't help restore confidence, or keep the markets propped up, but it extended the length of the downturn. The same seems to be holding true to form here in this market. The more intervention, the lower we have gone in the stock market, and the worse things have gotten. That seems to be pretty hard to argue at this point.
By nationalizing the banks it solves much of the issues, it allows the government to effectively cut the middle man out, guarantee ALL deposits, and because of such to give out loans with lower rates and better terms. It also allows them to renegotiate mortgages. By most noted accounts many banks are insolvent and are surviving on borrowed monies (your account!). To continue to try to maintain shareholder equity flies in the face of any common sense, or logic.
The banks need to be nationalized immediately, it allows us all of the above and perhaps most of all, it allows us to move forward instead of backwards. A novel idea, I know, in government, but one, perhaps that should be seriously contemplated and then implemented.
Tomorrow the gap should be a nice fade initially, then from there really not sure. We'll need to play it as it pans out!
Am I the only one who finds it mindboggling the level of ineptitude we failm.
Today was one of those days where I made a SICK amount of money, but felt like I should have made a LOT more! I didn't press because it seemed almost too easy! This trend works in a sick way!
Again, it felt too ill, but that's fine, what isn't fine is that we are still left without a PLAN!
which leads me too...
THE BANKING SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE NATIONALIZED!
Today's "Guithner Plan", which had rallied the markets and particularly the financial's over 8% last week proved to be a total dud. In fact, the plan isn't a plan at all, it's a plan to make a plan!
The problem appears to be that they can not come to a consensus on how to make a real plan. Why? Because the only logical and constructive plan is to NATIONALIZE the banking system, or at the very least, the banks that are effectively insolvent.
The reluctance to do so is several fold, but I would argue that it is misguided. By Nationalizing the banks you can start to restore the publics trust in the banking system, and it saves the taxpayers potentially TRILLIONS of dollars.
The fear is that they will wipe out a ton of shareholders, and that is true, but those shareholders, history has shown, will ultimately more than likely be wiped out anyway. Much of the recent fears have ultimately played out anyway. From BSC, AIG, FRE and FNM, the fear was the same, the Fed is trying to be all things to all people. They want to be able to support the system, while propping up the stock market.
If one thing is clear by now, it is that the markets do not want, nor do they respect the governments interventions or attempts to manipulate it.
A free market system means just that, the stock market needs to be allowed to fall to its proper level, the same is true of the real estate market. Historically it is almost universally agreed (even Ben Bernanke recently stated such) that when the government attempts to interfere and prop up markets, they fail miserably. See the Great Depression for Government intervention 101 details on how it not only didn't help restore confidence, or keep the markets propped up, but it extended the length of the downturn. The same seems to be holding true to form here in this market. The more intervention, the lower we have gone in the stock market, and the worse things have gotten. That seems to be pretty hard to argue at this point.
By nationalizing the banks it solves much of the issues, it allows the government to effectively cut the middle man out, guarantee ALL deposits, and because of such to give out loans with lower rates and better terms. It also allows them to renegotiate mortgages. By most noted accounts many banks are insolvent and are surviving on borrowed monies (your account!). To continue to try to maintain shareholder equity flies in the face of any common sense, or logic.
The banks need to be nationalized immediately, it allows us all of the above and perhaps most of all, it allows us to move forward instead of backwards. A novel idea, I know, in government, but one, perhaps that should be seriously contemplated and then implemented.
Monday, February 09, 2009
Tuesday,,,
Unless Guithner comes up with something completely out of left field, buying FAZ or SKF should pay off nicely Tuesday. It's hard to imagine that the banks aren't going to sell off.
I also think there's a fairly good shot C is rendered worthless shareholder wise. If I had my way they would completely nationalize the banking system, wipe out ALL shareholder and bond holder value and start building a solid base from which to move UP from. The plan they are likely to reveal will just delay the inevitable. The banks are insolvent, its time to face the music. Look for most of the banks to retrace the recent moves. Of course, unless they come up with some half brained way to keep the stocks propped up. I just don't see it, but anything is possible.
Ones to watch for nice downward moves;
C
BAC
WFC
CYN
STI
STT
Despite several talking heads ra-ra pom pom waving, I also think MS is in a heap of trouble. They have TRILLIONS in toxic assets on their books from what I've read and I think its only a matter of time before they are back to single digits. But, for now the banks themselves probably are better bets for a short term down move because they are weakest of the weak.
I don't know, call me crazy, but so many people are saying that the market is showing great strength, yadda yadda. OK< fair enough, maybe so, but I see it more that the market has been propped up by the hope that the Fed would bail us out of this debacle. So, we'll see if Tuesday they sell the news, which is my guess, again subject to what news comes.
We're kicking butt, seriously, I gave POT and X short right off their tops Monday, plus our BIDU calls are pretty freakin' amazing! We are rocking both ways! That's the way we like it! Watch oil here, if it can't hold near $40 it may see $20s sooner rather than later, amazing, so much demand destruction, jeez! Asia is struggling, so not sure where demand for Oil is going to come from.
It's sad, and its unfortunate, but we really are in a heep of trouble.
Off to bed, see ya in the am!
RULE!
Waxie
I also think there's a fairly good shot C is rendered worthless shareholder wise. If I had my way they would completely nationalize the banking system, wipe out ALL shareholder and bond holder value and start building a solid base from which to move UP from. The plan they are likely to reveal will just delay the inevitable. The banks are insolvent, its time to face the music. Look for most of the banks to retrace the recent moves. Of course, unless they come up with some half brained way to keep the stocks propped up. I just don't see it, but anything is possible.
Ones to watch for nice downward moves;
C
BAC
WFC
CYN
STI
STT
Despite several talking heads ra-ra pom pom waving, I also think MS is in a heap of trouble. They have TRILLIONS in toxic assets on their books from what I've read and I think its only a matter of time before they are back to single digits. But, for now the banks themselves probably are better bets for a short term down move because they are weakest of the weak.
I don't know, call me crazy, but so many people are saying that the market is showing great strength, yadda yadda. OK< fair enough, maybe so, but I see it more that the market has been propped up by the hope that the Fed would bail us out of this debacle. So, we'll see if Tuesday they sell the news, which is my guess, again subject to what news comes.
We're kicking butt, seriously, I gave POT and X short right off their tops Monday, plus our BIDU calls are pretty freakin' amazing! We are rocking both ways! That's the way we like it! Watch oil here, if it can't hold near $40 it may see $20s sooner rather than later, amazing, so much demand destruction, jeez! Asia is struggling, so not sure where demand for Oil is going to come from.
It's sad, and its unfortunate, but we really are in a heep of trouble.
Off to bed, see ya in the am!
RULE!
Waxie
Sunday, February 08, 2009
NEW Book!
If you haven't preordered my new book yet, it's being shipped in a couple of weeks and I strongly urge you to order one NOW!
http://www.amazon.com/Rule-Your-Freakin-Retirement-Actively/dp/0312375751/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1234124447&sr=8-1
Or, just go to; amazon.com and punch in - Rule Your Freakin' Retirement
I'm very proud of the book, and its the first book I've seen that is timely about how to handle your Retirement account. It's a must read in these troubled times!
Order now, and let me know what ya think!
RULE YOUR FREAKIN' RETIREMENT!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
http://www.amazon.com/Rule-Your-Freakin-Retirement-Actively/dp/0312375751/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1234124447&sr=8-1
Or, just go to; amazon.com and punch in - Rule Your Freakin' Retirement
I'm very proud of the book, and its the first book I've seen that is timely about how to handle your Retirement account. It's a must read in these troubled times!
Order now, and let me know what ya think!
RULE YOUR FREAKIN' RETIREMENT!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
THIS WEEK...
Should be a great trading week, but direction wise isn't a sure thing.
My plan as of now is to sell all my longs into Guitner. So many pundits are all over last week's rally as though this is the "bottom". You've probably guessed it, but I view this action as nothing more than a Bear market rally, the notion of it being anything more is absurd. Now, it is possible that the master plan could garner some hope that would propel us higher short term. That's what I'm hoping happens, but I think your safest play is to short the news and use tight stops so if we do plow higher Monday post news that you just stop out. The other way, and safer way, to play it is to use the 10 am rule. That will allow you to play the break down or bust up. Just don't play it off the impulse reaction to news, wait til that gets sorted out.
Either way, I'm a seller before the news breaks. I got some emails about riding winners, and I pride myself in doing so, but you also don't want to overstay your welcome!
When you get 50%+ moves in a day or two on stocks you have to be willing to take a lot off the table, and/or tighten stops to avoid giving much back. It's a fine line, we need to take it on a case by case basis. We played the rumor on Thursday, buying FITB, BAC, FAS, etc. OK, BAC and FITB have moved at least 50% in a day, FAS a huge mover obviously as well. If it wasn't a news play we might be willing to ride
them even harder, but you know the oldest trend in the books, right? Buy the rumor, SELL the news! And, there's a better than average shot that that's what happens.
Now, there is that chance the news is just sooooo good that we rally even harder, so best play may be to just trail the stocks with stops (tight) so if the news comes and we tank you don't get caught in a bad place where BAC goes from $6s to $3s and you're a deer in a headlight. Setting stops allows you to take the emotion out of it. I can't stress how important that is, the market should be moving VERY quickly Monday and potentially throughout the week, so I would really try to avoid putting your account in a position where you are guessing. Setting stops allows you to avoid those issues.
GOod luck this week, lets catch some really nice moves! I'm hoping we get a nice pop early in the day into Guitner, should set the day up for a pretty whopper of a move late day, yummy!
RULE!
Waxie
My plan as of now is to sell all my longs into Guitner. So many pundits are all over last week's rally as though this is the "bottom". You've probably guessed it, but I view this action as nothing more than a Bear market rally, the notion of it being anything more is absurd. Now, it is possible that the master plan could garner some hope that would propel us higher short term. That's what I'm hoping happens, but I think your safest play is to short the news and use tight stops so if we do plow higher Monday post news that you just stop out. The other way, and safer way, to play it is to use the 10 am rule. That will allow you to play the break down or bust up. Just don't play it off the impulse reaction to news, wait til that gets sorted out.
Either way, I'm a seller before the news breaks. I got some emails about riding winners, and I pride myself in doing so, but you also don't want to overstay your welcome!
When you get 50%+ moves in a day or two on stocks you have to be willing to take a lot off the table, and/or tighten stops to avoid giving much back. It's a fine line, we need to take it on a case by case basis. We played the rumor on Thursday, buying FITB, BAC, FAS, etc. OK, BAC and FITB have moved at least 50% in a day, FAS a huge mover obviously as well. If it wasn't a news play we might be willing to ride
them even harder, but you know the oldest trend in the books, right? Buy the rumor, SELL the news! And, there's a better than average shot that that's what happens.
Now, there is that chance the news is just sooooo good that we rally even harder, so best play may be to just trail the stocks with stops (tight) so if the news comes and we tank you don't get caught in a bad place where BAC goes from $6s to $3s and you're a deer in a headlight. Setting stops allows you to take the emotion out of it. I can't stress how important that is, the market should be moving VERY quickly Monday and potentially throughout the week, so I would really try to avoid putting your account in a position where you are guessing. Setting stops allows you to avoid those issues.
GOod luck this week, lets catch some really nice moves! I'm hoping we get a nice pop early in the day into Guitner, should set the day up for a pretty whopper of a move late day, yummy!
RULE!
Waxie
Friday, February 06, 2009
SO sorry...
Dear all,
I just wanted to apologize before I head out on the weekend. So, SORRY!
I mean, FITB, FAS, BAC, WFC, PCLN and my market call for the day were HORRIBLE!
Just absolutely horrible of me. Wow, I can't believe how horrible these stocks performed today!
I really am sorry. I can't apologize enough.
So, there ya have it, I hope you accept my humble apology. I don't want to overdo it because I tell my kids that an apology only means something if you mean it and don't keep saying it!
So, I'll just say it one more time - I AM SO SORRY! Please forgive me for calling;
FAS long
BAC long
WFC long
FITB long
all yesterday...
And, I'll also apologizing for calling the market up a lot today.
Thank you in advance for accepting my apology and have a great weekend. Hopefully we can all recoup from the MASSIVE GAINS this week and do even better next week!
RULE!
Hehe, I couldn't resist, had a MONSTER week myself and so did many clients! Next week should be a GREAT trading week, babies, let's ROCK! *I may be going out of town, if I do I will try to post here, but I may be taking the week off from trading.
See ya on the other side of the weekend!
RULE!
:) WAXIE
*Best line of the day today? Ken Lewis, CEO of Bank of America being interviewed by Maria Bartarola - "Nobody executes better than we do!"
Hehe, that's a good one!
I just wanted to apologize before I head out on the weekend. So, SORRY!
I mean, FITB, FAS, BAC, WFC, PCLN and my market call for the day were HORRIBLE!
Just absolutely horrible of me. Wow, I can't believe how horrible these stocks performed today!
I really am sorry. I can't apologize enough.
So, there ya have it, I hope you accept my humble apology. I don't want to overdo it because I tell my kids that an apology only means something if you mean it and don't keep saying it!
So, I'll just say it one more time - I AM SO SORRY! Please forgive me for calling;
FAS long
BAC long
WFC long
FITB long
all yesterday...
And, I'll also apologizing for calling the market up a lot today.
Thank you in advance for accepting my apology and have a great weekend. Hopefully we can all recoup from the MASSIVE GAINS this week and do even better next week!
RULE!
Hehe, I couldn't resist, had a MONSTER week myself and so did many clients! Next week should be a GREAT trading week, babies, let's ROCK! *I may be going out of town, if I do I will try to post here, but I may be taking the week off from trading.
See ya on the other side of the weekend!
RULE!
:) WAXIE
*Best line of the day today? Ken Lewis, CEO of Bank of America being interviewed by Maria Bartarola - "Nobody executes better than we do!"
Hehe, that's a good one!
Thursday, February 05, 2009
BUSINESS..
More importantly, tomorrow should provide some VERY good trading opportunities.
We have the job #s, and no matter what they are, I expect us to close the day UP, or at least go green off any gap down. Geitner's "Financial Stability" Plan that is supposed to be unveiled Monday SHOULD get up some short covering and speculative buying.
If you play it, set stops and use proper money management. Probably best scenario is a gap down off the #s which I think should provide a very sweet gap entry.
Next week should be even more interesting. Man, this is some market, we are just completely news driven every day. Anyone says "BOO" and ka-powsa the market reacts jerky herky both ways!
A few people asked me to remark on the mark to market notion, or the notion of getting rid of it.
OK, I am just way too tired to get mega into it, but suffice to say its just another very poor idea. The market MUST be allowed to function independent of NEWS! As long as the movement is related to news as tight as it is now, there is simply no way we can get any kind of lasting rally.
Now, it is definately possible that they could come up with some hair brained fix it idea that actually gets people thinking they have it all figured out. BUT, suffice to say that if that happens it'll just set up one of the greatest shorting opps ever.
I have not set up the TOP TEN SHORTS of 2009 class yet because I need to see what we do here. I don't want to short and then get blown out on crazy news that rallies us, even if I don't think it'll last.
It's kinda funny, every day I get some dude who emails me "DOW 12,000 before 5000!" Hehe, first off I don't see that happening, but secondly- PLEASE LET THAT HAPPEN! PLEASE!
I would almost guarantee that if we went to 12,000 I would make so much money and my clients would make so much money it would be coming out of my buttocks. I would be blowing it out my nose, I would be...ok, enough...hehe.
I am a TRADER< folks. We are not investors! I am not attached to my long term projections! Please let us go DOw 12,000, please please please! That would be SOOOO good for us all. Yummy! Get GS to $250!!! Hehe! (Yes, I still think long term its one of the best shorts out there). Think about this, this is why trading rules.
OK, let's take GS. I've made a TON on GS short. A TON. Have I lost on it on a couple of trades? Sure, absolutely. But, I called GS to $50 when it was $150! It went down on that call $100! Now its back to nearly $100. Great! That just sets up another shorting opp low risk at some point in the not too distant future. I'm not ever taking GS short (the stock) and holding it for extended periods of time, that doesn't happen. Worst case is usually that I would have some puts on a stock like that and I'd make money on the 1st 3 or 4 put trades and then the last move, when the stock has finally bottomed, I will lose on that play. That's what a trader does, he/she takes the trade until it doesn't work anymore, has limited risk and moves on when/if wrong on that final trade. Getting stubborn is a good way to get cracked. I try not to get stubborn, so should you!
I'm long PCLN and BIDU and BAC and FAS and FITB here. Do you think I will hold them for the next 12 months? Of course not. Could I lose on them? ABSOLUTELY! I am wrong at times, believe it or not. So? Then I am wrong and I move on.
YOU have to become STONE, you have to have steel emotions, you have to be willing to wipe a losing trade out of your mind, open yourself up to the next WINNING trade!
Do you know the key to being a VERY RICH trader? It's very simple, and I'll tell you all, but you MUST promise me you will never repeat it, ok? If you do, I'll have to have you arrested, ok? I'll have to gag you and lock you in my basement, ok? :)
OK, here goes, here is the key to being a successful trader -
)))))))))))))))))))))))))
Ride your winners
Take SMALL losses and move on.
_______________________________________________
That's it, my friends, that's the key to financial freedom right there!
A lot of the money I've made over the years is simply because I am willing to ride my winners. Far too often I hear how "I got scared so I took a small gain because I didn't want to lose, and I missed the huge move, shoot!"
And, that same trader says of losers "I didn't want to take the loss, I thought it would come back, so I rode it all the way down!"
Remind YOU of anyone? If it does, then you now have the key to being RICH! All you have to do is reverse your pattern(s) and control your emotions. It's simple, but it takes practice and it takes developing a trust of your own instincts. I'm not the only person on earth who has good intuition. I may be better than most as a trader instinctually, but that's also what gives YOU all an edge. Because you get the benefit of my gut! YOU have to develop your own trading plans that work within the context of your trading style and portfolio management. I can not do that for you, that's why its meaningless what my actual trades were or weren't. I tell you guys and gals all the time, the picks themselves are the EASY part! I know some of you don't buy into that, but I am telling you it's a FACT. If you can learn and practice proper money management, if you can PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE YOUR PLAN and STICK TO YOUR PLAN, you should, and I believe you WILL make more money then you can possibly spend.
Don't believe me? OK, tough guy/gal, TRY IT! I dare ya! Go ahead, make my day!
And, then let me know how ya do! I think you will be very pleasantly surprised!
RULE!
Waxie
We have the job #s, and no matter what they are, I expect us to close the day UP, or at least go green off any gap down. Geitner's "Financial Stability" Plan that is supposed to be unveiled Monday SHOULD get up some short covering and speculative buying.
If you play it, set stops and use proper money management. Probably best scenario is a gap down off the #s which I think should provide a very sweet gap entry.
Next week should be even more interesting. Man, this is some market, we are just completely news driven every day. Anyone says "BOO" and ka-powsa the market reacts jerky herky both ways!
A few people asked me to remark on the mark to market notion, or the notion of getting rid of it.
OK, I am just way too tired to get mega into it, but suffice to say its just another very poor idea. The market MUST be allowed to function independent of NEWS! As long as the movement is related to news as tight as it is now, there is simply no way we can get any kind of lasting rally.
Now, it is definately possible that they could come up with some hair brained fix it idea that actually gets people thinking they have it all figured out. BUT, suffice to say that if that happens it'll just set up one of the greatest shorting opps ever.
I have not set up the TOP TEN SHORTS of 2009 class yet because I need to see what we do here. I don't want to short and then get blown out on crazy news that rallies us, even if I don't think it'll last.
It's kinda funny, every day I get some dude who emails me "DOW 12,000 before 5000!" Hehe, first off I don't see that happening, but secondly- PLEASE LET THAT HAPPEN! PLEASE!
I would almost guarantee that if we went to 12,000 I would make so much money and my clients would make so much money it would be coming out of my buttocks. I would be blowing it out my nose, I would be...ok, enough...hehe.
I am a TRADER< folks. We are not investors! I am not attached to my long term projections! Please let us go DOw 12,000, please please please! That would be SOOOO good for us all. Yummy! Get GS to $250!!! Hehe! (Yes, I still think long term its one of the best shorts out there). Think about this, this is why trading rules.
OK, let's take GS. I've made a TON on GS short. A TON. Have I lost on it on a couple of trades? Sure, absolutely. But, I called GS to $50 when it was $150! It went down on that call $100! Now its back to nearly $100. Great! That just sets up another shorting opp low risk at some point in the not too distant future. I'm not ever taking GS short (the stock) and holding it for extended periods of time, that doesn't happen. Worst case is usually that I would have some puts on a stock like that and I'd make money on the 1st 3 or 4 put trades and then the last move, when the stock has finally bottomed, I will lose on that play. That's what a trader does, he/she takes the trade until it doesn't work anymore, has limited risk and moves on when/if wrong on that final trade. Getting stubborn is a good way to get cracked. I try not to get stubborn, so should you!
I'm long PCLN and BIDU and BAC and FAS and FITB here. Do you think I will hold them for the next 12 months? Of course not. Could I lose on them? ABSOLUTELY! I am wrong at times, believe it or not. So? Then I am wrong and I move on.
YOU have to become STONE, you have to have steel emotions, you have to be willing to wipe a losing trade out of your mind, open yourself up to the next WINNING trade!
Do you know the key to being a VERY RICH trader? It's very simple, and I'll tell you all, but you MUST promise me you will never repeat it, ok? If you do, I'll have to have you arrested, ok? I'll have to gag you and lock you in my basement, ok? :)
OK, here goes, here is the key to being a successful trader -
)))))))))))))))))))))))))
Ride your winners
Take SMALL losses and move on.
_______________________________________________
That's it, my friends, that's the key to financial freedom right there!
A lot of the money I've made over the years is simply because I am willing to ride my winners. Far too often I hear how "I got scared so I took a small gain because I didn't want to lose, and I missed the huge move, shoot!"
And, that same trader says of losers "I didn't want to take the loss, I thought it would come back, so I rode it all the way down!"
Remind YOU of anyone? If it does, then you now have the key to being RICH! All you have to do is reverse your pattern(s) and control your emotions. It's simple, but it takes practice and it takes developing a trust of your own instincts. I'm not the only person on earth who has good intuition. I may be better than most as a trader instinctually, but that's also what gives YOU all an edge. Because you get the benefit of my gut! YOU have to develop your own trading plans that work within the context of your trading style and portfolio management. I can not do that for you, that's why its meaningless what my actual trades were or weren't. I tell you guys and gals all the time, the picks themselves are the EASY part! I know some of you don't buy into that, but I am telling you it's a FACT. If you can learn and practice proper money management, if you can PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE YOUR PLAN and STICK TO YOUR PLAN, you should, and I believe you WILL make more money then you can possibly spend.
Don't believe me? OK, tough guy/gal, TRY IT! I dare ya! Go ahead, make my day!
And, then let me know how ya do! I think you will be very pleasantly surprised!
RULE!
Waxie
Da proof is in da pudding...
It seems some people doubt da Waxie. Wowsa! Hehe. OK, well, here are my monthly results for the last few in my stock account, I'll post part of my futures acct. profits here as well. I can't guarantee these are 1000% accurate since I got them today from my brokerage today.
Sep-08 $472,943.13
Oct-08 $440,106.62
Nov-08 $1,268,946.63
Dec-08 $570,696.95
Jan-09 $396,225.60
Those are my trading profits for those months.
Now, I also made the following in my futures account, this is the email chain from today when I requested my P & L;
__________________________________________________________________________________
Right - it was $60,037.58
-----Original Message-----
From: mxxxxx@xxx.com [mailto:mxxxxxx@xxx.com]
Sent: Thursday, February 05, 2009 2:08 PM
To: Don Ogilvie
Subject: Re: I need my p & l for months; August through today
What was my balance in. Beg sept in stock acct or end if august? About 60k, right?
------Original Message------
From: Don Ogilvie
To: Mxxxxx@xxx.com
Subject: RE: I need my p & l for months; August through today
Sent: Feb 5, 2009 3:00 PM
HI Michael
I don't have P&L on Futures accounts, but you started in August with $8,002.37, and ended January with $232,560.32, and you wired in $50k, so I put you up about $174,557.95 there.
_______________________________________________________________________________
OK, this does not include the roughly $300,000 I believe I am up through today in February. Today I had a very nice day, very nice indeed!
Oh, and my futures acct. as of right now about $260,000.
___________________________________________________________________________________
If you are still skeptical, I don't know what to tell ya, I don't know what the laws are regarding false advertising since I've never done it, but I assume I'd be breaking them if I posted malicious lies in public.
As far as those who requested to see every trade I've made, hehe, well, I'm not posting all my "secrets",sorry. That's what I get paid a lot of money for.
OK, so for all of you who swore that if I was telling the truth you would sign up for our Ninja service for the year, I've kept my word, let's see if you have any integrity! :)
And, thanks to all those who sent the very supportive emails, I appreciate it. I post here as a service, I don't get paid to do it obviously.
And, hopefully you've all caught PCLN, which I posted the other day as a stock that should run into earnings, the stock is up dramatically, and the options I called for our Options Trader service are up over 50% in a few days. That's the power, baby, that's the power!
Today? Glad you asked, today we caught FAS, BAC, FITB, and BIDU. Tiny and Scott had other winners, I just know I made a mint, indeed!
And, that's being still sick and falling asleep at my computer. Now look, I don't make money on every trade, not even close. And, I don't make money every day. I've had my share of losing weeks and losing months. Trading isn't an exact science. It's not free money, it's not gambling and it's not to be taken lightly, you certainly can and many do lose their money. I happen to be very good at what I do, I trade my own money when I trade, and I believe I'm as good or better then anyone I've ever seen or heard of.
Our clients, many of you, when they stick to the rules and they don't get self destructive tend to make money, sometimes a lot of it. But, it's not for everyone, I would never say it is.
What I will say is that I believe in what I do, I believe Tiny is the BEST TA in the world, and I think Scott is fantastic.
There is a spiritual adage that talks about living in abundance, or living in envy and the negative. Frankly, I don't care what anyone else does or doesn't have. I have found that living in the moment is the goal, the minute I step into envy mode I'm done for. I don't have anything to prove to anyone but my kids. As long as they are happy, everything else is gravy. Having said that, in today's world, unfortunately, even people with integrity and who are honest, and both of them I take pride in, have to prove themselves out.
So, there ya go, folks. It's 100% true, I don't need to lie, and I don't need to post here, and you don't need to read this post. Life is all good.
On another note, today was a great day for me personally, I got final approval from the Board of Education in NYC to start my scholarship program so that kids who might otherwise not be able to attend college are going to get that chance through the Trend Fund Foundation (501C-3). If you'd like to donate anything, please email me at; waxie@trendfund.com, it's a very worthy cause, the schools are having problems, as are individuals, raising money for anything, and unfortunately things like college and our country's future are getting lost in the mix.
And, on another, another note, my 3rd book, RULE YOUR FREAKIN' RETIREMENT should be available for shipping in the next week to 10 days. I got the very 1st copy, hot off the press from St.Martin's Press! It rocks! You can order it on Amazon.com. VERY VERY sweet! I'm very proud of this book, it's the perfect book at the perfect time, it's all about taking control of your retirement, not being a passive and losing investor (and victim).
As far as the market goes, well, we look like we're getting that rally in financials into Gietner's bank bailout plan that's coming Monday. Unless there is some bad news, good chance we have follow through tomorrow to the upside. We'll see, I'm long FAS, MS, FITB and held a small lot of BAC overnight. I had 25,000 but sold 15,000 afterhours because the thing was up over .30 (like 8%) afterhours! I had to take most of it off, that's just too big a gap afterhours on no news for me not to take. If there's no news it may get $6s here, but this thing is so dead longer term, I don't want to risk a ton on these things. I'm very nervous holding this stuff overnight as I've discussed, I just don't think FITB can fall more than $1.64, so it's ok. Why? Because FITB is $1.64! It can't go to less than zero, hehe!
OK, folks, I'm tired, cranky and going to work out for the 1st time in 2 weeks. Making millions isn't fun if I become a blobhead!
Remember, it's all good, life is short, trade hard and make sure you don't stay too skeptical. Wink, wink, nod nod, say it again!
RULEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
And, please feel free to send me a NICE email. I get at least 20 to 1 nice to not nice, but somehow the nasty ones get very, well, nasty. Lighten up, folks, I can take it, but at least speak the TRUTH! I do! RULEEEEEEEEEEE!!!
Waxie
Sep-08 $472,943.13
Oct-08 $440,106.62
Nov-08 $1,268,946.63
Dec-08 $570,696.95
Jan-09 $396,225.60
Those are my trading profits for those months.
Now, I also made the following in my futures account, this is the email chain from today when I requested my P & L;
__________________________________________________________________________________
Right - it was $60,037.58
-----Original Message-----
From: mxxxxx@xxx.com [mailto:mxxxxxx@xxx.com]
Sent: Thursday, February 05, 2009 2:08 PM
To: Don Ogilvie
Subject: Re: I need my p & l for months; August through today
What was my balance in. Beg sept in stock acct or end if august? About 60k, right?
------Original Message------
From: Don Ogilvie
To: Mxxxxx@xxx.com
Subject: RE: I need my p & l for months; August through today
Sent: Feb 5, 2009 3:00 PM
HI Michael
I don't have P&L on Futures accounts, but you started in August with $8,002.37, and ended January with $232,560.32, and you wired in $50k, so I put you up about $174,557.95 there.
_______________________________________________________________________________
OK, this does not include the roughly $300,000 I believe I am up through today in February. Today I had a very nice day, very nice indeed!
Oh, and my futures acct. as of right now about $260,000.
___________________________________________________________________________________
If you are still skeptical, I don't know what to tell ya, I don't know what the laws are regarding false advertising since I've never done it, but I assume I'd be breaking them if I posted malicious lies in public.
As far as those who requested to see every trade I've made, hehe, well, I'm not posting all my "secrets",sorry. That's what I get paid a lot of money for.
OK, so for all of you who swore that if I was telling the truth you would sign up for our Ninja service for the year, I've kept my word, let's see if you have any integrity! :)
And, thanks to all those who sent the very supportive emails, I appreciate it. I post here as a service, I don't get paid to do it obviously.
And, hopefully you've all caught PCLN, which I posted the other day as a stock that should run into earnings, the stock is up dramatically, and the options I called for our Options Trader service are up over 50% in a few days. That's the power, baby, that's the power!
Today? Glad you asked, today we caught FAS, BAC, FITB, and BIDU. Tiny and Scott had other winners, I just know I made a mint, indeed!
And, that's being still sick and falling asleep at my computer. Now look, I don't make money on every trade, not even close. And, I don't make money every day. I've had my share of losing weeks and losing months. Trading isn't an exact science. It's not free money, it's not gambling and it's not to be taken lightly, you certainly can and many do lose their money. I happen to be very good at what I do, I trade my own money when I trade, and I believe I'm as good or better then anyone I've ever seen or heard of.
Our clients, many of you, when they stick to the rules and they don't get self destructive tend to make money, sometimes a lot of it. But, it's not for everyone, I would never say it is.
What I will say is that I believe in what I do, I believe Tiny is the BEST TA in the world, and I think Scott is fantastic.
There is a spiritual adage that talks about living in abundance, or living in envy and the negative. Frankly, I don't care what anyone else does or doesn't have. I have found that living in the moment is the goal, the minute I step into envy mode I'm done for. I don't have anything to prove to anyone but my kids. As long as they are happy, everything else is gravy. Having said that, in today's world, unfortunately, even people with integrity and who are honest, and both of them I take pride in, have to prove themselves out.
So, there ya go, folks. It's 100% true, I don't need to lie, and I don't need to post here, and you don't need to read this post. Life is all good.
On another note, today was a great day for me personally, I got final approval from the Board of Education in NYC to start my scholarship program so that kids who might otherwise not be able to attend college are going to get that chance through the Trend Fund Foundation (501C-3). If you'd like to donate anything, please email me at; waxie@trendfund.com, it's a very worthy cause, the schools are having problems, as are individuals, raising money for anything, and unfortunately things like college and our country's future are getting lost in the mix.
And, on another, another note, my 3rd book, RULE YOUR FREAKIN' RETIREMENT should be available for shipping in the next week to 10 days. I got the very 1st copy, hot off the press from St.Martin's Press! It rocks! You can order it on Amazon.com. VERY VERY sweet! I'm very proud of this book, it's the perfect book at the perfect time, it's all about taking control of your retirement, not being a passive and losing investor (and victim).
As far as the market goes, well, we look like we're getting that rally in financials into Gietner's bank bailout plan that's coming Monday. Unless there is some bad news, good chance we have follow through tomorrow to the upside. We'll see, I'm long FAS, MS, FITB and held a small lot of BAC overnight. I had 25,000 but sold 15,000 afterhours because the thing was up over .30 (like 8%) afterhours! I had to take most of it off, that's just too big a gap afterhours on no news for me not to take. If there's no news it may get $6s here, but this thing is so dead longer term, I don't want to risk a ton on these things. I'm very nervous holding this stuff overnight as I've discussed, I just don't think FITB can fall more than $1.64, so it's ok. Why? Because FITB is $1.64! It can't go to less than zero, hehe!
OK, folks, I'm tired, cranky and going to work out for the 1st time in 2 weeks. Making millions isn't fun if I become a blobhead!
Remember, it's all good, life is short, trade hard and make sure you don't stay too skeptical. Wink, wink, nod nod, say it again!
RULEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
And, please feel free to send me a NICE email. I get at least 20 to 1 nice to not nice, but somehow the nasty ones get very, well, nasty. Lighten up, folks, I can take it, but at least speak the TRUTH! I do! RULEEEEEEEEEEE!!!
Waxie
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
Tough sledding...
Tell ya, I thought we would rally today, but I went long GOOG (good), and some banks (bad). The banks are just off limits here other than like 1 hour trades, they are just diseased. Having said that, it's also tough to hop in at this late juncture on the short side. I think BAC and STI are both trading as though they are next to see the big zero, but do I really want to short BAC at $5.25? Hmm, not really. Our PCLN calls look good, with earnings Thursday and every other internet retailer going up huge post earnings, I think it should see $70s here unless we totally tank. I don't think we tank here with the Fed ready to step in. I'm kinda surprised the banks aren't rallying, but thats how horrid they are.
I want to discuss something important here briefly. I'm still sickish and really tired, so it'll be short.
I post a lot of different thoughts and trading ideas here for free. I enjoy sharing my thoughts with you guys and gals and appreciate most of the feedback. The idiotic bashing ones are fine to, I just laugh. Thing is, I'm making a TON of money in this market, so are MANY clients. Having said that, I can't publish actual plays here, if you are trading off ideas I post here I gotta tell ya, you are nutty. You're getting late to the party in most cases. Why? Because my paying clients deserve the info 1st and foremost, and that should be obvious.
Regardless, we are TRADERS. It's funny, I got a comment here saying basically "haha, DOW will see 12,000 before it sees 5000 moron". That's not an exact quote but that was the intent for sure. Does anyone here think that I wouldn't be ECSTATIC if the DOW saw 12,000? You're nuts if you think that. I'm a TRADER. I can make money no matter what the market does, and in fact its a LOT easier to make money in an uptrending market as opposed to a Bear market. Bear markets are good because you can make bundles FAST, the market historically drops a lot faster then it moves higher in general. I'm not attached to my predictions, not at all. I would LOVE to me wrong about my DOW 4500 call. Trust me, no one would be happier. I would get a few hahas, but ultimately me and my clients (some of you) would have the last laugh because trust me, if the DOW is 12,000 I would bet $1,000,000 I'm cashing in LARGE. Yeah, I am that good. My record speaks for itself. I've made roughly 3.5 MIL in the last 4 months. I started this run with ROUHGLY $60,000. I'm happy to provide proof if need be.
I do this because I enjoy it and I enjoy helping people. So, what's my point? My point overall is that you guys and gals should try the Chat Room (Ninja service) even if its one time to see if its for you, and also it's not a good idea to take trades for more than very short term, at best, based on much of what I write here. I had a post the other day about Berkshire and my belief they could go bankrupt. That's legit, but I have NOT shorted it yet, I am a trader and I always look for the right spot. I'm not always right, but I try to be.
You'd be amazed, I get emails saying that GS isn't $10! Yeah, it's not, but I only called it to $50 when it was $150 and it hit $50. I guess I suck. Perhaps, or perhaps you need to remember that a TRADER uses proper money management skills and protective stops to avoid big losses. Don't get stuck on ideas, that's bad trading, folks. Good trading is, well, TRADING. Means you get in, get out, take small losses and take big gains when the candy is passed. it doesn't mean you ride GS from $150 to $50 and then back to $90! That's not trading, thats INVESTING to the downside. That's NOT recommended - EVER!
I was long today, but I'm still VERY bearish overall. Being bearish (or bullish) doesn't mean you invest that way, nothing goes in a straight line, up or down. Not even my account, which takes losses sometimes, but it is, after all, a marathon, and not a sprint. This isn't Vegas and Dan Tanna ain't showing up anytime soon!
RULE and ROCK and Ka-chingo!
WAXIE
I want to discuss something important here briefly. I'm still sickish and really tired, so it'll be short.
I post a lot of different thoughts and trading ideas here for free. I enjoy sharing my thoughts with you guys and gals and appreciate most of the feedback. The idiotic bashing ones are fine to, I just laugh. Thing is, I'm making a TON of money in this market, so are MANY clients. Having said that, I can't publish actual plays here, if you are trading off ideas I post here I gotta tell ya, you are nutty. You're getting late to the party in most cases. Why? Because my paying clients deserve the info 1st and foremost, and that should be obvious.
Regardless, we are TRADERS. It's funny, I got a comment here saying basically "haha, DOW will see 12,000 before it sees 5000 moron". That's not an exact quote but that was the intent for sure. Does anyone here think that I wouldn't be ECSTATIC if the DOW saw 12,000? You're nuts if you think that. I'm a TRADER. I can make money no matter what the market does, and in fact its a LOT easier to make money in an uptrending market as opposed to a Bear market. Bear markets are good because you can make bundles FAST, the market historically drops a lot faster then it moves higher in general. I'm not attached to my predictions, not at all. I would LOVE to me wrong about my DOW 4500 call. Trust me, no one would be happier. I would get a few hahas, but ultimately me and my clients (some of you) would have the last laugh because trust me, if the DOW is 12,000 I would bet $1,000,000 I'm cashing in LARGE. Yeah, I am that good. My record speaks for itself. I've made roughly 3.5 MIL in the last 4 months. I started this run with ROUHGLY $60,000. I'm happy to provide proof if need be.
I do this because I enjoy it and I enjoy helping people. So, what's my point? My point overall is that you guys and gals should try the Chat Room (Ninja service) even if its one time to see if its for you, and also it's not a good idea to take trades for more than very short term, at best, based on much of what I write here. I had a post the other day about Berkshire and my belief they could go bankrupt. That's legit, but I have NOT shorted it yet, I am a trader and I always look for the right spot. I'm not always right, but I try to be.
You'd be amazed, I get emails saying that GS isn't $10! Yeah, it's not, but I only called it to $50 when it was $150 and it hit $50. I guess I suck. Perhaps, or perhaps you need to remember that a TRADER uses proper money management skills and protective stops to avoid big losses. Don't get stuck on ideas, that's bad trading, folks. Good trading is, well, TRADING. Means you get in, get out, take small losses and take big gains when the candy is passed. it doesn't mean you ride GS from $150 to $50 and then back to $90! That's not trading, thats INVESTING to the downside. That's NOT recommended - EVER!
I was long today, but I'm still VERY bearish overall. Being bearish (or bullish) doesn't mean you invest that way, nothing goes in a straight line, up or down. Not even my account, which takes losses sometimes, but it is, after all, a marathon, and not a sprint. This isn't Vegas and Dan Tanna ain't showing up anytime soon!
RULE and ROCK and Ka-chingo!
WAXIE
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