Lately it seems nearly every Monday is a TREND day, usually UP. The fades seem to be awful on Mondays.
I have a gut feeling that if we get a decent size gap UP today it's fadeable, with a 10 am rule stop. I wouldn't bet the house on that, its just a gut feeling and not always right (nothing is), but particularly if we gap up over 1100 on the S & P I would have to take that short WITH STOPS. If I lose, I lose, but my gut says we're not getting a major trend day MOnday and if thats the case then even if we are choppy there should be a fade at the open either way.
HOWEVER, if we open fairly flat, then the play becomes much softer, meaning if I play the fade I'll be playing it pretty small more then likely. For futures traders I would use same 10 am rule as I think a gap up even of 2 or 4 points on the ES should be a fade, again with STOPS.
Tough week to predict here. Asia is CRUSHING higher, so we should have some strength at the open and again its possible we just zoom higher and see new highs here, so if 10 am rule reverses our positions so be it. I'm willing to cede a small loss for a potentially bigger gain.
Let's see what shakes, and early this week I plan on going VERY slow here.
Also, if you want to attend the FREE class Tuesday at 7:30 pm EST, please email me; waxie@trendfund.com
Thanks and see ya Tuesday!
RULE!
Waxie
Sunday, November 29, 2009
MONDAY NIGHT IS - GREEN SUCCESS NIGHT on Trend Success...
Monday night is my 5th online radio show - TREND SUCCESS
And, it's our GREEN SUCCESS show featuring some industry leaders in the GREEN industry sector. Learn how to be a success in one of the fastest growing and most exciting and rewarding field out there.
Monday night from 7 to 8 pm EST we'll talk to (3) leaders in the Green sector and we'll take call ins as well. Please check out the show (yeah, I know, its not stocks, but its cool and I usually throw in some stock stuff at the end and beginning).
Check it out at; www.chataboutit.com/about/trend-success
7 to 8 pm EST
Trend Success for me is very exciting and rewarding and I'm enjoying doing it immensely. It's something I'm passionate about, so check it out and let me know what you think. We have some really cool shows upcoming with some amazing guests. This week's show should be very informative and well worth your time to check out.
www.chataboutit.com/about/trend-success
During the show, dial in to say hi or ask questions of me or the guests;
1-877-242-8212
or email me at - waxie@trendfund.com
Rule!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
*Also check out our FREE class on Tuesday 7:30 to 9:00+ We'll go til we drop...
Email me @ waxie@trendfund.com
And, it's our GREEN SUCCESS show featuring some industry leaders in the GREEN industry sector. Learn how to be a success in one of the fastest growing and most exciting and rewarding field out there.
Monday night from 7 to 8 pm EST we'll talk to (3) leaders in the Green sector and we'll take call ins as well. Please check out the show (yeah, I know, its not stocks, but its cool and I usually throw in some stock stuff at the end and beginning).
Check it out at; www.chataboutit.com/about/trend-success
7 to 8 pm EST
Trend Success for me is very exciting and rewarding and I'm enjoying doing it immensely. It's something I'm passionate about, so check it out and let me know what you think. We have some really cool shows upcoming with some amazing guests. This week's show should be very informative and well worth your time to check out.
www.chataboutit.com/about/trend-success
During the show, dial in to say hi or ask questions of me or the guests;
1-877-242-8212
or email me at - waxie@trendfund.com
Rule!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
*Also check out our FREE class on Tuesday 7:30 to 9:00+ We'll go til we drop...
Email me @ waxie@trendfund.com
Saturday, November 28, 2009
DECEMBER MUSINGS...
Holidays are many things to many people. They are a time of family, friends, rejoicing and sadness. A time for reflecting, and new beginnings. I grew up not loving the holidays, frankly I loathed them, they were almost always a time of disappointment and sadness. We didn't have much often times and there were many years when we got IOU's as presents. IOU's that were never made good on. It wasn't because my parents didn't want to make good on them, it was because they mostly just didn't have the means to make good. I also remember fondly spending time with my large extended family and that meant lots of love, lots of food and often lots of fighting. I always wondered why there seemed to be more fighting at these family gatherings then at any other family functions or celebrations. Watching the TV in Cincy where I am this Thanksgiving with my family and of course my amazing kids I finally figured it out. The local news had stories of arrests and family violence all over it and I have to assume much more then usual. Why? EXPECTATIONS...
We expect to have great loving times with our families and extended families this time of year. We expect to celebrate. We expect nice gifts, and we expect that good times will be had by all. And, when those expectations are not met often times people get angry, or sad, or hurt. And, when many of us have these feelings we want to do something with it, so often times people act out and lash out, either to themselves (the suicide rate during the Holidays is much higher then any other time of year) or to others, particularly those that they care about most, since the more you care the more you care and the stronger the feelings, thus the stronger the reactions.
People often (and I'm certainly one of them btw) react without thinking, and sometimes without thinking of the consequences. One of the wisest things anyone ever said to me in my life is that sometimes the best thing you can do when you feel the most is...NOTHING. I've had to practice that in a myriad of ways. I grew up a "hothead" and I didn't really pay attention to what might happen after my hothead reaction. Friends were lost, family felt hurt, and most of all, I suffered due to my own inability to comprehend that there are always consequences - always.
In poker they call it "tilting". In trading we call it "losing your shirt". In life we call it "losing", period and it could mean a whole host of things. Because life is indeed bigger then a poker game, or whether GOOGLE (GOOG) goes up or down, for you or against you. It's not profit vs loss, it's life and the results of your actions far extend that one hand, that one trade, or any 100 of either. Life effects your family, your friends, your kids, your clients, your employer or employees. Life actions are bigger then these.
Part of growing up, rites of passage to adulthood usually include invaluable, and often painful lessons. Through these lessons we try and hopefully eventually succeed at learning enough to not continue to make these mistakes. I've said many times before that the smart man/woman learns from his/her own mistakes, the wise man learns from others mistakes so that he/she never has to make them themselves.
I tell my clients that one of the best things I can offer (and feel I do) is that most of the mistakes they may make as traders I've already made for them. So I can teach them what I've done wrong so hopefully they don't have to go through it themselves. Sometimes, though, it doesn't matter what I've done wrong (or right), sometimes they need to go through it themselves anyway. Sometimes they learn from them and stop doing them, and other times they don't. It's said (I didn't coin it) that insanity is making the same mistake again and expecting a different result.
The same can be said, I've learned, about making the same good act, it works positively and leads often to the same or similar good result.
I've had a pretty amazing life. Sometimes it has seemed surreal. I'm one of the very lucky people, and very ridiculous people to have gone from rags to riches, and then nearly back to rags, and who has had my life story optioned, been able to live many of my dreams (there are quite a few left) and who is considered by most anyone who knows me as someone that people can rely on. I'm also known as a tad eccentric, kooky, prone to drama (hey, I'm a writer), and someone who has a hard head. Someone who has made some mistakes that I've learned from, and some that apparently I haven't...yet.
One of the great things about life is that it comes in bunches and every day truly can be a new beginning. Every holiday season can be a new chapter. I watch my kids grow up, I see them experience their ups and downs. Thankfully it's mainly ups, but I know that as they get older they will have to experience many joys and some hard lessons. There is only so much I can do to prevent the tough times in life. When my mother died last year around this time they saw me cry for the first time ever. Since I grew up where everything was just thrown out there, and all the kids knew basically everything and all of us on some level took the hardships on, I've tried to shelter them from almost all of my own struggles, and certainly know that they are kids and kids should get kid info. They don't need to know, nor should they, if I have a horrible day trading, they don't need to know if I'm feeling down cause some woman rejected me (it has happened often, suffice to say), or cause I'm worried about money (that happens often as well), or because I made a bad business deal, or dealt with a crazy situation, or person. But, they did need to know about their grandmother dying, and they certainly did need to attend the funeral. And, while I didn't plan it that way, they did need to see that daddy isn't unshakeable, nor superman (I'm most certainly not). Being a single dad is the greatest thing I've ever done in my life, and the hardest at times.
And, again, one of the best things I've learned, and the most profound, is that often the best thing to do is - nothing. Nothing. Life just needs to sometimes play itself out.
As a trader I teach and I've learned that every trade, every day and every year long term is a new beginning. Old trades are old trades and need to be left behind. There is no need to cry, as they say, over spilt milk. You can't do anything about a bad trade other then learn from it. Sometimes thats hard for a trader, its sometimes hard for me. I've bitched and moaned and gotten angry, felt horrible, frustrated, down on bad trades, or even good ones that turned out bad, and sometimes even ones that were good but I knew shoulda been better. Shoulda, woulda coulda = no truer words have ever been spoken for a trader, and a fisherman.
The way I grew up, you always react when someone attacks you. I grew up on the streets, so to speak and literally at times. Very raw and very real. I've had people attack me physically and on the internet. When you are a (very small) public figure (of sorts) people usually have strong feelings one way or another about you. I remember when my first infomercial came out, some people sent me hate mail and email, some were jealous, some people felt I inspired them. It's a mixed bag. As a dramatist and director of stage and film I've often told an actor that if you are going to F-up, F-up LARGE. Don't shy away from things, and I try not to. I had my life threatened many times years ago when I called the crash that happened and I bragged, perhaps foolishly at times in retrospect, that I and my clients were profiting from the downturn. It was marketing, but it did make some people angry because if you're losing money then more often then not you want to blame someone for it.
Growing up as a "victim" at times, a victim of circumstance, I try to live my life without being a victim. I tell my clients what I've heard "there are no victims, only volunteers". As a kid we have no choice in a lot of things, and we can't leave if our parents suck, or we get abused in other ways. As an adult we have choices and we can stay, or leave, or best - learn from the experience and move our lives forward.
I talk a lot about integrity and honesty and if there is one thing that I hope my kids learn from me, it's that their integrity has more meaning then most anything they will have as they move forward in thier lives. But integrity comes from within and it comes from stripping away the layers of muck that are often heaped upon us growing up, I think.
I'm rambling at this point I am sure, but I am waiting for my family to get ready for dinner and for us to go out as a family tonight. That makes me thankful. I have many good friends and lots of great family. Growing up I couldn't say that at times.
And, I'm thankful that I know that I can be charitable and have fresh beginnings each and every day as a trader, and in my life.
December is a great time of year for me in my life now. The holidays are filled with laughter and joy. My kids are very happy, and my family is mostly happy. My friends enjoy getting cards from us and we enjoy sharing.
I also enjoy sharing with my clients. Most of the time December provides amazing profit opportunities for us Traders. I've had some of my very best trades and times trading during Decemember and into January. It's also a great time to reflect, and to be charitable. I started the Trend Fund Foundation, a 501C-3 years ago becuase I believe that one of the best things you can do in life is give something to someone who has less then you. Anyone reading this blog, for the most part, has a lot more then a lot of people. If you're reading a blog written by a trader then chances are you have some money, even if its a few $1000. That's more then someone around you.
How the hell did I end up here in writing this, I can't tell ya. I try not to edit these blogs too much because if I do then they are all marketing and while I hope you all sign up for a service (hey, it is a business after all), I'm just as happy if you send me a nice email, or silently get something out of what I share.
The best email I've gotten all year and probably in a very long time I got a couple months ago from a former client who I'll call "Mike". Last year around this time Mike wrote me and said that he was contemplating suicide. He had lost his job, had very little money and felt ashamed that he couldn't support his family. He also felt that he couldn't go on in his life. I don't know about anyone else here, but I've felt that way several times in my life. I have strong dramatic feelings, so I tend to feel things, well strongly. Over the years people tell me I've "mellowed" and that's true. I am fairly level much of the time, though not all. It's better that way I've learned, at least for me. And, as a trader being level is definately a good thing. I remember the day Alan Greenspan did a .50 basis rate hike and the market spiked crazy higher in a milisecond and I was eating lunch and spit it out. I was short everything and anything, for well more then I should have. I broke my own rules, which I do at times, and when I do I usually regret it. I was way way way overly bearish. I lost a literal ton of money in a matter of minutes, and there was nothing I could do. I no longer have the noise on my computer when I trade in terms of ringing when my stocks go up or down, cause that day the noise was deafening. I tried to stop out of things but by the time I did it was near the top of the move and I couldn't do a dang thing to stop it. It was the antithesis of printing money, it was my money being sucked out of my account, like a vaccum. Whoosh!
Well, back to Mike. I told Mike that money wasn't everything, I shared some of myself and I told him he needed to get help from a professional. I'm a trader, not a therapist or mental health professional. I may have passed abnormal therapy and taken some courses, but I'm not qualified to help someone in that way. I wrote Mike a long reply and I tried to provide the only thing I could, which is my experience of the times I've been down the worst and thought the worst. My experience when I've thought that I couldn't deal with life, that it was way bigger then I could handle.
These days I've spoken to a lot of friends, family and clients who have and do feel the same way. Cliche as it is, life ain't easy sometimes. And, maintaining one's integrity when its darkest is always the hardest. People do lots of things they might not normally do when they are most desperate. But, there are certain things that are final and that you can't come back from. Obviously death is one of them.
Well, happy endings, Mike wrote me and shared his experience and thanked me for my "help". He's gotten a job, its not the job he wanted, nor is it as good as the one he lost, but he's supporting his family as best he can and he is feeling much better. He's gotten the help he seems to need, at least from what he was kind of enough to share with me.
Thing is, Decemember is a time when we experience a lot of things, good and bad. For me, it really is about new beginnings. New beginnings as a trader, as a business man, as an artist, as a friend and as family member, and father.
Thank you all for listening over the years, or just for today, and thanks for sharing some of yourself with me at times. The human condition isn't easy often, there is one choice we all make every day. Do I try to be helpful today, or do I try to be hurtful to my fellows, and to myself.
I will end it by saying that I have a good friend who once told me that resentment is like peeing down your own pants, you're the only one who feels it, and that pain is a part of life, misery is a personal choice.
Feel free to email me or send me your experiences and your thoughts as always. It'll all remain confidential unless you say otherwise.
And, thanks "Mike" for I know you are reading and I appreciate the gift you gave me, it keeps me doing what I do and trying to be of service while also trying to earn an honest buck.
RULE
Michael "Waxie" Parness
We expect to have great loving times with our families and extended families this time of year. We expect to celebrate. We expect nice gifts, and we expect that good times will be had by all. And, when those expectations are not met often times people get angry, or sad, or hurt. And, when many of us have these feelings we want to do something with it, so often times people act out and lash out, either to themselves (the suicide rate during the Holidays is much higher then any other time of year) or to others, particularly those that they care about most, since the more you care the more you care and the stronger the feelings, thus the stronger the reactions.
People often (and I'm certainly one of them btw) react without thinking, and sometimes without thinking of the consequences. One of the wisest things anyone ever said to me in my life is that sometimes the best thing you can do when you feel the most is...NOTHING. I've had to practice that in a myriad of ways. I grew up a "hothead" and I didn't really pay attention to what might happen after my hothead reaction. Friends were lost, family felt hurt, and most of all, I suffered due to my own inability to comprehend that there are always consequences - always.
In poker they call it "tilting". In trading we call it "losing your shirt". In life we call it "losing", period and it could mean a whole host of things. Because life is indeed bigger then a poker game, or whether GOOGLE (GOOG) goes up or down, for you or against you. It's not profit vs loss, it's life and the results of your actions far extend that one hand, that one trade, or any 100 of either. Life effects your family, your friends, your kids, your clients, your employer or employees. Life actions are bigger then these.
Part of growing up, rites of passage to adulthood usually include invaluable, and often painful lessons. Through these lessons we try and hopefully eventually succeed at learning enough to not continue to make these mistakes. I've said many times before that the smart man/woman learns from his/her own mistakes, the wise man learns from others mistakes so that he/she never has to make them themselves.
I tell my clients that one of the best things I can offer (and feel I do) is that most of the mistakes they may make as traders I've already made for them. So I can teach them what I've done wrong so hopefully they don't have to go through it themselves. Sometimes, though, it doesn't matter what I've done wrong (or right), sometimes they need to go through it themselves anyway. Sometimes they learn from them and stop doing them, and other times they don't. It's said (I didn't coin it) that insanity is making the same mistake again and expecting a different result.
The same can be said, I've learned, about making the same good act, it works positively and leads often to the same or similar good result.
I've had a pretty amazing life. Sometimes it has seemed surreal. I'm one of the very lucky people, and very ridiculous people to have gone from rags to riches, and then nearly back to rags, and who has had my life story optioned, been able to live many of my dreams (there are quite a few left) and who is considered by most anyone who knows me as someone that people can rely on. I'm also known as a tad eccentric, kooky, prone to drama (hey, I'm a writer), and someone who has a hard head. Someone who has made some mistakes that I've learned from, and some that apparently I haven't...yet.
One of the great things about life is that it comes in bunches and every day truly can be a new beginning. Every holiday season can be a new chapter. I watch my kids grow up, I see them experience their ups and downs. Thankfully it's mainly ups, but I know that as they get older they will have to experience many joys and some hard lessons. There is only so much I can do to prevent the tough times in life. When my mother died last year around this time they saw me cry for the first time ever. Since I grew up where everything was just thrown out there, and all the kids knew basically everything and all of us on some level took the hardships on, I've tried to shelter them from almost all of my own struggles, and certainly know that they are kids and kids should get kid info. They don't need to know, nor should they, if I have a horrible day trading, they don't need to know if I'm feeling down cause some woman rejected me (it has happened often, suffice to say), or cause I'm worried about money (that happens often as well), or because I made a bad business deal, or dealt with a crazy situation, or person. But, they did need to know about their grandmother dying, and they certainly did need to attend the funeral. And, while I didn't plan it that way, they did need to see that daddy isn't unshakeable, nor superman (I'm most certainly not). Being a single dad is the greatest thing I've ever done in my life, and the hardest at times.
And, again, one of the best things I've learned, and the most profound, is that often the best thing to do is - nothing. Nothing. Life just needs to sometimes play itself out.
As a trader I teach and I've learned that every trade, every day and every year long term is a new beginning. Old trades are old trades and need to be left behind. There is no need to cry, as they say, over spilt milk. You can't do anything about a bad trade other then learn from it. Sometimes thats hard for a trader, its sometimes hard for me. I've bitched and moaned and gotten angry, felt horrible, frustrated, down on bad trades, or even good ones that turned out bad, and sometimes even ones that were good but I knew shoulda been better. Shoulda, woulda coulda = no truer words have ever been spoken for a trader, and a fisherman.
The way I grew up, you always react when someone attacks you. I grew up on the streets, so to speak and literally at times. Very raw and very real. I've had people attack me physically and on the internet. When you are a (very small) public figure (of sorts) people usually have strong feelings one way or another about you. I remember when my first infomercial came out, some people sent me hate mail and email, some were jealous, some people felt I inspired them. It's a mixed bag. As a dramatist and director of stage and film I've often told an actor that if you are going to F-up, F-up LARGE. Don't shy away from things, and I try not to. I had my life threatened many times years ago when I called the crash that happened and I bragged, perhaps foolishly at times in retrospect, that I and my clients were profiting from the downturn. It was marketing, but it did make some people angry because if you're losing money then more often then not you want to blame someone for it.
Growing up as a "victim" at times, a victim of circumstance, I try to live my life without being a victim. I tell my clients what I've heard "there are no victims, only volunteers". As a kid we have no choice in a lot of things, and we can't leave if our parents suck, or we get abused in other ways. As an adult we have choices and we can stay, or leave, or best - learn from the experience and move our lives forward.
I talk a lot about integrity and honesty and if there is one thing that I hope my kids learn from me, it's that their integrity has more meaning then most anything they will have as they move forward in thier lives. But integrity comes from within and it comes from stripping away the layers of muck that are often heaped upon us growing up, I think.
I'm rambling at this point I am sure, but I am waiting for my family to get ready for dinner and for us to go out as a family tonight. That makes me thankful. I have many good friends and lots of great family. Growing up I couldn't say that at times.
And, I'm thankful that I know that I can be charitable and have fresh beginnings each and every day as a trader, and in my life.
December is a great time of year for me in my life now. The holidays are filled with laughter and joy. My kids are very happy, and my family is mostly happy. My friends enjoy getting cards from us and we enjoy sharing.
I also enjoy sharing with my clients. Most of the time December provides amazing profit opportunities for us Traders. I've had some of my very best trades and times trading during Decemember and into January. It's also a great time to reflect, and to be charitable. I started the Trend Fund Foundation, a 501C-3 years ago becuase I believe that one of the best things you can do in life is give something to someone who has less then you. Anyone reading this blog, for the most part, has a lot more then a lot of people. If you're reading a blog written by a trader then chances are you have some money, even if its a few $1000. That's more then someone around you.
How the hell did I end up here in writing this, I can't tell ya. I try not to edit these blogs too much because if I do then they are all marketing and while I hope you all sign up for a service (hey, it is a business after all), I'm just as happy if you send me a nice email, or silently get something out of what I share.
The best email I've gotten all year and probably in a very long time I got a couple months ago from a former client who I'll call "Mike". Last year around this time Mike wrote me and said that he was contemplating suicide. He had lost his job, had very little money and felt ashamed that he couldn't support his family. He also felt that he couldn't go on in his life. I don't know about anyone else here, but I've felt that way several times in my life. I have strong dramatic feelings, so I tend to feel things, well strongly. Over the years people tell me I've "mellowed" and that's true. I am fairly level much of the time, though not all. It's better that way I've learned, at least for me. And, as a trader being level is definately a good thing. I remember the day Alan Greenspan did a .50 basis rate hike and the market spiked crazy higher in a milisecond and I was eating lunch and spit it out. I was short everything and anything, for well more then I should have. I broke my own rules, which I do at times, and when I do I usually regret it. I was way way way overly bearish. I lost a literal ton of money in a matter of minutes, and there was nothing I could do. I no longer have the noise on my computer when I trade in terms of ringing when my stocks go up or down, cause that day the noise was deafening. I tried to stop out of things but by the time I did it was near the top of the move and I couldn't do a dang thing to stop it. It was the antithesis of printing money, it was my money being sucked out of my account, like a vaccum. Whoosh!
Well, back to Mike. I told Mike that money wasn't everything, I shared some of myself and I told him he needed to get help from a professional. I'm a trader, not a therapist or mental health professional. I may have passed abnormal therapy and taken some courses, but I'm not qualified to help someone in that way. I wrote Mike a long reply and I tried to provide the only thing I could, which is my experience of the times I've been down the worst and thought the worst. My experience when I've thought that I couldn't deal with life, that it was way bigger then I could handle.
These days I've spoken to a lot of friends, family and clients who have and do feel the same way. Cliche as it is, life ain't easy sometimes. And, maintaining one's integrity when its darkest is always the hardest. People do lots of things they might not normally do when they are most desperate. But, there are certain things that are final and that you can't come back from. Obviously death is one of them.
Well, happy endings, Mike wrote me and shared his experience and thanked me for my "help". He's gotten a job, its not the job he wanted, nor is it as good as the one he lost, but he's supporting his family as best he can and he is feeling much better. He's gotten the help he seems to need, at least from what he was kind of enough to share with me.
Thing is, Decemember is a time when we experience a lot of things, good and bad. For me, it really is about new beginnings. New beginnings as a trader, as a business man, as an artist, as a friend and as family member, and father.
Thank you all for listening over the years, or just for today, and thanks for sharing some of yourself with me at times. The human condition isn't easy often, there is one choice we all make every day. Do I try to be helpful today, or do I try to be hurtful to my fellows, and to myself.
I will end it by saying that I have a good friend who once told me that resentment is like peeing down your own pants, you're the only one who feels it, and that pain is a part of life, misery is a personal choice.
Feel free to email me or send me your experiences and your thoughts as always. It'll all remain confidential unless you say otherwise.
And, thanks "Mike" for I know you are reading and I appreciate the gift you gave me, it keeps me doing what I do and trying to be of service while also trying to earn an honest buck.
RULE
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Thursday, November 26, 2009
CONTACT INFO, market crash...
Futures broke below the 1075 level but are RIGHT THERE, which I think is a key marker here. Down nearly 3% overnight is a pretty freakin' big move, to say the least...see what shakes out, gotta think we're not down 5% on a 1/2 day of trading holiday wise unless Black Friday #s are horrid. But, ya never know...that's trading...and ES just broke to new overnight lows here, testing 1070, wowsa!
Here's some contact info if you want to get in touch;
Facebook; sign up to be a fan @ Michael "Waxie" Parness
Twitter; sign up @ myfpm
myfpm stands for - My Financial Power Makeover, you can check out the new kit we're giving a 30 day trial on (check site for details) @ www.myfpm.com
FREE class this TUESDAY @ 7:30 pm EST - email me @ waxie@trendfund.com and I'll get you a link right away for the class.
If you ever want to reach out and ask a question, etc. I'm happy to get back to you right away usually. Rarely do I get back to anyone more then 24 hours later.
Thanks and remember to RULE no matter what! Life is too short, so trade hard!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
waxie@trendfund.com
Here's some contact info if you want to get in touch;
Facebook; sign up to be a fan @ Michael "Waxie" Parness
Twitter; sign up @ myfpm
myfpm stands for - My Financial Power Makeover, you can check out the new kit we're giving a 30 day trial on (check site for details) @ www.myfpm.com
FREE class this TUESDAY @ 7:30 pm EST - email me @ waxie@trendfund.com and I'll get you a link right away for the class.
If you ever want to reach out and ask a question, etc. I'm happy to get back to you right away usually. Rarely do I get back to anyone more then 24 hours later.
Thanks and remember to RULE no matter what! Life is too short, so trade hard!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
waxie@trendfund.com
It's time for the ole put up or shut up...
News out of Dubai is cratering the futures on Thanksgiving. That's not very nice and happy to a lot of investors (including me as I'm long into tomorrow = oouch...to start).
Futures down 23+ on the ES (S & P) and 42 on the Nasdaq futures. That's a steep freakin decline premarket, particularly when tomorrow should have been an up day based on the holiday and the 1/2 day status.
I haven't had the time to digest the news or really read the whole thing so I'll refrain from making an overall call, though my initial impression is that there are going to be some very nice fades to play. With all due respect to the UAE they aren't the center of the universe.
The sectors that may very well get whacked the hardest are the financials and anything real estate related. Remember, we've said for a while, as have others, that the commercial real estate sector would be the next "shoe" to drop. I do own 10k SRS and 80 FAZ calls as my hedge so hopefully for me that will counter my AMZN and AAPL calls and the other small stuff I own.
In the meantime, I did my marketcast class Wednesday after the close and said that I felt that the market would head higher Friday, unless some news came that derailed us. Well, seems we got some news that rerailed us, at least initially. Hard to imagine calling for the gap to fill if its truly 20+ points, or more (watch 1075 on the ES as a potential short term line in the sand here).
So, it'll be interesting to see what we do particularly if Black Friday #s look better then expected. If that happens I would think that becomes the focus and not what happened in the UAE.
The fear here is that the house of cards we have been trading on becomes the house of wax and someone lit a blow torch to melt it. Or, some bad metaphor like that.
So, either the fear that this will lead to worldwide emerging and other market meltdowns either spreads, or this is just another buying opportunity on the dip. My guess initially is its the latter. If it all melts down, though, it'll get very ugly very quickly.
As we always teach, "NEWS RULES!" There's nothing that is more powerful then news. You can have the best trend, and the best chart and the best fundementals, but if the news is bad, the stock is gonna get hit.
As far as fades go, watch retail off news from Black Friday and more then likely stay shy with banks and financials, just not worth it unless we start to look like we are going to get a massive reversal. Very tough on a 1/2 day, the timing is really bad for this type of news because unless it gets cleared up right away investors face the cunundrum of locking in profits and leaving the "risk" trade, or using this as a buying opportunity if they missed this move, or a lot of it.
Also, watching the Dollar, it should be UP on this news. Europe gets hit far worse then we do on this and yet the dollar, while up a tad, is certainly not up much here.
A flight to "quality" would usually mean that the dollar gets a very nice squeeze, and perhaps it does but so far it hasn't, and Gold has not sold off all that much.
So, let's see what clarity we can get overnight, maybe we'll open GREEN! OK, not very likely, but we are about 10 points off 1075 and below that I'd look at 1050. If we bust below that early next week it'll either act as support or we may finally get that selloff many have been looking for.
ES now down nearly 25 points and Naz futures down to 1750, down 44 points.
That's a very large gap down. Interesting indeed. Very very interesting. One way or another we should get a very BIG move next week and once I digest the news I'm hopeful I can get a broader sense.
Also, remember - TUESDAY is the FREE class on trading the current market and will be a very special class indeed. So far we have a TON of people emailing me all day today (apparently I'm like a TURKEY, or better).
Email Ilene for info @; ilene@trendfund.com and/or me @: waxie@trendfund.com
and we'll send you the link to sign up.
Also, just a heads up, Monday's TREND SUCCESS radio show should be AWESOME, it's all about being and living GREEN successfully. Obviously a popular topic and I have some great guests coming on the show.
Next week we're probably going to do a show on the spiritual side of MONEY, but we'll see as I'm waiting to hear back from some very special and cool guests.
If you want to check out the show, go to; www.chataboutit.com/about/trend-success
I'm loving doing it, which just goes to show that money ain't everything. I don't make a dime on the show and yet its one of the funnest things I do in my life these days. Who knows, maybe soon I will be persuing a new career. I was actually offered a very cool opportunity business wise the other day and am thinking about it. Cool thing about the dollar basically being worthless you can pick your choice of careers, we'll all be broke! Ka-chango!
In the meantime, as I close this out, the ES is now down 26 points. Tell ya, anyone who went short Wednesday near the close is sitting pretty just about now babies.
It ain't me, but then again, playing for disaster is usually not a good trade to make. Though, clearly not always.
Oh, btw, I'm in Cincy and the news right now is showing the Black Friday lines for Coach, and other retail outlets here already. Have a feeling that IF the Black Friday #s are better then expected we will at least try to eat into this crazy big gap down.
One more note, still keep in an eye on 1.50 on the Euro, right now we are actually down about 2 cents on it, which is a decent size move, but if the dollar does reverse and get recrushed again the market should get that bounce.
Tough to call here, let's see how it plays out and go with the flow!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
*FREE CLASS TUESDAY, email - ilene@trendfund.com or waxie@trendfund.com for a link to sign up for the class.
Futures down 23+ on the ES (S & P) and 42 on the Nasdaq futures. That's a steep freakin decline premarket, particularly when tomorrow should have been an up day based on the holiday and the 1/2 day status.
I haven't had the time to digest the news or really read the whole thing so I'll refrain from making an overall call, though my initial impression is that there are going to be some very nice fades to play. With all due respect to the UAE they aren't the center of the universe.
The sectors that may very well get whacked the hardest are the financials and anything real estate related. Remember, we've said for a while, as have others, that the commercial real estate sector would be the next "shoe" to drop. I do own 10k SRS and 80 FAZ calls as my hedge so hopefully for me that will counter my AMZN and AAPL calls and the other small stuff I own.
In the meantime, I did my marketcast class Wednesday after the close and said that I felt that the market would head higher Friday, unless some news came that derailed us. Well, seems we got some news that rerailed us, at least initially. Hard to imagine calling for the gap to fill if its truly 20+ points, or more (watch 1075 on the ES as a potential short term line in the sand here).
So, it'll be interesting to see what we do particularly if Black Friday #s look better then expected. If that happens I would think that becomes the focus and not what happened in the UAE.
The fear here is that the house of cards we have been trading on becomes the house of wax and someone lit a blow torch to melt it. Or, some bad metaphor like that.
So, either the fear that this will lead to worldwide emerging and other market meltdowns either spreads, or this is just another buying opportunity on the dip. My guess initially is its the latter. If it all melts down, though, it'll get very ugly very quickly.
As we always teach, "NEWS RULES!" There's nothing that is more powerful then news. You can have the best trend, and the best chart and the best fundementals, but if the news is bad, the stock is gonna get hit.
As far as fades go, watch retail off news from Black Friday and more then likely stay shy with banks and financials, just not worth it unless we start to look like we are going to get a massive reversal. Very tough on a 1/2 day, the timing is really bad for this type of news because unless it gets cleared up right away investors face the cunundrum of locking in profits and leaving the "risk" trade, or using this as a buying opportunity if they missed this move, or a lot of it.
Also, watching the Dollar, it should be UP on this news. Europe gets hit far worse then we do on this and yet the dollar, while up a tad, is certainly not up much here.
A flight to "quality" would usually mean that the dollar gets a very nice squeeze, and perhaps it does but so far it hasn't, and Gold has not sold off all that much.
So, let's see what clarity we can get overnight, maybe we'll open GREEN! OK, not very likely, but we are about 10 points off 1075 and below that I'd look at 1050. If we bust below that early next week it'll either act as support or we may finally get that selloff many have been looking for.
ES now down nearly 25 points and Naz futures down to 1750, down 44 points.
That's a very large gap down. Interesting indeed. Very very interesting. One way or another we should get a very BIG move next week and once I digest the news I'm hopeful I can get a broader sense.
Also, remember - TUESDAY is the FREE class on trading the current market and will be a very special class indeed. So far we have a TON of people emailing me all day today (apparently I'm like a TURKEY, or better).
Email Ilene for info @; ilene@trendfund.com and/or me @: waxie@trendfund.com
and we'll send you the link to sign up.
Also, just a heads up, Monday's TREND SUCCESS radio show should be AWESOME, it's all about being and living GREEN successfully. Obviously a popular topic and I have some great guests coming on the show.
Next week we're probably going to do a show on the spiritual side of MONEY, but we'll see as I'm waiting to hear back from some very special and cool guests.
If you want to check out the show, go to; www.chataboutit.com/about/trend-success
I'm loving doing it, which just goes to show that money ain't everything. I don't make a dime on the show and yet its one of the funnest things I do in my life these days. Who knows, maybe soon I will be persuing a new career. I was actually offered a very cool opportunity business wise the other day and am thinking about it. Cool thing about the dollar basically being worthless you can pick your choice of careers, we'll all be broke! Ka-chango!
In the meantime, as I close this out, the ES is now down 26 points. Tell ya, anyone who went short Wednesday near the close is sitting pretty just about now babies.
It ain't me, but then again, playing for disaster is usually not a good trade to make. Though, clearly not always.
Oh, btw, I'm in Cincy and the news right now is showing the Black Friday lines for Coach, and other retail outlets here already. Have a feeling that IF the Black Friday #s are better then expected we will at least try to eat into this crazy big gap down.
One more note, still keep in an eye on 1.50 on the Euro, right now we are actually down about 2 cents on it, which is a decent size move, but if the dollar does reverse and get recrushed again the market should get that bounce.
Tough to call here, let's see how it plays out and go with the flow!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
*FREE CLASS TUESDAY, email - ilene@trendfund.com or waxie@trendfund.com for a link to sign up for the class.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
HAPPY THANKSGIVING!
Happy Thanksgiving to you all, I hope your day overflows with good vibes. Life is way too short for it to be any other way.
We'll be back in action 1/2 day on Friday and then full throttle starting next week again, and as always!
Also, there's a FREE "Trading the Current Market" class next Tuesday, if you are interested please email me and I will get you the link;
waxie@trendfund.com
Thanks and look forward to working with ya after the Gobbles!!!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
We'll be back in action 1/2 day on Friday and then full throttle starting next week again, and as always!
Also, there's a FREE "Trading the Current Market" class next Tuesday, if you are interested please email me and I will get you the link;
waxie@trendfund.com
Thanks and look forward to working with ya after the Gobbles!!!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Thursday, November 19, 2009
When its time to relax, one Waxie stands clear...
Tell ya, this market is gonna pop very very SOONNNNNN.
Which way you ask? Well, good question and a good question deserves a good answer, don't it?
How about this, since its so close...
If we bust and break below 1100 here we may crawl back down to the 1075 area pretty fast, but more then likely it acts as support baring some bad news and we at least try to taste 1125 area. Tough to trade such a narrow range. I was out all day running errands, but basically my acct was exactly where it was when I left, almost to the dollar (since I was down on the day when I left, I returned to down on the day when I got back!).
Only thing that changed was that the stocks I was down on when I left were up mostly and LVS which I still own 250 calls on, was DOWN!
Thursday watch for a few fades early both ways and then I think the market will probably pick a direction. 1100 is key, and the Nasdaq is right at crucial juncture as well.
I think we want to wait and see if 1100 holds here. First things first. We've held so far, we shall see soon enough!
Remember, its options expiration week, volatility will increase and pin action will become more likely starting...TODAY!
RULE!
Waxie
Which way you ask? Well, good question and a good question deserves a good answer, don't it?
How about this, since its so close...
If we bust and break below 1100 here we may crawl back down to the 1075 area pretty fast, but more then likely it acts as support baring some bad news and we at least try to taste 1125 area. Tough to trade such a narrow range. I was out all day running errands, but basically my acct was exactly where it was when I left, almost to the dollar (since I was down on the day when I left, I returned to down on the day when I got back!).
Only thing that changed was that the stocks I was down on when I left were up mostly and LVS which I still own 250 calls on, was DOWN!
Thursday watch for a few fades early both ways and then I think the market will probably pick a direction. 1100 is key, and the Nasdaq is right at crucial juncture as well.
I think we want to wait and see if 1100 holds here. First things first. We've held so far, we shall see soon enough!
Remember, its options expiration week, volatility will increase and pin action will become more likely starting...TODAY!
RULE!
Waxie
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Monday on Trend Success is POKER SUCCESS show!
Monday night from 7 to 8 pm EST I have a Poker success show on my radio show - "Trend Sucess"
Phil "Unibomber" Laak and Antonio "The Magician" Esfandiari and possibly actress turned Poker Goddess Jennifer Tilly will be on my show this Monday!
Tune in or call in to speak to me toll free 1-877-242-8212...
Log onto; http://chataboutit.com/about/trend-success/
This week's show should be pretty cool, and I'll also be discussing what I see upcoming for the markets, and YOU!
So, tune in Monday for TREND SUCCESS, Poker style!
And, dial in to talk to me and share your stories of success and thoughts about what ya hear and what ya think. In today's world, success now more then ever depends on how you view it!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Phil "Unibomber" Laak and Antonio "The Magician" Esfandiari and possibly actress turned Poker Goddess Jennifer Tilly will be on my show this Monday!
Tune in or call in to speak to me toll free 1-877-242-8212...
Log onto; http://chataboutit.com/about/trend-success/
This week's show should be pretty cool, and I'll also be discussing what I see upcoming for the markets, and YOU!
So, tune in Monday for TREND SUCCESS, Poker style!
And, dial in to talk to me and share your stories of success and thoughts about what ya hear and what ya think. In today's world, success now more then ever depends on how you view it!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Monday, November 09, 2009
Join me at...
FACEBOOK - http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/trendtrade?ref=ts
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become a fan
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Log in and sign up...
under - Michael "Waxie" Parness
become a fan
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CARRY TRADES and, well, CARRY TRADES...
Tonight on my radio show; Trend Success (www.chataboutit.com), I talked a little bit about the carry trade. It's become quite obvious that the main thing now carrying this market is the Carry TRADE.
So, what is a Carry Trade? Basically it's when you can borrow money at very low (now zero) interest, and then use it to invest/buy and leverage in to a vehicle that pays a higher rate. Kinda like borrowing from Peter to pay Paul, except Paul ultimately pays off a whole lot better then Peter could ever have imagined.
It's one of the main reasons that the big powerful investment houses (GS, MS) have made huge hoards of cash trading this market since the bailouts by taxpayers. Basically, they have taken the Fed/Taxpayer money and leveraged it (the same risk trades that got us into this mess to begin with in some cases, though thats oversimplified) and made massive profits which they then pay themselves billions with.
It's basically double taxation all around. At some point people will realize that we've been screwed, but it ain't now. Banks borrow OUR money at next to 0% and then loan it back to US at 6% or higher. When they start taxing US for the money we loaned that is being loaned back at higher rates maybe the Rat isn't in Denmark after all.
Meanwhile, futures are down as I write this. This is a TOUGH market. I am cutting back my lot size because of it. I'd love a nice pullback here so we can ramp into year end, but I'm not counting on it.
So, let's just carry ourselves and keep things hugging the vest, meaning take it a day at a time. Keep an eye on GOOG and AAPL here, they should make new highs shortly and will either reject them or plow through and that should tip the markets hand. Of course, you can probably use S & P and Nasdaq highs same way. A gap down has to be buyable for a fade, but we've been trending both ways seemingly every day.
So...in times like this I try to pick my spots and trade lighter then normal.
I will say, as I said on my show tonight, once that carry trade unwinds we are going to get the mother of all selloffs.
RULE
Michael "Waxie" Parness
It's pretty ingenious and basically the taxpayer is the tool in the end cause we'll be "carried" to the ER with heart attacks when our taxes go through the roof.
So, as long as the US DOllar stays weak then the carry trade could conceivably stay in effect. Think of it this way, would you rather have your money in US currency, or in a rising stock market? Maybe the stock market will go down - MAYBE - but we KNOW the US Dollar is tank city in the long and probably short haul.
So, that's why when people ask me how high we can go, I have no idea, seriously. I thought we'd pull back last week post FOMC, and clearly I was wrong and got slammed because of it. Hey, shat happens, it's part of the game, even I ain't always right, no shot, no one is.
Having said that, today's move was all off the G20 saying that they are going to keep the printing presses rolling and as long as that happens, you have a carry trade going.
Having said that, there are signs that this rally is waning even as we made new highs today on the year on the DOW. Volume has gone down over the last few days trading as we continue to rise.
So, what is a Carry Trade? Basically it's when you can borrow money at very low (now zero) interest, and then use it to invest/buy and leverage in to a vehicle that pays a higher rate. Kinda like borrowing from Peter to pay Paul, except Paul ultimately pays off a whole lot better then Peter could ever have imagined.
It's one of the main reasons that the big powerful investment houses (GS, MS) have made huge hoards of cash trading this market since the bailouts by taxpayers. Basically, they have taken the Fed/Taxpayer money and leveraged it (the same risk trades that got us into this mess to begin with in some cases, though thats oversimplified) and made massive profits which they then pay themselves billions with.
It's basically double taxation all around. At some point people will realize that we've been screwed, but it ain't now. Banks borrow OUR money at next to 0% and then loan it back to US at 6% or higher. When they start taxing US for the money we loaned that is being loaned back at higher rates maybe the Rat isn't in Denmark after all.
Meanwhile, futures are down as I write this. This is a TOUGH market. I am cutting back my lot size because of it. I'd love a nice pullback here so we can ramp into year end, but I'm not counting on it.
So, let's just carry ourselves and keep things hugging the vest, meaning take it a day at a time. Keep an eye on GOOG and AAPL here, they should make new highs shortly and will either reject them or plow through and that should tip the markets hand. Of course, you can probably use S & P and Nasdaq highs same way. A gap down has to be buyable for a fade, but we've been trending both ways seemingly every day.
So...in times like this I try to pick my spots and trade lighter then normal.
I will say, as I said on my show tonight, once that carry trade unwinds we are going to get the mother of all selloffs.
RULE
Michael "Waxie" Parness
It's pretty ingenious and basically the taxpayer is the tool in the end cause we'll be "carried" to the ER with heart attacks when our taxes go through the roof.
So, as long as the US DOllar stays weak then the carry trade could conceivably stay in effect. Think of it this way, would you rather have your money in US currency, or in a rising stock market? Maybe the stock market will go down - MAYBE - but we KNOW the US Dollar is tank city in the long and probably short haul.
So, that's why when people ask me how high we can go, I have no idea, seriously. I thought we'd pull back last week post FOMC, and clearly I was wrong and got slammed because of it. Hey, shat happens, it's part of the game, even I ain't always right, no shot, no one is.
Having said that, today's move was all off the G20 saying that they are going to keep the printing presses rolling and as long as that happens, you have a carry trade going.
Having said that, there are signs that this rally is waning even as we made new highs today on the year on the DOW. Volume has gone down over the last few days trading as we continue to rise.
Thursday, November 05, 2009
Ka-chango...and other strange stories of lost and found...
OK, so clearly the only thing I was right about today was UUP, which had a super move for Option Traders as the calls went almost 75% in a single day. THAT is a nice trade.
However, I didn't fare so well as when I woke up the futures were already flying. I made some money fading RIMM and CSCO off the open, but everything else I had was smashed.
Sucks when you're on the wrong side of things, and a trader is often that way. For every million I've made I've probably lost several, but the bottom line is that it's a marathon, not a sprint and in the long run a good trader should provide the bacon, and the cheese.
The carry trade that you keep hearing about is very powerful here. Many technicians and good traders are dumbfounded. I have to say that the last two weeks have been tough trading even for me. For us to have the kind of intense trend day up, with no gap fade, off yesterday's close is rather surprising. Yeah, I know the employment #s were "good" or better then expected, but 200+ points and reclaiming 10k off them? Hmm, the carry trade is all that really is playing out here. As long as the dollar falls and there is no sign of interest rates rising, the market could very well continue higher and higher. Is it a bubble? Yeah, of course it is, but so what? The market can stay in a bubble far longer then you can stay short it waiting for it to be rationale, that's why it doesn't pay to be too biased, like I was headed into today! Oouch.
I the meantime, Friday has more employment #s which should beat easily, and typically the market on Friday follows the move on Thursday FOMC week and trends the same way. I expect a gap up if #s are good, and then probably chop around but probably finish green again. But, I'll wait before making any big bets this time.
If the trend holds true, then next week we will reverse off this weeks post-FOMC move and head lower, potentially to that magic S & P 1000 #. Having said that, I mean, its hard to have conviction to the downside in this market, EVERY move down gets bought and as we head to year end we could easily just head higher.
I will say that when this carry trade does unwind we really should get a huge down move that is gonna shake a lot of people. That should happen as soon as rates head higher. Here now its iffy, and 10k is still in play. Also, overhead if we head higher look at the recent yearly highs as 1st line of real resistence (1075 actually before that) and if we break the highs then 1150 could be a heart beat away.
We shall see, we shall see soon enough!
RULE!
*Monday I have a GREAT guest on Trend Success on www.chataboutit.com and I'm really excited. Hopefully you guys and gals have checked out the show, its on podcast at www.chataboutit.com
Keep rockin'
Waxie
However, I didn't fare so well as when I woke up the futures were already flying. I made some money fading RIMM and CSCO off the open, but everything else I had was smashed.
Sucks when you're on the wrong side of things, and a trader is often that way. For every million I've made I've probably lost several, but the bottom line is that it's a marathon, not a sprint and in the long run a good trader should provide the bacon, and the cheese.
The carry trade that you keep hearing about is very powerful here. Many technicians and good traders are dumbfounded. I have to say that the last two weeks have been tough trading even for me. For us to have the kind of intense trend day up, with no gap fade, off yesterday's close is rather surprising. Yeah, I know the employment #s were "good" or better then expected, but 200+ points and reclaiming 10k off them? Hmm, the carry trade is all that really is playing out here. As long as the dollar falls and there is no sign of interest rates rising, the market could very well continue higher and higher. Is it a bubble? Yeah, of course it is, but so what? The market can stay in a bubble far longer then you can stay short it waiting for it to be rationale, that's why it doesn't pay to be too biased, like I was headed into today! Oouch.
I the meantime, Friday has more employment #s which should beat easily, and typically the market on Friday follows the move on Thursday FOMC week and trends the same way. I expect a gap up if #s are good, and then probably chop around but probably finish green again. But, I'll wait before making any big bets this time.
If the trend holds true, then next week we will reverse off this weeks post-FOMC move and head lower, potentially to that magic S & P 1000 #. Having said that, I mean, its hard to have conviction to the downside in this market, EVERY move down gets bought and as we head to year end we could easily just head higher.
I will say that when this carry trade does unwind we really should get a huge down move that is gonna shake a lot of people. That should happen as soon as rates head higher. Here now its iffy, and 10k is still in play. Also, overhead if we head higher look at the recent yearly highs as 1st line of real resistence (1075 actually before that) and if we break the highs then 1150 could be a heart beat away.
We shall see, we shall see soon enough!
RULE!
*Monday I have a GREAT guest on Trend Success on www.chataboutit.com and I'm really excited. Hopefully you guys and gals have checked out the show, its on podcast at www.chataboutit.com
Keep rockin'
Waxie
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
The sound on the bus goes round and round, round and round...
Wowsa, talk about whipsaw. Here is the logic of the market for ya;
We gap up, fade off the open and cause the ISM #s weren't so hot, then rally like mad dogs to up 130s, then pull in a wee bit into FOMC but still near the highs.
Then the Fed says EVERYTHING and MORE then the market could ever hope for, we catch the fade of the spike up, then we spike back up, then down, then up to highs and then we completely roll over in the final 1/2 hour and the Nasdaq closes red, and the DOW barely green.
Plus, the dollar, which I have to tell ya I went long WAY WAY WAY too early and got smacked HARD on that trade, spikes lower and it looks like the Euro is going to new all-time highs vs the dollar and then it too roll over quite a bit to close the day like crap.
Then CSCO reports earnings and blows out and guides up and the stock spikes a lot higher and the futures rally hard...
and now, as I write this, the dollar is higher, the futures look miserable and what the hell is a trader to do?
OK, so here's the dealio. I think you have to lean lower and still short any spikes, thats what the tape is saying. However, one thing I've been learning the hard way at times is that swinging stuff here hasn't panned out that well, so I am starting to look minute to minute. What's that mean? Well, I went home net pretty short. I own puts on VNO, SPG and BAC and calls on FAZ and SRS. I'm also long the dollar. Thing is, if we do gap down decently I'm going to have to consider, at least, selling half or all my position and waiting to see how we trade from there. This market is up for grabs and the volume is just so low that it's tough to get any traction either way. It almost seems like these days the proper game plan intraday is to see where we are at lunch and then fade that bias. It's been working fairly well lately. This market trades on such light volume that it gets pushed around based on what it feels second to second. It's a very sensitive market, and that needs to be respected. Taking too big a bias into a day only hurts you.
Capital preservation remains paramount.
In the meantime, watch what the central bank in Europe does tomorrow am. If they start tightening then the dollar should really get an extended move higher as I suspect. If they don't, then the dollar bears may get their candy for a while longer as the dollar could go even lower. It's interesting reading pundits all over and listening to Booyahhead say that the "Bears" as though they are some mythical creature, sorta like the Lochness monster or somethin', as though these Bear beings really give a crap about arguements for or against the market going higher or lower. Any good trader trusts his gut and its fixated on being a Bear or Bull. Yes, there are people who are BEARISH, but as far as I know the only "Bears" are either in the forest, in freezing tempatures, in a zoo, or in Chicago. The rest is hogwash.
Watch Gold here, it looks way way way overextended. I woulda liked to have seen it go over $1100 to get short for a quick trade, but it still may and I wouldn't hold a swing on GOld short if you paid me hard cash, or GOld. It's just such a beast.
It really comes down to the dollar. If the dollar continues lower, we are going higher, if the dollar stengthens, we are going lower, period. Mark it down, its worked like a charm for a while now.
Europe should tighten. I'm not sure they will, but they should. It's really in no one's best interest that we have a weak dollar as I've discussed many many times, but certainly it's not in Europe's best interest and it's not in China's either. I suspect they still tighten and support the dollar. The Euro goes to $2 or something close, you'll see a very bad US economy, potentially even worse then we've had. That will not be good, not at all.
I stick to the deflation followed by inflation theory I've had for a while and that's what seems to be playing out. That supports a higher dollar followed by a much much lower one.
Thanks for all who tuned into my radio show on www.chataboutit.com. I'm getting my feet wet and really enjoy it. Next Monday coming up I have a VERY cool guest, and we have some really powerful guests upcoming from there. I'm taking it very seriously.
Also, please be advised, the January Effect list time of year is almost here! Last year's list went 15 of 16 and ROCKED! Many people said they made HUGE and so did I. Some of the option plays were TREMENDOUS.
So, get ready, we'll be offering the list out in about 2 to 3 weeks - ARE YOU READY???
You should be, I think it's gonna ROCK!
See ya on the other side,
Waxie
We gap up, fade off the open and cause the ISM #s weren't so hot, then rally like mad dogs to up 130s, then pull in a wee bit into FOMC but still near the highs.
Then the Fed says EVERYTHING and MORE then the market could ever hope for, we catch the fade of the spike up, then we spike back up, then down, then up to highs and then we completely roll over in the final 1/2 hour and the Nasdaq closes red, and the DOW barely green.
Plus, the dollar, which I have to tell ya I went long WAY WAY WAY too early and got smacked HARD on that trade, spikes lower and it looks like the Euro is going to new all-time highs vs the dollar and then it too roll over quite a bit to close the day like crap.
Then CSCO reports earnings and blows out and guides up and the stock spikes a lot higher and the futures rally hard...
and now, as I write this, the dollar is higher, the futures look miserable and what the hell is a trader to do?
OK, so here's the dealio. I think you have to lean lower and still short any spikes, thats what the tape is saying. However, one thing I've been learning the hard way at times is that swinging stuff here hasn't panned out that well, so I am starting to look minute to minute. What's that mean? Well, I went home net pretty short. I own puts on VNO, SPG and BAC and calls on FAZ and SRS. I'm also long the dollar. Thing is, if we do gap down decently I'm going to have to consider, at least, selling half or all my position and waiting to see how we trade from there. This market is up for grabs and the volume is just so low that it's tough to get any traction either way. It almost seems like these days the proper game plan intraday is to see where we are at lunch and then fade that bias. It's been working fairly well lately. This market trades on such light volume that it gets pushed around based on what it feels second to second. It's a very sensitive market, and that needs to be respected. Taking too big a bias into a day only hurts you.
Capital preservation remains paramount.
In the meantime, watch what the central bank in Europe does tomorrow am. If they start tightening then the dollar should really get an extended move higher as I suspect. If they don't, then the dollar bears may get their candy for a while longer as the dollar could go even lower. It's interesting reading pundits all over and listening to Booyahhead say that the "Bears" as though they are some mythical creature, sorta like the Lochness monster or somethin', as though these Bear beings really give a crap about arguements for or against the market going higher or lower. Any good trader trusts his gut and its fixated on being a Bear or Bull. Yes, there are people who are BEARISH, but as far as I know the only "Bears" are either in the forest, in freezing tempatures, in a zoo, or in Chicago. The rest is hogwash.
Watch Gold here, it looks way way way overextended. I woulda liked to have seen it go over $1100 to get short for a quick trade, but it still may and I wouldn't hold a swing on GOld short if you paid me hard cash, or GOld. It's just such a beast.
It really comes down to the dollar. If the dollar continues lower, we are going higher, if the dollar stengthens, we are going lower, period. Mark it down, its worked like a charm for a while now.
Europe should tighten. I'm not sure they will, but they should. It's really in no one's best interest that we have a weak dollar as I've discussed many many times, but certainly it's not in Europe's best interest and it's not in China's either. I suspect they still tighten and support the dollar. The Euro goes to $2 or something close, you'll see a very bad US economy, potentially even worse then we've had. That will not be good, not at all.
I stick to the deflation followed by inflation theory I've had for a while and that's what seems to be playing out. That supports a higher dollar followed by a much much lower one.
Thanks for all who tuned into my radio show on www.chataboutit.com. I'm getting my feet wet and really enjoy it. Next Monday coming up I have a VERY cool guest, and we have some really powerful guests upcoming from there. I'm taking it very seriously.
Also, please be advised, the January Effect list time of year is almost here! Last year's list went 15 of 16 and ROCKED! Many people said they made HUGE and so did I. Some of the option plays were TREMENDOUS.
So, get ready, we'll be offering the list out in about 2 to 3 weeks - ARE YOU READY???
You should be, I think it's gonna ROCK!
See ya on the other side,
Waxie
Monday, November 02, 2009
Tonight 7 to 8 pm EST on CBS' online radio - www.chataboutit.com
Please tune in tonight from 7 to 8 pm EST. Go to; www.chataboutit.com
My show is called - TREND SUCCESS
you can click on the link to listen in and watch as well. Also, please call in with some positive vibes!
RULE
Waxie
My show is called - TREND SUCCESS
you can click on the link to listen in and watch as well. Also, please call in with some positive vibes!
RULE
Waxie
Sunday, November 01, 2009
You gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em...and now is the time to fold 'em...
S & P should see below 1000 shortly, Nasdaq almost a sure thing to see below 2000, and below 1900 more then likely before any real sustainable bounce comes along.
While I could be wrong, it seems unlikely we aren't done for now. We're basically done with the majority of meaningful earnings and I'm not sure why anyone would want to own stuff new, or not take profits on stuff they are up or recouped from.
You'd have to be insane, and while I think that investors are insane for letting someone else handle their money, but even so holding GOOG here at $550 area, where's it going? $600? So, you want to risk a trip to $400 for a potential pop to $600? Good luck to ya. And, GOOG would be one of the better examples of stocks that should hold up relatively well. I like the REIT's lower here, but let's see what shakes Monday. Futures started a lot lower tonight but have rebounded and are GREEN across the board here into the open tomorrow. I think a gap up is a must short baring news of some sort, but anything remains possible. The gaps have been pretty putrid lately as last week we basically had trend days every day and not much of a bounce post open, or a drawdown if we gapped up. This week may provide a reversal of fortune, and I do think we have officially changed the game here and look like the near term top is in.
Keep watching the dollar, that's a KEY and should remain so. I don't see any reason the dollar won't continue to get a bounce, particularly since most people don't think it can. It's interesting that the speak about the dollar mirrors the speak about the market up til now, no one thinks the dollar can sustain any type of rally, same as no one thought the market could. That should indicate some more decent upside for the dollar.
As I always say, nothing goes in a straight line, folks, if you have profits as an investor don't give them all back, I would take at least some off and wait for a better reentry, even if I'm wrong so what? You got an amazing bounce/rally, don't be a hog and squeal like a pig.
If I'm right we should see S & P below 1000, potentially this week. If I'm wrong, watch 1050 as 1st big resistence, then 1075 and then we'd probably retest the recent highs and if we bust them and hold all bets are off and blue skies are in store. I don't see that happening, but hey, I've been wrong many times before and I'm sure I'll be wrong many times from here.
My 1st TREND SUCCESS radio show debuts tomorrow/Monday night 7 to 8 pm EST.
The show airs on CBS online radio channel; www.chataboutit.com
I'm going to follow up this post with some info about it tomorrow, but the show will be themed; SUCCESS...
it will have a stock focus for about 1/2 the show (the 1st half, with probably 10 minutes at the end as well for some calls stock specific) and the rest of the show will feature people from all walks of life who will discuss what it means to be a success in their chosen field, both professionally and personally.
Our 1st guest is a professor at Carnegie Mellon who works with some very very cool stuff, some of it straight out of a Star Trek episode. Bear in mind that the 1st couple I'm going to be just getting my feet wet and I hope by the 3rd or 4th episode the show will be really smooth. I have some seriously fantastic guests lined up, including some pretty huge names potentially, so check the show out, give a call in to say hi and wish me luck, or send me emails offering suggestions on guests.
Also, if you or someone you know would like to be on the show to share some success stories, please send me an email with the ideas; waxie@trendtrade.com
Thanks and look forward to ruling the week with ya!
Go to; www.chataboutit.com to check out the show tomorrow TREND SUCCESS from 7 to 8 pm EST!
RULE
Michael "Waxie" Parness
While I could be wrong, it seems unlikely we aren't done for now. We're basically done with the majority of meaningful earnings and I'm not sure why anyone would want to own stuff new, or not take profits on stuff they are up or recouped from.
You'd have to be insane, and while I think that investors are insane for letting someone else handle their money, but even so holding GOOG here at $550 area, where's it going? $600? So, you want to risk a trip to $400 for a potential pop to $600? Good luck to ya. And, GOOG would be one of the better examples of stocks that should hold up relatively well. I like the REIT's lower here, but let's see what shakes Monday. Futures started a lot lower tonight but have rebounded and are GREEN across the board here into the open tomorrow. I think a gap up is a must short baring news of some sort, but anything remains possible. The gaps have been pretty putrid lately as last week we basically had trend days every day and not much of a bounce post open, or a drawdown if we gapped up. This week may provide a reversal of fortune, and I do think we have officially changed the game here and look like the near term top is in.
Keep watching the dollar, that's a KEY and should remain so. I don't see any reason the dollar won't continue to get a bounce, particularly since most people don't think it can. It's interesting that the speak about the dollar mirrors the speak about the market up til now, no one thinks the dollar can sustain any type of rally, same as no one thought the market could. That should indicate some more decent upside for the dollar.
As I always say, nothing goes in a straight line, folks, if you have profits as an investor don't give them all back, I would take at least some off and wait for a better reentry, even if I'm wrong so what? You got an amazing bounce/rally, don't be a hog and squeal like a pig.
If I'm right we should see S & P below 1000, potentially this week. If I'm wrong, watch 1050 as 1st big resistence, then 1075 and then we'd probably retest the recent highs and if we bust them and hold all bets are off and blue skies are in store. I don't see that happening, but hey, I've been wrong many times before and I'm sure I'll be wrong many times from here.
My 1st TREND SUCCESS radio show debuts tomorrow/Monday night 7 to 8 pm EST.
The show airs on CBS online radio channel; www.chataboutit.com
I'm going to follow up this post with some info about it tomorrow, but the show will be themed; SUCCESS...
it will have a stock focus for about 1/2 the show (the 1st half, with probably 10 minutes at the end as well for some calls stock specific) and the rest of the show will feature people from all walks of life who will discuss what it means to be a success in their chosen field, both professionally and personally.
Our 1st guest is a professor at Carnegie Mellon who works with some very very cool stuff, some of it straight out of a Star Trek episode. Bear in mind that the 1st couple I'm going to be just getting my feet wet and I hope by the 3rd or 4th episode the show will be really smooth. I have some seriously fantastic guests lined up, including some pretty huge names potentially, so check the show out, give a call in to say hi and wish me luck, or send me emails offering suggestions on guests.
Also, if you or someone you know would like to be on the show to share some success stories, please send me an email with the ideas; waxie@trendtrade.com
Thanks and look forward to ruling the week with ya!
Go to; www.chataboutit.com to check out the show tomorrow TREND SUCCESS from 7 to 8 pm EST!
RULE
Michael "Waxie" Parness
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