Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Nice bouncey pooo!

As suspected 1400 became nice support off the gap down and we then zoomed once we broke back above it! Nice trading day for da clients, very nice indeed!

Our OPTIONS are just completely smoking! We caught NYX late day today for nice jing, I think it sees $75 then maybe $80 near term, we'll see. DRYS awesome. MELI awesome. We are just completely rocking the houseeee! If you haven't signed up for the OPTIONS 3-day online seminar with the LIVE online trading all-day options, you need to do so now! Email me @ waxie@trendfund.com and I'll send you the right wayyyyy!

In the meantime, CSCO reported so-so numbers, DIS reported good #s. They are all saying now that DIS #s mean that consumers are still spending. OKEY DOKEY girl from moskokieeeeee! Hehe, thats funny. April was one of the worst months in the HISTORY of our economy for bankruptcies, but people are spending money left and right! Ah, huh, sure they are.

I'm not, I've cut back tremendously. I want to have something for a rainy day cause that rainy day is is here right now. This is the disconnect in the marketplace and its always interesting because logically we should not be rallying, yet we are. At some point, though, water does indeed find its right level. This market, as I said it would, is rallying, but the best thing about the rally is its gonna set up a really nice shorting opp. VERY soon. All the pundits are now jumping on the bull ship and so I suspect that at some pt near term we're gonna hit a real brick wall and fall off this glass horse. I hope I'm wrong, I love being wrong when I'm bearish. The higher we go, the better the trading, but I doubt I am gonna be. Years of experience tells me that this type of rally is the type that usually ends ugly. Low volume rallies in a bear market. FNM #s were horrid, they are diluting the stock and yet the stock rallied hard and went way green. That tells me that we are once again in that wonderful place they call - irrational exuberance! Love that Greenie guy (the original GREENIE!).

The stuff I like now are the laggards. What happens in this type of market is that the leaders get extended (did you see AAPL early day, thats an extended stock same with GOOG and BIDU). So, they pick up the laggards that don't have any real fundementals to support them longer term, and they drive them up as momentum squeezes. We saw that today with CSIQ, SOl, and a lot of the Ags. Thats a sign that we are watching for a top. Now, I don't think that happens til at least 1450 - 1460 on the S & P, but we're at around 1420 here, so thats a couple or three good days (or less) so we're not that far off. It is possible we get to 1500 on the S & P. So, we'll have to see, but in the meantime let's just go with the flow. This is the thing about trading, you really have to forget logic and your opinions and just go with it. Don't fight a market like this, figure out whats lagging and go WITH it.

NYX has lagged it, they blew out earnings, the stock SHOULD go higher. How high? I don't rightly know, so you take it and you set a stop and you trail it as it goes and you lock in profits at resistences like $75 and then $80 and you see if you can ride it higher. Worst case you have a good risk/reward situation because you are setting an initial STOP, meaning your absolute worst case loss is limited, while NYX could concievably go to $100s!

That, my friends, is what trading is all about! Good risk vs. reward!

BIG Ka-chingos, and small ka-changos!




Mario D'Agostino said...

hey, waxie, I did the trading online Tuesday with Scott. It was very well run, learned a lot. Scott was very good. I hopped on the swing play on NYX. If that does well, I will most likely join your options service. Until then, the ipo on solientgreen looks good!

Owenaldo said...

Waxie .. the corn is up is it still shortable at this point ? what do you think about the euro now ? still going down ?

chubby said...

Hi Waxie,
Mario has mentionned an online trading with Scott. Do you happen to know how to sign up for sessions like that?

Thanks again,

DOG said...

HI Waxie,

I am a big fan of yours for years!

Waxie, what du u actually think about OIL. You posted several days ago that it will test the 100 $ but it made a new all time high.

Georgie said...

Hey Waxie,

Could you tell me if you think there might be a bounce of NYX into expiration week? I'm in deep and doodooing in my pants. Trendfund ROCKS!


Mario D'Agostino said...

Well I guess I don't have to join the service, NYX is stinkin up the joint, well I still might, thinking about the 3-day seminar.

Mario D'Agostino said...

NYX stinks. Eom.

Waxie said...

Marioooooo, dudesssssssss,
what ya doing to me? NYX was a BEAST of BURDEN!
it ROCKED! You gotta take profits, dudes, come on. I can lead ya all to water, but I can't make ya drinkith from the profit cup!

Jeez, louise. Mario, you better be at the Options Workshop this week, you need it!

email me at waxie@trendfund.com if you want to sign up.

Corn? I still think down, yes. But, like I said, might take some time and it could get ugly if wrong, so make sure you set your stops, that sucker POPS (get it, popcorn? :))
I know, stick to my day job.

Oil? Well, I called it to $125 and $150, but I do/did think it will rest. But, I wouldn't short that freight train, too tough to catch. Stick with the easy ones in this market. I like ENER but we're in from $4s lower, looks like a runner if the market stays good, though.

See ya, dudeeesssss

Mario D'Agostino said...

Waxie I kinda think like you, I got ENER yesterday and some last week. I will be there, see you tomorrow.