Monday, May 19, 2008

Did anyone see da rally?

After a huge monster type blowoff early Monday, the market sold off pretty strongly, sending recent momentum favs and beat up financails tumbling back down. The brokers and banks were up early but could not sustain any gains and most finished REDDDD.

HOT FLASH - the financials are DEAD MONEY, folks. Stay away, avoid them. First off, even if they were "bottomed" which is ludicrous in my view, why would you bother taking LEH or MER or C long when if the market rallies you'll get a lot more bang for your buck with one of the leaders (POT,FSLR, MA, etc)? Risk vs. Reward is everything folks and the financials provide none of that. The fact that AAPL sold off is very telling potentially. I think the early strength and seeing stupid stocks as I call them (our SOLF, CHNR, etc) running on fumes usually spells a near term top. I said for a while I thought ES might see 1450 area and we got awful close today. While I could still see us going higher off a pullback, I think we are getting VERY toppy here. Even if the economy was turning around (rubbish) the market isn't going to 25,000 anytime soon, so at this pt we are way overbought.

You see my corn? Still going down. We'll see. Right now I would look at dips as buying opps til proven otherwise, but I think we do need a pause. And remember the old adage, GO AWAY and sell in MAY!

I'm not ready to start shorting at will, though GS and such look lower to me here still unless news comes to propel them higher.

Trade day to day here, we are so choppy you gotta stick with whats working. Yes, I am noncommittal here cause I think long term bearish is right, short term choppy to down and chop downs being bought. Stay ready and stay sharp!




Jeanne Mancuso said...

ok, so now Rebecca of Sunnybrook Farms is a little concerned about the market and the price of oil. I know you think that if a gallon of gas goes to $10 people will drive less, but it seems to me that China will be there to pick up any slack. I hate to preach to the choir but in 6 months the cold season will be starting. I don't use oil to heat my home but wonder how people that do are going to pay their bills, especially the elderly.
I'm in cash. Any suggestions, Waxie?

Waxie said...

Yeah, be willing to short the market, or die. Or, stay in cash.

Financials are DEAD MONEY. Oil? Well, just remember, when everyone gets bullish on something it usually goes DOWN. having said that, I wouldn't short oil here unless you gave me the money and put a gun to my head. I think it'll get a pull in shortly, but its gonna take something drastic for that to happen, or just a blowoff top. Stay tuned.