I'll try to post this week a bit, but I'm taking some time off to heal.
Good luck to all,and remember to trade carefully here, the market is very choppy and trading in a very tight range. I haven't been doing much and don't plan on doing much until I'm fully recovered. Hopefully that will be shortly.
RULE! ANd, rock on!
Waxie
Monday, May 25, 2009
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Here I am...
No, I haven't been given away as part of the TARP program to some banker to be their trading slave!
Market hasn't really done much of anything, and I just wanted to take a few days off before reranting again!
What can I say? Market has stabilized and is treading water, and for the time being we're in a buy the dip kind of mood. It's funny, I was reading some of the dude they call Dr.Doom, Mark Faber and he was talking about the very same thing I've said. At the beginning of the year I said we would see 5000 UNLESS the Fed devalued currency by opening up the printing presses. And, obviously that's exactly what they have done or we would be below 5000 right now. NO question my friends, none at all. We were at 6600 until they decided to start 24/7 printing money.
I am not going to rehash some old issues I have with what's been done, what's done is done. Needless to say, though, I disagree wholeheartedly with the path that the government has gone down. I think it will lead us to a disaster that is unprecedented in our history. I continue to hope I am wrong. What's even more disturbing to me is that it appears that there is just one mass lie being perpetrated. How come all the data keeps pointing to positive things now, while clearly it's just not true. How come the news reports that more Americans say they are thriving when everyone I know is struggling? There is a big disparity between what the media and government is portraying and what reality is. BIG. And, it's quite disturbing and alarming that we are being forcefed such BS.
OK, so what do we do here? Hell if I know! Hehe, sorry dudes and dudesses, I think we just chop around in a range, a tight one for a little bit and then decide which way we go. My guess is down, but I'm certainly not rushing out to short stuff arbitrarily. I'd rather buy dips until proven otherwise. 8500 continues to be the pivot, though, which is what my topside near term target has and remains, so I think we should get a real dip as the next big move. But, again, I think it prudent to let the market tip its hand before making a bit commitment of capital. I'd rather be safe then sorry, in other words!
OK, it's late and that's it, I do like YHOO here, I think before the summer is over MSFT and YHOO are one and the same. We shall see, but I like YHOO here, using $15 as a pivot.
I will try to post tomorrow. Meanwhile, make sure you are trading with discipline and racking up the Ka-chingos!
RULE!
Waxie
Market hasn't really done much of anything, and I just wanted to take a few days off before reranting again!
What can I say? Market has stabilized and is treading water, and for the time being we're in a buy the dip kind of mood. It's funny, I was reading some of the dude they call Dr.Doom, Mark Faber and he was talking about the very same thing I've said. At the beginning of the year I said we would see 5000 UNLESS the Fed devalued currency by opening up the printing presses. And, obviously that's exactly what they have done or we would be below 5000 right now. NO question my friends, none at all. We were at 6600 until they decided to start 24/7 printing money.
I am not going to rehash some old issues I have with what's been done, what's done is done. Needless to say, though, I disagree wholeheartedly with the path that the government has gone down. I think it will lead us to a disaster that is unprecedented in our history. I continue to hope I am wrong. What's even more disturbing to me is that it appears that there is just one mass lie being perpetrated. How come all the data keeps pointing to positive things now, while clearly it's just not true. How come the news reports that more Americans say they are thriving when everyone I know is struggling? There is a big disparity between what the media and government is portraying and what reality is. BIG. And, it's quite disturbing and alarming that we are being forcefed such BS.
OK, so what do we do here? Hell if I know! Hehe, sorry dudes and dudesses, I think we just chop around in a range, a tight one for a little bit and then decide which way we go. My guess is down, but I'm certainly not rushing out to short stuff arbitrarily. I'd rather buy dips until proven otherwise. 8500 continues to be the pivot, though, which is what my topside near term target has and remains, so I think we should get a real dip as the next big move. But, again, I think it prudent to let the market tip its hand before making a bit commitment of capital. I'd rather be safe then sorry, in other words!
OK, it's late and that's it, I do like YHOO here, I think before the summer is over MSFT and YHOO are one and the same. We shall see, but I like YHOO here, using $15 as a pivot.
I will try to post tomorrow. Meanwhile, make sure you are trading with discipline and racking up the Ka-chingos!
RULE!
Waxie
Monday, May 11, 2009
Turnaround Tuesday?
Well, we had a one week repreive last week where we went up Monday. Other then that we've been going down nearly every Monday, even in this rally, only to reverse Tuesday.
Good shot we get same reversal action today/Tuesday, though not sure about anything here this second, we are really iffy either way. I think we might get another push higher here or before next week up to the 940s to 950s area and if that happens I think we'll get a decent wash. Monday we saw the market gap down and bounce on a nice gap bounce and then roll over again to finish near the lows after Meredith Whitney reiterated the obvious, the banks are absurdly priced and have no real way to sustain these levels longer term. While its impossible just to arbitrarily short and pick tops, I don't think you can do much of anything but trade here either way until we get a clear move up or down. I would lean short, but again, I think good shot we get another push higher before a real roll over of any magnitude. When in doubt, just stay out is always my motto.
In the meantime, we shall just have to see what shakes out. It's days/moments like these when things aren't clear that you have to protect your capital at all costs. Worst thing to do is take trades you are iffy on just to trade. Better to be patient and wait for the market to tip its hand.
Market has rallied very hard very fast. Its interesting, though, because the selloff Monday was on really light volume, so its not like people are in a rush to sell here and cash out. So, again, we're just in an iffy space and patience is key. Very very key.
That's all I have to say, I'm beat and hitting the hay!
RULE!
Waxie
Good shot we get same reversal action today/Tuesday, though not sure about anything here this second, we are really iffy either way. I think we might get another push higher here or before next week up to the 940s to 950s area and if that happens I think we'll get a decent wash. Monday we saw the market gap down and bounce on a nice gap bounce and then roll over again to finish near the lows after Meredith Whitney reiterated the obvious, the banks are absurdly priced and have no real way to sustain these levels longer term. While its impossible just to arbitrarily short and pick tops, I don't think you can do much of anything but trade here either way until we get a clear move up or down. I would lean short, but again, I think good shot we get another push higher before a real roll over of any magnitude. When in doubt, just stay out is always my motto.
In the meantime, we shall just have to see what shakes out. It's days/moments like these when things aren't clear that you have to protect your capital at all costs. Worst thing to do is take trades you are iffy on just to trade. Better to be patient and wait for the market to tip its hand.
Market has rallied very hard very fast. Its interesting, though, because the selloff Monday was on really light volume, so its not like people are in a rush to sell here and cash out. So, again, we're just in an iffy space and patience is key. Very very key.
That's all I have to say, I'm beat and hitting the hay!
RULE!
Waxie
Saturday, May 09, 2009
The fix is in...and I want a piece!
I have to say, this is the craziest market EVER. I've discussed ad nuseum about how the govt is puppet master, and we are seeing what I believe will go down in history as the single sickest and dumbest time period ever economically, or the most brilliant steering out of a crisis ever in the history of mankind.
If I had to bet, it would obviously be the latter, I just don't think anything they are saying is real. Everywhere I go and everyone I talk to in the real world it's the same story of blight and despair pretty much. The notion that things are stabilizing is pure fiction in my opinion, and a mass manipulation and propaganda to give people false hope.
It's sad, truly.
Having said that, this is without a doubt the best trading market since 1999/2000, and in some ways its even better then that! Why? Because as long as you don't get stubborn you almost have to make money. The only times I"ve lost really in the last 6 months are when I get stubborn and just ride a loser longer then I should have, or had too much of a bias one way or another. This rally I mised the middlye of it, I just didn't think we could go as far as we have, as fast as we have. I did call the bottom to the day pretty much, but I hopped off long ago and fought the tape for a while and it cost me. Now I am high of year easily and knock on wood am ROCKING beyond belief. We have been ON FIRE with Options Trader, FIRE!
This week is options expiration, we are so vastly overbought, so its anyones guess as to which way we go. I trust I'll trade out of it either way and into profits!
I think financials either get a huge breakout move, or we do pull in. I'll stay neutral with a bias to buy buy buy. Remember, the Fed isn't going to let us die 1000 points so fast, they will try to inject whatever is needed to prop us up again. It's quite insane, but it is what it is and thats all we can deal with.
So, keep going WITH the flow and not against it. In this tape that will make you money, as long as you stop out quickly when you are wrong and feel so strongly!
RULE!
Waxie
If I had to bet, it would obviously be the latter, I just don't think anything they are saying is real. Everywhere I go and everyone I talk to in the real world it's the same story of blight and despair pretty much. The notion that things are stabilizing is pure fiction in my opinion, and a mass manipulation and propaganda to give people false hope.
It's sad, truly.
Having said that, this is without a doubt the best trading market since 1999/2000, and in some ways its even better then that! Why? Because as long as you don't get stubborn you almost have to make money. The only times I"ve lost really in the last 6 months are when I get stubborn and just ride a loser longer then I should have, or had too much of a bias one way or another. This rally I mised the middlye of it, I just didn't think we could go as far as we have, as fast as we have. I did call the bottom to the day pretty much, but I hopped off long ago and fought the tape for a while and it cost me. Now I am high of year easily and knock on wood am ROCKING beyond belief. We have been ON FIRE with Options Trader, FIRE!
This week is options expiration, we are so vastly overbought, so its anyones guess as to which way we go. I trust I'll trade out of it either way and into profits!
I think financials either get a huge breakout move, or we do pull in. I'll stay neutral with a bias to buy buy buy. Remember, the Fed isn't going to let us die 1000 points so fast, they will try to inject whatever is needed to prop us up again. It's quite insane, but it is what it is and thats all we can deal with.
So, keep going WITH the flow and not against it. In this tape that will make you money, as long as you stop out quickly when you are wrong and feel so strongly!
RULE!
Waxie
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
STRESS TESTS, and a BIG shout out to the Feds, baby!
First off, I want to give a shout out to Timothy G, Ben B, and the big man himself - B.O.!
ROCK on, my brothers, rock on! I am making a mint, and we are just smokin' cause you rigged the markets! SWEET!
I sincerely hope we get the DOW to 25,000 cause that'll be awesome!
Now, some of you will say that I am being sarcastic, and to an extent that's true. I mean, as a citizen I am appalled by what's going on. It's a total joke. I love how every economist worth a dime says that the banking system is busted out, but we ran "stress tests" and we need less then $60 BIL to fix things! Awesome! The idea behind these stupid tests was/is that they will instill confidence and thus attract private investors to help them raise enough capital to "pass" these tests and continue to stay non-nationalized. The problem is, I really don't think anyone who is operating on their own, without government manipulation, would possibly look at these tests and take them seriously.
I had an attorney who once told me that there are things she can't say to a judge because they wouldn't pass the "laugh" test/meter. Citibank is apparently low man on the totem pole, they only need $5 BILLION. Seriously, that's so far out of touch with reality, even a numbskull like me reading a balance sheet can see that they have a gazillion (roughly a trillion it appears) of bad debt on their books that at some point has to be dealt with. So, the government is saying that with $5 BIL, if people started to pull their savings and accounts out in droves that C would be solvent? Be real, that definately does NOT pass the laugh test! That's ridiculous beyond belief! Hehe. How can they even say that with a straight face.
I will say that if that is the case, then C at under $4 is quite possibly the best stock BUY I have ever seen in all my years doing this. If I believed that I would buy as many shares as I possibly could and become an investor. C would be worth AT LEAST 25 to $35 a share. AT LEAST, if that were the case. C might trade a lot higher on this news, it'll be interesting to see. I'm torn here, as a semi-smart guy I am just sickened by this whole thing, as a trader I am very happy the govt did what they did, it just created another bubble that we can trade both up, and then back down, or partly down, and then up and then down again.
As a trader I can't fight this move, but I will stay on watch for a very near term top here. I've said it before, you need to ride these kinds of trendy moves, you can't try to pick tops any more then you can try to pick bottoms and catch falling knives.
We have a very big "buy the rumor, sell the news" trend here with results of these absurd tests be to released after the close Thurday/today. We've run into the news, as I said we would, so typically it would be an automatic to just short the actual news, and I may do so VERY VERY SMALL. Having said that, I am most likely to cash out my longs and be cash rich and then see what the market wants to do here and into next week. Thing is, even if these tests were really worth something, many of these banks are still way overbought. WFC was in the $40s at its PEAK, its now nearing $30s. Does ANYONE really feel that WFC is worth and should be trading near its HIGHS? Should it be trading as though nothing was or is wrong? I think anyone buying these things here is just asking for a smack down, whether it happens right away, or whether it takes a few months. It's just not possible that this is the end of the banking crisis and we have the all clear to invest signal. So, again, while I am not ready to just start shorting, I am ready to go to cash mostly and perhaps start legging into a couple of short positions in financials post stress test results. Best setup for that would be if we run again tomorrow into the close, and then get good stress test results and then we gap up big on Friday. That would be a good entry to the short side for sure for at least a poke/trade with TIGHT STOPS in case they decide to just squeeze us into infinity for the time being.
I've been swamped with emails asking when we can buy FAZ and SRS. Listen, again, folks, I've said it all along, you can not pick tops! There is only one TOP to a move like this, I think its upcoming here maybe as soon as tomorrow on a sell the news, but while there are only one top, there are usually many moves up til that point. Trying to fight the tape is a good way to kill your account. Going WITH the trend usually ends up paying off! DOn't be in such a rush to lose your money!
You want to TRY to catch a top? FAZ under $5 for a swing SMALL would be one way to try, there are a lot of reasons why this MIGHT be a short/near term top. If you use tight stops you won't have to worry about where to try to catch the top or go long FAZ and SRS. RISK/REWARD is all you should worry about, for those of you who emailed me and told me you were going long FAZ at $25, then $20, then $15, then $10 and now $5, you will be right soon, but you've been wrong all along and gotten crushed. Go WITH the market! Not against it!
RULE!
Waxie
ROCK on, my brothers, rock on! I am making a mint, and we are just smokin' cause you rigged the markets! SWEET!
I sincerely hope we get the DOW to 25,000 cause that'll be awesome!
Now, some of you will say that I am being sarcastic, and to an extent that's true. I mean, as a citizen I am appalled by what's going on. It's a total joke. I love how every economist worth a dime says that the banking system is busted out, but we ran "stress tests" and we need less then $60 BIL to fix things! Awesome! The idea behind these stupid tests was/is that they will instill confidence and thus attract private investors to help them raise enough capital to "pass" these tests and continue to stay non-nationalized. The problem is, I really don't think anyone who is operating on their own, without government manipulation, would possibly look at these tests and take them seriously.
I had an attorney who once told me that there are things she can't say to a judge because they wouldn't pass the "laugh" test/meter. Citibank is apparently low man on the totem pole, they only need $5 BILLION. Seriously, that's so far out of touch with reality, even a numbskull like me reading a balance sheet can see that they have a gazillion (roughly a trillion it appears) of bad debt on their books that at some point has to be dealt with. So, the government is saying that with $5 BIL, if people started to pull their savings and accounts out in droves that C would be solvent? Be real, that definately does NOT pass the laugh test! That's ridiculous beyond belief! Hehe. How can they even say that with a straight face.
I will say that if that is the case, then C at under $4 is quite possibly the best stock BUY I have ever seen in all my years doing this. If I believed that I would buy as many shares as I possibly could and become an investor. C would be worth AT LEAST 25 to $35 a share. AT LEAST, if that were the case. C might trade a lot higher on this news, it'll be interesting to see. I'm torn here, as a semi-smart guy I am just sickened by this whole thing, as a trader I am very happy the govt did what they did, it just created another bubble that we can trade both up, and then back down, or partly down, and then up and then down again.
As a trader I can't fight this move, but I will stay on watch for a very near term top here. I've said it before, you need to ride these kinds of trendy moves, you can't try to pick tops any more then you can try to pick bottoms and catch falling knives.
We have a very big "buy the rumor, sell the news" trend here with results of these absurd tests be to released after the close Thurday/today. We've run into the news, as I said we would, so typically it would be an automatic to just short the actual news, and I may do so VERY VERY SMALL. Having said that, I am most likely to cash out my longs and be cash rich and then see what the market wants to do here and into next week. Thing is, even if these tests were really worth something, many of these banks are still way overbought. WFC was in the $40s at its PEAK, its now nearing $30s. Does ANYONE really feel that WFC is worth and should be trading near its HIGHS? Should it be trading as though nothing was or is wrong? I think anyone buying these things here is just asking for a smack down, whether it happens right away, or whether it takes a few months. It's just not possible that this is the end of the banking crisis and we have the all clear to invest signal. So, again, while I am not ready to just start shorting, I am ready to go to cash mostly and perhaps start legging into a couple of short positions in financials post stress test results. Best setup for that would be if we run again tomorrow into the close, and then get good stress test results and then we gap up big on Friday. That would be a good entry to the short side for sure for at least a poke/trade with TIGHT STOPS in case they decide to just squeeze us into infinity for the time being.
I've been swamped with emails asking when we can buy FAZ and SRS. Listen, again, folks, I've said it all along, you can not pick tops! There is only one TOP to a move like this, I think its upcoming here maybe as soon as tomorrow on a sell the news, but while there are only one top, there are usually many moves up til that point. Trying to fight the tape is a good way to kill your account. Going WITH the trend usually ends up paying off! DOn't be in such a rush to lose your money!
You want to TRY to catch a top? FAZ under $5 for a swing SMALL would be one way to try, there are a lot of reasons why this MIGHT be a short/near term top. If you use tight stops you won't have to worry about where to try to catch the top or go long FAZ and SRS. RISK/REWARD is all you should worry about, for those of you who emailed me and told me you were going long FAZ at $25, then $20, then $15, then $10 and now $5, you will be right soon, but you've been wrong all along and gotten crushed. Go WITH the market! Not against it!
RULE!
Waxie
Monday, May 04, 2009
Turnaround Tuesday?
OK, so for the last few weeks we lost ground (at least 1 to 2%) on Monday and then turned around on Tuesday and went higher. Now that we went up 3%ish on Monday, do we reverse trends and go DOWN Tuesday? Probably so...but we'll see.
Market busted through S & P 900 like it was butter pretty much. A very bullish, very trendy day as the market just powered higher and higher into the close. Any pullback was bought with both fists.
We have come a long way in a very short time. While we are tremendously overbought, it is very bad trading form to try to pick tops, so I'm not about to, but if we gap up I think its an automatic short and if we gap down I would buy it, but on any rush I would look and use the 10 am rule for guidance. The question remains, are the bulls bullish enough to continue to buy right into and through the stress test results? We have a very small gap down here as I write this, showing the bullish bias is probably not ready to go down so easily. Remember that any decent drawdown funds are dying to get in here, so this market currently has a nice floor under it.
I want you all to think about stopping to try to pick a top. I've gotten so many emails asking the same silly question "when should I buy SRS and SKF!"
Just remember, while you are trying to pick a top, we've been ROCKING on the long side. Why are you so hungry to go short? Seriously. I'm definately bearish long term, trust me, but I'm a TRADER day to day, I could care less where we go, as long as I'm on the right side of the trade! Stop asking me dumb questions about when you should short the market, chances are you aren't going to pick the exact top and you'll get stopped out anyway, and even if you catch a good trade, you'll get greedy with that head space and when we repop, which we will, you will get crushed more than likely.
Go WITH the market. I would not be looking for places to short the market here, other than on gap ups or on a day like Tuesday POTENTIALLY as described above, but right now if you are thinking about swinings shorts for long periods, well, G-d bless you, you are a braver man than I am! Sorry, I'm not answering these foolish questions, so just stop asking. TRADE the freakin' market, don't try to pick tops or bottoms! Trust me, you'll make out a LOT better that way then trying to catch falling knives or rising ones as well!
I have a lot to say, but I am very tired, so going to bed. Watch GE for a break if it can hold $13 here it should see $15 near term. We'll see soon enough!
RULE!
Waxie
Market busted through S & P 900 like it was butter pretty much. A very bullish, very trendy day as the market just powered higher and higher into the close. Any pullback was bought with both fists.
We have come a long way in a very short time. While we are tremendously overbought, it is very bad trading form to try to pick tops, so I'm not about to, but if we gap up I think its an automatic short and if we gap down I would buy it, but on any rush I would look and use the 10 am rule for guidance. The question remains, are the bulls bullish enough to continue to buy right into and through the stress test results? We have a very small gap down here as I write this, showing the bullish bias is probably not ready to go down so easily. Remember that any decent drawdown funds are dying to get in here, so this market currently has a nice floor under it.
I want you all to think about stopping to try to pick a top. I've gotten so many emails asking the same silly question "when should I buy SRS and SKF!"
Just remember, while you are trying to pick a top, we've been ROCKING on the long side. Why are you so hungry to go short? Seriously. I'm definately bearish long term, trust me, but I'm a TRADER day to day, I could care less where we go, as long as I'm on the right side of the trade! Stop asking me dumb questions about when you should short the market, chances are you aren't going to pick the exact top and you'll get stopped out anyway, and even if you catch a good trade, you'll get greedy with that head space and when we repop, which we will, you will get crushed more than likely.
Go WITH the market. I would not be looking for places to short the market here, other than on gap ups or on a day like Tuesday POTENTIALLY as described above, but right now if you are thinking about swinings shorts for long periods, well, G-d bless you, you are a braver man than I am! Sorry, I'm not answering these foolish questions, so just stop asking. TRADE the freakin' market, don't try to pick tops or bottoms! Trust me, you'll make out a LOT better that way then trying to catch falling knives or rising ones as well!
I have a lot to say, but I am very tired, so going to bed. Watch GE for a break if it can hold $13 here it should see $15 near term. We'll see soon enough!
RULE!
Waxie
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