In CA there is a hurricane...
In Iraq we are still searching for WMD...
In Iowa a guy who thinks that the reason we have border patrols in New Mexico is to keep Pakistani's out of the US just won a caucus...
In Iowa a gal named Hilary finished third in a race her husband would surely win...
My Nets have won 5 straight...but ain't moving to Brooklyn til 2010!
And, in the stock market all hell is breaking loose, babies!
Once again people's 401K's are fast becoming their 201K's...
And, once again, and as always, our clients are ringin' in the New Year with some ka-chingos nonetheless!
Ya know, I just saw "There Will be Blood". First off, let me say that Daniel Day Lewis is SICK. I mean the guy is just on another level. There are actors and then there is this guy. He's a lock for another Academy Award and if he doesn't win it this year (he should have won for Gangs of New York) then the Academy should keep their day jobs. The dude is Awesome with a capital A!
And, why should you care? Well, the film is about a lot of things, but it has a lot to do with HUBRIS. Hubris and losing sight of what's important in da world, or in anyone's individual world. It's interesting how theme's kinda pop up in my own life depending on what I'm going through personally, and introspectively. I saw a play the other night on Broadway called AUGUST: Osage County. Really good play, well written, well acted and pretty powerful. The premise was far different than There Will be Blood, but there are some similarities me thinks.
When we go into a Bear Market, and we most certainly in one, what usually sinks investors is the notion that the market can't possibly keep going down. It's not most investors fault, it's our culture. It's ingrained in our psyche that the market HAS TO GO UP! Right? I mean, it's our God given right for the market to go straight to the moon, by golly!
I guess that's similar to Huckabee's comments the other day that The Lord made his economic plan. Funny, I didn't know that the Lord had that much free time on his hands, but hey, ya learn something new every day! Yes, I will bash just about anyone and everything at some point. That's my very own hubris! But, if you don't laugh at yourself, then ya just ain't livin' large, I always say!
This market will bounce. It may very well bounce this week upcoming at some point, but I will be shocked if 2008 doesn't see us at least in the 11,000s with a shot to dip below 10,000 if things don't improve in the housing market and the economy slips deeper into a recession (ah, sorry folks, for all the pundits who say that we won't go into one, I have news for ya - WE ALREADY ARE IN A RECESSION!). The real question to me, is just how bad this can possibly get. The thing is, the market will price in a year in advance, so if and when the market feels that we are basically a year away from the economy to turn around, then the market will rally. Of that I am pretty certain. Historically that has been the case, and since we play da TRENDS (they are your FRIENDS, right?), I will stick to that call. I simply do not believe we are a year away from an end. I think that the sub-prime mess and perhaps more importantly the credit crisis still have a HUGE way to go before they are unwound and we turn upwards. I guess we'll see, but I think investors could get really creamed this year (and maybe next). While everyone knows I'm not much of an investor anyway, I believe in actively managing your own account, what I will say is that as a trader it doesn't really matter what the market does. It goes UP, we make money. It goes DOWN, we make money! It reminds me of Raging Bull "if you win, you win, if you lose you win - you can't lose!"
Just remember, trying to pick bottoms is all about HUBRIS. The market does not have go up overall, and trying to pick bottoms can be very dangerous to your financial heath. I prefer to trade this market and wait for a sign (maybe The Lord will give it to me? Hmm)and then jump in for swing longs here. In the meantime, let's make sure to keep our powder dry for that time.
That's what I do as I date women. They mostly short me, so I go LONG and pray!
Prayer doesn't work when I'm dating, it's certainly not gonna work well with the markets! Stick with what you know. I clearly know how to get rejected, so I stick with that. If I didn't get rejected, hell, I wouldn't know what to do! I guess I could go have another baby and find another baby momma. I do well that way, so I could just play to my strenths! Same logic works in the markets! Learn to earn, and earn by learning!
This week upcoming is very important, let's see what shakes out and be ready to rumble when the opps present themselves. Same holds true in all aspects of my life, how bout you?
I'll be updating the blog nearly every day, check back Monday and I will try to give a pick or two here and there to keep things interesting!
In the meantime, go to https://www.trendfund.com/banners/bannerthru.asp?bannerid=855 check us out - FOR FREE! I'll even throw myself in as well, how's that for a bargain!!!
Happy New Year, all!
Michael "WAXIE" Parness