VERY VERY nice trading day! We caught that big move down in the am, riding POT, BG, MOS, CFC down. BIG moves all! And, then we caught the mother of all bounces midday! What's ironic is, just as we started to bounce and I saw the squeeze coming, CNBC guys were saying how we can't get any rallies and we need to bottom, etc. Ah, when ya least expect it...ka-chingo!
We caught, and I kid you not - BIDU for $20 (you read correctly), FSLR for $14s.
Yes, we had a couple of losers - LEH short, but a pretty SICK day all around! I made a lot of ka-chingos on Wednesday, my best day of the New Year by far! VERY VERY happy Waxieeeee! Doing the WAXIE JIG!
So, what from here? Well, I hope we gap down, I think its very buyable on no news. It's rare when a reversal day is a one day wonder. Usually shorts have to cover for at least another day and often 2 or 3 even. And, what I am now looking for are LAGGARDS!
I called SOLF calls late day and I think it has a very good shot to get $30s tomorrow or Friday. What usually happens is that the 1st squeeze day the main MOMO stocks motor (GOOG, BIDU, FSLR, etc) and the smaller momo names (SOLF, FSIN, CHNR, EDU, etc) usually take til the next days strength to go. A gap down would be a treasure as long as there is no bad news gapping us (and even then usually we'll go green at some pt the next day after a day like today).
One thing to keep in mind, early on it could be very VERY choppy because investors will still be leery to just jump in and buy stuff that's been getting killed lately. And, they are right. This was a BEAR MARKET rally and they tend to be swift, unexpected and volatile. They also are usually just a blip until we go back down to new lows. I suspect that will happen anyway, but I think we could get a decent size bounce first and again, I like some small ones here now. I can't give away all the juice for free, so why don't you FINALLY sign up for our free 2 week trial, a $200+ value for FREE.
Go to;www.trendfund.com and sign up on the website for the free trial.
I'm too beat to talk to you about my other issues, so it'll have to wait til tomorrow night!
Til then, happy trading and RULEEEEEE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
NEW HAMPSHIRE, CRYING POLITICIANS and COUNTRY WIDE...
Hilary wins!!! McCain wins!!!
Eh, whatever. Does anyone really care that much? Seriously, I don't know about you, but I really could give a rats buttocks. It's amazing that there was like 3 hours of news coverage yesterday about Hilary Clinton crying and getting choked up during a Q & A. Between that and Clemens playing that stupid tape you would think that there wasn't going on in the rest of the world that was important. Jeez louise. Meanwhile the market collapsed once again as it continues to deflate toward the 11,000s. The Russell 3000 is about to become the Russell "help me" at this point. Technology is just getting SMOKED. Financials, ah financials!
Anyone who thinks we have reached a real bottom is NUTS. CFC seems like its headed to ENRONVILLE = zero. I remember the CEO of Enron saying its all ok right before company went completely under. It just feels like the end is near for this beast. GS looks like $175 sure thing. I see no reason to step in front of this train wreck for more than a bounce intraday. Today we looked like we were going to motor into the close. It played out exactly as I had posted it would last night. I even gave you some ka-chingos here! But, then T said things were awful and that tanked us even worse. The worst is yet to come folks and I suggest that if you are not trading, you will be bleeding out of every orafice of your body. You will be crying. Do yourself a favor and LEARN TO EARN!
TRADE WITH USSSS!!! If you think that this market will be up at years end, I think you are on crack. This is the worst start to a year EVER in the history of the stock market. I think the worst hasn't nearly been felt. Having said that, we should get a capitulary move shortly. We almost had one today. You'll see large volume selloff and quick move down - violently bloody and that will be a good entry for a trend UP day at that point. It won't last long, but it'll give a reprieve. In the meantime, I would trade INTRADAY on the long side ONLY here. No need to try to catch some falling knives, folks. They still cut DEEP!
See ya tomorrow! RULE! CFC to zero, baby!!!
Rock on and rock hard
Eh, whatever. Does anyone really care that much? Seriously, I don't know about you, but I really could give a rats buttocks. It's amazing that there was like 3 hours of news coverage yesterday about Hilary Clinton crying and getting choked up during a Q & A. Between that and Clemens playing that stupid tape you would think that there wasn't going on in the rest of the world that was important. Jeez louise. Meanwhile the market collapsed once again as it continues to deflate toward the 11,000s. The Russell 3000 is about to become the Russell "help me" at this point. Technology is just getting SMOKED. Financials, ah financials!
Anyone who thinks we have reached a real bottom is NUTS. CFC seems like its headed to ENRONVILLE = zero. I remember the CEO of Enron saying its all ok right before company went completely under. It just feels like the end is near for this beast. GS looks like $175 sure thing. I see no reason to step in front of this train wreck for more than a bounce intraday. Today we looked like we were going to motor into the close. It played out exactly as I had posted it would last night. I even gave you some ka-chingos here! But, then T said things were awful and that tanked us even worse. The worst is yet to come folks and I suggest that if you are not trading, you will be bleeding out of every orafice of your body. You will be crying. Do yourself a favor and LEARN TO EARN!
TRADE WITH USSSS!!! If you think that this market will be up at years end, I think you are on crack. This is the worst start to a year EVER in the history of the stock market. I think the worst hasn't nearly been felt. Having said that, we should get a capitulary move shortly. We almost had one today. You'll see large volume selloff and quick move down - violently bloody and that will be a good entry for a trend UP day at that point. It won't last long, but it'll give a reprieve. In the meantime, I would trade INTRADAY on the long side ONLY here. No need to try to catch some falling knives, folks. They still cut DEEP!
See ya tomorrow! RULE! CFC to zero, baby!!!
Rock on and rock hard
Monday, January 07, 2008
Here's look at ya RECESSION!
OK, dudes, if you read yesterdays post I said we gotta fade any gap ups, see if we capitulate and then hop on board. Well, we did and we did, then we redied and then we bounced into the close. TOMORROW (Tuesday) I think there is a very good shot we have a nice up day. Best case scenario is that we gap DOWN because I think if we do you should be able to buy with BOTH FISTS! As that lunkerhead Booyah-head says - BUY BUY BUY!
Do you guys see what The Rocket is doing? Why don't these grown men stop it already and move on. Seriously, since no one seems to have definative proof, they are just drawing more attention to the whole dang thing.
Or, better yet, I'd love the see the pay-per-view RAW Wrestling between the two of them - WINNER TAKES ALL...steroids!
Frankly, isn't it MLB fault? I mean, they didn't police their own house and they had to have known. Did anyone see the All Star game in like what, 2002 or something when Sosa and McGwire were hitting 550 foot HR in the Home Run Derby? (I don't remember the year, and I'm not looking it up). I mean, these guys were belting HRs that are still orbiting the earth not ready to come down. I think that is what Chicken Little was referring to when he said that "The sky is falling, the sky is falling!"
EVERYONE knew, and everyone turned a blind eye. Kinda like the sub-prime crisis, right? I mean ,for years experts and laypeople have been saying that loaning non-qualified buyers mortgage money, with very little if any down payments, and with a 5 year ARMS deal HAD TO END BADLY!
And it did! This isn't even the ole hindsight is 20/20 folks, this is just something that anyone with half a brain knew about.
Speaking of which, have we fixed the damn dam's in New Orleans yet? We knew that was gonna happen to and we still did nothin' about it.
Speaking of which, tomorrow is the New Hampshire caucus. Wow, I am SO excited. If we had any dumber candidates we'd be swimming in a cess pool of dumbness.I really don't understand, there are so many intelligent people in our country and yet we have some really big dummies who we have to choose from.
It's kinda like being the smartest adult in a second grade class. And, frankly, I'd take most second graders over these dudes and dudess any day of the week in an IQ test.
Yes, I know, I'm a horrible person. It's ok, I've grown used to it and I kinda like myself despite it all. I get bashed all the time, so paybacks a beeatch.
Check out the SOLAR's here if we do bounce, I like FSLR, SPWR and STP. I also think GOOG should run a bit if it holds above $650 Tuesday after 10 am. We shall see. Keep your stops set if you play da game and if ya don't, then remember to feed the pigeons, cause they need to eat, too!
Did I tell you guys about my online dating experiences? I will tell you that there are some very funny people out there in da world. OK, last seminar I did people asked me what sites I was on. I'm not going to say. You'll never find me anyway, I post my brother's photo as my own. He's not as good looking, but he's a lot more stable. I figure I'll try to chanel his issues, and maybe he'll chanel my commitment phobic issues.
This is the thing. I have recently realized this, so it's good, right? I mean, they say 80% of the battle is being concious of it. Or, is it 8%. Shoot, I don't recall.
OK, so here is what I realized. I'm a trader. I'm a filmmaker. These things are, by definition, always in some sort of flux, or have definate end dates. Therefore, it is logical to draw the conclusion that I would have issues with commitment. And, what sucks about these online services is that that's one of the first questions I get asked. "Why are you single?"
And, "How come you gots two kids without ever being married?"
Why am I single? Why? In NYC the real question for the majority is "Why are you NOT single?" In a city where Sex in the City is every single woman's favorite show (and if you are married to someone who says it's their favorite show then she's probably straying dude, hate to break it to ya!) you shouldn't have to ask why someone is single.
The cool thing is, chances are if they are out with me, they have the same freakin' issues!
There are some very telling clues about whether someone is capable of committing. But, that's for another post, another day. I have a very recent killer story about a date I went on. More later.
So, as a trader, and a recovering commitment-phobe "Hi, my name is Waxie and I have commitment issues" Hi Waxie! I'm starting a 12 step program for other people just like me. I figure I can turn it into a dating site and charge nice money. Ka-chingo!
So, as I was saying before I got a bit tangential, as a trader I like to use the hit and run methodology. I think in this market you MUST be nimble. Just like Jack - Trader be nimble, trader be quick, trader jumped into the money pit!
I love how every day these pundits talk about volatility as though its a bad thing. As though it's like a disease "oh, the volatility is dreadful, you should be careful!" Really? Why? Today we had AAPL calls and they went for $2 in about 1/2 an hour. We had GS for $2. Yeah, we get our share of losers, but the bottom line is, if you are like Jack, you should be able to jump into your own money pit!
Now, back to my dating experiences. OK, I will tell you one story. Here goes -
I go out on this blind date. I was told that she was a hottie (whatever), very very bright (a must), funny (ditto) and sane (ditto ditto). OK, so we talk on the phone for an hour, have very nice conversation and we decide to go out to dinner. I ask her what she likes to eat, she says anything. My almost certain reaction is - SUSHI! Waxie LOVE SUSHI!
OK, so she says YES, but then about five minutes later says she prefers to go for something else. I suggest Italian - done deal.
I arrive, she's waiting there at bar. Wow, she is a hottie. An attractive blind date, coolio Mo-D.
So we sit down, and we have a very cool and very interesting conversation. And, she is FUNNY! I'm like ok, cool. I'm already projecting that there could be some sparks flying. 45 minutes, we're eating, the food is good, we're still laughing. Wow, ok. And then...minute 46 she says to me -
"I have to confess (ought oh), that the reason why I said I didn't want to go to eat sushi is because I thought I might be pregnant."
Wow, ok now, I know I have a very powerful presence and a reputation that extends to even foreign countries at this point, but I have never gotten a woman pregnant at a dinner table. Of that I am (almost) certain.
CHECK PLEASE! And, then to top it off, she says that she's not really into the guy and she wants to see me again. AND< when I put her in a cab (I had my car, but no ride was offered by this gentleman for this one)
she goes to kiss me. Now, I know guys who would find this situation intriguing. I'm not one of them. Although, in hindsight the upside was it woulda been safe, right? Hehe. Wheeeee!
And so it goes...and so it is now online! Hehe. Hope no one is offended, but I am who I am, don't ask me ta change cause it ain't gonna happen!
Peace out everyone, and let's kick some steroid induced market butt tomorrow!
RULE!
Michael "WAXIE" Parness
And, remember, it's easy to sign up for the FREE two-week trial to www.trendfund.com
Do you guys see what The Rocket is doing? Why don't these grown men stop it already and move on. Seriously, since no one seems to have definative proof, they are just drawing more attention to the whole dang thing.
Or, better yet, I'd love the see the pay-per-view RAW Wrestling between the two of them - WINNER TAKES ALL...steroids!
Frankly, isn't it MLB fault? I mean, they didn't police their own house and they had to have known. Did anyone see the All Star game in like what, 2002 or something when Sosa and McGwire were hitting 550 foot HR in the Home Run Derby? (I don't remember the year, and I'm not looking it up). I mean, these guys were belting HRs that are still orbiting the earth not ready to come down. I think that is what Chicken Little was referring to when he said that "The sky is falling, the sky is falling!"
EVERYONE knew, and everyone turned a blind eye. Kinda like the sub-prime crisis, right? I mean ,for years experts and laypeople have been saying that loaning non-qualified buyers mortgage money, with very little if any down payments, and with a 5 year ARMS deal HAD TO END BADLY!
And it did! This isn't even the ole hindsight is 20/20 folks, this is just something that anyone with half a brain knew about.
Speaking of which, have we fixed the damn dam's in New Orleans yet? We knew that was gonna happen to and we still did nothin' about it.
Speaking of which, tomorrow is the New Hampshire caucus. Wow, I am SO excited. If we had any dumber candidates we'd be swimming in a cess pool of dumbness.I really don't understand, there are so many intelligent people in our country and yet we have some really big dummies who we have to choose from.
It's kinda like being the smartest adult in a second grade class. And, frankly, I'd take most second graders over these dudes and dudess any day of the week in an IQ test.
Yes, I know, I'm a horrible person. It's ok, I've grown used to it and I kinda like myself despite it all. I get bashed all the time, so paybacks a beeatch.
Check out the SOLAR's here if we do bounce, I like FSLR, SPWR and STP. I also think GOOG should run a bit if it holds above $650 Tuesday after 10 am. We shall see. Keep your stops set if you play da game and if ya don't, then remember to feed the pigeons, cause they need to eat, too!
Did I tell you guys about my online dating experiences? I will tell you that there are some very funny people out there in da world. OK, last seminar I did people asked me what sites I was on. I'm not going to say. You'll never find me anyway, I post my brother's photo as my own. He's not as good looking, but he's a lot more stable. I figure I'll try to chanel his issues, and maybe he'll chanel my commitment phobic issues.
This is the thing. I have recently realized this, so it's good, right? I mean, they say 80% of the battle is being concious of it. Or, is it 8%. Shoot, I don't recall.
OK, so here is what I realized. I'm a trader. I'm a filmmaker. These things are, by definition, always in some sort of flux, or have definate end dates. Therefore, it is logical to draw the conclusion that I would have issues with commitment. And, what sucks about these online services is that that's one of the first questions I get asked. "Why are you single?"
And, "How come you gots two kids without ever being married?"
Why am I single? Why? In NYC the real question for the majority is "Why are you NOT single?" In a city where Sex in the City is every single woman's favorite show (and if you are married to someone who says it's their favorite show then she's probably straying dude, hate to break it to ya!) you shouldn't have to ask why someone is single.
The cool thing is, chances are if they are out with me, they have the same freakin' issues!
There are some very telling clues about whether someone is capable of committing. But, that's for another post, another day. I have a very recent killer story about a date I went on. More later.
So, as a trader, and a recovering commitment-phobe "Hi, my name is Waxie and I have commitment issues" Hi Waxie! I'm starting a 12 step program for other people just like me. I figure I can turn it into a dating site and charge nice money. Ka-chingo!
So, as I was saying before I got a bit tangential, as a trader I like to use the hit and run methodology. I think in this market you MUST be nimble. Just like Jack - Trader be nimble, trader be quick, trader jumped into the money pit!
I love how every day these pundits talk about volatility as though its a bad thing. As though it's like a disease "oh, the volatility is dreadful, you should be careful!" Really? Why? Today we had AAPL calls and they went for $2 in about 1/2 an hour. We had GS for $2. Yeah, we get our share of losers, but the bottom line is, if you are like Jack, you should be able to jump into your own money pit!
Now, back to my dating experiences. OK, I will tell you one story. Here goes -
I go out on this blind date. I was told that she was a hottie (whatever), very very bright (a must), funny (ditto) and sane (ditto ditto). OK, so we talk on the phone for an hour, have very nice conversation and we decide to go out to dinner. I ask her what she likes to eat, she says anything. My almost certain reaction is - SUSHI! Waxie LOVE SUSHI!
OK, so she says YES, but then about five minutes later says she prefers to go for something else. I suggest Italian - done deal.
I arrive, she's waiting there at bar. Wow, she is a hottie. An attractive blind date, coolio Mo-D.
So we sit down, and we have a very cool and very interesting conversation. And, she is FUNNY! I'm like ok, cool. I'm already projecting that there could be some sparks flying. 45 minutes, we're eating, the food is good, we're still laughing. Wow, ok. And then...minute 46 she says to me -
"I have to confess (ought oh), that the reason why I said I didn't want to go to eat sushi is because I thought I might be pregnant."
Wow, ok now, I know I have a very powerful presence and a reputation that extends to even foreign countries at this point, but I have never gotten a woman pregnant at a dinner table. Of that I am (almost) certain.
CHECK PLEASE! And, then to top it off, she says that she's not really into the guy and she wants to see me again. AND< when I put her in a cab (I had my car, but no ride was offered by this gentleman for this one)
she goes to kiss me. Now, I know guys who would find this situation intriguing. I'm not one of them. Although, in hindsight the upside was it woulda been safe, right? Hehe. Wheeeee!
And so it goes...and so it is now online! Hehe. Hope no one is offended, but I am who I am, don't ask me ta change cause it ain't gonna happen!
Peace out everyone, and let's kick some steroid induced market butt tomorrow!
RULE!
Michael "WAXIE" Parness
And, remember, it's easy to sign up for the FREE two-week trial to www.trendfund.com
Sunday, January 06, 2008
MONDAY, January 7th, 2008
Today's early action should be interesting. Frankly, if we get a decent size gap either way I think its a worthwhile fade. 10 am rule should also work nicely today. We should get some whipsaw action. I think the best setup would be a gap up, sharp move down with a large volume capitulation and then rocket UP! Will that happen? Well, its a fantasy right now, but I think if we don't get that capitulatory near term move down then we are likely to have trouble sustaining any real upside here. As I write this futures are slightly positive. Flat open is the worst of all worlds and I'd then sit on the sidelines, use 10 am rule and see which way they decide to push us. I think this week should be EXTREMELY volatile and offer PLENTLY OF PROFIT = Ka-chingos!
Make sure if you haven't tried our two week FREE trial, you do so NOW!
And, check back later for some more market insights, and to hear more about my oh-so-complicated existence on the planet us Sea Monkey's call = Aribadershce
Lator gators
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Make sure if you haven't tried our two week FREE trial, you do so NOW!
And, check back later for some more market insights, and to hear more about my oh-so-complicated existence on the planet us Sea Monkey's call = Aribadershce
Lator gators
Michael "Waxie" Parness
MARKET MAYHEM!
In CA there is a hurricane...
In Iraq we are still searching for WMD...
In Iowa a guy who thinks that the reason we have border patrols in New Mexico is to keep Pakistani's out of the US just won a caucus...
In Iowa a gal named Hilary finished third in a race her husband would surely win...
My Nets have won 5 straight...but ain't moving to Brooklyn til 2010!
And, in the stock market all hell is breaking loose, babies!
Once again people's 401K's are fast becoming their 201K's...
And, once again, and as always, our clients are ringin' in the New Year with some ka-chingos nonetheless!
Ya know, I just saw "There Will be Blood". First off, let me say that Daniel Day Lewis is SICK. I mean the guy is just on another level. There are actors and then there is this guy. He's a lock for another Academy Award and if he doesn't win it this year (he should have won for Gangs of New York) then the Academy should keep their day jobs. The dude is Awesome with a capital A!
And, why should you care? Well, the film is about a lot of things, but it has a lot to do with HUBRIS. Hubris and losing sight of what's important in da world, or in anyone's individual world. It's interesting how theme's kinda pop up in my own life depending on what I'm going through personally, and introspectively. I saw a play the other night on Broadway called AUGUST: Osage County. Really good play, well written, well acted and pretty powerful. The premise was far different than There Will be Blood, but there are some similarities me thinks.
When we go into a Bear Market, and we most certainly in one, what usually sinks investors is the notion that the market can't possibly keep going down. It's not most investors fault, it's our culture. It's ingrained in our psyche that the market HAS TO GO UP! Right? I mean, it's our God given right for the market to go straight to the moon, by golly!
I guess that's similar to Huckabee's comments the other day that The Lord made his economic plan. Funny, I didn't know that the Lord had that much free time on his hands, but hey, ya learn something new every day! Yes, I will bash just about anyone and everything at some point. That's my very own hubris! But, if you don't laugh at yourself, then ya just ain't livin' large, I always say!
This market will bounce. It may very well bounce this week upcoming at some point, but I will be shocked if 2008 doesn't see us at least in the 11,000s with a shot to dip below 10,000 if things don't improve in the housing market and the economy slips deeper into a recession (ah, sorry folks, for all the pundits who say that we won't go into one, I have news for ya - WE ALREADY ARE IN A RECESSION!). The real question to me, is just how bad this can possibly get. The thing is, the market will price in a year in advance, so if and when the market feels that we are basically a year away from the economy to turn around, then the market will rally. Of that I am pretty certain. Historically that has been the case, and since we play da TRENDS (they are your FRIENDS, right?), I will stick to that call. I simply do not believe we are a year away from an end. I think that the sub-prime mess and perhaps more importantly the credit crisis still have a HUGE way to go before they are unwound and we turn upwards. I guess we'll see, but I think investors could get really creamed this year (and maybe next). While everyone knows I'm not much of an investor anyway, I believe in actively managing your own account, what I will say is that as a trader it doesn't really matter what the market does. It goes UP, we make money. It goes DOWN, we make money! It reminds me of Raging Bull "if you win, you win, if you lose you win - you can't lose!"
Just remember, trying to pick bottoms is all about HUBRIS. The market does not have go up overall, and trying to pick bottoms can be very dangerous to your financial heath. I prefer to trade this market and wait for a sign (maybe The Lord will give it to me? Hmm)and then jump in for swing longs here. In the meantime, let's make sure to keep our powder dry for that time.
That's what I do as I date women. They mostly short me, so I go LONG and pray!
Prayer doesn't work when I'm dating, it's certainly not gonna work well with the markets! Stick with what you know. I clearly know how to get rejected, so I stick with that. If I didn't get rejected, hell, I wouldn't know what to do! I guess I could go have another baby and find another baby momma. I do well that way, so I could just play to my strenths! Same logic works in the markets! Learn to earn, and earn by learning!
This week upcoming is very important, let's see what shakes out and be ready to rumble when the opps present themselves. Same holds true in all aspects of my life, how bout you?
I'll be updating the blog nearly every day, check back Monday and I will try to give a pick or two here and there to keep things interesting!
In the meantime, go to https://www.trendfund.com/banners/bannerthru.asp?bannerid=855 check us out - FOR FREE! I'll even throw myself in as well, how's that for a bargain!!!
Happy New Year, all!
Michael "WAXIE" Parness
In Iraq we are still searching for WMD...
In Iowa a guy who thinks that the reason we have border patrols in New Mexico is to keep Pakistani's out of the US just won a caucus...
In Iowa a gal named Hilary finished third in a race her husband would surely win...
My Nets have won 5 straight...but ain't moving to Brooklyn til 2010!
And, in the stock market all hell is breaking loose, babies!
Once again people's 401K's are fast becoming their 201K's...
And, once again, and as always, our clients are ringin' in the New Year with some ka-chingos nonetheless!
Ya know, I just saw "There Will be Blood". First off, let me say that Daniel Day Lewis is SICK. I mean the guy is just on another level. There are actors and then there is this guy. He's a lock for another Academy Award and if he doesn't win it this year (he should have won for Gangs of New York) then the Academy should keep their day jobs. The dude is Awesome with a capital A!
And, why should you care? Well, the film is about a lot of things, but it has a lot to do with HUBRIS. Hubris and losing sight of what's important in da world, or in anyone's individual world. It's interesting how theme's kinda pop up in my own life depending on what I'm going through personally, and introspectively. I saw a play the other night on Broadway called AUGUST: Osage County. Really good play, well written, well acted and pretty powerful. The premise was far different than There Will be Blood, but there are some similarities me thinks.
When we go into a Bear Market, and we most certainly in one, what usually sinks investors is the notion that the market can't possibly keep going down. It's not most investors fault, it's our culture. It's ingrained in our psyche that the market HAS TO GO UP! Right? I mean, it's our God given right for the market to go straight to the moon, by golly!
I guess that's similar to Huckabee's comments the other day that The Lord made his economic plan. Funny, I didn't know that the Lord had that much free time on his hands, but hey, ya learn something new every day! Yes, I will bash just about anyone and everything at some point. That's my very own hubris! But, if you don't laugh at yourself, then ya just ain't livin' large, I always say!
This market will bounce. It may very well bounce this week upcoming at some point, but I will be shocked if 2008 doesn't see us at least in the 11,000s with a shot to dip below 10,000 if things don't improve in the housing market and the economy slips deeper into a recession (ah, sorry folks, for all the pundits who say that we won't go into one, I have news for ya - WE ALREADY ARE IN A RECESSION!). The real question to me, is just how bad this can possibly get. The thing is, the market will price in a year in advance, so if and when the market feels that we are basically a year away from the economy to turn around, then the market will rally. Of that I am pretty certain. Historically that has been the case, and since we play da TRENDS (they are your FRIENDS, right?), I will stick to that call. I simply do not believe we are a year away from an end. I think that the sub-prime mess and perhaps more importantly the credit crisis still have a HUGE way to go before they are unwound and we turn upwards. I guess we'll see, but I think investors could get really creamed this year (and maybe next). While everyone knows I'm not much of an investor anyway, I believe in actively managing your own account, what I will say is that as a trader it doesn't really matter what the market does. It goes UP, we make money. It goes DOWN, we make money! It reminds me of Raging Bull "if you win, you win, if you lose you win - you can't lose!"
Just remember, trying to pick bottoms is all about HUBRIS. The market does not have go up overall, and trying to pick bottoms can be very dangerous to your financial heath. I prefer to trade this market and wait for a sign (maybe The Lord will give it to me? Hmm)and then jump in for swing longs here. In the meantime, let's make sure to keep our powder dry for that time.
That's what I do as I date women. They mostly short me, so I go LONG and pray!
Prayer doesn't work when I'm dating, it's certainly not gonna work well with the markets! Stick with what you know. I clearly know how to get rejected, so I stick with that. If I didn't get rejected, hell, I wouldn't know what to do! I guess I could go have another baby and find another baby momma. I do well that way, so I could just play to my strenths! Same logic works in the markets! Learn to earn, and earn by learning!
This week upcoming is very important, let's see what shakes out and be ready to rumble when the opps present themselves. Same holds true in all aspects of my life, how bout you?
I'll be updating the blog nearly every day, check back Monday and I will try to give a pick or two here and there to keep things interesting!
In the meantime, go to https://www.trendfund.com/banners/bannerthru.asp?bannerid=855 check us out - FOR FREE! I'll even throw myself in as well, how's that for a bargain!!!
Happy New Year, all!
Michael "WAXIE" Parness
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