Wednesday, September 30, 2009


Zoom Zoom...Zoom...Zoom........Zoom?

Where we going? Nobody knows, but everybody says they do. That's the market. It's the old cliche - "opinions are like A-holes, everybody has one!"

No offense to anyone who doesn't.

In the meantime, I need to vent so if you don't want to hear me vent no need to read on. I am going to BLAST OFF about JP Morgan CHASE. Let me know what you think, or perhaps you can write to them or boycott them or whatever ya like. I am so annoyed with them its beyond belief. Maybe one of my newspaper friends can take up the cause. This is why banks SUCK, or at least one of the many reasons;

1)In early July I took my kids and a sitter to Woodloch Lodge in PA for a long weekend to relax, go fishing, play games and have fun with my girls. It's a GREAT place to spend quality time with your kids if you are on the East coast I highly recommend it. OK, so the dates were early July, the July 4th weekend. We got back I think on the 6th.

When we checked out I had a standing balance of $144 that needed to be charged. They went to put it through and wha-la, my credit card was declined. Now, ok, maybe business is off like everyone else's, but it ain't that bad!

So, I call the credit card company on the way home and ask why. They tell me that there has been suspicious activity on my card. I ask them how charging $144 was suspicious and they said that I didn't tell them I was going out of state. To which I replied that I didn't know they were my mother and I had to tell them where I was going! The guy laughed and then said something like - "oh, you were in PA?" Yeah, I was. You weren't in NYC the last two days? No, I wasn't. Well, did you charge roughly $7000 at Louis Vouton (sp?) and another roughly $7000 at Bergdorf GOodman? Ah, no, I didn't, I was in PA. I then asked him how the hell they declined my $144 charge in PA but didn't do a dang thing about $14,000 in fraudulent charges in NYC at places I NEVER EVER shop at!

OK, so he said I needed to file a claim and the bank would take care of it. I said ok, fine.

So, that's exactly what I did immediately. I filed the claim and thought that was that, they would obviously credit my account the $14,088.



They denied the claim saying that the signatures matched and thus the case is closed.

Huh? How could the signatures match since I didn't sign it? Well, sir, they do and we're very sorry but the case is shut.

OK, so obviously I said a few more choice things (I was nice, though, I realize it isn't the persons fault who is taking the call). I was livid.

2)I went to the local police station and filed a criminal complaint. The police were awesome, I have to say. Within days they said they had a suspect and I spoke to Detective Llyod several times. Very attentive, very professional and very compassionate. I was impressed.

3)A few days later I get another call, the Assistant DA calls me and says they apprehended the suspect and he admitted that he did the charges. He asked me to sign a paper for the Grand Jury saying that I didn't have posession of the card the days in question, which I did. That was today.

4)I called CHASE again and was told the same thing, that there's no way for Chase to play detective (thank God, they are bad enough at as it is) and they are still denying my claim, the signatures match.

5)I call the ADA back and ask him if the signatures match. He basically laughs and says that not only don't the signatures remotely match, but on the bill is the suspects actual name! It isn't even my name! So, no, the signatures don't remotely match, nor do the names.

6)I called CHASE back again and this time asked to speak to the Supervisor again. He said the same thing, the case is closed, but he then lied to me I believe because he says that Chase filed a complaint with the Better Business Bureau. I pressed him on this and he retracted it saying that they hadn't filed but would. I told him what the ADA said and asked him to call the ADA. He said he couldn't and that was that, sorry. BUT, Chase values my business! Since I've been there for over 10 years and have many accounts with them, I'm sure they do. I asked him why they would basically be complicit in a crime (I was being dramatic, sort of) and then tell me they value my business. He said he was sorry (they say that more then my kids do for breaking something).

So, now what? Now I have to go after Chase to get my $14,088 dollars, spend hours upon hours dealing with this nonsense, and pay an attorney to do something that Chase should have been gracious enough to do. They are supposed to cover this, that's what I have always been told. I guess not.

So, there it is, my rant of the night. I am so pissed off. #1 it sucks someone stealing your identity. #2 it sucks someone stealing $14,000 from ya #3 it sucks that the bank that is supposed to cover you and protect your money says F-you basically. #4 Now I have to spend time and money to deal with it

OK, so it's not a trade, but hey, this is my blog and I needed to vent. I get all kinds of stories from you guys and gals, hehe, so there ya go. Man, I tell ya, I lose more and more respect for these banks every day. If someone told me this story I'd be sick for them. I want justice!

As far as the market goes, short CHASE! SHORT THE BANKS!

Well, ok, in all fairness my sorted story has nothing to do with trading, I do like the banks short here, though, and I do think we pull in and I do like the dollar to get a temporary but potentially vicious squeeze here to start the new quarter.

We'll see soon enough, I own some puts and will reverse if we break to the upside. As I've been saying, watch 1050 on the S & P, that's STRONG pivot and will tell us which way we are gonna go here, either below 1000 or to new yearly highs. We ain't sitting still, that I can assure ya!

Trade 'em, don't own 'em!


Michael "Waxie" Parness

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

It's time - HELL'S BELLS...

I saw AC/DC more then any band I've ever seen, other then maybe the Pretenders and the Clash. But, that was many moons ago and these days I'm more likely to see the Jonas Brothers and Miley Cyrus or Katey Perry with my girls then I am the Boss or U2. And, of course Chissy Hyde is like 90 and Bon Scott is long ago gone, but not forgotten, and of course Joe Strummer ain't strummin' on this planet any longer.

And, gone are the good ole days of the market being run by fundementals, or value engines. The market is now run by the government, and the friends of the friends are privy to info that no one should be. The rich get richer and the poor, well, they are plum out of luck.

A guy I never read in the NY Post actually did a nice job of getting some revealing info related to Paulson and the calls he made to GS the day last Sept. when the market found what at the time was a near term bottom, and what definately saved GS from going under. The day GS was ready, willing and able to go the way of LEH and BSC Paulson apparently was on the phone with GS all day. In fact, he seems to have called GS more then he called Bernanke. Does anyone really doubt that GS had the inside skinny on what was about to unfold and that the Fed intervened at the exact moment when poster child for greed and evil, the NY Yankees of Wall Street was about to meet the Grim Reaper of insolvency itself? If you do, please stand up and then kindly sit your dumbass down again and let me sell you a piece of the Brooklyn bridge!

And, of course, who has made more money trading this market then I have, and probably everyone else combined has since that fateful day? Take 1 wild guess, and I think you'll pin the tail right on that donkey boys puck marked face, babies and gentlemen.

And, now that we've just had the best quarter possibly in the history of the US stock market, now what? I have been pointing to Oct. as the month when we finally do get that selloff everyone's been waiting for. The market looks poised to drop. How far and if it'll actually happen remains to be seen, but I would not want to be long here past tomorrow for swings, at least until we prove we can bust and hold 1075on the S & P on a close, which so far we've been unable to do. The trend is clearly still in UP mode, but I think we will get a pullin here shortly and while I'm not betting the house, I'm willing to go on record saying such. If I'm wrong, then I'm long and if I'm right then I'm light. I can't least I think that's the case, right?

I talked about it in my Marketcast class tonight, 1050 on the S & P remains a VERY VERY key #. If we can't hold that here we should and could easily fall to below 1000 VERY VERY quickly, which is what I think may very well happen.

Will it? We shall see, yes, we shall see soon enough. And, one way or another the only sure thing is, I have tickets to Z-100 Jingle Balls in December and probably I'll be seeing Lady Gaga and thinking about what Chrissy woulda looked like in those outfits she wears.


See ya on the other side,

Michael "Waxie" Parness

*Look for our new infomercial, it's finally rolling out next week on a Cable station near you!!!

Sunday, September 27, 2009

The blue algae problem...

So apparently there is killer algae out there infecting humans and killing animals.
I think that the same can be said about the banking system and some of the initiatives that are being thrown at the flooding dam. I have officially given up on this new administration doing anything worth a dang. It's unfortunate, but for all the tough talk and wonderful "hopeful" promises, we are still run by the lobbies and the banks. When exactly is Goldman repaying the $13 BILLION they got from taxpayers in the AIG fiasco? Or, is the check in the mail and she won't get pregnant if they do it standing up?

In the meantime, whilst I hold my breath and wait for someone to actually do the right thang, this market is so ready to roll over it's ridiculous. We should get that one last nice push up into quarters end here early this week but then I think we'll see the selloff everyone's been waiting a while for. The dollar reversal should be a good place to short and the market could then get another bounce on dollar weakness (or re-weakness). The trend continues in that the markets rise is 100% correlated to dollar weakness. As the dollar gets devalued then all commodities should rise lock step with the fall of our virtually worthless currency.

For Window Dressing I am watching the small China plays I have mentioned before here.

In the mean-meantime, does anyone have any Yankee playoff tickets that are decent they want to do me a favor and sell me? Or, I'll trade for coaching or other services? Or, I'll buy you dinner if that works as well.

Best and RULE as always -


Thursday, September 24, 2009

The Grim Reaper...

Well, nailed that open, and the day pretty much, eh? What an easy fade that was, my gads.

So, here's the deal. I make this statement, you can tell me I suck if I'm wrong, that's ok. WE're just about ready to lose this market, and thus lose 1000 on the S & P.

Best case here we get one more push into Oct. 1st, but either way I sold all my longs and am now officially not bullish. I'm in trader elite mode, I want to be mostly, if not all cash and I want to be nimble. I want to play the open and I want to trade the ranges. I do not want to commit to longs for more then technical bounces here. I think we're likely to start getting some breakdowns off key technical supports.

I think 800s S & P is likely before year end. We should get a wide range to trade, though, which is great even if I'm wrong. It''s unlikely to be a straight shot here either way. Just play the ranges, folks, play the ranges!

RIMM after hours got SLAUGHTERED, I mean, total death. It'll be interesting to see how far down they drag AAPL and other tech. Or, does it just set up a squeeze. I have to say, I was thisclose to buying some puts on RIMM right at the close, obviously regret not doing so, but it was the right move not to take that trade, it seemed too easy.

I think any stock disappointing will get murdered here, look out belowwwwww.

Did ya catch AONE? Nice call, eh? Nice trade. Let's see what shakes from here, I would put it on the radar as that will be one to trade on breakouts and off supports in days and weeks ahead, it should remain a pretty hot stock.

Also watch ART, which IPOed as well, has great pedigree and I suspect it gets a rush off of any real drawdown as well.

We'll see what shakes out, and thanks for all the heads up and great emails, keep 'em coming!



Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Test here...

Look for a gap fade assuming we get one either way. Usually FOMC week the day after follows the day of, so a gap up is definately fadeable short in my opinion.

That was a wicked selloff post FOMC, it'll either be a one day wonder or a more extended move down. Its interesting here since we're a week out of end of the quarter, but have that weekend in a couple of days so anything can happen here in front of that. The wicked selling could be ominous that the Emperor finally is starting to realize it has no clothes, or...just another buying op!

Thanks for the comments about last nights post. I'm tired late at night, what can ya do if I get a little dark sometimes, but as always I appreciate the comments, even if they don't agree with mine. Hey, that's America baby, and that's why ya gotta represent.

As I write this futures are muted.

Big IPO coming today as well, AONE. It'll be interesting to see what they open it at. If it opens reasonable its a good buy, but more then likely it'll get bid to kingdom come. Best would be if we had a really down am and it came in the midst of that, get a decent open and I would buy it and see if I can catch a few points. Otherwise will just sit back and enjoy the fireworks!

In the meantime, make sure you protect your gains here, folks! You been warned! End of quarter sometimes starts a wee bit early and while I can still see us hitting 10k here shortly, I wouldn't be shocked if we saw our peaks for the moment either. Yeah, I'm non-commital here, I'd rather just be nimble.

There's a Chinese stock I like and own small that is under accumulation it appears. I'm trying to get some more info and will tell clients as soon as I do, but so far what I know I like it a lot...stay tuned!



Tuesday, September 22, 2009

FEAR...loathing...and window dressing...

I get asked all the time what clients should do when they have a nice fat profit. Should they just sell and take the monster ka-chingos, or should they sell partial, or should they sell none of it and keep riding.

My answer is #1 I can't answer what you should do, I can only say what I would and have done. And, that's all of the above depending on the situation, but my pat answer would almost always be -

1)Make sure you book some profits as the trade goes your way.
2)Let your profits run, while trailing with stops so that if it reverses you don't get killed on a trade you should have ROCKED on!
3)Most of all be proactive, don't just sit there and sway in the breeze, make sure you protect profits and if you see them falter take decisive and quick action. Don't let a small problem become a big one.

I've been thinking alot lately about the bigger picture and I've come to the conclusion that this is a microcosm of the world, or more perhaps OUR world (US of A).

What seems obvious to me isn't always obvious to someone else until/unless they get hit over the head, or lose too much being stubborn.

See, thing is, I get pissed off every time I go to a sports game (Mets/Nets/Jets) and the "security" barely pats me or anyone else down. I get pissed off when the airplanes don't search people before they get into the terminal. And, I get mad when just about anyone can come into the schoolyard where my daughters go to school.

Why are people allowed to do this? It's simple, we have become a fast food nation where we can sit back and relax and we don't seem to think it worthwhile to do anything until after the fact. I remember this block by my house when I was growing up and EVERYONE, including the police, knew that it was a very dangerous block and that traffic didn't stop sometimes when kids crossed and that sooner or later someone was going to get killed...and that's what did happen. I don't recall the whole event, but I remember a little girl getting run over and killed and THEN the city put in a stop sign. And, I remember back then thinking "Why didn't they put that stop sign in BEFORE that little girl was killed." We should be more proactive, at some point does anyone doubt there will be another terrorist attack, or two, or 10? And, that's why I hate not being searched.

And, so you say "Waxie, what does this have to do with the stock market?" Well, like I said, its a mircrocosm of market psychology, and vice versa. In the market it's better to take some profits then it is to try to catch tops. Then you are a mere mortal and no longer a G-d.

Be proactive, I've said this here before, it would be great if our leaders had VISION and could plan for the inevitable dangers before they happened. Same can and I am saying about the market. We very well should see 10k this week but I'm not sure beyond that, I just know that right now the complacency meter is off the charts. Everyone thinks the market is just going to keep going, and hey, it may, but I prefer to trade a tad tighter and if I miss a move, I miss a move.

Another saying for clients "Don't be in such a rush to lose your money!" VISION folks, VISION. And, yeah, I think you should write to your congressman or woman and tell them to get proactive.



Saturday, September 19, 2009

BIG WEEK ahead...and more...

This week is gonna be very telling. We are so overextended its absurd. The bears keep making this case and they keep getting completely crushed. The bull case is that the economy is turning, earnings are on their way higher as estimates were/are too low and that in the coming months as the economy picks up steam, so will the market. Further, the dollar is weakening and money has to go somewhere if its coming out of the dollar. When the dollar weakens the natual assumption is that hard assets will benefit. That includes commodities (metals, agriculture, oil), Gold (can be lumped into commodities, but it's main value is a perceived hedge against inflation and dollar weakness), and real estate. It also can include the stock market since as the dollar weakens it means that a $50 stock is actually worth as much as the dollar is worth comparatively. In other words, if the dollar were to weaken by let's say 50% then a $50 stock in theory is worth $75. That's part of what most pundits don't ever bring up. And, in my opinion its the a much bigger piece of the puzzle then anything else that is spoken about or analyzed. It's also one very real danger sign in terms of the long term stability best case and viability of the US economy.

I am hesitant to speak about certain things that remotely seem like a large conspiracy, but suffice to say that I'm not happy about the way the government is handling this situation, not in the least and I thikn there is a lot of "noise" being tossed around to distract from the global picture here. It is a total joke, in my opinion, that the accepted "wisdom" is that this bailout is that if the governement didn't send TRILLIONS of dollars to and through the banking system, the same place where the "this" all originated.

There is a systematic failure, the system should have been allowed to fail. Period. I know I'll get a few emails telling me that it's ridiculous, or unpatriotic even. Perhaps, but that's part of what makes this country great.

Let's leave it at that, other then to say that all we've really accomplished is continuing the travesty. These same banks and brokerage firms, and you can start with GS, MS, BAC, MER, C and work your way down to a whole host of others, are doing exactly what they were doing before the bailouts. Perhaps even worse. It's a total joke. They whitewash this BS by saying that leverage has come down to 15 to 1. 15 to freakin' 1. Let me repeat that, 15 to freakin' 1.

15 to 1 and they repeat TARP at what, about 10% interest to the American public, to the tax payer. Is this a hoax? Is this a horribly unfunny joke? So, basically they have $15 for every $1 and they repay TARP. Think about it.

And, why do they repay TARP? So they can pay themselves 100s of millions, if not BILLIONS (that's B as in BILLIONS). They use taxpayer money to repay taxpayer money and then they use that money to pay themselves.

That's patriotic? All in the name of saving the economy, saving the American way. Well, if the American way is to use and abuse the system because either the people in charge are too knuckleheaded to figure it out, or are simply complicit with it, then I will choose to do something else.

Now, my brain may not work as well as it did a few months ago, but it still works well enough to figure out that unless there is a systematic change there will never be a return to prosperity, or true capitalism, in this country, period.

15 to 1 freakin' leverage. As a trader we use leverage, it's called margin, its called futures, its called options, its called a lot of things, but even we try not to use more then 4 X's leverage. Yes, options give you more but there is a defined risk. The 15 to 1 margin these companies use has created a black hole where the entire monetary system was and I believe is still one big ponzi scheme. It's simple math, does anyone really believe that if everyone asked the banks for their money back so they could have actual ownership that the banks wouldn't be short 100s of trillions (that's TRILLIONS with a T, fyi)? Of course they would.

OK, so, yes, I went tangencial on ya, but so be it. In the meantime, I will say the biggest reason the market would go up next week is WINDOW DRESSING.

I think one of the best trades that would set up beyond this next week is the Dollar reversal post Window Dressing. I'm probably going to take that trade if the dollar continues to be weak this week. I don't think it'll last, but I do think the dollar will bounce pretty hard and will provide a nice profit if played correctly. Meanwhile the market has several big events this coming week as well. RIMM reports on the 24th and I am long calls on it, and have been. We're up very very nice on it and I think it could have a bit more room to run into earnings, but my stops are now trailing. The stock trends to move hard into earnings but a day or two before sometimes pulls in if I recall correctly. The stock often gets upgraded before earnings, though that's always a crap shoot. Amtech usually weighs in on the stock both ways, though again if I recall they are usually bullish on it. You know booyahhead will weigh in more then likely as well. The stock has run a lot, but it'll see $100 if they push it up after a blowout quarter. That's a big if, but I wouldn't be surprised. PALM had really good #s and every Verizon I've been in says that the Blackberry's sell like hotcakes. I always ask, not exactly the most extensive research anyone's ever done, but hey, the stock blew out last quarter and has been a skyrocket in flight, so it's tough to short this thing with any confidence. Of course, I don't plan on holding it over earnings either, my play as usual is to play INTO earnings, not to guess what happens afterwards.

If RIMM performs well it bodes well for AAPL stock to perhaps try $200. Also watch the ag stocks here, they got upgraded late last week and if we do get a push that's a sector that has lagged the latest move. I would watch POT. MOS and IPI as they got some interesting action last week.

OK, so the bullish argument is, for me, Window Dressing as we come to the end of the quarter. I really don't want to be heavy either way here. We've had an amazing run, I had a really awesome week last week, one of my very best in a long while. I prefer to preserve my capital and lighten up til we see what shakes out here. Remember, when in doubt, stay out. Capital preservation is always paramount to success.

I think that more then likely the week finishes higher then it is now. So, early week weakness is probably good to buy into. We'll see soon enough.

In the meantime, thanks again to all for the well wishes, I do appreciate it.

If you are twitter I am going under - REALWAXIE - as my user name for now so that's where you can find me and follow along. This blog goes directly there if that's easier for ya all.

Have a good rest of the weekend and Shana Tov'a to all who celebrate the Jewish New Year.

Me? As always, I'm just a Waxie, what do I know about nothin'?


Michael "Waxie" Parness

Wednesday, September 16, 2009


I related this to the class I did tonight on PIN ACTION, I'm repeating it here since this is where I planned on talking about it since I got SSOOOOOOOO many warm wishes and heartfelt emails wishing me well whilst I was away and not blogging. It's appreciated and feels good when one is sent good tidings.

As many of you know, I was in a pretty bad car accident in March of this year. When it first happened I really just thought I'd bounce back immediately. I'm a big tough dude and I don't like to know my own mortality. I grew up a fighter on many levels and in some ways part of my successes in life are due to the fighter in me and that I pride myself in never giving up.

Unfortunately I didn't bounce back immediately, and in fact still have some issues related to the accident. I won't bore you all with the details, but suffice to say that having a headache for 6 months straight isn't fun. I've never liked taking medication either and they never seem to agree with me, so that's been horrid. Anyone who's had a head trauma knows how putrid it is and feeling like I'm a smart guy it has been hard to adjust to not remembering just about anything half the time.
The irony is, of course, that my stock market abilities haven't been impacted, I guess I'm like Rain Man, or a stock whisperer or something like that. Let's hope it stays that way.

But, I do need to relate this piece of it as I think its very valuable for both you all and myself. One of the things that I feel that I offer to clients, and to anyone who takes any classes or reads my blog here even, is the opportunity to learn from my mistakes so that you many times don't have to make them yourself. And, many mistakes I've made I have learned to make the adequate adjustments to limit my downside when wrong, or when a trade goes awry.

One of the Top 5 rules I give people and I relate in my Psychology of Trading classes and DVDs is that when you are "not yourself" you shouldn't trade, period. Your girlfriend dumps you (happens all the time to me, though I don't get past 1st dates you guys all know!), your dog dies, you have swine flu, or are just down because of whatever reason. Or, if you get in a bad car accident and all your doctors beseech you not to trade!

Yes, that's where I come in and will relate my journey. I traded after the accident, a day or two after literally. Even though I was told by something like the 8 doctors I now have not to. Why? Well, I'm Waxie, of course, and being Waxie means I am immortal, I am legend...right? I can do ANYTHING!!! Right?

Perhaps, but probably not, at least not practically speaking,and not with a bad brain injury. And, the thing is, its not like my picks or ideas were off, they were pretty dead on, but my implication was dead WRONG and it cost me.

Now, the thing is, I've had a helluva run the last year or so (or 12 years or so if you want to get literal on me!) trading the market. I have made a horrid market look like it was/is my concubine. I made millions. I also had the audacity to think that all the doctors, and all my family and friends were wrong, and I was right and I didn't need to heed anyone else's advice...including following my own rules.

So, I had a horrible time and the thing is, and I know from talking to enough of you newbies over the last dozen years that many will relate, when you make that mistake and you aren't "yourself" (who was I? I don't remember, I have no memory, hehe, sort of!) you then have the tendency to compound the mistake you made in the first place and make it worse, even much worse.

Now, to preface this post, it's not like I cremated myself. Not at all, but I should have known better. And, see, thats the thing. I DO know better when I am feeling well. I can't know better when I am not and went through a week or two when I couldn't remember where I lived basically. This was a very valuable and very expensive lesson and one I will not do again, trust me.

I've been through a couple of near death experiences since I started this trading stuff. In 2001 I nearly died and I flatlined, literally. I was dead. Thing is, making money is great, we all want to do it, no one would read me if they didn't think I could help them make Ka-chingos, but the cliche is really true - if you don't have your health, you really have nothing at all. I ended up taking a lot of time off, went away for a few weeks to CA to relax and work out and do physical therapy. In many ways I feel a ton better, and in some I feel frustrated I am not making the progress I'd like to. I'm told I will be fine, so I take it on faith that that is the case, and I will be. I always fight and I always come back, even if it takes a bit longer then I'd like at times.

What's the point of this? Well, I wanted to get that off my chest, I want to thank those of you who took the time to send me those many email well wishes and I want to tell you that trading, like life, isn't about perfection, its about learning from your mistakes, not compounding them and remembering always whats important in your life. My girls mean everything to me, trading means something to me but not much ultimately if I don't have my health and if I don't listen to anyone else who knows better then me.

By the way, since that couple weeks rough patch I've made a pretty sick recovery that's very SWEET, and while I have some regrets that I even had to make that recovery, the only thing I can do and the only thing I have control over are what I do moving forward. Looking back only helps if we use the look back to learn and use that knowledge in the present moment(s). If not, we are doomed to repeat the same mistakes over, and over, and over again. That is the definition of insanity, making the same mistakes and expecting different results. If you do the same things, you will reap the same things.

I will be posting here, though I'm taking my time so if I don't post for a day or two, or a few, don't fret, I always am around and you can always shoot me an email, I answer them all as long as they are not nasty. Life's too short, this I am well aware of and I plan on sticking around for quite a while no matter what my brain feels like. And, no matter what my trading day looks like. It is only money after all. Trust me when I say this, if I could pay everything I have to feel really better then I have the last few months, I'd sign on the dotted line in a heartbeat.

Everything is relative, and I'm grateful it wasn't worse and that my daughter is perfectly fine.

I ain't immortal, I'm just a Waxie and just a dude who can trade pretty darn good, except when I'm not myself. I needed some lovin' more then I needed a few extra dollars.

Peace to all and to all a good night, hope this wasn't too sappy, I think this is all part of the journey and if it prevents one of you from trading when you shouldn't be for whatever reason, then that's all that matters.

Night all and remember one thing and one thing only - RULE, cause that's the only way to live -----

Michael "Waxie" Parness
on Twitter sign up to follow me! my nickname is - REALWAXIE
Email me at -


Will the market ever rest? Will the dollar ever stop falling? Will Gold be $5000 an ounce?

It's kinda amazing to me that there is so much hoopla made over the market rally, yet no one seems to really care that the dollar is falling faster then the bionic man can run.

There is an inherent problem with this scenario and frankly it's a very ugly problem that will probably haunt us for a long time to come.

I suspect that the dollar will get a pretty sharp reversal, and I intend to buy it come Oct as this type of move post window dressing should reverse pretty hard in a squeeze. It may not last that long, but it should happen.

Either way, this type of move does not bode well for any market in the long run. At the beginning of the year I said the only thing that would save the US equity markets was a very weak dollar and that's exactly what's unfolded. The market was in freefall and the Fed stepped in and started the printing presses. And, yeah, the markets stopped falling, but at what price? And, while I am happy to take money from the markets (been a KILLER sweet week!) due to a huge bubble, I find it disturbing that we are celebrating the death of the dollar. I also worry that the move is premature, meaning that its almost like a sprinter horse stretching out to a mile and a half race. He or she can dominate and open up 12 lengths early but inevitably has to fade VERY fast late. How high this market can go is unknown, I said it could see 1150 on the S & P, but honestly it's anyone's guess and in this market it doesn't pay to fight the tape, just go with it until it reverses and then go the other way. Anyone trying to pick tops here has been run over. At some point that will be the right play, but for now I prefer to go WITH the market, not against it.

Watch for PIN ACTION here and Friday as I discussed in my class Wednesday night. I hope you guys and gals enjoyed it, I enjoyed teaching it.

I'll post another one right after this if I can stay up, in the meantime, as I said yesterday and been saying, this market has a nice floor under it called Window Dressing. Its unlikely we get a huge pullin until (if we do pullin ever again!) after the end of September. So, stay the course, use proper money management, definately fade the GAPS (its working brilliantly!) and stay tuned for more classes upcoming!

Oh, I'm now on Twitter as - REALWAXIE, sign on and follow me!



Monday, September 14, 2009


It's amazing, I finally have something to say. Life is grand.

Eh, the headline is meaningless, I doubt we're dumb enough to start a game of chicken with China over tariffs. This notion rears its ugly head every year or so and if we were dumb enough to do that it would potentially topple any shot we do have of bailing ourselves out. You can't ever return to growth by growing inward and shutting off everything else, or in this case the country we owe the most money to by trillions. That would be a very tragic mistake. It's kinda like a NYC street fight - "I'm gonna kick your, I'm gonna kick yours!" and that goes back and forth 50 times until they get tired of saying it and then it just ends and no one gets their butts kicked.

I am watching Tim Guithner on CNBC right now at some sort of townhall meeting. I guess they decided to invite only people who were preppy and dainty since that's all I see. It'd be cool if they held one of these in a place where people were chewing tobacco and spitting at the dude. That'd be cool and I'd watch that, this is boring and they keep saying the same things over and over again. It's kinda like ball players, when they get asked what its like to hit a key home run, they always say the same thing. Like in Bull Durham, one of the funniest films ever, when Tim Robbins character is taught how to answer questions by the press.

The stock market should be ok through months end with Window Dressing acting as a cushion and support under the market. ANY gap down these days clearly has to be bought until proven otherwise. Today the market proved that out.

I also think you need to really watch the biotech sector, our DNDN is rocking, and I bought CHTP on its heels and held it.

Right now the futures are down about 3 pts on the ES (S & P futures), I'm long and I'm hoping we gap down without news so I can add and just use the 10 am rule for stops. I just don't think you can short here for more then a short trade, a very short one. End of this month is a HUGE deal and fund managers who aren't participating should be piling up the momo stocks to try to show they are smart.

We'll see, but I would continue to trade this market the way we have up til now, look for dips to get in, don't get shaken out, set stops, make sure you are using proper money management and hopefully get some Ka-chingos!

Thanks all for the well wishes from all, I missed ya all as well. It's been tough getting smashed in the head and being thrown off balance. The irony is, the only thing I'm doing rather normally is trading, everything else is a bit harder then usual. I'm rain man trader - sorta like booyah head I guess you could say - buy, buy, buy, sell,sell,sell,,,,



Password = kachingos

I'll try to post a blog tonight, thank you all for the insane amount of requests and well wishes!