I wish I could stop being a trader for a little while and just take a deep breath and just buy $1.000,000 worth of puts on the brokers, the banks, and tech for like Sept. of ghis year. There's simply no shot that by then the market isn't making new lows, and it could get beyond ugly if/when a few banks go under, which they unfortunately will. Citi is trading like they could be in trouble. Could Citi go under? I don't think so, but I wouldn't be shocked by it either. These banks are so loaned to the hilt, I read that Student loan defaults are through the roof. If people can't pay their student loans, they certainly can't pay their mortgages. I had a dream, GS is below $100 this year. I think $75 is realistic on GS in 2008. GOOG has already started to crack, it'll be less than $200 by year end. #1 rule of investors? They always underestimate the problems and potential downside and they always overshoot the upside. I can't believe that Bernanke is still preaching that we'll avoid a recession. If we're not in a recession already, then what do you call it? There are now BLOCKS and BLOCKS of empty retail space on BROADWAY on the Upper West side. Not just a few, but literally whole blocks. The notion that this could possibly be a short lived thing is so preposterous it's simply outrageous.
This from the WSJ tonight -
Dealers having difficulty selling variable-rate demand notes - WSJ
The Wall Street Journal reports a new round of higher debt costs confronts some states and cities as another part of the credit markets runs into trouble. This time, the culprits are variable-rate demand notes. And banks that guarantee they will act as buyers of last resort face something they never expected -- having to purchase many of them at once. Variable-rate demand notes let issuers borrow for long periods -- but at short-term interest rates. Like auction-rate securities, interest payments adjust on a weekly or even daily basis. The difference is that for variable-rate demand notes, securities firms sell the debt at whatever interest rate meets the market's demand. The problem: Just like many issuers of auction-rate securities whose interest costs soared after auctions for some of their debt failed, an increasing number of municipalities are being hit with sharply higher interest on their variable-rate demand notes because dealers of the debt are having trouble selling it. Last week, rates on $300 mln of California's variable-rate demand notes rose to 8.25% from 2% the previous week. "This is an amazing confluence of problems that no one expected to happen," California Deputy Treasurer Paul Rosenstiel said. "The entire floating-rate [municipal bond] market is in disarray," said Michael J. Marz, vice chairman at First Southwest Co., a Dallas financial adviser to governments and municipalities. With variable-rate demand notes, securities firms unable to sell the debt -- as has been happening for the past couple of months -- have the right to essentially turn the bonds over to a bank that has guaranteed to buy them. When the backstop banks buy the bonds, the debt turns into so-called bank bonds. The interest payment rises to the prime rate - or an amount even higher than the prime rate, now 6%.
LOOK people, it's time to get REAL. Wishful thinking is not going to protect you, or make you money in the market. This crisis, and it is indeed a crisis, is going to get a LOT worse. Cutting rates, giving $600 checks out is NOT the answer. We are going to washout in a big way and then at some point in the next 2 - 4 years find a real bottom. The notion that we have "bottomed" is, and I am repeating myself because it is so completely ludicrous, well, it is - LUDICROUS! And, for those of you who watch the Fed speak and say it'll be fine and believe it, let me ask you something - do you think the Fed would #1 know if that was true. #2 say the truth in an election year when the incumbant party surely will get crushed if things completely fall apart and they hired you in the first place #3 - the saying "don't shoot the messenger" applies here. NO Fed Chief wants to be on the hook for the impending financial market crisis. Housing stocks have rien nicely lately, if you own them I'd suggest selling or at least protecting yourself with puts to avoid a cracking when they get crushed.
In the meantimee, the GAPS have been AWESOME, today was another day the market gapped down and then rocked before settling back late day to be virtually flat.
Let's rock on Thursday!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Michael Parness
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Down da drainnnnnn!
Well, once again, like a broken profitable record I can safely say that fading the open in this market is the best strategy ever. We opened higher and then quickly sold off and closed near the lows of the day! The RUT was over 24 points lower from High of the day! That's a HUGE reversal and one we caught nicely!
I'm beat, but I expect us to get the same fade off the open today. I thnk any really big move up will have to be on a gap down or intraday reversal. It seems unlikely that they'd buy the open and keep piling in.
In the meantime, keep TrADING and keep RULING111
Rock on.
Michael "Waxie" Parness
I'm beat, but I expect us to get the same fade off the open today. I thnk any really big move up will have to be on a gap down or intraday reversal. It seems unlikely that they'd buy the open and keep piling in.
In the meantime, keep TrADING and keep RULING111
Rock on.
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Rockin'!
Once again fading da gaps proved to be a HUGELY profitable trade on Wednesday!
The market gapped down and then reversed and mounted a very nice rally which we caught. SWEEEEETTTT!
Today we look set to open up. It'll be an interesting day because I would expect us to fade the gap a bit, but then we get actually get a nice two day rally. We shall see soon enough. I'm hoping we get the S & P's to remount 1400s because I think that'll set up a really nice short in the not to distant future that will have us retesting the yearly lows, and probably busting through them to the downside. In the meantime we'll just keep tracking the volatility and relying on the market to give us our daily Ka-chingos!
Rock on! Watch the solar sector today for some trades. Use 10 am rules on that sector in particular as I think if we do get some further upside here they may play catch up. FSLR, SPWR, etc.
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
The market gapped down and then reversed and mounted a very nice rally which we caught. SWEEEEETTTT!
Today we look set to open up. It'll be an interesting day because I would expect us to fade the gap a bit, but then we get actually get a nice two day rally. We shall see soon enough. I'm hoping we get the S & P's to remount 1400s because I think that'll set up a really nice short in the not to distant future that will have us retesting the yearly lows, and probably busting through them to the downside. In the meantime we'll just keep tracking the volatility and relying on the market to give us our daily Ka-chingos!
Rock on! Watch the solar sector today for some trades. Use 10 am rules on that sector in particular as I think if we do get some further upside here they may play catch up. FSLR, SPWR, etc.
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
FADE DA GAPS, BABY!
OK, so Tuesday was a nice way to return from Presidents Day (should we even celebrate that holidays given the state of our current, well, ah, current President "dilemma"?
Market had a HUGE gap up, over 1% all around and yet once again the selling intensified and all around we finished RED, with volume to the downside CRUSHING volume to the upside by a HUGE margin. Folks, this market is a traders dream and you really need to be taking advantage of it by trading it and fading it. We couldn't get a better setup then gapping up on NO NEWS in a big way! We shorted BIDU for over $11. We shorted FNM for $1. We shorted the hell out of the open and we ROCKED it!
SO, where does that leave us for Wednesday? Well, I think we get a really nice move and trend day Wednesday. It looks like we'll gap down and so hopefully we get a nice selloff and then can launch a super rally that may have some legs here. It might be wishful thinking however. If we can't reverse a nice gap down and we close near our lows then I think the market may head right back to the recent lows before trying to form a double bottom.
Brokers are still cracking and I think its important to heed the fact that GS in particular could not remotely hold its gap up, even after posting an impressive gain on Friday which seemed that it might be a reversal for a move higher. I think GS sees $120s or lower at some pt this year. I think anyone calling for a real bottom, not a trading bottom, is just a snake oil salesman. There is no shot we have anywhere near a bottom, its going to get MUCH MUCH worse in the long run. DOW will be under 10,000 in the next 12 - 18 months with my guess it happens THIS YEAR! That would mark one of the worst years in market history.
Watch BIDU for further downside, this thing looks headed for sub-$200 near term. I'd also watch the $RUT.X. I think it'll be below $600 within 90 days. Yes, I am bearish, but I do see us getting a nice trading rally here shortly as well. That will then set up a VERY easy shorting opp. I hope I'm right so we can catch it both ways.
In the meantime, keep shorting FNM on any non-news related gap up, its pretty easy money at this point it appears if you play that. That stock is headed for sub-$10 this year. There's just no reason to own the financials here, folks, don't get fooled into the notion that the bottom is in. It ain't, even if we do get a relief rally here this week.
See ya tomorrow night, make sure you sign up for a 2 week free trial @ www.trendfund.com
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Market had a HUGE gap up, over 1% all around and yet once again the selling intensified and all around we finished RED, with volume to the downside CRUSHING volume to the upside by a HUGE margin. Folks, this market is a traders dream and you really need to be taking advantage of it by trading it and fading it. We couldn't get a better setup then gapping up on NO NEWS in a big way! We shorted BIDU for over $11. We shorted FNM for $1. We shorted the hell out of the open and we ROCKED it!
SO, where does that leave us for Wednesday? Well, I think we get a really nice move and trend day Wednesday. It looks like we'll gap down and so hopefully we get a nice selloff and then can launch a super rally that may have some legs here. It might be wishful thinking however. If we can't reverse a nice gap down and we close near our lows then I think the market may head right back to the recent lows before trying to form a double bottom.
Brokers are still cracking and I think its important to heed the fact that GS in particular could not remotely hold its gap up, even after posting an impressive gain on Friday which seemed that it might be a reversal for a move higher. I think GS sees $120s or lower at some pt this year. I think anyone calling for a real bottom, not a trading bottom, is just a snake oil salesman. There is no shot we have anywhere near a bottom, its going to get MUCH MUCH worse in the long run. DOW will be under 10,000 in the next 12 - 18 months with my guess it happens THIS YEAR! That would mark one of the worst years in market history.
Watch BIDU for further downside, this thing looks headed for sub-$200 near term. I'd also watch the $RUT.X. I think it'll be below $600 within 90 days. Yes, I am bearish, but I do see us getting a nice trading rally here shortly as well. That will then set up a VERY easy shorting opp. I hope I'm right so we can catch it both ways.
In the meantime, keep shorting FNM on any non-news related gap up, its pretty easy money at this point it appears if you play that. That stock is headed for sub-$10 this year. There's just no reason to own the financials here, folks, don't get fooled into the notion that the bottom is in. It ain't, even if we do get a relief rally here this week.
See ya tomorrow night, make sure you sign up for a 2 week free trial @ www.trendfund.com
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Sunday, February 17, 2008
BACK IN THE SADDLE
OK, I hate to sound like a cliche, but due to popular demand, I'm BADK!
I'll hopefully be able to keep up a daily blog here. Please feel free to comment. Though I'm often the only one talking to me, myself and I, its nice to once in a while have someone else in the universe to hear from.
This coming week should be very volatile. I think we're likely to stay in a range here. While I am longer term VERY VERY bearish, short and intermediate term I think we chop around and trade within ga range of let's say 11,400 to 12,800. I do think we should hit 13,000 on the DOW before we crash and burn so I'm not shorting with abandon - YET! I am putting together a new "Grinch" type list with 10 stocks that I believe will fall at least 50 - 75% in the next 12 - 18 months (probably sooner). While I am sure there will be oogles of money made on the LONG side, I think ultimately in 2008 being SHORT is where you will make the bulk of your money. Sorry I'm such a bummer, but I call it as I see it!
We're gearing up for the WORLD SERIES OF TRADING Las Vegas seminar March 9th to 20th. I urge you all to attend, period. Two weeks of live trading, while there is no guarentee of it, we've never had a Live trading seminar where most prople didn't completely kick butt and even cover the seminar costs PLUS a bundle! The last two seminars I made $121,000 in 2 days with a portfolio of roughly $75,000 in buying power and I made 40% on a $50,000 port in Sept. at our NJ seminar in two weeks of live trading. No joke, we rock live!
Meanwhile, around the globe, shocking as it is Clemens appears to have been caught with his hand in the lying cookie jar! They should strip the Yankees of the 2000 World Series, clearly my Mets would have won if all the Yanks we're abusing those things! Right? OK, maybe not, but still we should get it!
Whichever way we open Monday, if its decent gap up or down I suspec it'll make a very nice fade. We'll see. More later. Happy Presidents Day! Prepare to rock this week, I know I am!!!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
I'll hopefully be able to keep up a daily blog here. Please feel free to comment. Though I'm often the only one talking to me, myself and I, its nice to once in a while have someone else in the universe to hear from.
This coming week should be very volatile. I think we're likely to stay in a range here. While I am longer term VERY VERY bearish, short and intermediate term I think we chop around and trade within ga range of let's say 11,400 to 12,800. I do think we should hit 13,000 on the DOW before we crash and burn so I'm not shorting with abandon - YET! I am putting together a new "Grinch" type list with 10 stocks that I believe will fall at least 50 - 75% in the next 12 - 18 months (probably sooner). While I am sure there will be oogles of money made on the LONG side, I think ultimately in 2008 being SHORT is where you will make the bulk of your money. Sorry I'm such a bummer, but I call it as I see it!
We're gearing up for the WORLD SERIES OF TRADING Las Vegas seminar March 9th to 20th. I urge you all to attend, period. Two weeks of live trading, while there is no guarentee of it, we've never had a Live trading seminar where most prople didn't completely kick butt and even cover the seminar costs PLUS a bundle! The last two seminars I made $121,000 in 2 days with a portfolio of roughly $75,000 in buying power and I made 40% on a $50,000 port in Sept. at our NJ seminar in two weeks of live trading. No joke, we rock live!
Meanwhile, around the globe, shocking as it is Clemens appears to have been caught with his hand in the lying cookie jar! They should strip the Yankees of the 2000 World Series, clearly my Mets would have won if all the Yanks we're abusing those things! Right? OK, maybe not, but still we should get it!
Whichever way we open Monday, if its decent gap up or down I suspec it'll make a very nice fade. We'll see. More later. Happy Presidents Day! Prepare to rock this week, I know I am!!!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
BOUNCE, LAGGARDS and Ka-chingos!
VERY VERY nice trading day! We caught that big move down in the am, riding POT, BG, MOS, CFC down. BIG moves all! And, then we caught the mother of all bounces midday! What's ironic is, just as we started to bounce and I saw the squeeze coming, CNBC guys were saying how we can't get any rallies and we need to bottom, etc. Ah, when ya least expect it...ka-chingo!
We caught, and I kid you not - BIDU for $20 (you read correctly), FSLR for $14s.
Yes, we had a couple of losers - LEH short, but a pretty SICK day all around! I made a lot of ka-chingos on Wednesday, my best day of the New Year by far! VERY VERY happy Waxieeeee! Doing the WAXIE JIG!
So, what from here? Well, I hope we gap down, I think its very buyable on no news. It's rare when a reversal day is a one day wonder. Usually shorts have to cover for at least another day and often 2 or 3 even. And, what I am now looking for are LAGGARDS!
I called SOLF calls late day and I think it has a very good shot to get $30s tomorrow or Friday. What usually happens is that the 1st squeeze day the main MOMO stocks motor (GOOG, BIDU, FSLR, etc) and the smaller momo names (SOLF, FSIN, CHNR, EDU, etc) usually take til the next days strength to go. A gap down would be a treasure as long as there is no bad news gapping us (and even then usually we'll go green at some pt the next day after a day like today).
One thing to keep in mind, early on it could be very VERY choppy because investors will still be leery to just jump in and buy stuff that's been getting killed lately. And, they are right. This was a BEAR MARKET rally and they tend to be swift, unexpected and volatile. They also are usually just a blip until we go back down to new lows. I suspect that will happen anyway, but I think we could get a decent size bounce first and again, I like some small ones here now. I can't give away all the juice for free, so why don't you FINALLY sign up for our free 2 week trial, a $200+ value for FREE.
Go to;www.trendfund.com and sign up on the website for the free trial.
I'm too beat to talk to you about my other issues, so it'll have to wait til tomorrow night!
Til then, happy trading and RULEEEEEE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
We caught, and I kid you not - BIDU for $20 (you read correctly), FSLR for $14s.
Yes, we had a couple of losers - LEH short, but a pretty SICK day all around! I made a lot of ka-chingos on Wednesday, my best day of the New Year by far! VERY VERY happy Waxieeeee! Doing the WAXIE JIG!
So, what from here? Well, I hope we gap down, I think its very buyable on no news. It's rare when a reversal day is a one day wonder. Usually shorts have to cover for at least another day and often 2 or 3 even. And, what I am now looking for are LAGGARDS!
I called SOLF calls late day and I think it has a very good shot to get $30s tomorrow or Friday. What usually happens is that the 1st squeeze day the main MOMO stocks motor (GOOG, BIDU, FSLR, etc) and the smaller momo names (SOLF, FSIN, CHNR, EDU, etc) usually take til the next days strength to go. A gap down would be a treasure as long as there is no bad news gapping us (and even then usually we'll go green at some pt the next day after a day like today).
One thing to keep in mind, early on it could be very VERY choppy because investors will still be leery to just jump in and buy stuff that's been getting killed lately. And, they are right. This was a BEAR MARKET rally and they tend to be swift, unexpected and volatile. They also are usually just a blip until we go back down to new lows. I suspect that will happen anyway, but I think we could get a decent size bounce first and again, I like some small ones here now. I can't give away all the juice for free, so why don't you FINALLY sign up for our free 2 week trial, a $200+ value for FREE.
Go to;www.trendfund.com and sign up on the website for the free trial.
I'm too beat to talk to you about my other issues, so it'll have to wait til tomorrow night!
Til then, happy trading and RULEEEEEE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
NEW HAMPSHIRE, CRYING POLITICIANS and COUNTRY WIDE...
Hilary wins!!! McCain wins!!!
Eh, whatever. Does anyone really care that much? Seriously, I don't know about you, but I really could give a rats buttocks. It's amazing that there was like 3 hours of news coverage yesterday about Hilary Clinton crying and getting choked up during a Q & A. Between that and Clemens playing that stupid tape you would think that there wasn't going on in the rest of the world that was important. Jeez louise. Meanwhile the market collapsed once again as it continues to deflate toward the 11,000s. The Russell 3000 is about to become the Russell "help me" at this point. Technology is just getting SMOKED. Financials, ah financials!
Anyone who thinks we have reached a real bottom is NUTS. CFC seems like its headed to ENRONVILLE = zero. I remember the CEO of Enron saying its all ok right before company went completely under. It just feels like the end is near for this beast. GS looks like $175 sure thing. I see no reason to step in front of this train wreck for more than a bounce intraday. Today we looked like we were going to motor into the close. It played out exactly as I had posted it would last night. I even gave you some ka-chingos here! But, then T said things were awful and that tanked us even worse. The worst is yet to come folks and I suggest that if you are not trading, you will be bleeding out of every orafice of your body. You will be crying. Do yourself a favor and LEARN TO EARN!
TRADE WITH USSSS!!! If you think that this market will be up at years end, I think you are on crack. This is the worst start to a year EVER in the history of the stock market. I think the worst hasn't nearly been felt. Having said that, we should get a capitulary move shortly. We almost had one today. You'll see large volume selloff and quick move down - violently bloody and that will be a good entry for a trend UP day at that point. It won't last long, but it'll give a reprieve. In the meantime, I would trade INTRADAY on the long side ONLY here. No need to try to catch some falling knives, folks. They still cut DEEP!
See ya tomorrow! RULE! CFC to zero, baby!!!
Rock on and rock hard
Eh, whatever. Does anyone really care that much? Seriously, I don't know about you, but I really could give a rats buttocks. It's amazing that there was like 3 hours of news coverage yesterday about Hilary Clinton crying and getting choked up during a Q & A. Between that and Clemens playing that stupid tape you would think that there wasn't going on in the rest of the world that was important. Jeez louise. Meanwhile the market collapsed once again as it continues to deflate toward the 11,000s. The Russell 3000 is about to become the Russell "help me" at this point. Technology is just getting SMOKED. Financials, ah financials!
Anyone who thinks we have reached a real bottom is NUTS. CFC seems like its headed to ENRONVILLE = zero. I remember the CEO of Enron saying its all ok right before company went completely under. It just feels like the end is near for this beast. GS looks like $175 sure thing. I see no reason to step in front of this train wreck for more than a bounce intraday. Today we looked like we were going to motor into the close. It played out exactly as I had posted it would last night. I even gave you some ka-chingos here! But, then T said things were awful and that tanked us even worse. The worst is yet to come folks and I suggest that if you are not trading, you will be bleeding out of every orafice of your body. You will be crying. Do yourself a favor and LEARN TO EARN!
TRADE WITH USSSS!!! If you think that this market will be up at years end, I think you are on crack. This is the worst start to a year EVER in the history of the stock market. I think the worst hasn't nearly been felt. Having said that, we should get a capitulary move shortly. We almost had one today. You'll see large volume selloff and quick move down - violently bloody and that will be a good entry for a trend UP day at that point. It won't last long, but it'll give a reprieve. In the meantime, I would trade INTRADAY on the long side ONLY here. No need to try to catch some falling knives, folks. They still cut DEEP!
See ya tomorrow! RULE! CFC to zero, baby!!!
Rock on and rock hard
Monday, January 07, 2008
Here's look at ya RECESSION!
OK, dudes, if you read yesterdays post I said we gotta fade any gap ups, see if we capitulate and then hop on board. Well, we did and we did, then we redied and then we bounced into the close. TOMORROW (Tuesday) I think there is a very good shot we have a nice up day. Best case scenario is that we gap DOWN because I think if we do you should be able to buy with BOTH FISTS! As that lunkerhead Booyah-head says - BUY BUY BUY!
Do you guys see what The Rocket is doing? Why don't these grown men stop it already and move on. Seriously, since no one seems to have definative proof, they are just drawing more attention to the whole dang thing.
Or, better yet, I'd love the see the pay-per-view RAW Wrestling between the two of them - WINNER TAKES ALL...steroids!
Frankly, isn't it MLB fault? I mean, they didn't police their own house and they had to have known. Did anyone see the All Star game in like what, 2002 or something when Sosa and McGwire were hitting 550 foot HR in the Home Run Derby? (I don't remember the year, and I'm not looking it up). I mean, these guys were belting HRs that are still orbiting the earth not ready to come down. I think that is what Chicken Little was referring to when he said that "The sky is falling, the sky is falling!"
EVERYONE knew, and everyone turned a blind eye. Kinda like the sub-prime crisis, right? I mean ,for years experts and laypeople have been saying that loaning non-qualified buyers mortgage money, with very little if any down payments, and with a 5 year ARMS deal HAD TO END BADLY!
And it did! This isn't even the ole hindsight is 20/20 folks, this is just something that anyone with half a brain knew about.
Speaking of which, have we fixed the damn dam's in New Orleans yet? We knew that was gonna happen to and we still did nothin' about it.
Speaking of which, tomorrow is the New Hampshire caucus. Wow, I am SO excited. If we had any dumber candidates we'd be swimming in a cess pool of dumbness.I really don't understand, there are so many intelligent people in our country and yet we have some really big dummies who we have to choose from.
It's kinda like being the smartest adult in a second grade class. And, frankly, I'd take most second graders over these dudes and dudess any day of the week in an IQ test.
Yes, I know, I'm a horrible person. It's ok, I've grown used to it and I kinda like myself despite it all. I get bashed all the time, so paybacks a beeatch.
Check out the SOLAR's here if we do bounce, I like FSLR, SPWR and STP. I also think GOOG should run a bit if it holds above $650 Tuesday after 10 am. We shall see. Keep your stops set if you play da game and if ya don't, then remember to feed the pigeons, cause they need to eat, too!
Did I tell you guys about my online dating experiences? I will tell you that there are some very funny people out there in da world. OK, last seminar I did people asked me what sites I was on. I'm not going to say. You'll never find me anyway, I post my brother's photo as my own. He's not as good looking, but he's a lot more stable. I figure I'll try to chanel his issues, and maybe he'll chanel my commitment phobic issues.
This is the thing. I have recently realized this, so it's good, right? I mean, they say 80% of the battle is being concious of it. Or, is it 8%. Shoot, I don't recall.
OK, so here is what I realized. I'm a trader. I'm a filmmaker. These things are, by definition, always in some sort of flux, or have definate end dates. Therefore, it is logical to draw the conclusion that I would have issues with commitment. And, what sucks about these online services is that that's one of the first questions I get asked. "Why are you single?"
And, "How come you gots two kids without ever being married?"
Why am I single? Why? In NYC the real question for the majority is "Why are you NOT single?" In a city where Sex in the City is every single woman's favorite show (and if you are married to someone who says it's their favorite show then she's probably straying dude, hate to break it to ya!) you shouldn't have to ask why someone is single.
The cool thing is, chances are if they are out with me, they have the same freakin' issues!
There are some very telling clues about whether someone is capable of committing. But, that's for another post, another day. I have a very recent killer story about a date I went on. More later.
So, as a trader, and a recovering commitment-phobe "Hi, my name is Waxie and I have commitment issues" Hi Waxie! I'm starting a 12 step program for other people just like me. I figure I can turn it into a dating site and charge nice money. Ka-chingo!
So, as I was saying before I got a bit tangential, as a trader I like to use the hit and run methodology. I think in this market you MUST be nimble. Just like Jack - Trader be nimble, trader be quick, trader jumped into the money pit!
I love how every day these pundits talk about volatility as though its a bad thing. As though it's like a disease "oh, the volatility is dreadful, you should be careful!" Really? Why? Today we had AAPL calls and they went for $2 in about 1/2 an hour. We had GS for $2. Yeah, we get our share of losers, but the bottom line is, if you are like Jack, you should be able to jump into your own money pit!
Now, back to my dating experiences. OK, I will tell you one story. Here goes -
I go out on this blind date. I was told that she was a hottie (whatever), very very bright (a must), funny (ditto) and sane (ditto ditto). OK, so we talk on the phone for an hour, have very nice conversation and we decide to go out to dinner. I ask her what she likes to eat, she says anything. My almost certain reaction is - SUSHI! Waxie LOVE SUSHI!
OK, so she says YES, but then about five minutes later says she prefers to go for something else. I suggest Italian - done deal.
I arrive, she's waiting there at bar. Wow, she is a hottie. An attractive blind date, coolio Mo-D.
So we sit down, and we have a very cool and very interesting conversation. And, she is FUNNY! I'm like ok, cool. I'm already projecting that there could be some sparks flying. 45 minutes, we're eating, the food is good, we're still laughing. Wow, ok. And then...minute 46 she says to me -
"I have to confess (ought oh), that the reason why I said I didn't want to go to eat sushi is because I thought I might be pregnant."
Wow, ok now, I know I have a very powerful presence and a reputation that extends to even foreign countries at this point, but I have never gotten a woman pregnant at a dinner table. Of that I am (almost) certain.
CHECK PLEASE! And, then to top it off, she says that she's not really into the guy and she wants to see me again. AND< when I put her in a cab (I had my car, but no ride was offered by this gentleman for this one)
she goes to kiss me. Now, I know guys who would find this situation intriguing. I'm not one of them. Although, in hindsight the upside was it woulda been safe, right? Hehe. Wheeeee!
And so it goes...and so it is now online! Hehe. Hope no one is offended, but I am who I am, don't ask me ta change cause it ain't gonna happen!
Peace out everyone, and let's kick some steroid induced market butt tomorrow!
RULE!
Michael "WAXIE" Parness
And, remember, it's easy to sign up for the FREE two-week trial to www.trendfund.com
Do you guys see what The Rocket is doing? Why don't these grown men stop it already and move on. Seriously, since no one seems to have definative proof, they are just drawing more attention to the whole dang thing.
Or, better yet, I'd love the see the pay-per-view RAW Wrestling between the two of them - WINNER TAKES ALL...steroids!
Frankly, isn't it MLB fault? I mean, they didn't police their own house and they had to have known. Did anyone see the All Star game in like what, 2002 or something when Sosa and McGwire were hitting 550 foot HR in the Home Run Derby? (I don't remember the year, and I'm not looking it up). I mean, these guys were belting HRs that are still orbiting the earth not ready to come down. I think that is what Chicken Little was referring to when he said that "The sky is falling, the sky is falling!"
EVERYONE knew, and everyone turned a blind eye. Kinda like the sub-prime crisis, right? I mean ,for years experts and laypeople have been saying that loaning non-qualified buyers mortgage money, with very little if any down payments, and with a 5 year ARMS deal HAD TO END BADLY!
And it did! This isn't even the ole hindsight is 20/20 folks, this is just something that anyone with half a brain knew about.
Speaking of which, have we fixed the damn dam's in New Orleans yet? We knew that was gonna happen to and we still did nothin' about it.
Speaking of which, tomorrow is the New Hampshire caucus. Wow, I am SO excited. If we had any dumber candidates we'd be swimming in a cess pool of dumbness.I really don't understand, there are so many intelligent people in our country and yet we have some really big dummies who we have to choose from.
It's kinda like being the smartest adult in a second grade class. And, frankly, I'd take most second graders over these dudes and dudess any day of the week in an IQ test.
Yes, I know, I'm a horrible person. It's ok, I've grown used to it and I kinda like myself despite it all. I get bashed all the time, so paybacks a beeatch.
Check out the SOLAR's here if we do bounce, I like FSLR, SPWR and STP. I also think GOOG should run a bit if it holds above $650 Tuesday after 10 am. We shall see. Keep your stops set if you play da game and if ya don't, then remember to feed the pigeons, cause they need to eat, too!
Did I tell you guys about my online dating experiences? I will tell you that there are some very funny people out there in da world. OK, last seminar I did people asked me what sites I was on. I'm not going to say. You'll never find me anyway, I post my brother's photo as my own. He's not as good looking, but he's a lot more stable. I figure I'll try to chanel his issues, and maybe he'll chanel my commitment phobic issues.
This is the thing. I have recently realized this, so it's good, right? I mean, they say 80% of the battle is being concious of it. Or, is it 8%. Shoot, I don't recall.
OK, so here is what I realized. I'm a trader. I'm a filmmaker. These things are, by definition, always in some sort of flux, or have definate end dates. Therefore, it is logical to draw the conclusion that I would have issues with commitment. And, what sucks about these online services is that that's one of the first questions I get asked. "Why are you single?"
And, "How come you gots two kids without ever being married?"
Why am I single? Why? In NYC the real question for the majority is "Why are you NOT single?" In a city where Sex in the City is every single woman's favorite show (and if you are married to someone who says it's their favorite show then she's probably straying dude, hate to break it to ya!) you shouldn't have to ask why someone is single.
The cool thing is, chances are if they are out with me, they have the same freakin' issues!
There are some very telling clues about whether someone is capable of committing. But, that's for another post, another day. I have a very recent killer story about a date I went on. More later.
So, as a trader, and a recovering commitment-phobe "Hi, my name is Waxie and I have commitment issues" Hi Waxie! I'm starting a 12 step program for other people just like me. I figure I can turn it into a dating site and charge nice money. Ka-chingo!
So, as I was saying before I got a bit tangential, as a trader I like to use the hit and run methodology. I think in this market you MUST be nimble. Just like Jack - Trader be nimble, trader be quick, trader jumped into the money pit!
I love how every day these pundits talk about volatility as though its a bad thing. As though it's like a disease "oh, the volatility is dreadful, you should be careful!" Really? Why? Today we had AAPL calls and they went for $2 in about 1/2 an hour. We had GS for $2. Yeah, we get our share of losers, but the bottom line is, if you are like Jack, you should be able to jump into your own money pit!
Now, back to my dating experiences. OK, I will tell you one story. Here goes -
I go out on this blind date. I was told that she was a hottie (whatever), very very bright (a must), funny (ditto) and sane (ditto ditto). OK, so we talk on the phone for an hour, have very nice conversation and we decide to go out to dinner. I ask her what she likes to eat, she says anything. My almost certain reaction is - SUSHI! Waxie LOVE SUSHI!
OK, so she says YES, but then about five minutes later says she prefers to go for something else. I suggest Italian - done deal.
I arrive, she's waiting there at bar. Wow, she is a hottie. An attractive blind date, coolio Mo-D.
So we sit down, and we have a very cool and very interesting conversation. And, she is FUNNY! I'm like ok, cool. I'm already projecting that there could be some sparks flying. 45 minutes, we're eating, the food is good, we're still laughing. Wow, ok. And then...minute 46 she says to me -
"I have to confess (ought oh), that the reason why I said I didn't want to go to eat sushi is because I thought I might be pregnant."
Wow, ok now, I know I have a very powerful presence and a reputation that extends to even foreign countries at this point, but I have never gotten a woman pregnant at a dinner table. Of that I am (almost) certain.
CHECK PLEASE! And, then to top it off, she says that she's not really into the guy and she wants to see me again. AND< when I put her in a cab (I had my car, but no ride was offered by this gentleman for this one)
she goes to kiss me. Now, I know guys who would find this situation intriguing. I'm not one of them. Although, in hindsight the upside was it woulda been safe, right? Hehe. Wheeeee!
And so it goes...and so it is now online! Hehe. Hope no one is offended, but I am who I am, don't ask me ta change cause it ain't gonna happen!
Peace out everyone, and let's kick some steroid induced market butt tomorrow!
RULE!
Michael "WAXIE" Parness
And, remember, it's easy to sign up for the FREE two-week trial to www.trendfund.com
Sunday, January 06, 2008
MONDAY, January 7th, 2008
Today's early action should be interesting. Frankly, if we get a decent size gap either way I think its a worthwhile fade. 10 am rule should also work nicely today. We should get some whipsaw action. I think the best setup would be a gap up, sharp move down with a large volume capitulation and then rocket UP! Will that happen? Well, its a fantasy right now, but I think if we don't get that capitulatory near term move down then we are likely to have trouble sustaining any real upside here. As I write this futures are slightly positive. Flat open is the worst of all worlds and I'd then sit on the sidelines, use 10 am rule and see which way they decide to push us. I think this week should be EXTREMELY volatile and offer PLENTLY OF PROFIT = Ka-chingos!
Make sure if you haven't tried our two week FREE trial, you do so NOW!
And, check back later for some more market insights, and to hear more about my oh-so-complicated existence on the planet us Sea Monkey's call = Aribadershce
Lator gators
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Make sure if you haven't tried our two week FREE trial, you do so NOW!
And, check back later for some more market insights, and to hear more about my oh-so-complicated existence on the planet us Sea Monkey's call = Aribadershce
Lator gators
Michael "Waxie" Parness
MARKET MAYHEM!
In CA there is a hurricane...
In Iraq we are still searching for WMD...
In Iowa a guy who thinks that the reason we have border patrols in New Mexico is to keep Pakistani's out of the US just won a caucus...
In Iowa a gal named Hilary finished third in a race her husband would surely win...
My Nets have won 5 straight...but ain't moving to Brooklyn til 2010!
And, in the stock market all hell is breaking loose, babies!
Once again people's 401K's are fast becoming their 201K's...
And, once again, and as always, our clients are ringin' in the New Year with some ka-chingos nonetheless!
Ya know, I just saw "There Will be Blood". First off, let me say that Daniel Day Lewis is SICK. I mean the guy is just on another level. There are actors and then there is this guy. He's a lock for another Academy Award and if he doesn't win it this year (he should have won for Gangs of New York) then the Academy should keep their day jobs. The dude is Awesome with a capital A!
And, why should you care? Well, the film is about a lot of things, but it has a lot to do with HUBRIS. Hubris and losing sight of what's important in da world, or in anyone's individual world. It's interesting how theme's kinda pop up in my own life depending on what I'm going through personally, and introspectively. I saw a play the other night on Broadway called AUGUST: Osage County. Really good play, well written, well acted and pretty powerful. The premise was far different than There Will be Blood, but there are some similarities me thinks.
When we go into a Bear Market, and we most certainly in one, what usually sinks investors is the notion that the market can't possibly keep going down. It's not most investors fault, it's our culture. It's ingrained in our psyche that the market HAS TO GO UP! Right? I mean, it's our God given right for the market to go straight to the moon, by golly!
I guess that's similar to Huckabee's comments the other day that The Lord made his economic plan. Funny, I didn't know that the Lord had that much free time on his hands, but hey, ya learn something new every day! Yes, I will bash just about anyone and everything at some point. That's my very own hubris! But, if you don't laugh at yourself, then ya just ain't livin' large, I always say!
This market will bounce. It may very well bounce this week upcoming at some point, but I will be shocked if 2008 doesn't see us at least in the 11,000s with a shot to dip below 10,000 if things don't improve in the housing market and the economy slips deeper into a recession (ah, sorry folks, for all the pundits who say that we won't go into one, I have news for ya - WE ALREADY ARE IN A RECESSION!). The real question to me, is just how bad this can possibly get. The thing is, the market will price in a year in advance, so if and when the market feels that we are basically a year away from the economy to turn around, then the market will rally. Of that I am pretty certain. Historically that has been the case, and since we play da TRENDS (they are your FRIENDS, right?), I will stick to that call. I simply do not believe we are a year away from an end. I think that the sub-prime mess and perhaps more importantly the credit crisis still have a HUGE way to go before they are unwound and we turn upwards. I guess we'll see, but I think investors could get really creamed this year (and maybe next). While everyone knows I'm not much of an investor anyway, I believe in actively managing your own account, what I will say is that as a trader it doesn't really matter what the market does. It goes UP, we make money. It goes DOWN, we make money! It reminds me of Raging Bull "if you win, you win, if you lose you win - you can't lose!"
Just remember, trying to pick bottoms is all about HUBRIS. The market does not have go up overall, and trying to pick bottoms can be very dangerous to your financial heath. I prefer to trade this market and wait for a sign (maybe The Lord will give it to me? Hmm)and then jump in for swing longs here. In the meantime, let's make sure to keep our powder dry for that time.
That's what I do as I date women. They mostly short me, so I go LONG and pray!
Prayer doesn't work when I'm dating, it's certainly not gonna work well with the markets! Stick with what you know. I clearly know how to get rejected, so I stick with that. If I didn't get rejected, hell, I wouldn't know what to do! I guess I could go have another baby and find another baby momma. I do well that way, so I could just play to my strenths! Same logic works in the markets! Learn to earn, and earn by learning!
This week upcoming is very important, let's see what shakes out and be ready to rumble when the opps present themselves. Same holds true in all aspects of my life, how bout you?
I'll be updating the blog nearly every day, check back Monday and I will try to give a pick or two here and there to keep things interesting!
In the meantime, go to https://www.trendfund.com/banners/bannerthru.asp?bannerid=855 check us out - FOR FREE! I'll even throw myself in as well, how's that for a bargain!!!
Happy New Year, all!
Michael "WAXIE" Parness
In Iraq we are still searching for WMD...
In Iowa a guy who thinks that the reason we have border patrols in New Mexico is to keep Pakistani's out of the US just won a caucus...
In Iowa a gal named Hilary finished third in a race her husband would surely win...
My Nets have won 5 straight...but ain't moving to Brooklyn til 2010!
And, in the stock market all hell is breaking loose, babies!
Once again people's 401K's are fast becoming their 201K's...
And, once again, and as always, our clients are ringin' in the New Year with some ka-chingos nonetheless!
Ya know, I just saw "There Will be Blood". First off, let me say that Daniel Day Lewis is SICK. I mean the guy is just on another level. There are actors and then there is this guy. He's a lock for another Academy Award and if he doesn't win it this year (he should have won for Gangs of New York) then the Academy should keep their day jobs. The dude is Awesome with a capital A!
And, why should you care? Well, the film is about a lot of things, but it has a lot to do with HUBRIS. Hubris and losing sight of what's important in da world, or in anyone's individual world. It's interesting how theme's kinda pop up in my own life depending on what I'm going through personally, and introspectively. I saw a play the other night on Broadway called AUGUST: Osage County. Really good play, well written, well acted and pretty powerful. The premise was far different than There Will be Blood, but there are some similarities me thinks.
When we go into a Bear Market, and we most certainly in one, what usually sinks investors is the notion that the market can't possibly keep going down. It's not most investors fault, it's our culture. It's ingrained in our psyche that the market HAS TO GO UP! Right? I mean, it's our God given right for the market to go straight to the moon, by golly!
I guess that's similar to Huckabee's comments the other day that The Lord made his economic plan. Funny, I didn't know that the Lord had that much free time on his hands, but hey, ya learn something new every day! Yes, I will bash just about anyone and everything at some point. That's my very own hubris! But, if you don't laugh at yourself, then ya just ain't livin' large, I always say!
This market will bounce. It may very well bounce this week upcoming at some point, but I will be shocked if 2008 doesn't see us at least in the 11,000s with a shot to dip below 10,000 if things don't improve in the housing market and the economy slips deeper into a recession (ah, sorry folks, for all the pundits who say that we won't go into one, I have news for ya - WE ALREADY ARE IN A RECESSION!). The real question to me, is just how bad this can possibly get. The thing is, the market will price in a year in advance, so if and when the market feels that we are basically a year away from the economy to turn around, then the market will rally. Of that I am pretty certain. Historically that has been the case, and since we play da TRENDS (they are your FRIENDS, right?), I will stick to that call. I simply do not believe we are a year away from an end. I think that the sub-prime mess and perhaps more importantly the credit crisis still have a HUGE way to go before they are unwound and we turn upwards. I guess we'll see, but I think investors could get really creamed this year (and maybe next). While everyone knows I'm not much of an investor anyway, I believe in actively managing your own account, what I will say is that as a trader it doesn't really matter what the market does. It goes UP, we make money. It goes DOWN, we make money! It reminds me of Raging Bull "if you win, you win, if you lose you win - you can't lose!"
Just remember, trying to pick bottoms is all about HUBRIS. The market does not have go up overall, and trying to pick bottoms can be very dangerous to your financial heath. I prefer to trade this market and wait for a sign (maybe The Lord will give it to me? Hmm)and then jump in for swing longs here. In the meantime, let's make sure to keep our powder dry for that time.
That's what I do as I date women. They mostly short me, so I go LONG and pray!
Prayer doesn't work when I'm dating, it's certainly not gonna work well with the markets! Stick with what you know. I clearly know how to get rejected, so I stick with that. If I didn't get rejected, hell, I wouldn't know what to do! I guess I could go have another baby and find another baby momma. I do well that way, so I could just play to my strenths! Same logic works in the markets! Learn to earn, and earn by learning!
This week upcoming is very important, let's see what shakes out and be ready to rumble when the opps present themselves. Same holds true in all aspects of my life, how bout you?
I'll be updating the blog nearly every day, check back Monday and I will try to give a pick or two here and there to keep things interesting!
In the meantime, go to https://www.trendfund.com/banners/bannerthru.asp?bannerid=855 check us out - FOR FREE! I'll even throw myself in as well, how's that for a bargain!!!
Happy New Year, all!
Michael "WAXIE" Parness
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